Tuesday, March 31, 2015

How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles


http://m.mlb.com/video/?content_id=36820485&topic_id=6479266
Panik's two-run homer


My guess is Mr. panik will do pretty well for the Giants this year. A HR yesterday, on a pitch it looked like he just slapped at and did not get all of, gives a glimpse of the power that I believe will come from his bat later in his career. Joe is now at 3 HR's this spring, tied for the team lead with Brandon Belt.

I love this observation from McCovey Chronicles about Panik because I think it cuts to the heart of what hitting is all about:

A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.
Note: this is what I think some in the SABR crowd have difficulty quantifying and projecting in hitters, JMO .

BTW: I like the recent surge by Daniel Carbonell lately ( .316 BA ) like Matt Duffy, he is going to make the decision to send him out a lot tougher on Bruce Bochy and the staff.

from McCovey Chronicles:
How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles:
The projection systems, as well as analysts/scouts like Keith Law, aren't quite as impressed with Panik. 
 Steamer: .255/.305/.337
 ZiPS: .264/.316/.344
 PECOTA: .257/.307/.333 
These systems don't hate you, your favorite sports team, or America. Probably not. They're emotionless, barely sentient spreadsheets. They suck up the minor league numbers, compare them against players who had similar numbers in the past, and spit out major league projections based on what those other players did. History tells us that Panik probably isn't going to hit for enough average or power to be anything close to an above-average hitter. Not yet. All of those systems suggest that he'll have enough defense and baserunning grit to make up for it, but don't expect a repeat of last year's .305 batting average. 
Those disappointing projections are based on a couple of things: Panik had a .343 batting average on balls in play, which is higher than the typical player (while not obscenely so), and he has never hit for a lot of power, even doubles power, in the minors. 
A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.
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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.