If this Gallup Poll data is accurate, then it seems like what went on in Iowa this weekend will be the starting gun in the race to determine who the next POTUS will be. I don't mean to minimize the chances for the other guy who may be in the race. He appears to be doing a good enough job of that on his own, with the help of Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke.
Odds from intrade.com
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
With any luck, we settle our differences here at the ballot box and not in the streets, like other countries around the world.
Let the games begin.
U.S. Political Ideology Stable With Conservatives Leading:
Bottom Line
The U.S. political culture is a broad mix of conservatives, moderates, and liberals, with conservatives continuing to be the largest group by a slight, but statistically significant, margin over moderates. This pattern first emerged in 2009, driven by increased conservatism among independents, and has since persisted. Partly as a result, the country is more polarized today than it was in 1992.
All three ideology groups coexist under a divided federal government that has struggled to reach agreement on how to raise the nation's debt ceiling. The source of congressional leaders' difficulty unifying their own members on the matter is evident in the finding that even within the parties there exists a mix of moderates and liberals (in the case of Democrats) and strong conservatives and not-so-strong conservatives (in the case of Republicans) tugging their respective parties in different directions."
More from Gallup on the Tea-Party and their composition.
Tea Partiers Are Fairly Mainstream in Their Demographics
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127181/tea-partiers-fairly-mainstream-demographics.aspx
It's not the image that the loons from the left and the MSM would have you believe. Then again, they have never been ones to let the facts get in the way of a good story, even as so many parrot a familiar hackneyed phrase.
"You are entitled to your opinion, but not your own facts"
Guess who is going to end up being on the right side of this argument.
In response to Republican Senator Lamar Alexander's contention that premiums will go up under reform, the President cites the Congressional Budget Offices report that his proposal will lower costs for individuals by between 14 and 20%. President Obama cites some of the Republican ideas he's included in his proposal and makes it clear that he welcomes additional Republican ideas to contain costs.
Thank God the courts will take care of this unconstitutional monstrosity.
On the D-side of things, I don't put much stock in the "Obama will get a primary challenge" argument. TPTB on that side, that came to the the conclusion that Hillary Clinton and her cronies -- including Mr. Bill -- would be too full of themselves to control, will simply not allow her to mount a challenge, and she is the only one that can.
The far lefts wet dream of a Dennis Kuchinich presidency has as much chance of happening as a Ron Paul presidency. Sounds like a great idea, then you wake up and face reality.
On the R-side,
Note to the Rudy Guiliani's and Fred Thompson's and John McCain's of the world, from the last go-round.
- You did not deem it important enough to roll up your sleeves last time and compete when your country needed you. Don't look to be asked this time. It seemed as if collectively, the Repub candidates steeped back and left John McCain to step forward and take one for the team, in the same fashion that the military asks for volunteers. McCain was the R's sap. If it wasn't for juice that Palin provided unexpectedly, he would have legitimately had a chance to lose a minimum of 49 states and go down as the Republican version of Walter Mondale.
In fact, in hind-sight, I'm a little suspicious now that the Clinton's didn't take a look across the economic landscape -- much of which Bill and Robert Rubin helped create, along with Greeenspan -- and decided to pull his wife back from the firing line and let Barack Obama take one for the D-team.
GO HARD THIS TIME OR GO HOME AS A PARTY FOR GOOD, AND DON'T COME BACK.
There, now that we have set the ground rules.
Three contenders from the Republican team stood out for their business acumen and common sense:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Michelle Bachmann
3. Herman Cain
If pocketbook issues decide the race (and I believe they will), these three will be well-suited to challenge Obama.
If cultural issues become the deciding factor, the following three are articulate and knowledgeable enough, if at times a bit grumpy and persnickety:
4. Ron Paul
5. Newt Gingrich
6. Rick Santorum
Ron Paul could also be placed quite easily in the business acumen crowd, in fact, IMO he would be the front-runner there. But it didn't take long for the others to throw the "Iran getting nukes issue" that will be used to marginalize Paul among the national security / military crowd within the Repub tent. They did a similar dance using 9-11 as the wedge issue last time around.
If Paul runs as a third party candidate he could cause some difficulty. If the lefty-Dems run a third-party or protest type candidate to display their "buyers remorse" that further complicates things.
As for Tim Pawlenty, his performance just reminded me how I feel when I see a little bird fly smashing into a window. At times, equal parts sad, amusing and mystifying to witness.
The good folks at Wild Birds Unlimited offer this explanation for the phenomena, and it seems to suit Pawlenty.
“Some birds bang into windows because they think they see another bird in their territory, some birds fly into windows because they don’t see the window. Other birds fly into windows because they are being chased by predators.”
Anyway, thanks for playing Timmy, here's your version of the home game and hopefully you didn't piss-off the eventual nominee enough to preclude being a viable V.P. candidate. Sorry about your beak.
Pawlenty's campaign chances after Iowa:
As for John Huntsman, he's such a darling of the Democratic, hands across the aisle crowd that I have a suggestion for you guys.....TAKE HIM, HE'S ALL YOURS!!! My gosh, do you mean to tell me that you seriously thought you could run for President without having a coherent economic plan!!! I'm sorry Mr. Huntsman, you've been hanging around the present administration a little to much. Got a little bit of that Stockholm Syndrome thingy on your persona. You might want to try and wash that out.
Anyway, thank for playing Johnny-boy. One Mormon is the field is plenty and you lose versus Romney easily.
As for Perry, Palin and Gov. Chrisite, I just have one message.
GET IN QUICK OR STAY OUT. We don't have the time or the patience for any daisy-picking, she-loves-me, she-loves-me not BS. Thanks.
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