Not if you listen to the chattering nabobs parroting the party line about how "the draft needs to be restructured"--"it's not working right"--"it's insane that a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in the bigs makes this much money", etc., etc.
But in a free, open market I don't see why Strasburg wouldn't command over $50 million. Would major league teams be better off without a draft? Or do they just want one that suppresses bonuses below their intelligence level? They hold the checkbooks and the budgets. For the life of me, I don't understand why otherwise intelligent businessmen feel the need to have the heavy hand of regulations save them from themselves. But, if they can get away with it, more power to them, I guess.
Take the Dice-K example of a premier talent made available to all 30 teams to see what could happen in a Strasburg Open Market.
The Red Sox won the bidding by paying approximately $50 million to the Japanese team that owned his "rights". Granted, not all of that "rights fee" money would flow directly to the player in an open, unfettered market.
But would perhaps half of that amount be included in an open market bidding war? I don't see why not. Granted, Dice-K was a relatively proven commodity. He had pitched against major leaguers and came away with glowing reviews.
Strasburg will eventually generate similar reviews, and then some, if his power fastball and quality breaking stuff make the same impact in the majors as they did in the college ranks. I know he won't be throwing against UC-Santa Barbara anymore but there is always the Pirates. I'm not sure his K/9IP, WHIP or BAvg against him are going to change much barring injury.
The bottom line is, 102 MPH is 102 MPH. To take the George Young "Planet Theory" and transplant it from football to baseball--there are only so many people on the planet capable of throwing a baseball 102 MPH. It would behoove the Nats to try to acquire as many of such players as they can. If they finish last again, there is no guarantee that a nearly major league ready, potential top of the rotation starter will be available. Although--the next LeBron--Bryce Harper would not be a bad consolation prize.
It would also behoove Mr. Strasburg to sign and not hold out. His star will never be higher. It can't be elevated by pitching against Indy leaguers or the same crop of collegians he just dominated this year. And I don't believe for a second that the Japanese teams are dumb enough to insert themselves in the middle of a negotiation ploy.
I would like to see some changes made to the draft, i.e. ability to trade draft picks (maybe limited to top 5 rounds). I think the inclusion of Cuban and Dominican players in the draft just on the basis of fundamental fairness to American kids is an issue that needs to be looked into. Perhaps this will alleviate some of the problems of "agents" and MLB front-office types cheating kids out of their bonuses if the market is not some shadowy, black-market dealing in baseball talent.
Before the clock strikes the midnight deadline, I believe that the deal gets done. It may set another record and generate lots of fresh meat for the talk show circuit, but overall a Strasburg signing is good for baseball and great for the Nationals and their fans.
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