Wednesday, July 01, 2015

The four lessons of Matt Duffy (or You too can Be a Data Hero)




DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!!!! We have a winner.

The First Lesson of Matt Duffy, The Joe Panik Rule....hmmmm both good titles,  but here at The Slav's Baseball Blog, we lovingly refer to it as The K/BB ratio for pitchers. The opposite ratio for hitters would be The BB/K ratio. Both correlate pretty highly for predicting future success and both are, generally speaking, the first screen I look at to filter prospect lists of any kind (there are others).

These metrics are not as widely available for HS players, but for most collegians and certainly for professional players, there is a plethora of data sources where you can find and filter to your hearts content. And isn't that what data analysis is all about?

from McCovey Chronicles:
The four lessons of Matt Duffy, who doesn't make sense - McCovey Chronicles:
The first lesson of Matt Duffy
Pay attention to the minor leaguers who strike out about as much as they walk. Before you look at any other statistic (other than maybe home runs, of course), check the walks. Check the strikeouts. If they're about even (and neither of them are absurdly deflated or inflated), pay attention to that player. You could also call this the Joe Panik Rule, and it applies to any prospect, regardless if they're doing other impressive things.
In 2013, this skinny afterthought was hitting .303/.389/.443 across two levels, including a cool 45 walks to 41 strikeouts in Low-A. This isn't to suggest that he should have been a top prospect then -- it was a performance that just barely got him onto a consensus top-30 list -- but the lesson isn't that every kid will be a star if he can work a count at the same time he's making contact. The lesson is to pay attention to those types.
'via Blog this'


P.S. - Case in point. Daniel Carbonnell was just sent back to repeat Hi-A after a wretched stint at AA. Now, he hit over .300 in Hi-A last year in a short stint and started there this year at over .300. The Giants promoted him to AA and the wheels literally came off, a .146 AVG in 214 AB's with a 53:4 K/BB ratio. That would be fantastic for a pitcher, but turn that smile upside down and for a hitter, it's 4:53 or a wretched 7.5% when we're looking for closer to 1:1 or 100%.

See why he got sent back? Hard to generate the other things that scouts and fans salivate over, the Hits, Extra-Base Hits, and Home Runs, from the contact AB's, when you're spending too much time on the wrong side of the non-contact AB side of the equation and on the wrong side of THAT equation to boot, On the non-contact side, you can K or BB, one is good, the other bad. Not rocket science here and for the most part, very binary.

No comments:

Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.