Thursday, August 08, 2013

ESPN Home Run Tracker: Measuring the speed of the ball off the bat


Hit Tracker is now ESPN Home Run Tracker! Hit Tracker founder Greg Rybarczyk is now collaborating with the ESPN Stats & information Group to continue tracking all MLB home runs, and helping baseball fans know "How Far It Really Went!™" Please credit any information on this site to ESPN Stats & Information Group. For more information and analysis on home runs, please contact founder Greg Rybarczyk.

So I stumble onto this site surfing the 'net and it tracks HR's hit in MLB and the speed of the ball off the bat on said hits.  This is a very neat statistical toy.
2013 Top Home Runs, Speed Off Bat - Full List
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php
Here is the developer's bio so you can see the data is likely very reliable and and I won't hear from either his or ESPN's lawyers for my use of the data.

Bio
Greg Rybarczyk was born in Lowell, MA and raised in Ayer, MA, graduating from Lawrence Academy in Groton in 1986 and Union College in 1990, where he earned a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering. He was awarded an officer's commission in the U.S. Navy in 1990, and served in that capacity for seven years, fulfilling assignments aboard ship as a nuclear engineer and his ship's navigator, and later ashore as a physics instructor at an ROTC prep school.
Since leaving the Navy in 1997 Greg has worked as a reliability engineer, design engineer and as a Six Sigma "Black Belt" and "Master Black Belt" for two major U.S. & global corporations. In these roles he has made extensive use of data gathering and statistical analysis to solve business problems, making numerous quality improvements to his company's products and saving the company many millions of dollars during his career.
In early 2005, Greg began designing Hit Tracker, which combines several of his interests and talents: baseball, physics, statistics and automated spreadsheet design.
Greg lives in the Portland, OR area with his wife and two children.

So I scan the names and notice the Giants appear to be under-represented at the top of the list, which is littered with the premier HR hitters in  the game.  No surprise there.

It turns out you can copy/paste the list into Excel and sort by team.

So I did that. With interesting (IMO) results.

Here are the stats for the entire bucket of HR's up until August 7th.
Average 103.37
Median 103.20
High 120.10
Low 88.50

The Giants came in at about 103.1 and the rays at 103.5.
The Blue Jays were the top team at 105, not surprising, their guys are all over the top of the list and near the high posted by Trumbo of 120.10.
The Marlins, Braves and Angels were around 104.5.
Philly and Seattle were among the worst at around 102.25.

The data for the top readings for each hitter by team was even more illuminating, but again not very surprising.

For the Giants, Hunter Pence launched one at (115.6) followed by Posey (112.4) Sandoval (111.3) Tony Abreu, maybe he should play more (107.1) Crawford (106.0) Quiroz (105.6) Torres (105.2) Blanco (103.4) Belt (102.1) Scutaro (101.5) Pill (101.4) Pagan (97.6). 

Now, Brandon Belt is too big a kid to be swinging it 102 tops. Maybe they were onto something with this whole lining up the knuckles bit. He just hit a HR off the Brewers, so it will be interesting if the mechanical change translated into a higher bat speed reading. My guess would be yes. Belt is five for ten AB's since the change coming into today, so it has had an immediate impact. I just wonder why it took so long, his hard  headed-ness or their organizational air headed-ness.   

For the Rays, Evan Longoria (112.8) Luke Scott (112.8) Joyce (112.0) Myers (110.7) K. Johnson (110.0) S. Rodriguez (109.7) Loney (109.6) Escobar (109.3) Lobaton (108.7) D. Jennings (108.6) Zobrist (108.1) Roberts (104.5) S. Duncan (102.0) Fuld (101.8) Molina (100.1) 

Aside from the fact that the Rays have 11 guys with readings > 108.1 and the Giants had only 3 a couple of other embarrassing observations. The Rays have guys coming off their bench that would be in our top three or four. They have middle infielders that would be in our top four!!! 

What the heck are they doing to identify and develop hitters that we aren't? If you look at the top-end speed, their guys beat our guys across the board by about 5 MPH. Now that may not seem like much, but it translates into about 25-35 more feet on a line drive or a fly ball. Heck, more speed on grounders = more singles through the IF. More bat speed on line drives and fly balls = more doubles and triples, to say nothing about more HR's versus warning track fly outs.   

No wonder the Giants haven't hit a HR at home in about a month. They don't have decent bat speed. 

And they're quitters. 

I'd like to play around with the data more and see how much the bat speed correlates to some of the FanGraphs hitting data, especially the RunsCreated and some of the slugging / extra-base hit data. 

Maybe if the Giants keep bringing boring back into baseball, I can free up some time. 


 

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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.