Entering the bottom of the eighth inning in the Wild Card game, the Royals had about a three percent chance of winning. Clearly, they defied the odds in that game, and chances are the Royals will win the ALDS -- it will be very difficult for the Angels to overcome a 0-2 deficit, especially with the next two games in Kansas City. Ned Yost is effectively playing with house money, as just about every steal and sac bunt the Royals have attempted turned out their way.
Historical percentages suggest this level of success can't be maintained, but if the Royals continue to have success with these plays, the odds won't matter -- success or failure dictates the odds and not the other way around. The Royals are winning with their brand of baseball, and if that success can be sustained, they can go a long way. The odds suggest the success can't be sustained -- so don't tell them the odds.
A great Malcolm Gladwell article titled How David Beats Goliath references a study done by political scientist Ivan Arreguín-Toft. Toft studied 200 years of “asymmetric conflicts” on the battlefield. As a lifelong fan of the underdog, I was curious about the numbers behind the “itʼs why they play the game” adage. It turned out David may just be the new Goliath. Three things jumped out:
Power is good, but itʼs no guarantee. Davidʼs odds werenʼt as bad as youʼd think. Of the 200 conflicts studied between 1800-2003, David won 28.5% of the time.
The times (and odds) are changing. Between 1800-49, the stronger side won 88% of the conflicts studied. That number dropped to 80% between 1850-99 and dropped (again) to 65% between 1900-49. Between 1950-99, it dropped, wait for it, to only 49%. Now, on average, the strong side possessed ten times the power – where “power” is measured in terms of armed forces and population – than their adversaries. And between the years 1950-99, they lost more than they won.
Itʼs about making your own rules. Why would you play by the rules that Goliath has already won on (see: Google)? When a David wins, it tends to do so by changing the rules. In his study, Toft found that by choosing an unconventional strategy, the underdogʼs winning percentage went from 28.5% to 63.6%.
71.7 career WAR/42.2 7yr-peak WAR/57.0 JAWSAverage HOF SS (out of 21) = 66.7 career WAR/42.8 7yr-peak WAR/54.7 JAWS
The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe — first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 — as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history. The stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness.A great day for baseball and a great day for the Yankees. On top of the hoopla of Mariano Rivera's career victory lap maybe some in the greater N.Y. metropolitan area are suffering from hoopla fatigue, but the fact that it seems to bother America's biggest bitch / whiner / bed-wetter / equal opportunity ball of hate Keith Olbermann makes it all the more appropriate to me.
Baseball is without Don Zimmer now. He died Wednesday at age 83. After his heart surgery in April, Zimmer remained hospitalized because of fibrosis in his lungs. His son, Tom Zimmer, told the Tampa Bay Times that his father went peacefully. "He just faded away."
In Major League Baseball, however, Zimmer will do no such thing. He'll be remembered as a treasure of the game. Commissioner Bud Selig called him one of the game's "most universally beloved figures." Jim Leyland said there's no better person in life than Zimmer. Pick someone in baseball, anyone, they're saying good things about Don Zimmer right now.
Zimmer won six World Series, a manager of the year award and was an All-Star twice. Zimmer played with Jackie Robinson and coached Derek Jeter, bookends of a baseball life that can't be duplicated.'via Blog this'
David Ortiz says he thinks his Boston Red Sox will benefit from Robinson Cano joining the Seattle Mariners, calling it "great news for us" but a blow to the rival New York Yankees.
Ortiz, speaking in an interview with WEEI Radio in Boston, said the Yankees lost "the face" of the team when they failed to re-sign the free agent second baseman, who has reportedly agreed to a 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle.'via Blog this'
"— Via CSN’s Ahmed Fareed, an interesting story from the Wall Street Journal on balls and strikes, and it includes this note: “Yankees closer Rivera has been helped this year by the fact that 14.3% of his pitches taken outside the zone have been called for strikes, an MLB high.”
When I was writing about Rivera the other day, I asked Pence for his memories from his lone matchup with the Yankees closer.
“I struck out looking,” he said, smiling. “On a ball.”"'via Blog this'
Soriano needed 144 at-bats to reach 13 RBIs this season with the Chicago Cubs on May 14. Back for another tour with the Yankees, it took him seven trips to the plate over nine innings the past two nights to match that number.
To Logan Morrison, the suspensions and shame and loss in salary might not be enough. To really deter them, the Miami Marlins' first baseman suggests clubs pay a price, too.
''Maybe penalizing the teams for guys who signed - like Melky signing that $16 million deal - maybe the team should have to give up something,'' Morrison said.
QUOTE TO NOTE: "The only person I could compare him to is Robin Yount. His work ethic, he cares to win, prepares every day, prepares to make him a better player. Robin is the only other guy that I have been around that did the same thing every single day." -- Manager Dale Sveum, on LF Alfonso Soriano, who was on the verge of being traded to the Yankees.
The Cubs were said to be getting a mid-level prospect, most likely a pitcher, and perhaps some salary relief from Soriano's contract, which is in season No. 7 of the eight-year, $136 million deal he signed in November 2006.
Soriano is batting .254 with a team-leading 17 homers and 51 RBIs, which were second to Anthony Rizzo on the team. His 181 homers as a Cub rank 11th on the team's all-time list. Soriano also won the admiration of the current management team for his work ethic and professionalism. Former GM Jim Hendry and the previous ownership signed Soriano. Epstein took over baseball operations in the fall of 2011.
"He's 100 percent completely different than I thought," Sveum said of Soriano. "There hasn't been a day of disappointment in his attitude, his work ethic, what he brings to younger players, and his professionalism has been off the charts.
"There's no doubt, he's one of the top five ultimate professionals I've been around in this game."'via Blog this'
Now the focus has shifted to Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez.
The evidence against the 14-time All-Star is ”far beyond” what the league had against Braun, according to ESPN.com. However, the Yankees don’t expect Rodriguez to be suspended immediately, sources told the website.
ESPN.com is also reporting that, according to sources, Rodriguez could very likely face a suspension similar to Braun’s.
An MLB source told CBS Evening News’ Jim Axelrod, however, that the five-time American League home-run champion could be looking at a lifetime ban.'via Blog this'
The rank and file are outraged enough that, for the first time, there is the suggestion that steroid cheats should have to pay with their contracts. Up until now, baseball contracts have been sacrosanct, as in unable to be voided.Then it wouldn't surprise me in the least if some "surprising new" information comes to light about the suddenly mortal, but equally as filthy locked-in rich as A-Rod -- Albert Pujols. Then we'll see if the the union ( and it's members ) bites back or if by then it will be too late and they will realize they have been out-foxed and out-maneuvered into adopting a TSA-NSA style position of "if you're not guilty, you have nothing to worry about".
With Alex Rodriguez facing new allegations related to performance-enhancing drugs, the New York Yankees are mulling ways to void the remainder of his massive contract, ESPNNewYork.com reported.
"Giants GM Brian Sabean, the former Yankees' scouting director, was Quinn's first hire. Dick Tidrow, vice president of player personnel, was a former scout and pitcher for the Yankees. Dave Righetti, the pitching coach, is a former Yankees star. Hitting coaches Hensley Muelens and Joe Lefebvre and first-base coach Roberto Kelly are former Yankees. So is advance scout Steve Balboni.
"If you pin Brian down," Quinn sai, "he'll tell you the Yankee way ain't all that bad. Brian is old school. That's the way we did things in New York. He's taking the same motto we used in New York. SDSD. Scout, draft, sign and develop."
It might have been the New York dictum, but the Giants have perfected it. The Giants' legacy will be forever remembered, with a flair of New York style."
prima donna: a vain or undisciplined person who finds it difficult to work under direction or as part of a teamMaybe A-Rod was trolling for lip gloss and / or lingerie suggestions to make him feel more comfortable and enchance flagging self-esteem while performing under the stress of playing for over-demanding NY fans.
"Yesterday, the New York Post reported that A-Rod was flirting with a blonde girl in the stands behind the dugout after he was pulled out of the line-up at Saturday night's game.
The Post followed up and found the girl that A-Rod reportedly tossed a baseball to with his number on it.
Her name is Kyna Treacy and she's a model and runs her own bikini line called Kini Bikini."
On the definition of a "slumpbuster", after being pressed by host Jim Rome in a now-infamous 2003 interview on the television show "Rome is Burning" to clarify the baseball slang term (this is the "official" word-for-word transcript from the interview)...
"A slumpbuster is if a team's in a slump, or if you personally are in a slump, you gotta find the fatest, gnarliest, grossest chick and you just gotta lay the wood to her. And when you do that, you're just gonna have instant success. And it could also be called jumping on a grenade for the team."
The Red Sox and Dodgers orchestrated the most sensational August trade in baseball history, an orgy of superstars and mega-salaries in which two flagship franchises defined their current identities with all the subtlety of an MMA fight.The recalibrating Red Sox and go-for-it Dodgers opened themselves to both instant and long-term analysis off of this nine-player blockbuster inspired by cable TV money. Boston signed Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to their current outsized deals, in large part, to feed the beast of NESN while the Dodgers accepted those contracts in near total because of a cable deal expected to be finalized this winter that could make the Yankees’ YES arrangement look like something the bunny-eared antenna dragged in.
.......
Which is the other area in which the Mets — and their fans — are losers here. Six months ago, the Mets and Dodgers were lumped in as big-city financial disasters; the Mets because of their owners’ relationship with Bernie Madoff and the Dodgers because of their miserly owner, Frank McCourt. But in late March, the Dodgers were sold for more than any other sports franchise ever, $2.15 billion, to the Guggenheim group. At that time an NL personnel chief told me, “Watch, they want to and will become Yankees West.”
And they have. The new ownership gave Andre Ethier a five-year, $85 million extension. They signed a Cuban they had not scouted in person, Yasiel Puig, to a $42 million contract. And since late July, in trades, they have added Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, Randy Choate and now Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett and Nick Punto. The price tag for all of that, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported, is $432 million — or $12 million more than McCourt bought the team for in 2004.
"But this great New York Times 3D video goes a long way in demonstrating the effectiveness of his pitches by giving us a batters-eye-view of the pitches, from when the swing has to start to where the ball will eventually be when it gets to the batter.
Wonderful stuff.
-30-"
George Steinbrenner, best known as the fire-and-brimstone owner of the New York Yankees, also dedicated himself to helping youth athletes live out their dreams. When Steinbrenner found out about a cause, he always opened his pockets — whether it was Little Leaguers or high schoolers playing in a state title game. He even annually held a banquet for high school coaches that featured eye-popping prizes. Here’s a look at some of Steinbrenner’s most notable efforts.
Unlike the Major League Baseball landscape he forcefully roamed, Steinbrenner’s utopian vision of prep athletics wasn’t segregated into haves and have-nots.
Steinbrenner, himself a former coach, delighted in giving all kids the opportunity to perform on the grandest stages. Case in point: the fall football jamboree he financed five years (1994-98) at Tampa — later renamed Houlihan’s — Stadium.
Each year, eight to 10 Hillsborough County teams would converge at the stadium on a rotating basis, so every school would get a chance to play on NFL turf and suit up in an NFL locker rooms.
“We were about to go on the field, and he’s sitting on a metal folding chair,” recalled Robinson coach Mike DePue, then a Knights assistant. “I went over and thanked him and he said, ‘This is what I do.’ He was just a generous man.”
For the past 21 years, Steinbrenner hosted a coaches banquet for Hillsborough County public and private school coaches.
For many, the event — affectionately known as the “coaches prom” — was the highlight of the year. About 25 prizes were given away at each banquet, including trips to New York and Hawaii and even a car.
The event now draws about 1,200 annually.
At Bob Sheppard's last Mass Thursday, his friends and family were reminded what it was like to be in the presence of "a good and decent man" who, as a husband, father, athlete, wartime naval officer, teacher and public address announcer, lived about the most perfect life, for 99 years, as anyone God ever placed on this Earth.
It was just too bad that not a single player whose name Sheppard introduced, ever so properly and eloquently, over 57 years as the Yankees' P.A. announcer, was among those paying their final respects to the "Voice of God." Even if one player - certainly one among the former players employed by the team for this very purpose - would have shown up, it would have provided the touch of class George Steinbrenner always made sure to exhibit in these circumstances.
It's been a tough week, no doubt, for the Yankees, who are mourning the loss of Steinbrenner, which came on the heels of Sheppard's death on Sunday. Sheppard, especially, probably would not have felt slighted that no player, past or present, was among the hundreds paying their respects at the Church of Saint Christopher in Baldwin, L.I.
As his son, Paul Sheppard, put it: "My father was a man of such humility. He could not understand why anyone would want his autograph."
His words, deliberately delivered and echoing, served as a baseball "On your mark." Once Sheppard had spoken, the game could begin. He did for elocution what Loretta Young did for elegance, Benny Goodman did for swing, what Rogers and Astaire did for dance and what Mantle did for switch-hitting. Sheppard was from then, and he extended "then" so that it could be appreciated into the 21st century.
"He adds elegance to the game," Tim McCarver said. "The best words to describe his introductions are 'eloquent' and 'elegant.'"
With George as president, the company flourished, but sports remained an itch he had to scratch. He was a multimillionaire by the early 1970s when he tried to buy the Cleveland Indians for $9 million. Luckily for him, the Indians turned him away at the door. Looking east, he saw that the struggling New York Yankees, barely a .500 team, were for sale -- and that the chairman of the Columbia Broadcasting System, William Paley, wanted out of the baseball business. Steinbrenner might have been spurned by the Indians, but he got his quick revenge, stealing off with the one Indian the team could least afford to lose: general manager Gabe Paul. Paul brokered the deal that gave the Yankees to Steinbrenner and his partners for $8.7 million, a steal given that the franchise would be worth more than $1 billion in less than 30 years.
Sara Carbonero, a beautiful sideline reporter and girlfriend of Spanish goalkeeper Iker Casillas, is being blamed by some fans for Spain's shocking World Cup loss to Switzerland on Wednesday.
The Guardian reports that the gorgeous sportscaster is accused of distracting her boyfriend by being so close to the field before and during the crucial match. Casillas allowed the game's only goal, and Spanish fans are worried that Carbonero could be to blame.
The Spanish beauty later shot back at critics, dismissing claims that she "destabilized the team" as "nonsense."
After the game, Carbonero interviewed her boyfriend and asked him about the team's unexpectedly lousy performance. On live TV, she asked her lover, "How did you muck this up?" (Video of the interview -- in Spanish -- is below.)
Spain's former coach also criticized the team after the surprising loss, telling reporters that the team didn't have "enough conviction" against the Swiss.
Casillas is not the only World Cup goalkeeper whose performance is said to have been affected by romantic complications. English goalie Robert Green may have been torn up by his split with a young lingerie model when he allowed an infamous goal to the United States.
