Sunday, September 01, 2019

Valuing Madison Bumgarner



Image result for valuing madison bumgarner in free agency

Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses:

Madison Bumgarner’s greatest strength and his greatest weakness are one and the same. His indefatigable tenacity, his will to win and force you to submit to his will is his greatest strength most notably demonstrated during his epic 2014 World Series performance. His analysis that he had “about 200 pitches in his arm” before Game 7 would have drawn guffaws from most teammates, teammates know that is just Madison Bumgarner.

That same quality however has translated into his greatest weakness at times. Not making adjustment in his pitch sequencing to adapt to his lower velocity reading is partly due to his mind-set that he’s going to beat you playing “good old country hardball.” That works until it doesn’t, and you must adjust. The feistiness on the mound, the challenging of hitters for celebrations is part of what makes him great on the one hand, but leaves you shaking your head on the other hand. You must take the good with the bad, and the three rings, which Bumgarner was a large part of every one of them going back to his days as a precocious rookie in 2010 at age 20, demonstrate that there has been much more good than bad.





Post injuries tends – loss of velocity, stuff on FB - Misses plate more than misses bats at times due to stubbornness to want to win the battle his way – without giving in – rather the best, most economical way. This has led to elevated pitch-counts earlier, reaching 100 pitches around 5/6 inning rather than 7+.

Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance
Madison Bumgarner has thrown 29,263 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2019, he has relied primarily on his Four seam Fastball (92mph) and Cutter (87mph), also mixing in a Curve (78mph) and Change (85mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (89mph).


Basic description of 2019 pitches compared to other LHP:
His four-seam fastball generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' four seamers, has essentially average velo, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' four seamers and has slightly less natural movement than typical. His cutter generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' cutters, has slightly above average velo, has some natural sink and has strong cutting action. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' curves, has sweeping glove-side movement, has little depth and is slightly harder than usual. His change is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups, is slightly firmer than usual, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some natural sink to it. His sinker (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 2 of them in 2019) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has surprisingly little arm side run, has slightly below average velo and has some natural sinking action.

Contract Value and Performance Forecast:



Similarity Scores -Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml

I looked at Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Jon Lester as LHP contemporaries and comparables. I added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to demonstrate that the Giants have displayed a willingness to pay a premium salary well into the future for free agents based on performance delivered outside of the organization. It would be a difficult PR sell to let a “face of the franchise” iconic figure who has delivered premium results at discounted prices, take his talents to another franchise. 



MLB Salary Distribution and Comparable pitchers to Bumgarner – C. Slavik

To look at the risk of the aging curve working against the extending of a long-term contract, aside from the prior mentioned comparables, is this analysis from Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs.



Pitcher Aging Curves: Starters and Relievers - by Bill Petti  (FanGraphs)


To show the differences in starters I decided to plot the career of CC Sabathia against Scott Kazmir. Both were hard-throwing lefties who had great success early in their careers (FIP- in the high 80s and low 90s in their first two seasons), but — as we know — one went on to have a dominant career while the other was out of baseball by 27 years old.
Readers will notice that the ages for the curves differ by pitcher type. This is due to sample sizes at the various age levels. There are more starters younger than 23 who pitch in back-to-back seasons than there are relievers. Similarly, we were able to get enough relievers pitching in their age-37 and age-38 seasons, whereas the sample was just too small to include starters.
As we noted in the introduction to the series, the curves are different in a number of ways. In general, relievers age more dramatically than starters.



Sabathia and Kazmir Aging Curves – Bill Petti (Fan Graphs)



Sabathia Salary History – Baseball Reference.com

Sabathia produced 43.5 WAR through his age 28 year, Bumgarner is comparable at 39 WAR to the completion of 2019, his age 29 year. The Yankees paid for Sabathia from age 29 through age 36, for 8 years @ $190.5M or $23.8125M per year going forward. That is in line with what I project Bumgarner will receive from the Giants. I believe that Bumgarner will age more like Sabathia than Kazmir due to his size, which tends to age and hold up to injuries better, as Sabathia has demonstrated.

Both Sabathia and Bumgarner are legitimate 4 WAR, top of the rotation innings eaters, with the big difference being playoff performance of which Bumgarner is prolific and legendary. Bumgarner will also be chasing legendary pitching greats like Carl Hubbell and Christy Mathewson in various team history categories towards the end of any free-agent contract he signs with them. From a marketing standpoint, this could be a huge potential windfall for the Giants. There will always be considerable risk and angst over the extension of long-term contracts to anyone approaching age 30.

Matt Swartz, also on FanGraphs took a retrospective look at free agent contracts signed between 2007-2012 and found the following general results:

A Retrospective Look at the Price of a Win, by Matt Swartz, February 14, 2012



In fact, if you look at the $/WAR paid for players with at least six years of service time throughout the 2007 to 2011 seasons, you’d get the following ratios:
First year of contracts: $4.25 million/WAR
Later years of contracts: $5.5 million/WAR
Combining all contracts: $4.92 million/WAR

3) Free agents who sign elsewhere generally give their new teams less bang for their buck.
The $/rWAR* for all 196 multi-year deals that ended in between 2007 to 2011:

Re-signed players: $4.9 million/WAR
Players who switched teams: $6.8 million/WAR
Difference: 39%

Looking only at deals between two and four years long, I found the following differences:
Re-signed players who signed before the end of the season: $4.6 million/rWAR*
Re-signed players who signed after the end of the season: $6.6 million/rWAR*
Players who switched teams after the season ended: $8.9 million/rWAR*
*Note that rWAR is different (and usually lower — than WAR used at FanGraphs.

Swartz’s results ranging from $4.9M/WAR - $6.8M/WAR is in line with our findings / range of $6.59M – $7.41M per WAR based on the comps listed. The only question then becomes is Bumgarner more a 3.5 WAR guy or a 4.0 WAR guy and how far out do you go on the contract. A 5 to 8-year range, taking Bumgarner to age 34 – 37.

If the team protected against the outer years of an 8-year deal, then I applied the higher $7.41M per WAR per year and assumed a 4.0 WAR average. If the security to the player of an 8-year, effectively making Bumgarner a career Giant, the lower $6.59M per WAR is used and the lesser 3.5 WAR figure 
applied.

Assuming those conditions, the # years and salary range should look something like this:

Length of Contract        Salary Range             Average Salary
5 years @       $150M - $160M         $30.0M – $32.0M     
            6 years @       $165M - $175M         $27.5M – $29.2M
            7 years @       $180M - $190M         $25.7M - $27.1M
            8 years @       $200M - $210M         $25.0M - $26.25M


Charles Slavik is a Sport Management student at University of North Florida, Go Ospreys!! and  is primarily interested in data analytics and baseball. He can be reached at https://twitter.com/theslav1959  or read at The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365   http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/.

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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.