Monday, July 07, 2014

Giants sputter into the All-Star break


Giants continue to cruise into the All-Star break with a sputtering engine, primarily because of the revolving door that is the Giants training room.  

If you told me PRIOR to the season that the G-men would only be 0.5 games behind the Dodgers @ 49-37-.557 at this point in the season, I would have taken that. 

According to Fan Graphs Playoff Odds the Gigantes have:
  • 32.1% chance of winning the division
  • 38.2% chance of securing a wild-card spot
  • 70.3% chance of making the playoffs 
I would have taken that at the beginning of the season. I may have thought THOSE odds were overly optimistic. So why the angst? Flashbacks to the 2013 melt down that was the Giants season? That's fair enough given the injuries and the Jekkyl - Hyde look of the Giants offense. 

Still a 24.6% odds of making the NLDS, 11.5% chance of making the NLCS and 4.6% Word Series odds still leaves Giants fans with  a lot to look forward to in the second half. 

What would help turn the Giants fans frowns upside down? In no particular order:
  • The return of Angel Pagan
  • The return of Sergio Romo's MIA slider
  • The return of Marco Scutaro
  • The return to dominance of Matt Cain 
Give me Bumgarner, Cain and Hudson firing on all cylinders in August and September and I'll take my chances with even the Giants offense, which I believe one announcer watching the Giants - Padres slugfest likened it to pre-DH baseball ie: boring to the point of torture. 

On of the most surprising stats so far has been the Giants home - road splits.

The Giants are currently 25-23 @ Home versus 24-16 Road record which could actually give the Giants some cause for hope moving forward, as the schedule puts the Giants on the road for large sections of the second half of the season. If they can get their acts together away from AT&T, a final four game set at AT&T versus the Padres -- who should be eliminated by then -- could leave the Giants in pretty good shape for the final weekend. 

Right now, the Giants have slipped from best record in the N.L. (majors at one point) to tied for third with the Braves based on Win_Pct.

Win_Pct.
  • Brewers .584
  • Dodgers .560
  • Braves - Giants .557
  • Nats .552
  • Pirates .534
  • Cardinals .528 
  • Reds .517 
Of these teams, the one that seems most likely to drop off the pace based on Run_Differential, would be the Pirates and I would always beware of the Cardinals lurking just a bit behind the playoff pace. 

Run_Differential
  1. Dodgers +62
  2. Nats +59 
  3. Brewers +31
  4. Giants +28
  5. Cardinals +16
  6. Reds +15
  7. Braves +12
  8. Pirates -7
So all is not lost. But it sure could be given injuries and a continuation of a lineup that features too much of Gregor Blanco .235 / 170 AB's, Tyler Colvin .234 / 107 AB's, Hector Sanchez (as Timmy's caddy) .206 / .141 AB's Joaquin Arias .176 / 102 AB's, Brandon Hicks .164 / 201 AB's.  

I get that some of the guys are more in the lineup for their glove as for their bats. I get that you want to keep the bench fresh. I don't get how you can sacrifice AB's from a league MVP in Buster Posey to feed some of these other guys. Unless Posey is more injured than the Giants want to let on, that is horrible lineup juggling. 


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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.