Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Giants swoon traced to Angel Pagan's absence - San Jose Mercury News



Pagan in, Giants win. Pagan out, fans pout. The highly touted WAR metric clearly does not completely capture the importance of Angel's contributions to the Giants offense and to winning or losing. I have to get back to my spreadsheet and figure this one out because when and if I do, I'll be famous like Billy Beane.

from Mercury News:
Giants' swoon traced to Angel Pagan's absence - San Jose Mercury News:
Since acquiring Pagan from the New York Mets before the 2012 season, the Giants are 163-124 when he plays and 53-66 when he doesn't in the regular season. Put another way, with their electrifying leadoff hitter, the Giants play at a 92-win pace. 
When Pagan doesn't see the field, they play like a 72-win team. 
 "It's amazing the different in record when he's out there versus not," manager Bruce Bochy said. "The numbers speak for themselves." 
Certainly, Pagan is not worth 20 wins per season, or anywhere close. Per FanGraphs.com, Pagan was worth 4.5 wins above replacement in 2012, his best season in the big leagues. Buster Posey posted a 7.6 WAR that season and was the National League's MVP."
'via Blog this'

This amazing thing is, the Giants were resilient in the face of other significant losses to the offense, ie: Scutaro, Belt. Perhaps Pagan's injury was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back, maybe not. This is the second time however that Pagan's abscence has almost immediately coincided with a significant Giants offensive swoon.

Pagan is like the guys in basketball that are described as "glue guys" they hold things together and improve the contributions that others make to the team. Therefore, their impact to the team cannot be measured by simply analyzing individual statistics. Replacing Pagan in the lineup with Blanco should not have had this type of effect on the Giants offense, statistically speaking. But it did!! Again!!!

Whoever can plausibly piece together the cause and effect to this type of presence in the lineup -- the Pagan effect -- from a statistical standpoint, is going to be famous. Good Luck.




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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.