Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Achievement Metrics sells sound of success in NFL draft prospects

The career passer ratings of several NFL quarterbacks show how their performance has matched up against Achievement Metrics' assessment of their speech while the players were in college. The chart places the players according to their scores for "positive power,” or their belief in the ability to influence outcomes, and “in-group affiliation,” or how well they interact with a group. The firm cautions that the report "is designed for informational purposes only" and "should not be construed to guarantee a player’s future performance or behavior and is not a comprehensive statement, evaluation, or judgment of any player’s character or future performance."


Here are a couple of interesting articles and graphics presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference http://www.sloansportsconference.com/ by a firm by the name of Achievement Metrics.

They may have some potential to replace the Wonderlic test to help NFL teams better assess the intangibles they are looking for in QB's and other leadership positions.

If they do a decent job in sorting out the leader for a couple of drafts, the NFL will beat a quick path to their door and as always, it helps if the QB or MLB can make plays. Interesting stuff in that it seems like it attempts to quantify that which has historically been a "gut-feel" thing among scouts. The interviews at the combine are supposedly where teams either hit or miss big on some of these guys and anything that can be objectively quantified is going to give GM's and owners more of a "warm and fuzzy" feeling before they invest big dollars in a guy. It might even help finding that later round, smaller school guy who has better potential to succeed a similar prospect from a larger, more visible school.

from AchievmentMetrics.com
Achievement Metrics sells sound of success in NFL draft prospects « News « Achievement Metrics:


How an individual speaks, he said, is a gauge as to how they think, and the company thinks NFL franchises could find that valuable when they analyze how to spend millions of dollars on player contracts.

The career passer ratings of several NFL quarterbacks show how their performance has matched up against Achievement Metrics' assessment of their speech while the players were in college. The chart places the players according to their scores for "positive power,” or their belief in the ability to influence outcomes, and “in-group affiliation,” or how well they interact with a group. The firm cautions that the report "is designed for informational purposes only" and "should not be construed to guarantee a player’s future performance or behavior and is not a comprehensive statement, evaluation, or judgment of any player’s character or future performance."


Online magazine Slate.com has a more detailed breakdown of the science, but Hall said the brief pitch is this – it creates psychological profiles of player prospects based on words used in spontaneous speech.
It isn’t a grammar test. An algorithm analyzes speech to determine traits such as “conceptual complexity,” or whether a prospect views the world in shades of gray or clearly pall mall cigarettes delineates it in black and white; “positive power,” or belief in the ability to influence outcomes; and “in-group affiliation,” or how a prospect associates – well or poorly – with a group.
'via Blog this'




USE YOUR WORDS


from AchievmentMetrics.com
http://www.achievementmetrics.com/archives/319

It’s notoriously difficult to figure out which top collegiate quarterbacks will succeed in the NFL. Pro teams give prospects an SAT-type test called the Wonderlic test, which doesn’t parliament cigarettes predict all that accurately.  A company called Achievement Metrics, on the other hand, studies the words college athletes use in media interviews. Some use words that signal high degrees of confidence, conceptual complexity and team orientation. Others use words that signal self-centeredness and distrust.
The results of their work were recently written up by Machael Agger in Slate. The most arresting example concerns a choice the San Francisco 49ers faced in 2005, whether to draft Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers as their future quarterback. Both were college stars and Smith had a phenomenal score on the Wonderlic test. But Smith didn’t use common leadership words in his interviews, while Rodgers had leadership words spewing out of his mouth.
The method assumes that the words we blurt out in a quick interview are a window into our soul. I don’t know if that’s true, but they might be as good an indicator of football performance as an IQ test.
David Brooks
Source: New York Times
from slate.com
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2011/04/will_cam_newton_be_a_bust.single.html


As you can see, Cam Newton is in what I've termed the "quadrant of doom." He talks like other first-round draft picks—Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Brady Quinn—who have bombed in the NFL. Does this mean Newton is destined for a disastrous career? Absolutely not. This year's No. 1 pick could defy the probabilities and become a success in the NFL, just the way that Carson Palmer has done.
More jarring, perhaps, is the presence of Tim Tebow in the quadrant of doom. Though his on-field readiness for the NFL has been debated endlessly, nobody disputes his skill as a leader and orator. The pledge he made after a 2008 loss to Ole Miss—"You will never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season"—is even inscribed on a plaque at his alma mater. Although this sounds uplifting to our ears, the algorithm heard something different. It detected a guy who had a little less love for the team and a little less belief in himself than his peers did.
The big surprise in the first round was the Minnesota Vikings' pick of Christian Ponder, a quarterback whom many had projected to go in the third round. On the NFL network, the assembled pundits couldn't stop repeating "there's something about this guy." He's in the "Julius Caesar" quadrant, along with his fellow first-round draft picks Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. The other highly regarded quarterbacks in the draft, Andy Dalton (taken by the Bengals as the 35th pick) and Ryan Mallett (taken by the Patriots in the 3rd round) also talk (at least) like winners.



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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.