Figures from Baseball America article, "How much did your team spend?"
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763
The Giants ran the table and signed 10 of their first ten round draft picks. They actually signed seventeen or their first eighteen picks. The first whiff was 18th pick Jonathan Walsh who was highly rated coming into his senior HS year but disappointed and will play at the University of Texas.
Fifteen of the thirty teams in major league baseball managed to sign 100% of their first ten picks in addition to the G-men. This shows the emphasis on the first ten rounds. If anybody past the 10th round hits for you, the draft can become something special.
Total bonuses paid in the first ten round ranged from $1.9 million paid by the Mets (way to mail it in Mutts) to $10.9 million paid out by the Nationals (for 10 players). The Mariners came in second in bonus payouts at $10.7 million (for 12 players).
Those free-agent signings are working out so well for the Metsies that I guess they couldn't find any spare change in the seat cushions at Bailout Field to sign any youngsters.
The Rangers were next cheapest, spending $1.9 million to sign 7 of their 11 picks. This gave them the lowest success rate at 64%, with the Mets coming at 78% for the fourth lowest success rate. The Rays at 70% and the Blue Jays at 75% were #2/3 in the signing futility derby.
This all makes the Giants 10 picks signed for $5.8 millions seem very reasonable, more so since they were drafting towards the top of the round(s). The "average" team signed nine of their first ten picks and spent $5.3 million in bonuses. The "median" was $4.6 million and 9.6 out of 10 picks signed.
This has been the Giants strength in the last few years--spending dollars through the draft and International free agency.
The Giants have now spent about $5.8M this year, $9.1 in 2008--primarily to sign Posey, $7.4M in 2007--when they had some early supplemental picks, and $4.4 in 2006. About $27M over the past four drafts, that should begin to pay major league dividends beginning next year.
Now, if they can just keep Sabean away from the cash register and prevent another Zito $18.5M, Randy Winn $9.25M, Edgar Renteria $8M signing, we should be OK.
I'm even willing to give Sabs a bogey on Bengie Molina $6M, Randy Johnson at $8M, an Aaron Rowand at $9.6M because they have filled a need and have come reasonably close to performing as expected, if not as paid.
A lot of those deals come off the books after this year led by:
Randy Winn $9.25M
Randy Johnson $8M
Dave Roberts $6.5M (WOW, what a waste of salary)
Bengie Molina $6M
Bobby Howry $2.75M
Rich Aurilia and Juan Uribe @ $1M each
clears almost $34M in salary. An additional $4.75 should come off by not offering arbitration to Noah Lowry @ $4.75M. That leaves about $38.75M to play with.
Even after deciding whether to re-up Freddie Sanchez (club option)--which will goose him from $6.25 closer to $8M--the Giants only have to approach 1st year arbitration deals with Lincecum, Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, Garko and Frandsen.
You could make all those guys happy--although I would think long and hard about blocking Ishakawa with Garko--and still have enough left over for a power hitting corner outfielder (or two) which the minor league system seems wholly incapable of producing.
Then the Giants will be back as a serious contender.
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As for the here and now:
The Giants are a still hanging in there--given the punchers chance that the pitching staff allows--even at this late stage of the season.
The Dodgers will wrap things up and cruise in with 95+ wins. The Cardinals should coast to the Central at around 90 wins. The Phillies can mail it in and still win the East with about 95 wins. Any one of these three can advance to the World Series.
The Rockies could win 90 and that would ice the wild card for them. The Giants and Marlins should get 85+ wins but will likely fall short. For the Giants 88-74 would be a literal and figurative turnaround from the last couple of dismal years and raise expectations for next year.
Atlanta and Chicago seem to be in the pretender category and each looks like they will pull a hammy to get 85 wins.
In the junior circuit:
The Yankees should cruise in the East with possibly 100 wins. The Angels will get close at 95+ wins to close out the West. In the Central, the Tigers seem ready to close out the White Sox with both struggling to get to 85 wins. One of those two teams will keep out a more deserving Sawks or Rangers team--both of whom may surpass 90 wins.
Ironically, both leagues may have four 90 plus win teams, but the NL will have all four in the playoffs and the AL will likely only have three make the post-season. Maybe Jayson Stark or the ditto-heads at ESPN can get with the owners and figure out a better system to prevent that from happening instead of focusing on screwing up the draft.
Anyway, the Rays will disappoint the faithful at between 85-90 wins, normally a good year in Tampa Bay. The Twinkees will struggle to .500 but amazingly still could get hot and win the division.
Happens every year. Should be an interesting five or six weeks and then the second season starts.
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