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JACKSONVILLE, FL - The 'Strays leave the Nest for their first road trip to Columbia, SC and I used the opportunity to test drive some baseball statistical concepts in real-time via Twitter.
Using basic Data Analysis tools (Excel, iPhone calculator), we looked at Lineup Optimization, Run Expectancy & Win Expectancy.
The college formula for RC (Runs Created), would need to be adjusted from 38 Plate Appearance per game to about 40, using last years UNF data and 2019 NCAA pitching data.
Also noted that the early inning where SC tried to give the game away -- Top of 2nd with the 3 walks and two errors -- really changed the odds significantly, especially the errors. They count as an AB without a hit attached (negative to offenses RE) although they do add to OBA. There should be an additional adjustment to the offense, for adding most significant resource, additional out(s).
I suppose you would then have to further complicate the formula to account for double plays and caught stealing, or net them out, as outs added back to the offense or given back to the defense. No thanks!!
For a back of the envelope type of calculation, this is not too shabby. It's hard enough to concentrate with that blasted Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24) running through my head.
This was the box score from the game and my usual post-mortem bitching and whining on Twitter.
We came in with a lineup that was capable of scoring 3.932 runs & came out with 5. The early walks & errors contributed to the overage, but the 3.932 is a concern. Configure optimally the expectation would be 5.01 runs. We are currently @ xRA 5.98, actual ~ 8 RA, pitching. Ugh!
Quote Tweet
Charles Slavik
@theslav1959
·
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
BTW: If the xR was 5.01 coming in...& the opponent bumps that up by 1.068....poof! 6.078 Runs, maybe we're still playing. Or we utilize the bullpen different & sneak away with a W. Just thinking out loud. BTW2: This was very predictable for the program, given larger prior issues.
Currently on a glide path for 24-33 record, if we get to 57 games played. In near term, playing #19 Hartford, #148 CM, #86 Ohio St. and #61 IL St. could lead to 3-9 which leaves team 5-14 entering B.C. series and FAMU. A sweep there (??) leads to 9-14 entering conference. Ugh!
I know some were pissed when Baseball America picked UNF for 5th in conference. That's looking rather generous as right now, Warren Nolan has us ranked #286, last in conference. The trend is not our friend right now.
1
These were the real-time game posts, after each inning. I messed up the formatting on Twitter for the first couple of innings. What a Twit?
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
After 8, down 6-5, it's Hail Mary time:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.389........0.200........38.00........ 2.96......... 0.067
0.452........0.645........38.00........ 11.07....... 0.933
After 7, down 6-5. Good timem for a 2-spot:
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.480.......0.300........38.00........ 5.47......... 0.196
0.452.......0.645........38.00........ 11.07...... 0.804
A big AB by Libunao in T7. Looking like another 1-2-3, low pitch count inning gets extended and almost scores a Little League offense run, BB-WP-WP-(almost....)
Though 6, down 6-5 after 11 pitch T6:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.480........0.300........38.00........ 5.47........ 0.172
0.448........0.704........38.00........ 11.99...... 0.828
After 5, 5-5. A big hold by Kilfoyl there. Creeping back slowly:
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.480.........0.300........38.00........5.47......... 0.167
0.417.........0.773........38.00........ 12.23..... 0.833
After 2: Up 4-3, W&E skew Rx/Wx, less likely to come in bunches at MLB level. It is two different boxscores over SSS of 2 innings. WAYGD?
OBA SPCT PA Rx Wx
0.5830.22238 4.92 0.114
0.4000.90038 13.68 0.886
We came in with a lineup that was capable of scoring 3.932 runs & came out with 5. The early walks & errors contributed to the overage, but the 3.932 is a concern. Configure optimally the expectation would be 5.01 runs. We are currently @ xRA 5.98, actual ~ 8 RA, pitching. Ugh!
Quote Tweet
Charles Slavik
@theslav1959
·
FINAL 6-5: They tried to give it away early and did just enough to hold on. Only 4K's to UNF 11K hitting. 12H to 5H and 3xBH to 1xBH.
OBA SPCTPA Rx Wx
0.359.......0.182........38.00.........2.48.......0.048
0.452.......0.645........38.00.........11.07....... 0.952
BTW: If the xR was 5.01 coming in...& the opponent bumps that up by 1.068....poof! 6.078 Runs, maybe we're still playing. Or we utilize the bullpen different & sneak away with a W. Just thinking out loud. BTW2: This was very predictable for the program, given larger prior issues.
Currently on a glide path for 24-33 record, if we get to 57 games played. In near term, playing #19 Hartford, #148 CM, #86 Ohio St. and #61 IL St. could lead to 3-9 which leaves team 5-14 entering B.C. series and FAMU. A sweep there (??) leads to 9-14 entering conference. Ugh!
I know some were pissed when Baseball America picked UNF for 5th in conference. That's looking rather generous as right now, Warren Nolan has us ranked #286, last in conference. The trend is not our friend right now.
1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.
2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects
1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.
2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects
1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.
