When looking for the magic bullet in the correlation / causation argument, a key phrase from the article sticks out in my mind.
"since the recovery rate is so high, teams are willing to project a return to normality for prospects".
Looking back to the 70's - 80's and even the early 90's, having Tommy John surgery was considered a Hail Mary pass for aging veterans. Since 1994-95, due to the miracle of modern medicine and advances in rehabilitation, the surgery has gone from pariah to panacea for pitchers of all ages.
It used to be considered like a major overhaul to the pitching arm and now it's looked on as more akin to a tune-up. It has become almost an enhancement to a prospects career more than a detriment. All in one generation.
Oh, The Times They Are A-Changin'.......... Thanks Bob.
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
Keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come againDon't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they, they are a-changin'
Read more: Bob Dylan - The Times They Are A-changin' Lyrics | MetroLyrics
Glenn Flesig On Tommy John Incidence – MLB Trade Rumors:
Injury expert Glenn Flesig discussed the latest Tommy John surgery epidemic at the annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. Flesig, who holds a doctorate in biomedical engineering, is the partner of Dr. James Andrews at the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI). The institute aims to “improve the understanding, prevention and treatment of sports-related injuries through research and education.”
Flesig presented data on both professional and youth pitchers. At the professional level, 16% of pitchers have had Tommy John surgery. Flesig found that once pitchers have recovered from the procedure, “they have the typical flexibility and typical mechanics. So they’re back to normal.” Of course, lost time and the potential for complications means that it’s best to avoid the issue in the first place.
Of course, UCL replacement can often impact free agency and the trade market. The increased incidence of the injury last season had some teams reaching for outside help. The Braves were able to call upon Ervin Santana on a one-year deal when Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both required a second procedure. Atlanta forfeited a draft pick when they signed Santana. We saw both Medlen and Beachy sign short-term, incentive-laden contracts this winter.
Since the recovery rate is so high, teams are willing to project a return to normality for prospects. Last June, the Blue Jays drafted Jeff Hoffman ninth overall. The Nationals took Erik Fedde with the 18th pick. Both pitchers had Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft.
A study of youth pitchers could reveal the way to decrease the incidence of elbow injury. Flesig offered a few convincing correlations. Youth pitchers who threw over 80 pitches in a game were four times more likely to require surgery. Those who pitched for more than eight months a year were five times more likely.
Pitching when fatigued was the biggest risk indicator. Youth who self-identified as having “often pitched” when fatigued were 36 times more likely to go under the knife. For the parents in the audience, don’t let your kid pitch too often or when fatigued.'via Blog this'
I like that the stats community is getting interested in this and disseminating some of the knowledge down to where it belongs, at the youth level. The professionals are just that, professionals. They can do what they want and they have the best of the best out there helping them make informed decisions.
It seems like there are still organizations scattered out there that are thirsting for this type of direction and information. It appears that MLB has to get a grip on issues like this and that may require a bit of centralization. Colleges, high schools and youth leagues are going to have to be willing to give up some autonomy in exchange for some of this information. We'll see at that point who really cares about kids and who cares more about pocketbooks and bottom lines.
New commissioner Rob Manfred has made some noises about a USA Baseball type of umbrella,
Get the right information into the right hands and let's see what happens.
from Irvine Youth Sports Parents Blog:
http://irvineyouthsportsparents.com/
No comments:
Post a Comment