Valuing Madison Bumgarner

Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses:

Madison Bumgarner’s greatest strength and his greatest weakness are one and the same. His indefatigable tenacity, his will to win and force you to submit to his will is his greatest strength most notably demonstrated during his epic 2014 World Series performance. His analysis that he had “about 200 pitches in his arm” before Game 7 would have drawn guffaws from most teammates, teammates know that is just Madison Bumgarner.

That same quality however has translated into his greatest weakness at times. Not making adjustment in his pitch sequencing to adapt to his lower velocity reading is partly due to his mind-set that he’s going to beat you playing “good old country hardball.” That works until it doesn’t, and you must adjust. The feistiness on the mound, the challenging of hitters for celebrations is part of what makes him great on the one hand, but leaves you shaking your head on the other hand. You must take the good with the bad, and the three rings, which Bumgarner was a large part of every one of them going back to his days as a precocious rookie in 2010 at age 20, demonstrate that there has been much more good than bad.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml

from ( http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=518516 )

Post injuries tends – loss of velocity, stuff on FB - Misses plate more than misses bats at times due to stubbornness to want to win the battle his way – without giving in – rather the best, most economical way. This has led to elevated pitch-counts earlier, reaching 100 pitches around 5/6 inning rather than 7+.

Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance

(from http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=518516  )

Madison Bumgarner has thrown 29,263 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2019, he has relied primarily on his Four seam Fastball (92mph) and Cutter (87mph), also mixing in a Curve (78mph) and Change (85mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (89mph).

Basic description of 2019 pitches compared to other LHP:

His four-seam fastball generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' four seamers, has essentially average velo, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' four seamers and has slightly less natural movement than typical. His cutter generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' cutters, has slightly above average velo, has some natural sink and has strong cutting action. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' curves, has sweeping glove-side movement, has little depth and is slightly harder than usual. His change is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups, is slightly firmer than usual, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some natural sink to it. His sinker (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 2 of them in 2019) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has surprisingly little arm side run, has slightly below average velo and has some natural sinking action.

Contract Value and Performance Forecast:

Similarity Scores -Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml

I looked at Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Jon Lester as LHP contemporaries and comparables. I added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to demonstrate that the Giants have displayed a willingness to pay a premium salary well into the future for free agents based on performance delivered outside of the organization. It would be a difficult PR sell to let a “face of the franchise” iconic figure who has delivered premium results at discounted prices, take his talents to another franchise. 

MLB Salary Distribution and Comparable pitchers to Bumgarner – C. Slavik

To look at the risk of the aging curve working against the extending of a long-term contract, aside from the prior mentioned comparables, is this analysis from Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs.

Pitcher Aging Curves: Starters and Relievers - by Bill Petti  (FanGraphs)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/

To show the differences in starters I decided to plot the career of CC Sabathia against Scott Kazmir. Both were hard-throwing lefties who had great success early in their careers (FIP- in the high 80s and low 90s in their first two seasons), but — as we know — one went on to have a dominant career while the other was out of baseball by 27 years old.

Readers will notice that the ages for the curves differ by pitcher type. This is due to sample sizes at the various age levels. There are more starters younger than 23 who pitch in back-to-back seasons than there are relievers. Similarly, we were able to get enough relievers pitching in their age-37 and age-38 seasons, whereas the sample was just too small to include starters.

As we noted in the introduction to the series, the curves are different in a number of ways. In general, relievers age more dramatically than starters.

Sabathia and Kazmir Aging Curves – Bill Petti (Fan Graphs)

Sabathia Salary History – Baseball Reference.com

Sabathia produced 43.5 WAR through his age 28 year, Bumgarner is comparable at 39 WAR to the completion of 2019, his age 29 year. The Yankees paid for Sabathia from age 29 through age 36, for 8 years @ $190.5M or $23.8125M per year going forward. That is in line with what I project Bumgarner will receive from the Giants. I believe that Bumgarner will age more like Sabathia than Kazmir due to his size, which tends to age and hold up to injuries better, as Sabathia has demonstrated.

Both Sabathia and Bumgarner are legitimate 4 WAR, top of the rotation innings eaters, with the big difference being playoff performance of which Bumgarner is prolific and legendary. Bumgarner will also be chasing legendary pitching greats like Carl Hubbell and Christy Mathewson in various team history categories towards the end of any free-agent contract he signs with them. From a marketing standpoint, this could be a huge potential windfall for the Giants. There will always be considerable risk and angst over the extension of long-term contracts to anyone approaching age 30.

Matt Swartz, also on FanGraphs took a retrospective look at free agent contracts signed between 2007-2012 and found the following general results:

A Retrospective Look at the Price of a Win, by Matt Swartz, February 14, 2012

https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-retrospective-look-at-the-price-of-a-win/

In fact, if you look at the $/WAR paid for players with at least six years of service time throughout the 2007 to 2011 seasons, you’d get the following ratios:

First year of contracts: $4.25 million/WAR

Later years of contracts: $5.5 million/WAR

Combining all contracts: $4.92 million/WAR

3) Free agents who sign elsewhere generally give their new teams less bang for their buck.

The $/rWAR* for all 196 multi-year deals that ended in between 2007 to 2011:

Re-signed players: $4.9 million/WAR

Players who switched teams: $6.8 million/WAR

Difference: 39%

Looking only at deals between two and four years long, I found the following differences:

Re-signed players who signed before the end of the season: $4.6 million/rWAR*

Re-signed players who signed after the end of the season: $6.6 million/rWAR*

Players who switched teams after the season ended: $8.9 million/rWAR*

*Note that rWAR is different (and usually lower — than WAR used at FanGraphs.

Swartz’s results ranging from $4.9M/WAR - $6.8M/WAR is in line with our findings / range of $6.59M – $7.41M per WAR based on the comps listed. The only question then becomes is Bumgarner more a 3.5 WAR guy or a 4.0 WAR guy and how far out do you go on the contract. A 5 to 8-year range, taking Bumgarner to age 34 – 37.

If the team protected against the outer years of an 8-year deal, then I applied the higher $7.41M per WAR per year and assumed a 4.0 WAR average. If the security to the player of an 8-year, effectively making Bumgarner a career Giant, the lower $6.59M per WAR is used and the lesser 3.5 WAR figure 

applied.

Assuming those conditions, the # years and salary range should look something like this:

Length of Contract        Salary Range             Average Salary

5 years @       $150M - $160M         $30.0M – $32.0M     

            6 years @       $165M - $175M         $27.5M – $29.2M

            7 years @       $180M - $190M         $25.7M - $27.1M

            8 years @       $200M - $210M         $25.0M - $26.25M

Charles Slavik is a Sport Management student at University of North Florida, Go Ospreys!! and  is primarily interested in data analytics and baseball. He can be reached at https://twitter.com/theslav1959  or read at The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365   http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/.

Arbitration and negotiation - 2019

I viewed Trevor Bauer’s victory over the Indians as a ground-breaking victory for players. He prevailed over the Indians in 2018 as well and clearly he and his advisers know how to negotiate the process. Bauer followed up the arbitration victory in 2018 with an elevated performance on the field, setting the stage for his follow-up victory in 2019.

2019 MLBTR Arb Tracker:

2018 MLBTR Arb Tracker:

The Baseball Cube Comparable Player comparison: In order to determine whether the outcome was fair, we need to have a good understanding what criteria the arbitrators use to determine outcomes. From Michael D’Ambrosio: https://throughthefencebaseball.com/the-business-of-baseball-mlb-salary-arbitration-101-part-ii/ The criteria to be utilized by the arbitration panel consists of the following: 1. The quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); 2. The length and consistency of his career contribution; 3. The record of the Player’s past compensation; 4. Comparative baseball salaries (of all comparable players, not just one comparable player or a specific group); 5. The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player 6. The recent performance record of the Club, including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. The criteria reviewed by the panel, according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will be “the quality of the player’s contribution to his club during the past season.”   The panel considers the following factors when evaluating the quality of the player’s contribution: ·         Overall performance — statistical analysis; ·         Length and consistency of career; ·         Record of past compensation; ·         Existence of any physical or mental deficiencies; ·         Leadership qualities and public attraction; ·         Recent performance of the club — league standing and attendance; ·         *Comparative baseball salaries. ·         *Evidence of special accomplishment Comparative Baseball Salaries: The panel is provided with a confidential document tabulating the  salaries of all major league players from the prior season. The player salary figures are categorized by years of major league service. The panel considers not merely the salary of a single player or group of players, but the salaries of all comparable players. When considering an arbitration-eligible player who has not accrued five years of major league service time, the panel is required to focus on comparative salary data not exceeding one-year over the player’s annual service group. For example, shortstop Mike Aviles filed for arbitration against the Cleveland Indians on January 15 seeking $3.4 million; Cleveland exchanged a figure of $2.4 million. Aviles has accrued 4.091 years of major league service time. If Aviles and Cleveland do not reach a deal, the arbitration panel would review comparative salaries of players with four years of major league service time and players with five years’ service (within one year of Aviles’s annual service group). Evidence of Special Accomplishment: The player contends for the panel to give “equal relevance” to comparative salaries.  Essentially, because of some special accomplishment or achievement by the player, the player argues the panel should review salaries of similar players without regard to service time. Had catcher Buster Posey, a “Super Two,” not signed a contract with the San Francisco Giants, his representative likely would have raised the special accomplishment argument. Posey’s body of work includes two World Series titles and the 2012 National League Most Valuable Player Award. Because of said achievements, the argument is Posey’s salary figures should be compared to the salaries of players far exceeding his 2.161 years of service time. This is decided by the panel on a case-by-case basis. I sorted out the MLB payroll from Cot’s Baseball Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus) by service time  and summed the total for Right-Handed starting pitchers to meet the criteria the arbitrators use.    2017 Comparative Baseball Salaries: The RHP-s in the 3.148-4.148 service time range averaged $4.878M salary, the average salary for that  service time for all players is approx. $3.6M, so it appears that the $6.525M that team Bauer was asking  for was fair, or perhaps the Indians $5.3M offer was unreasonably low by comparison . The follow up 5.7 WAR that Bauer put out on the field led to his cashing in for $13M in 2019. You can  see by the individual year to year comparisons below that Stroman followed up his 2018 arbitration  disappointment with a 0.2 WAR and settled for a raise to $7.4M in 2019, allowing Odorizzi and Gausman  to pass him up in salary for 2019. These three settled without arbitration in 2019 whereas Bauer says he  is content to go year-to-year and bet on his on the field performances to lead to greater increases.  So far that strategy has worked well for him.   Charles Slavik is a Sport Management student at University of North Florida, Go Ospreys!! and  is primarily interested in data analytics and baseball. He can be reached at https://twitter.com/theslav1959  or read at The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365    http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/ .