WEEK TWO: One flew over the BirdsofStray's Nest (TOTO) this weekend..

JACKSONVILLE, FL - This is what it felt like watching the series against Rutgers against TOTO @ the BirdsofStray's Nest in Jacksonville. When you go against a team that ended last year NCAA RPI ranked  191 versus our own 106, at home, a 2-1 split is not unreasonable to assume.

Rutgers was also 0-15 versus Quadrants 1-2 last year (versus UNF 7-11) and 5-24 if you add Quad 3 teams (versus UNF 14-15). Making up that sort of a differential, with a lineup that was laden with sophomores was very impressive, if somewhat painful, to watch.

Last week we may have assumed too much from facing VMI, where a 3-0 sweep expectation dissolved into a shaky 2-1 split reality. OK, so was I worried about this series, no! Did I expect what happened this weekend, no!

So, what do we know? Given that we have been off base on our expectations versus reality. Well, I do know this, and we hear it every game that a certain catcher plays, we just don't hear enough of it.

When the levee breaks.....

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break...

When the levee breaks, I'll have no place to stay....

Don't it make you feel bad... When you're tryin' to find your way home... You don't know which way to go?...

Cryin' won't help you prayin' won't do you no good...

When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move....

....mama, you got to move....That makes so much sense, more than doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That's cuckoo, man!!

So, where do we stand? Let's dig into the numbers a bit. Based on our old friend, the RC formula (OBA*SPct*PA), we have UNF @ 5.01 runs expected versus Opponents @ 5.98. Actual Runs come in at 4.17 for UNF (17% below expected) and 8.00 for Opponents (33% over expected).

What gives? Is the formula wacked? In the short-term, it's going to be volatile. In the long-term, it's very reliable.

What could be skewing the data? Where are the most obvious glaring disparities between us-them?

Data Point         UNF      Opponents

Errors                    10                4

Unearned Runs      10                4

Stolen Bases           2                 6

Wild Pitches          12                2?

     K%                        20%             15%

     BB%                      6%               10%

Avg. RISP             ??                 ??

I don't know what the Average with Runner in Scoring Position (RISP) numbers are, but I imagine we fell short in that category as well. RISP is a poor-man's proxy for clutch-hitting.

Clutch hitting, which most believing SABR-metrician's still believe DOES NOT exist, sure threw it's weight around in this series, and I believe it begins with the plate discipline #'s (K%, BB% and hitting approach) all of which Rutgers hitters displayed often this weekend.

The data points above cover pretty much all aspects of the game, offense, defense and special teams.

If you add the errors, stolen bases and wild pitches to the RC formula as an additional OB (I don't know what the exact weighting would be for these events so approximate),for opponents you move the Opponents Runs Expected to 6.70. The rest of the disparity likely resides in the elusive clutch-hitting metric (RISP).

The plate discipline disparity is reflected somewhat in the OBA components of RC formula and displays itself on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. For that reason, I still feel that focusing on the "process" side of the ball rather than the "results" side. Which dovetails to my last point for this week...

From last week's missive, we identified that the three JUCO transfers posted a 2-25. This weekend, 3-21. We've seen this movie last year somewhat with guys named Maberry, Marabell and Hurwitz. To my memory, only Hurwitz came out of the gate banging, and he was platooned with Clark. That's one of the reasons that every time the 2020 JUCO's told me there was no difference between D1 and JUCO, I was wary.

Of course, you want players to believe that and play accordingly. If you look at the complete season stats from 2019, you wouldn't have guessed that they struggled out of the gate.
If they don't let the numbers get into their head, and maybe squeeze the bat a little less tight, things will happen. Hits fall in bunches too, sometimes. That's baseball.

Some good things happened over the weekend:

• The 'Strays SWOOPLife Live baseball commentator Drew McDonald and I were discussing the series before the game and Drew mentioned that Eddie Miller had not pitched yet in the series and if a save opportunity did not present itself he might not go until Tuesday against South Carolina. I had hoped that they stretched him out more innings over the course of the season for Eddie's future baseball playing prospects. He pitched 48 innings last year with the departed Trace Norkus picking up 34 IP in some high-leverage spots. I think he needs to pitch at least 1.0 innings per game played, which would be at least 57 IP for the season. As it turned out, they stretched him out four innings Sunday.  A hybrid, non-traditional closer role might be good, and Miller did not look like he would shy away from an enhanced workload.

• Tucker Horsley's HR was a bolt of lightning. We need another RH power bat in the lineup and if he can deliver it, either from behind the dish or 1B, so be it. He looked good behind the dish on scout day and pre-season. I know that's different from game-speed, but the bat spoke, good and loud.

• It's amazing how many runs can be scored without hearing the term "launch-angle". Rutgers demonstrated that and put a couple of balls over the fence. If some of these modern hitters would push away from YouTube or the Twitter-hitter debates they might realize that last years UNF team demonstrated a negative correlation between FB and OPS and a positive correlation between GB and OPS. I can increase the sample size  but a couple of studies have demonstrated and MLB scouts will tell you that the reason it is hard to scout hitters is that works at the college level is fundamentally different than what works for MLB hitters. But that's not what we're feeding kids today -- solid fundamentals -- were feeding them marketing gimmickry disguised as knowledge.

What to watch out for:

• Rutgers became the first non-conference opponent to come in and sweep North Florida at Harmon Stadium since Hartford in Feb. 2016.

WEEK ONE: Tough Weekend for the BirdsofStray...: and me (TOTO Edition)

JACKSONVILLE, FL - It could have been worse. Maybe a walk-off balk call from walking away from the series 1-2 instead of 2-1 (It was a balk!! Watch the replay, he flexes the back knee twice, plus other balky moves prior.) The week starts with projections, prognostications and watch-lists, so that's as good a place as any to start. I agree with the "best news" analysis from Baseball America about Eddie Miller.

from Baseball America:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-atlantic-sun-conference-college-baseball-preview/

The best news on the mound for UNF is the return of closer Eddie Miller (1.31, 8 saves), who set the single-season ERA record for the program with his performance last year. The return of catcher Tanner Clark (.306/.407/.398), who was an effective part of the lineup in a limited role last season, will help, but UNF’s offensive success will likely be closely tied to the success of power-hitting junior college transfers in first baseman Trey Spratling-Williams and third baseman Ricky Presno.

I also agree with the assessment of Tanner Clark and the afterthought about the infusion of talent from the JUCO ranks, but first let's flesh out the analysis from graduation of last year. The Birds of Stray lost five productive mainstays from last year lineup due to graduation.

Gory Math details:

Based on their OBA/SPct and # of AB's these five hitters produced almost 18 Wins above Replacement (WAR). Replacement being the "next man up" or next best available bat after the first nine starters (since we DH). WAR is calculated by multiplying (OBA * Slugging Pct * # AB's) to come up with Runs Created attributable to that players production. Approximately 9 Runs Created equals 1 Win, so RC / 9 = WAR. You can adjust each hitters raw RC (and therefore WAR) by adjusting AB's to 200. 

So, losing Wesley Weeks, Alex Reynolds, Chris Berry, Tanner Murphy and Jay Prather sets the 2020 Ospreys back about 18 wins, but creates the opportunity of about 1,050 AB's or five new lineup slots open to competition.

Presumably, returning upperclassmen from the prior year scarf up the spots. But five is a lot of slots. The best RC or WAR values from returning players are shown above and after adjustment to 200 AB's, we see what appears to be 14 of the 18 wins coming back except for two things. Maberry is gone to parts unknown, for reasons unknown, taking 3.60 WAR and a productive RH bat with him. The 3.60 WAR gets replaced, but at ~ 1.95 replacement level. So now, we're down 5.65 because of some stupid childish shit or a lack of leadership. Self-inflicted wounds are the worst.

But wait, there's more.

As Baseball America alludes to, Tanner Clark blah, blah, blah "in a limited role"  presumably with Hurwitz, also a C, also a LH hitter, so it's not a pure platoon role that limited him. I'm not sure they aren't questioning why one can't DH while the other C's so you can share the catching workload while not losing a productive bat. Don't know what other factors might be in play, but in a perfect world they both get 200 AB's in a season rather than 200 in total. Doubling both of their AB's this year would recapture about 3 of those lost wins. That's a simple lineup optimization fix. Once again, avoid self-inflicted wounds, your opponent will make enough of them for you.

So, five lineup openings, Marabell and May plus either Clark/Hurwitz or Clark and Hurwitz, gives you at worst two, maybe only one JUCO that must step forward and produce. More AB's flowing to Hurwitz and Clark starts to tip the lineup a bit to the left side. Given that the three most prominent JUCO hitters (Presno, Spratling-Williams and West) are also LH poses a bit of a lefty-righty dilemma.

Given that a) runs will be harder to come by this year versus last and b) it's hard to see too many instances of subbing for defense, it seems that lineup optimization to squeeze out as many runs as possible is Priority 1 ahead of platooning or defensive substitutions.

Last years team missed Win Expectation by 2.50 Wins last year based on the RC formula from above and applying the Pytagorean Theorem for Baseball to calculate Wins Expected. The difference there could arise from a couple of blowouts skewing the data or optimizing your lineup to produce the most runs possible.




If we assume that the pitching staff holds opponents to roughly the same numbers (ceteris paribus) as last year, which is not unrealistic, We get the following numbers as far as RC -> opponents RC -> Est. Win Pct -> Est. Wins. We did lose quite a bit of talent on the pitching side, but the returning pipeline of talent seems to be there to replace the graduates.

Pitching has some runway to regress back to 2019 numbers while hitters will have to improve into the teeth of opposition pitching that gets tougher as the schedule gets longer. Same is true for the pitchers about batters faced, but they have some breathing room for now. I thought we would fatten up the hitting statistics in this series, but that's in the past. If the staff can hold the fort on their side, especially early in the season, the hitters don't have to do as much early and the talent has time to acclimate.

And yes Virginia, there is a difference between JUCO and D1 Baseball. If you don't believe me see Jeff Zimmerman's FanGraphs article from 6/28/2016 on the subject where he found that transitions from JUCO to D1 averaged:

-.063 AVG,  -.057 OPB,  -.067 SLG, K's +4.5% of ABs and BB% -0.6% of AB's

Those numbers would be acceptable off a weekend where our JUCO hitters posted two hits in 25 AB's. It's still early and anybody can be almost anything over the course of 40 AB's, even in the major leagues. You need to see where everyone stands after 400 AB's.

ESPN with Record Viewership for 2018 NCAA Baseball Super Regionals – College Baseball Daily

JACKSONVILLE - This is good news for college baseball in a quest to becoming a "revenue" sport in the college ranks. Perhaps soon to follow is an increase in the number of scholarships made available to the sport that will be more in line with reality rather than diversity gerrymandering.

MLB appears to be doing it's part to promote the college game with the announcement that it is moving a Royals game to Omaha to help promote next year's CWS. This follows the Williamsport, PA game to promote Little League Baseball specifically and youth sport generally.

from collegebaseballdaily.com

http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2018/06/15/espn-with-record-viewership-for-2018-ncaa-baseball-super-regionals/

ESPN with Record Viewership for 2018 NCAA Baseball Super RegionalsBrian Foleyby Brian FoleyJune 15, 2018June 15, 2018

FROM ESPN PRESS RELEASE The 2018 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship rewrote the record books last weekend (June 8-11) as ESPN's coverage of the 2018 Super Regionals became the most-watched round-of-16 since the network began covering every game from the round nearly 10 seasons ago* and delivered the most-watched Super Regional game in nearly the same time period.

The eight, best-of-three series (23 games) which determined the College World Series field, averaged 449,000 viewers a game, not only setting a new viewership record, but also increasing viewership 40% from the same round a year ago. The four-day, high drama action concluded with the heart-stopping Game 3 showdown between Southeastern Conference rivals Auburn and Florida (June 11 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN) which averaged 891,000 viewers, the most-watched Super Regional game in nine seasons. The audience peaked at 1.3 million viewers as the teams were in extra innings at McKethan Stadium (11:15-11:30 p.m.). The Florida Gators' Austin Langworthy hit a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning to send the defending National Champions back to Omaha.

New Orleans and Birmingham led the way among markets during the Super Regionals with a 1.3 and 1.1 local rating, respectively, for the entire round. The complete top markets:

Rank Market DMA Avg. Rating
1 New Orleans 1.3
2 Birmingham 1.1
3. Memphis 0.9
4. Nashville 0.8
Greenville-Sprtnburg-Ash 0.8
Charlotte 0.8
Jacksonville-N. Brunswk. 0.8
8. Norfolk-Portsmth-N. Nws 0.7
Greensboro-High Point 0.7
Louisville 0.7

ESPN's coverage of all rounds of the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship is up 34% from last season heading into the College World Series, including the regional round viewership, which was up 9% on ESPN's rated networks from last season's regional round (27 games).**

ESPN's exclusive coverage of the 2018 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship continues with the College World Series Presented by Capital One, beginning Saturday, June 16 at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN. For the 16th consecutive year, ESPN will provide coverage of every game in the College World Series, resulting in potentially 17 games over a 12-day span. ESPN is the home of 24 NCAA Championships, with the College World Series closing out the 2017-18 college sports season.

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2018 Dick Howser Award Finalists Announced – College Baseball Daily

I like Joey Bart's chances here, although you would think that Auburn RHP and #1 pick overall Casey Mize has a really good chance as well.

from collegebaseballdaily.com
http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2018/06/07/2018-dick-howser-award-finalists-announced/

2018 Dick Howser Award Finalists Announced

OMAHA, Neb. (NCBWA) – Five collegiate stars (three from 2018 NCAA Super Regional contenders) are the finalists for the 32nd annual Dick Howser Trophy presented by The Game Headwear in balloting by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association in conjunction with the Dick Howser Trophy committee and the St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce.

Catcher Joey Bart of Georgia Tech, Texas second baseman Kody Clemens, Auburn starting pitcher Casey Mize, Florida starting pitcher Brady Singer and Illinois first baseman Bren Spillane are the five finalists for the prestigious 32nd annual awarding of the Howser Trophy.
The winner will be announced on Saturday, June 16, at a 10 a.m. (CDT) national news conference at TD Ameritrade Park – home of the 72nd annual NCAA World Series.

Each finalist embodies the major principles of character, leadership, desire, and competitive spirit exhibited by Dick Howser, the All-America shortstop and later head coach at Florida State before managing the Kansas City Royals to the world championship in 1985. He also is the namesake for Dick Howser Stadium at FSU.

Bart, who was the second overall pick in the MLB draft earlier this week, was named a finalist for the Johnny Bench Award for the nation's outstanding collegiate catcher. He also was named the Atlantic Coast Conference Player-of-the-Year after hitting .359 with a team-high 16 home runs and drove in 38 runs. A junior, Bart also was tabbed by the ACC as the league's Defensive Player-of-the-Year and was a first-team All-ACC selection. He has been named to both the Baseball America and Collegiate Baseball All-America squads.

The Buford, Ga., native led the ACC in hitting and was second in slugging percentage (.632) and hits (79), and was in the top 10 in home runs, runs scored and on-base percentage (.471). He posted a season-high 16-game hitting streak, the longest of the year for a Yellow Jacket player, and totaled 24 multi-hit games on the season overall, which included a pair of multi-home run games in which he blasted two long balls at Mercer on April 10 and on the road at Virginia on May 14.
A solid defensive catcher, Bart posted a .992 fielding percentage on the season, threw out 12-of-33 would-be base stealers and recorded three pickoffs from behind the plate.

Clemens, who led the Longhorns to their first Big 12 conference title since 2011, spurred Texas to the Super Regional round as a junior, hitting a team-high .346 with 21 home runs and driving in 68 runs. The Houston native was selected by Detroit in the third round of the MLB Draft and was honored as the Big 12 Player-of-the-Year and named to Baseball America and Collegiate Baseball's All-America teams. A Golden Spikes Award finalist, Clemens defensively has been a stalwart at second base, helping turn 68 double plays, which ranks third in the nation.

Mize, a first-team All-Southeastern Conference honoree, was the first overall pick by the Detroit Tigers after posting a 10-5 record and posting a 2.95 earned run average. He has struck out 151 batters in 109.2 innings, while helping the Tigers to the Super Regionals against top-seed Florida. Mize was named a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, was a first-team All-America selection by Baseball America, while Collegiate Baseball slotted him on its second team.
His 151 strikeouts not only lead the SEC and rank second in the country, but are also tied for the third most in a single-season in program history. Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Springville, Ala., native has struck out 260 batters and issued only 21 walks. Along with his strikeout total, Mize also leads the SEC in strikeout-to-walk ratio (12.58), strikeouts per nine innings (12.39) and WHIP (0.81). His strikeout-to-walk ratio and WHIP are good for second and third in the country, respectively.

Mize has turned in a quality start in 10 of his 16 trips to the mound and has gone the distance in three games this season. He took the mound on March 9 vs. Northeastern and turned in the ninth no-hitter in program history while totaling 13 strikeouts without issuing a walk. The 13-strikeout performance against the Huskies was one of six outings with 10 or more strikeouts this season, including a record-matching 15 strikeouts vs. Vanderbilt on May 4. Mize joined former Auburn pitchers Mark Chapman, John Powell, Tim Hudson and Chris Bootcheck in the 15-strikeout club and was the first SEC pitcher to accomplish the feat in a conference game since 2012.

Singer was the SEC Pitcher-of-the-Year and a first-round selection of Kansas City, earning first-team All-America honors from Baseball America and Collegiate Baseball. Baseball America's National Player of the Year led a talented Florida staff with an 11-1 record in 14 starts, while fashioning a 2.27 ERA and holding opponents to a .188 batting average. The Eustis, Fla., native finished with seven or more strikeouts in eight games, had a season-high 11 strikeouts against Vanderbilt and also had 10 strikeouts against Kentucky. His 10 SEC wins led the conference in the regular season and helped him earn First Team All-SEC honors. Other career awards included 2017 All-SEC Second Team, College World Series All-Tournament Team and Academic All-SEC.

Singer's career numbers to date are equally as impressive with a career record of 21-8, ERA of 3.18 and 265 career strikeouts in 264.2 innings pitched. His 265 career strikeouts ranks seventh all-time at Florida.
Spillane posted a strong season at the plate, hitting .389 with 17 doubles and 23 home runs, while slugging a NCAA-leading .903. Spillane was named Big Ten Player of the Year, Collegiate Baseball's National Player of the Year and Baseball America listed the junior on its first-team All-America squad. Spillane was honored as the Big Ten's Player of the Year and selected by Cincinnati in the third round of the MLB Draft.
He is the first player in program history to win a national player of the year award and the first Big Ten player drafted in 2018. Spillane was the first player in Division I to slug over .900 in a season since 2009. The Wheeling, Ill., native's rare combo of speed and power helped him become the first player in Illini history to have 15 homers and 15 steals in a single season.

Recent finalists for the Dick Howser Trophy have included the likes of standouts Clemson OF Seth Beer (2016 winner, first freshman to receive Dick Howser Trophy), Wake Forest 3B Will Craig, Louisville UTIL Brendan McKay, Kent State P Eric Lauer, and Texas A&M 3B Boomer White; and 2015 aces Arkansas OF Andrew Benintendi (winner), UCLA RP David Berg, Vanderbilt SP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt SS Dansby Swanson and Miami (Fla.) 3B David Thompson.
The Howser Trophy was created in 1987, shortly after Howser's death. Previous winners of the Howser Trophy are Mike Fiore, Miami, 1987; Robin Ventura, Oklahoma State, 1988; Scott Bryant, Texas, 1989; Alex Fernandez, Miami-Dade Community College South, 1990; Frank Rodriguez, Howard College (Texas), 1991; Brooks Kieschnick, Texas, 1992 and 1993; Jason Varitek, Georgia Tech, 1994; Todd Helton, Tennessee, 1995; Kris Benson, Clemson, 1996; J. D. Drew, Florida State, 1997; Eddy Furniss, LSU, 1998; Jason Jennings, Baylor, 1999; Mark Teixeira, Georgia Tech, 2000; Mark Prior, P, USC, 2001, Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson, 2002; Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern U., 2003; Jered Weaver, P, Long Beach State, 2004; Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska, 2005; Brad Lincoln, P/DH, Houston, 2006; David Price, P, Vanderbilt, 2007; Buster Posey, C, Florida State, 2008; Stephen Strasburg, P, San Diego State, 2009; Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice, 2010; Taylor Jungmann, P, Texas, 2011; Mike Zunino, C, Florida, 2012; Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego, 2013; A.J. Reed, Kentucky, 2014; Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas, 2015; Seth Beer, Clemson, 2016; Brendan McKay, Louisville, 2017.

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2018 Super Regionals Sites and Schedule Announced – College Baseball Daily

The Sweet Sixteen Baseball style includes some really good match-ups, assuming the pitching aces aces go full throttle.

• Florida vs. Auburn could showcase Casey Mize vs. Brady Singer. 
• Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State is a battle of two SEC powerhouses. 
• Arkansas vs. South Carolina is another SEC tilt. 
• Cal State Fullerton vs. Washington is a battle of two west coast powers. 
• Atlantic Sun champion Stetson challenges North Carolina, Logan Gilbert gives them a punchers chance. 
• Texas Tech vs. Duke and Texas vs. Tennessee Tech are both battles of Texas v. Cinderella.
• Oregon State vs. Minnesota is another powerhouse vs. Cinderella story. 

At least one of the Cinderella's will go on a run and try to replicate what Coastal Carolina did. I like Stetson's chance to fill the bill in that category, especially if their pitching shows up large. 

from collegebaseballdaily.com
http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2018/06/05/2018-super-regionals-sites-and-schedule-announced/

2018 Super Regionals Sites and Schedule Announced

INDIANAPOLIS—The eight super-regional hosts were announced today by the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee. The following four super regionals will be played Friday, June 8, Saturday, June 9, and Sunday, June 10 (if necessary). The national seed is indicated before the team name, while updated records through the regionals are in parenthesis.
GAMES BEGIN FRIDAY, JUNE 8 – All times are Eastern
*Game times and ESPN Network subject to change
No. 14 Minnesota (44-13) at No. 3 Oregon St. (47-10-1)
5 p.m. (ESPN2), 9:30 p.m. (ESPN2), *9 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 11 Stetson (48-11) at No. 6 North Carolina (41-18)
11 a.m. (ESPN2), Noon, (ESPN2), *Noon (ESPN2)
Washington (33-23) at Cal St. Fullerton (35-23)
2 p.m. (ESPN2), 6:30 p.m. (ESPNU), *9 p.m. (ESPNU)
Mississippi St. (35-26) at Vanderbilt (34-25)
8 p.m. (ESPN2), 9:30 p.m. (ESPN), *6 p.m. (ESPN2)
The following four best-of-three super regionals will be played Saturday, June 9, Sunday, June 10, and Monday, June 11 (if necessary).
GAMES BEGIN SATURDAY, JUNE 9 – All times are Eastern
*Game times and ESPN Network subject to change
Auburn (42-21) at No. 1 Florida (45-18)
Noon (ESPN), Noon (ESPN), *8:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Duke (44-16) at No. 9 Texas Tech (42-17)
3 p.m. (ESPNU), 6 p.m. (ESPNU), *4 p.m. (ESPN2)
South Carolina (36-24) at No. 5 Arkansas (42-18)
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2), 3 p.m. (ESPN), *7 p.m. (ESPN)
Tennessee Tech (52-10) at No. 13 Texas (40-20)
3 p.m. (ESPN2), 3 p.m. (ESPN2), *1 p.m. (ESPN2)
The determination of the Men's College World Series order of first-round games both Saturday, June 16 and Sunday, June 17, will be announced Monday, June 11. The ESPN family of networks and www.NCAA.com/cws will release the CWS game dates and times as soon as they are available. The 72nd College World Series begins play Saturday, June 16, at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska.
2018 NCAA Baseball Tournament

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2018 NCAA Baseball Regionals: Day 3 Updates – College Baseball Daily

It looks like Duke is giving Georgia a run for their money in their own backyard. That would be almost as big a surprise, but not quite the same devious pleasure, as Florida State getting jacked in front of their own faithful. Duke as lovable underdog? That's weird.

from collegebaseballdaily.com
http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2018/06/03/2018-ncaa-baseball-regionals-day-3-updates/

2018 NCAA Baseball Regionals: Day 3 Updates

Throughout the third day of the NCAA Regionals we will give an update for every team, and what will be next for the winners and losers of each game.
LAST UPDATE: 4 p.m.
All game times are central.
Gainesville Regional (DAY 3 COMPLETE): Florida – Singer threw 7 strong innings and hung on to beat Jacksonville 3-2. Will play FAU on Monday at 12.
Jacksonville (ELIMINATED) – Battled with Florida, but lost 3-2. Lost to FAU in rematch.
FAU – Took care of Columbia 11-2 in an elimination. Took down Jacksonville to stay alive. Will play Florida on Monday at 12.
Columbia (ELIMINATED) – Lost 11-2 and are eliminated.
Raleigh Regional (AUBURN ADVANCES): NC State (ELIMINATED) – Avoided elimination beating Northeastern 9-3. Beat Army. Lost to Auburn15-7.
Auburn – The Tigers dismantled Northeastern 13-4, led by Steven Williams. Casey Mize gave up 1 run over 7 innings as the Tigers cruised to victory. Up 7-0 in the 4th against NC State.
Northeastern (ELIMINATED) – Were eliminated by NC State with a 9-3 loss.
Army (ELIMINATED) – Pulled off the upset over NC State 5-1. Lost to Auburn. Lost to NC State.
Lubbock Regional (Texas Tech Advances): Texas Tech – Powered their way past New Mexico St 9-2 and then pounded Louisville. TOook care of Louisiville 11-6.
Louisville (ELIMINATED) – Won 13-6, but then lost to Texas Tech. Took care of Kent State. Lost 11-6 to Texas Tech.
Kent State (ELIMINATED) – Hung on to beat New Mexico St 2-1. Lost to Louisville.
New Mexico St (ELIMINATED) – Two-and-out.
Athens Regional (DAY 3 COMPLETE): Georgia – Powered their way by Campbell 18-5 after trailing early. Came back to beat Troy 11-7. Will play Duke at 12 on Monday.

Duke – Battled back to beat Columbia 16-8 and stay alive. Fell behind early but have come back to beat Troy 15-6. Will play Georgia at 12 on Monday.
Troy (ELIMINATED) – Beat Duke 6-0, but blew a lead late and lost to Georgia. They also lost their best pitcher, Andrew Crane, due to injury in their first game. Surrendered an early lead and lost to DUke.
Campbell – (ELIMINATED) Lost 18-4 to UGA. Blew an 8-1 lead against Duke and  lost.
Fayetteville Regional (ARKANSAS ADVANCES): Arkansas – Beat Oral Roberts 10-2 and took care of Southern Miss. Hung on to beat DBU 4-3.
Southern Miss (ELIMINATED) – Won 9-0. Nick Sandlin was brilliant. Offense went silent against Arkansas as they lost 9-0. Lost 9-4 to DBU.
Dallas Baptist (ELIMINATED) – Destroyed Oral Roberts 18-9. Beat So Miss. Battled but lost to Arkasnsas 4-3.
Oral Roberts (ELIMINATED) – Lost to Arkansas 10-2 and DBU 18-9.
Greenville Regional (DAY 3 COMPLETE): East Carolina (ELIMINATED) – Won 16-7, but then lost 4-2 to USC. Eliminated by UNCW 9-7.
South Carolina – Came from behind to beat Ohio State 8-3. Beat  ECU 4-2 with a brilliant performance by Cody Morris. Will play UNCW at 12 on Monday.
Ohio State (ELIMINATED) – Lost an extra innings game 4-3 and are eliminated.
UNCW – Had a dramatic 4-3, walk-off win in extra innings against Ohio State to stay alive. Held on to beat ECU 9-7. Will play South Carolina at 12 on Monday.
Austin Regional (TEXAS ADVANCES): Texas – Won easily. Nolan Kingham was sharp as the Longhorns cruised by Texas A&M 8-3. Took a 3-2 lead in the 8th and held on to win.
Indiana (ELIMINATED) – Pauly Milto threw a complete game shutout as they avoided elimination with a 6-0 win over Texas Southern. Scored 9 in the first and held on to beat Texas A&M 9-7. Fell behind 3-2 in the 8th and left the bases loaded in the 9th to lose.
Texas A&M (ELIMINATED) – Stayed hot and beat Indiana 10-3, but was embarrassed by Texas 8-3. Gave up 9 in the first, and battled back, but lost 9-7.
Texas Southern (ELIMINATED) – Lost 6-0 and are eliminated.
Oxford Regional: Ole Miss – Took care of Hogan Miller and Saint Louis 9-2. Held on to beat Tenn Tech 9-8. Will play the winner of Tenn Tech-Missour State at 12 on Monday.
Tennessee Tech – Scored two in the eighth to beat Missouri State 6-4. Lost a tough game 9-8 to Ole Miss. Just underway against Missouri State.
Missouri State – Couldn't complete the comeback and lost 6-4 to Tenn Tech. Got a walk-off hit to beat Saint Louis 9-8. Just underway against Tenn Tech.

Saint Louis (ELIMINATED) – Lost 9-2 to Ole Miss and lost on a walk-off 9-8 to Missouri State.
Stanford Regional: Stanford – Won game one in extras. Lost on a walk-off home run to Cal State Fullerton. Held on to beat Baylor 4-2. Down 5-0 to CSU Fullerton in the 7th.
Baylor (ELIMINATED) – Took care of Wright State 11-5 to stay alive. Lost 4-2 to Stanford.
Cal State Fullerton – Beat Baylor 6-2 as Colton Eastman was dominate. Got a walk-off home run to beat Stanford. Up 5-0 on Stanford in the 7th.
GO JUMBO GO! #RoadToOmaha— NCAA Baseball (@NCAACWS) 2:39 AM - Jun 3, 2018 Wright State (ELIMINATED) – Lost a tough game in extras against Stanford, and then were eliminated by Baylor 11-5.
Conway Regional (WASHINGTON ADVANCES):Coastal Carolina (ELIMINATED) – Suffered an 11-6 loss to Washington, and then lost a tough one 6-5.
UConn (ELIMINATED) – Avoided elimination with a 10-3 win over LIU. Defeated Coastal 6-5 to stay alive. Ran out of gas late and lost to Washington.

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAACWS) 3:26 PM - Jun 3, 2018 Washington – Impressive 11-6 win over Coastal. Broke up a 6-6 tie in the 8th with a bases clearing hit to win 9-6 and advance.
We're SUPERS BOUND!!!
— Washington Baseball (@UW_Baseball) 9:13 PM - Jun 3, 2018 LIU Brooklyn (ELIMINATED) – Lost to Coastal and UConn and are eliminated.
Clemson Regional (VANDERBILT ADVANCES): Clemson – Got a walk-off win in the 10th against Morehead State, but lost 4-3 to Vanderbilt. Won a close 9-8 game against St. John's. Lost 19-6.
Vanderbilt – Behind a brilliant pitching effort by Drake Fellows, Vanderbilt beat St. John's 2-0. Came back from down three to beat Clemson 4-3. Destroyed Clemson to advance. Connor Kaiser hit a grand slam and had 9 RBI.
St. John's (ELIMINATED) – Lost 2-0 to Vanderbilt, but beat Morehead St 11-5 to say alive. Lost a close one 9-8 to Clemson and are eliminated.
Morehead State (ELIMINATED) – Lost a tough game in extra innings against Clemson, and then lost 11-5 to St. John's.
Tallahassee Regional (DAY 3 COMPLETE): Florida State (ELIMINATED) – Lost 7-6 to Samford. Cole Sands left this game in the 3rd with an injury. Drew Parish tried to finish a complete game after sitting through a rain delay and gave up a 3-run, walk-off home run.
Mississippi State – Lost a wild game to Oklahoma 20-10. They were leading 10-7 going into the 7th. Didn't scored for the first 8 innings and then hit a 3-run, walk-off home run to eliminate Florida State. Hung on to beat Samford 9-8. Forced a sudden death game against Oklahoma on Monday at 12.
Oklahoma – After blowing an early 5-0 lead, the Sooners ended up scoring 20 runs to beat Mississippi State and win 20-10. Beat Samford 4-0. Lost to Miss St. Will play against on Monday at 12.
Samford (ELIMINATED) – Maybe the upset of the day taking down Florida State 7-6 in Tallahassee. Lost to Oklahoma 4-0. Come back fell just short in a 9-8 loss to Miss St.
Chapel Hill Regional (NORTH CAROLINA ADVANCES): North Carolina – Took care of business against NC A&T winning 11-0. Hung on to beat Houston 4-3. Won a sluggfest against Houston to advance.
Purdue (ELIMINATED) – Lost 9-1. Beat NC A&T 14-4 and faltered late to lost 8-4 to Houston.
Houston (ELIMINATED) – Won first game 9-1. Couldn't complete the comeback against UNC. Broke up a 4-4 game in the 8th to win 8-4. Tried to make an epic comeback but ran out of steam and lost.
NC A&T (ELIMINATED) – Lost 11-0 to North Carolina and got beat by Purdue.
Deland Regional (STETSON ADVANCES): Stetson – Won 8-3 over Hartford. Logan Gilbert had plenty of run support as they took care of Oklahoma St. Destroyed Ok St to advance.
South Florida (ELIMINATED) – Left a ton of runners on base early and couldn't catch up to Oklahoma State as they lost 9-2. Blew a late lead, but went on to beat Hartford in extras. Lost 6-1 to Ok State.
Oklahoma State (ELIMINATED) – Impressive 9-2 win over South Florida. Lost to Logan Gilbert and Stetson. Beat USF 6-1. Ran out of gas and lost to Stetson.
Hartford (ELIMINATED) – Played a couple of competitive games in this regional but dropped both.
Minneapolis Regional (MINNESOTA ADVANCES): Minnesota – Beat Canisius 10-1. Came back to beat UCLA 3-2 in extras. Broke away late to beat UCLA and advance.
UCLA (ELIMINATED) – Scored 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth to walk-off 6-5 over Gonzaga. Lost 3-2 in 10 to Minn. Ran out of gas and fell short against Minnesota.
Gonzaga (ELIMINATED) – Was beating UCLA almost the entire game before the Bruins walked it off. Beat Canisius 8-2 to stay alive. Lost to UCLA again and are eliminated.
Canisius (ELIMINATED) – Lost 10-1 and 8-2.
Corvallis Regional (OREGON STATE ADVANCES):Oregon State – Bryce Fehmel started on the mound for Oregon State as they won 9-3. Luke Heimlich is dominated LSU as they won easily. Breesed past LSU to advance.
LSU (ELIMINATED) – Beat San Diego State 6-4, but are lost to OSU. Came back in the 9th to beat N'western State. Couldn't get anything going against OSU pitching and lost.
San Diego St (ELIMINATED) – Lost a close 6-4 game to LSU, and were shutout 9-0 by N'western State.
Northwestern State (ELIMINATED) – Lost 9-3, but bounced back to trounce San Diego St 9-0. Blew a one-run lead in the 9th and were eliminated by LSU.
2018 NCAA Tournament

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Liberty Announces Move To Atlantic Sun Conference

This is a good move for UNF and the Atlantic Sun Conference. Liberty in exchange for South Carolina Upstate is a move you make all day, every day. Adding North Alabama would seem to indicate there is either another addition or subtraction pending. Both Liberty and North Alabama are good adds as far as raising the conference profile, as the story indicates. Somehow, I feel as if NJIT is not a great fit. But that's just me. 

from baseballamerica.com

Liberty Announces Move To Atlantic Sun Conference:

Liberty will next school year join the Atlantic Sun Conference, the school announced Thursday. The Flames have been a member of the Big South Conference since 1991.

With South Carolina-Upstate this fall announcing it would move from the Atlantic Sun to the Big South next school year, the conferences have essentially swapped teams in a move that seems to make sense for everyone.

North Alabama will also join the A-Sun next year as it begins its process of reclassifying from Division II to Division I, though the Lions will not be postseason eligible until 2023.

Liberty’s addition also helps the A-Sun on the diamond, where it has been ascendant in the last two years. Florida Gulf Coast had a breakthrough year in 2017, rising to No. 11 in the Top 25 and advancing to regionals for the first time as a Division I program. This year, both Jacksonville and Stetson have been ranked in the Top 25 and are on track to reach the NCAA Tournament, which would be the first time since 2013 the conference received multiple bids in one season.

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Este es un buen movimiento para la UNF y la Atlantic Sun Conference. Liberty a cambio de South Carolina Upstate es un movimiento que realiza todo el día, todos los días. Agregar North Alabama parecería indicar que hay otra suma o resta pendiente. Tanto Liberty como North Alabama son buenos agregados en cuanto a elevar el perfil de la conferencia, como lo indica la historia. De alguna manera, siento como si NJIT no fuera una gran opción. Pero así soy yo.

Atlantic Sun Conference gets some love from Baseball America: College Baseball Rankings Top 25

But it's not the right team from Jacksonville. Oh well...USF Bulls slide in at #20 with Florida #1 and  and Florida State #17, both inside the top 20.

from Baseball America:
College Baseball Rankings Top 25:

25

Jacksonville

Atlantic Sun

Notes:

Last week: 4-0
Overall: 28-13, 6-3 in A-Sun (1-3 vs. Top 25)
Weekend series: 9-1
Results
April 17: @ (1) Florida: W 8-4
April 20-22: @ Saint Louis: W 3-2, W 7-4, W 3-1
Upcoming
April 27-29: New Jersey Tech

Week in a sentence: Jacksonville built on its momentum from a key conference series win last week against Florida Gulf Coast with a 4-0 week on the road that started with a win in Gainesville and finished with a sweep of Saint Louis, which leads the Atlantic-10 Conference.

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