Listen to Smart Baseball: Discussion on New Stats v Old Stats in Podcasts

JACKSONVILLE - Wharton Business Radio consistently has great, relevant content regarding the "data analytics" revolution, which makes sense, they are an Ivy League school.

It puts the "Moneyball Revolution" in proper context and where it should be IMO, less about re-inventing, re-tooling and re-configuring the game ( and I agree with MadBum's recent comments re: this issue, "too may changes" to the game ) and more about just good, old-fashioned decision making within a business context.

If you change the fabric of the game too much, you lose much more than you gain. Introducing a "shot-clock" to a game that has historically been promoted as charming due to the fact that it is not chained to a clock is IMO,  the last shoe to drop. Then we'll see what happens.

MLB had better be dang sure that the number of millennials or other previously disinterested fans gained outnumbers the number of so-called "purists" lost. Put that in your risk-return analysis pipe and smoke it.

Listen to Smart Baseball: Discussion on New Stats v Old Stats from Wharton Business Radio Highlights in Podcasts.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wharton-business-radio-highlights/id1147257638?mt=2&i=1000411580568

Baseball clubs now rely less on subjective scouting reports in hiring players, using data to tell an accurate picture of player performance, past performance and future performance, preventing costly hires. Senior baseball ESPN writer, Keith Law, joins host Dan Loney to discuss how the analytic revolution in baseball is here to stay as outlined in his book "Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats that Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones that are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball" on Knowledge@Wharton.

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Listen to From Wharton Student to Eagles NFL Analyst in Podcasts

JACKSONVILLE - Namita Nadukumar is becoming a rock star in the data analytics world, she has put out some great research and analysis on the NHL Draft, which an NFL team obviously feels could be of value. From what I have read, some would also be of significant value in baseball.

Listen to From Wharton Student to Eagles NFL Analyst from Wharton Business Radio Highlights in Podcasts. 

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wharton-business-radio-highlights/id1147257638?mt=2&i=1000411032094

Namita Nandakumar, Wharton Senior, Teaching Assistant, and Research Analyst, joins hosts Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss her post-graduate move to Quantitative Analyst for the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles this season on Wharton Moneyball.

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Crawford's 9th-inning HR gives Giants 1-0 win over Rockies | The Score

https://www.mlb.com/news/brandon-crawfords-hr-backs-bumgarners-gem/c-283221828

JACKSONVILLE - At least there is finally an admission from Giants players that they have been letting MadBum down as far as run support goes. That has been an observation of mine for quite some time, maybe a year or longer. Part of it is he is often matched up against the other teams ace, the other part...IDK. 

It does go to show that a pitcher's W-L record is one of the more useless stats as far as determining value or worth to a team. Bum just keeps stacking one quality start after another and more often than not lately, the result is either a no-decision or worse, a loss.

At least this one fell into the Win column of the team and that's all that matters.

from thescore.com
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1563826

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) The only thing that would have made Brandon Crawford feel better about his game-ending homer was if it had come early enough to reward Madison Bumgarner with a win.

Crawford homered with one out in the bottom of the ninth after Bumgarner threw seven scoreless innings, giving the San Francisco Giants their fourth straight victory, 1-0 over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night.

''It would have been nice to get him a win,'' Crawford said. ''He pitched well enough that he should have gotten one. ... He looked like vintage Bum out there. He had everything working. His slider has been a lot sharper his last couple of outings, his curveball is looking a lot better and he's locating stuff.''

...

''You always want more,'' Bumgarner said. ''But the spot we're in now is not a bad place to be.''

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Giants MLB Draft Review

JACKSONVILLE - Giants returned to form after Joey Bart with college RHP's here in the fourth and fifth rounds with Blake Rivera - comps to Craig Kimbrell -- a very intriguing pick. They followed with Keaton Winn, another JUCO pick from Iowa Western CC.  Winn was a Mississippi State commit, which is a good endorsement and a multi-sport athlete, so a good pick here. Hilson is another good athlete and an Alabama commit. He was a two-way player in HS but projects more as an OF prospect in the pros, given his other tools (switch-hitter, good bat/foot speed).

If 2-3 of the top five hit for you, normally that would be considered a decent haul. The Giants could hit that mark. The early picks are neatly in line with the pre-draft evaluation, so no great leaps of faith. 

All of the first ten rounders are signed.  

George Bell, 6-4,215 JUCO OF in the 13th round could end up being the sleeper pick of this draft for the Giants.

Jake Wong, RHP, Grand Canyon University

https://youtu.be/V7vH6_UK3Pg

JACKSONVILLE - Wong burst on the scene with a decent showing as a reliever in the Cape Cod League in 2017. He followed that up with a good junior year at Grand Canyon University. He may project more as a reliever than a starter featuring a low to mid 90's FB and a slurvy slider. His command seems to come and go as the innings mount which may lead him down the Kyle Crick path.

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This quote is fairly accurate I'm sure, DePodesta is a pretty sharp guy.

1st Round:   50/50 chance of good MLB player
2nd Round:  25% chance of good MLB player
3rd Round:   12.5% chance of good MLB player
4th Round:   6.25% chance of good MLB player
5th Round:   3.125% chance of good MLB player

6th Round and above, you're looking at greater than 50:1 odds of success. 

It seems like in the first three rounds, you better get some guys who have produced at a fairly high level, fairly consistently. After that, you go shopping for some new toys for your developmental guys that may have some dings on them, but that you have some reason to believe that they can polish up and be made to look like the shiny new toys you drafted earlier.

Giants select Sean Hjelle in 2nd Round

https://youtu.be/IZcdema3dhY


JACKSONVILLE - This pick fit the Giants draft M.O. to a tee. Large, collegiate RHP's attract the Giants attention. They draft a lot of them and throw them against a wall to see how many stick.

I liked the Giants chances of getting him with the second pick early on and he is worth the risk at the spot. Good stuff, room to fill out and he is going to get a lot of leverage and downward plane on the ball due to his size. Plus there shouldn't be a long wait time. You'll know what you have pretty quickly.

I don't think he cracks the Top Ten yet, but perhaps a slot or two below. Rookie ball this year and maybe a High-A slot in the near future. You won't really know what you have until he reaches High-A or Double A. He did compete in the SEC, so good competition should not cause him to wilt.

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A RHP at 6-11, 225 lbs. is rare, but he repeats his mechanics well and his command is good for the size. FB at 91-93 consistently with tops at 95-96. The Giants developmental staff will look to consistently find that 95-96 and probably add a slider/cutter to round out the repertoire. He projects as a mid-rotation starter without the tweeks and a top of the rotation candidate with the adjustments. 

What is Happening with the 2018 Home Runs? | Exploring Baseball Data with R

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2018/05/28/what-is-happening-with-the-2018-home-runs/?

What is Happening with the 2018 Home Runs?

By Jim Albert on May 28, 2018

MLB Report on Home Run Hitting

Last week, Major League Baseball released a report by a scientific committee (including me) that explored the recent increase in home run hitting.    I encourage you to read our report.  One main conclusion was that the 2017 increase in home run hitting was not due to a change in launch angles or exit velocity, but rather a reduction in the drag that results in better carry of the ball.  Given that report, it is interesting to explore what is happening in the 2018 season (through games of May 27).  Are we seeing a similar carry in the balls as we saw in 2017?  I'll perform a brief exploration here.

Home Run Hitting:  2017 and 2018

The first observation is that there is a significant drop in home run hitting this season.   Below I plot the cumulative rate of home runs on balls in play as a function of the date.  Clearly there is a cold-weather effect — the rate of hitting home runs tends to increase through the season — but the 2018 rate is trailing the 2017 rate.  Currently the 2018 rate is under 4.4 % — the 2017 rate at the end of May is about 4.6 %.

Change in Launch Speed and Launch Angle?

Okay, maybe there is a drop in the home run rate due to a change in launch angle or launch velocity.  For each season below, I compute the median launch angle (LA), launch speed (LS) and proportion of batted balls hit in the "red zone" (this is a region of the LA, LS space where most of the home runs are hit).  Interesting, 2018 batters are hitting balls at a higher launch angle, higher launch speed, and a higher rate of balls hit in the red zone.  On the basis of these statistics, I'd expect an increase, not a decrease in the home run rate.




Year LA LS P
2016 10.7 89.7 0.180
2017 11.4 89.2 0.183
2018 12.2 90.2 0.194

Home Run Prediction Based on 2017 and 2016 Model Fits

We know there is a strong relationship between the launch angle, launch speed, and occurrence of home runs.  Given the launch angle and launch speed, I fit a generalized additive model that predicts the probability of a home run.  I fit two models — one to data from the complete 2016 season and a second to data from the complete 2017 season.  Using these models, I can predict the number of home runs hit in the 2018 season (through May 27) using the observed launch angles and launch velocities.  

Here is what I found:

Using 2017 model, I predict there would be 2294 home runs.
Using 2016 model, I predict there would be 2110 home runs.

We've only observed 1759 home runs (through May 27) — this is 500 home runs lower than I would be predict using the 2017 model that predicts home runs on the basis of launch speed and launch angles.  So really the drop in home run hitting that we see in the above graph really is conservative — if we adjust for the actual launch angles and launch speeds, the drop is lower.

Reduced Carry

One way of looking at the 2018 season change is to focus on the probability of a home run given specific values of the launch angle and exit velocity.  Let's focus on the values Launch Angle = 30 degrees, Launch Speed = 100 mpg — these values are in the red zone where there is a good probability of a home run.  Here are the probabilities of hitting a home run using models fit to the 2018, 2017 and 2016 seasons:




2018 2017 2016
0.409 0.568 0.502

Here are the home run probabilities using data from only the first part of the baseball season (through late May)




2018 2017 2016
0.409 0.481 0.420

Note that the 2018 estimated probabilities are significantly lower than the 2017 values, even when you adjust for the early part of the season.  In other words, the balls with a particular launch angle and launch speed are experiencing more drag in 2018, at least relative to 2017.

Summing Up

Home run hitting is fascinating to explore since there are potentially many variables including the hitter, the pitcher, the baseball, the weather, ballpark, etc that affect home run production.  There is clearly a decrease in home run hitting in 2018 and balls hit with specific launch angles and launch speeds are less likely to be home runs.  As I noticed, 2018 hitters are actually hitting with higher launch angles and higher launch speeds, but the balls appear to have more drag.  Of course, the big question is why this is happening, and this motivates further exploration.

Added May 29

It is very possible that this home run drop is due to the colder temperatures in 2018.  

Michel Lichtman tweets:

Through May 12 the average temperature at all MLB stadiums in 2018 was 62.7 degrees F. In 2017, it was 65.8, a difference of 3.1 degrees. Plugging those numbers into Dr. Nathan's trajectory calculator those 3.1 extra degrees in 2017 yields a 1.1 foot extra carry on a 100/30 ball.

The suggestion is that the temperature could explain the drop in 2018 home run production

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By the numbers: Breaking down the 2018 Draft

JACKSONVILLE - Over half of the players drafted come from 5 states (CA,FL,TX, GA, NC), two-thirds come from colleges and universities and over half the players drafted are pitchers. Also noted that the SEC and the ACC remain the two best conferences in college baseball according to the draft data. 

from mlb.com
https://www.mlb.com/news/by-the-numbers-breaking-down-the-2018-draft/c-280156760?tid=167757330

By the numbers: Breaking down the '18 DraftJun. 6th, 2018The 2018 Draft is in the books, with 1,214 players taken over three days and 40 rounds. Now all 30 teams will work to get these players signed before the July 6 deadline. Players came from all over the United States and Canada, from high school and college and from every position on the diamond. Here's a deeper dive into the Class of 2018.

Breakdown by school

There were 805 players from four-year schools taken, or 66.3 percent of all draftees this year. That continues an upward trend. In 2017, it was 63.5 percent; in 2016, 62.9 percent of all those drafted came from four-year colleges. High schoolers made up 24.96 percent of the class, down from 25.7 last year and 25.9 in 2016.

          No School: 2

High School: 303
Junior College: 104
College: 805

Ever since the bonus pool system now in use for the Draft was implemented, teams have been using picks, particularly later on in Day 2 of the Draft, to save money in order to sign players in other areas who require a bonus above pick value. Those discounted players often come in the form of college seniors, and plenty of them were taken this year, 311 to be exact (27 fifth-year seniors). That's actually down a tick from last year, when 328 seniors were selected.

Breakdown by programThe University of Florida made a big splash early on, with three players taken in the top 33 picks: Jonathan India (No. 5 to the Reds), Brady Singer (No. 18 to the Royals) and Jackson Kowar (No. 33 to the Royals). But the five Gators total taken across all 40 rounds wasn't even close to leading the way:

Kentucky: 13
Texas Tech: 11
Arkansas: 11
Wichita State: 11
North Carolina: 10
South Carolina: 10
There were five schools with eight drafted players: Tennessee Tech, Arizona, Louisville, Mississippi and Vanderbilt.

Breakdown by positionPitching, once again, ruled the day. A total of 653 pitchers were taken, or 53.8 percent of all draftees.
RHP: 500
LHP: 153
OF: 215
SS: 100
C: 115
3B: 50
2B: 40
1B: 31
Util: 10

Breakdown by state

It was a relative down year for the state of California in terms of high-end Draft talent, with four players -- high schoolers Cole Winn, Brice Turang and Matt McLain, to go along with Stanford's Nico Hoerner -- being taken in the first round. That didn't keep the state from being the most represented one across all 40 rounds.

California: 187
Florida: 158
Texas: 114
Georgia: 65
North Carolina: 49

The top four is the same as the last two years, with North Carolina supplanting Illinois, the No. 5 state in 2017, this year. There were players from 47 states taken.

You down with PDP?There were 145 players taken who participated in Prospect Development Pipeline events run by Major League Baseball and USA Baseball in 2017-18. That's an increase of close to 117 percent compared to the 2017 Draft. That list includes 13 players taken in the first round (top 30 picks), headlined by No. 6 pick Jarred Kelenic.

Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLB Pipeline. Follow him on Twitter @JonathanMayo and Facebook, and listen to him on the weekly Pipeline Podcast.

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Giants sign 1st-round pick Bart to reported record bonus for position player

SAN FRANCISCO - The more I see and hear about this kid, the more excited I get for his arrival in San Francisco. I know it may be a year or so down the road but the anticipation is buffered somewhat by the "What to do with Buster.. question. The more he catches, the more productivity you lose from his bat, especially in the power department.

The contract and the #2 slot in the draft make the expectations for Bart higher across the board. He has to be an impact pick for this franchise. 

from thescore.com
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1559099

Bart, a catcher who was chosen second overall by San Francisco at the MLB draft earlier in June, officially signed with the Giants on Sunday for a reported $7.025-million signing bonus - the highest up-front bonus ever handed to a drafted position player, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com.

That figure comes in below the $7,494,600 slot value of the second overall pick.

Bart's bonus bests Kris Bryant's former record for a position player - the Chicago Cubshanded him a $6,708,400 bonus in 2013. The overall record belongs to Cincinnati Redspitching prospect Hunter Greene, who inked a $7.23-million deal as last year's second overall pick. Two other picks in the 2017 draft - Atlanta Braves pitcher Kyle Wright, and the Tampa Bay Rays' two-way phenom Brendan McKay - also signed for over $7 million.

The 21-year-old Bart was taken second overall by the Giants following a stellar three-year run at Georgia Tech, and is widely expected to be Buster Posey's successor behind the plate in San Francisco. He was named the Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year in 2018 after slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 homers and 38 RBIs, and also won the conference's batting title. Defensively he was just as stellar, allowing only two passed balls while catching 12 would-be base-stealers in 33 attempts.

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Using Swing Plane to Coach Hitters: a Deeper Look - Driveline Baseball

What has changed from Ted Williams' day is we now have the technology to measure the matching of the hitters swing plane to the angle of incoming pitch. That's it, folks.

from drivelinebaseball.com
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2018/05/using-swing-plane-coach-hitters-deeper-look/

Swing plane is a commonly used, and certainly not a new, idea. Ted Williams famously discusses it in his book The Science of Hitting in 1971 and includes this awesome graphic. Swing plane is incredibly important, but the swing plane problem is much more complex than how it’s being discussed.

Same is in pitching where we now have better tools to measure a pitchers velocity than we did back in Williams day where we measured Bob Fellers fastball by running a motorcycle with a speedometer on a track next to Feller throwing a ball. Real precise measurement tool back then.

BTW, pitchers may not be throwing harder than back in the day as we need to adjust for the inadequacy of the tools being used to measure the speed which reduced the speed number by anywhere from 3-5 MPH. There are certainly more pitchers throwing harder since these days the pitching gurus are entirely focused on throwing harder whereas back in the day the "pitching guru wars" focused on how to throw more efficiently i.e.: with "perfect mechanics".  The focus has shifted.

The advancement in technology has led to a regression in the value, worth and efficiency of most modern day baseball gurus in my opinion, but only time will tell.

Trade Rumors - Giants Close To Signing No. 2 Overall Pick Joey Bart

Giants Close To Signing No. 2 Overall Pick Joey Bart

By Steve Adams | June 13, 2018 at 9:04pm CDT

The Giants are closing in on a deal with No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The former Georgia Tech catcher needs only to pass a physical, per the report, before the deal is official. An announcement from the team could come as soon as Friday, according to Shea, who adds that Bart is expected to sign for a bit south of the $7.494MM value of the No. 2 overall slot.

Download the free Trade Rumors app for iOS or Android.

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Giants refocus Draft picks on college talent

Outside of Bart, Hjelle, Wong, Rivera and maybe 6th round HS OF Patrick Hilson, if the Giants get any return elsewhere in this draft it will be pure gravy. The need a big hit from Joey Bart and some return from Hjelle.

Blake Rivera is intriguing with the comps to Craig Kimbrel. 5th rounder Keaton Winn sounds like a prototypical Giants pick, a big, sturdy, college RHP.

from mlb.com
https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/giants-refocus-draft-picks-on-college-talent/c-280090260

College talent is crux of Giants' Draft haul

Catcher Bart and pitchers Hjelle, Wong, Rivera highlight early-round picks

Jun. 4th, 2018

SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants, traditionally a franchise with a college emphasis in drafting, surprised many last season when they took a trio of high-upside high school prospects in the first three rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft.

• Draft Tracker: Every Giants pick

More coverage ¬--Top 20 profilesBest player from each stateJune 4: Final Mock Draft (June 4)May 31: Mock DraftMay 25: Mock DraftMay 18: Mock DraftMay 11: Mock DraftApril 30: Mock DraftHere's the best Draft prospect at each positionSwitch-pitching catcher & more ambidextrous playersMeet the Draft prospect with an 'elite' curveThe best pick ever at each first-round slot5 teams who have done best in 1st roundHow Mize went from undrafted to fave to go No. 16 possible 1st-rounders to attend Draft on MondayOne Draft "what if" for every club2008 Draft do-over: Posey, Crawford go 1-2QB or not QB: OU's Murray a top MLB Draft talentRevisiting MLB's most notable Draft 'what ifs'The close friendship of two top Draft prospectsHere's how the Yanks landed Judge in '13 DraftNotable names: Clemens, Conine ... Larry King?Breaking down the Top 200 Prospects list3 Top 15 Draft picks from one school? Could happenPedroia, Altuve, Albies ... Madrigal?Possible 1-1 picks duel ... and it lives up to hypeGo behind the scenes as Tigers prepare for DraftLiberatore wins showdown of top Draft prospectsTop 10 prospect performers at 2018 NHSI

But in 2018, San Francisco reestablished its focus on college talent, and pitching in particular, as it used the second overall pick on the mature bat of Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart and took college arms with seven of its next nine picks.

• Giants pick C Bart 2nd, tall righty at No. 45

San Francisco added five prospects ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 200, headlined by Bart (No. 6) and a trio of established college aces in Sean Hjelle (Kentucky, No. 44), Jake Wong (Grand Canyon, No. 72) and Blake Rivera (Wallace State CC, No. 111). The club took No. 94 prospect Brett Hansen, a left-hander from local Pleasanton, Calif., in the 38th round, but he is expected to attend Vanderbilt in the fall.

• Giants dig deep to draft pitching talent

The Giants, who had drafted 19 high schoolers in the previous three Drafts, used 35 of 40 picks on collegiate talent. Ten came from junior colleges, headlined by fourth-rounder Rivera, fifth-rounder Keaton Winn (Iowa Western CC) and 13th-rounder George Bell Jr. (Connors State College), the son of 1987 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner George Bell.

• Giants draft son of former MVP Bell in 13th

In fact, of the five high schoolers selected by the Giants, only Hansen and speedy sixth-round outfielder Patrick Hilson, drafted out of Nettleton HS (Ark.), were from the continental United States.

Shortstop Edison Mora (Round 7), outfielder Bryan Hernandez (Round 18) and catcher Angel Guzman (Round 21), the other three pre-collegians, were all drafted out of Puerto Rico.

Selected with a rare top-five pick, only the fifth in franchise history, Bart gives the Giants the sure bat they coveted (.359 average, 16 homers, 1.103 OPS in 57 games this season) in a Draft light on premier catching talent, and perhaps an heir apparent to the 31-year-old Buster Posey behind the plate, though the Giants are a "best player available" organization that doesn't consider Major League need in its drafting.

"We, as a philosophy here -- and that's throughout our organization here -- we don't draft for need for what our big league club is, because a lot can happen in a one-year period of time or different years," scouting director John Barr said.

San Francisco has built a large chunk of its homegrown core with effective drafting in the middle rounds, with a number of first-rounders (Madison Bumgarner, Chris Stratton, Posey, Joe Panik) complemented by players like second-rounder Andrew Suarez, third-rounder Mac Williamson and fifth-rounders Brandon Belt and Ty Blach.

• SF's 4th-rounder drawing Kimbrel comparisons

With that in mind, the Giants' selections in the top 10 rounds suggest that this could be a class that builds towards the pitching staff of the future, with Hjelle (7-5, 3.44 ERA) and Wong (9-3, 2.81 ERA) flashing potential as rotation arms.

Rivera's curveball might be one of the best pitches in this Draft, and he has drawn comparisons to Craig Kimbrel for his journey, repertoire and mentality despite having started for two years in college. Winn excelled as both a starter and a reliever at the junior college level.

In total, the Giants drafted 23 pitchers, four catchers, seven outfielders and six infielders. According to MLB Pipeline, the Giants' top 30 prospects include 14 pitchers, two catchers, nine outfielders (including five in the top six) and five infielders.

Do-Hyoung Park is a contributor to MLB.com based in the Bay Area.

Read more: San Francisco Giants

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