Giants drop close one to Braves, 9-0 | McCovey Chronicles

 

I am growing a bit weary of the mantra that the Giants -- individually or in aggregate -- are the "unluckiest" team on the face of the earth.

Let's review the facts:

• They ended the last half of the 2016 with the worst record in baseball.
• They have started the first half of this season with the worst record in baseball, except for the pesky Phillies who at least had the decency to finish strong last season.
• Combined, this gives us the worst record in baseball for almost a full season worth of games.

Luck shows up in the short-term or in a short series. That's why the playoffs are such a crap shoot and the "best team" on paper doesn't always win.

Skill demonstrates itself over the long-term. Small sample sizes go bye bye and conclusions can be drawn. 

My conclusion: This team sucks. They are not unlucky, the are lesser skilled than their opponents.

Some in the blog-osphere are coming around to this conclusion. Like Grant over at McCovey Chronicles. 

from McCovey Chronicles:
https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/6/19/15835200/giants-recap-why-are-you-even-reading-this

The thing about bad teams is that they can keep it close. It's not like every 100-loss team is down 9-0 before the fifth inning of every game. That's not how baseball works. Most wins and losses are built incrementally. A misplay here. A missed location here. A double play with the bases loaded there. They build and build and build, and you wonder, hey, maybe this is just bad luck! 

No. You have watched bad baseball before. You have watched good baseball before. This is the former. I will admit to being someone hoping for bad luck in the second half of last season, but it's been almost a full calendar year. This team is abysmal.

There is another option in play and I hesitate to bring it up because it calls into question the professionalism of the individuals involved. As Micheal Mauboussin describes in his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing if you can lose on purpose, skill dominates the activity, if you can't lose on purpose then luck likely dominates that activity.

From Michael Mauboussin:

There’s a simple and elegant test of whether there is skill in an activity: ask whether you can lose on purpose. If you can’t lose on purpose, or if it’s really hard, luck likely dominates that activity. If it’s easy to lose on purpose, skill is more important.

Could the Giants be losing on purpose? Not like throwing games on purpose, but is the team chemistry so out of whack from the glory years when this was virtually Team Chemistry to the current version that appears to be a something constructed by the young ladies from Mean Girls? 

I'm just asking. It seems a little more likely than some of the other alternatives. A lot of guys are playing like they have just literally forgotten how to play baseball (Matt Moore, Derek Law, Hunter Pence). They certainly have forgotten how to play at the level they once performed at, so what gives?

In fairness, we do tend to say a winning team has "good chemistry" and the total is greater than the sum of the parts when they out-perform our expectations (some SABR types default to "luck" here).

Is it possible that since the Giants are grossly under-performing even our most modest expectations over the last full season of games that somewhere bad team chemistry is at work?

If that's the case, the Giants front-office needs to tinker with the roster. The bullpen is an absolute shambles right now. Melancon, Law, Osich all have terrible ERA/WHIP whatever your pet stat is. Osich makes me long for Will Smith and he's a big LHP who can't get LH hitters out.

The only guys I have some confidence in are Strickland, Guerrin and Kontos.

The starting pitchers are a mess. Cueto is crumbling under the weight of carrying the staff in Bumgarners absence, Samardzia, even though .he's cleaned it up lately, seems to lose his way just long enough to lose his way. Matt Moore has totally lost his way and Matt Cain is still doing it with smoke and mirrors. It's as if hitters who've been around for a few years are saying "That's Matt Cain? Really dude?" and swinging at the old Matt Cain stuff. Once they adjust, it's game over for Matty, Except that we owe him a lot of money and management seems to want to get at least some ROR on the money. Greedy capitalists!! It;s what Bernie's been telling us all along!!

Anyway, the pitchers should be suing the hitters for non-support. Or is this another example of bad luck run amok? Eight guys all swinging the bats like it was a wet newspaper or a girls purse simultaneously? What are the odds of that happening? No productive outs, no clutch 2 out RBI. Hell, most nights, hardly any RBI at all. What gives?

Maybe it's time for an intervention of some kind. We've tried a good, old-fashioned bench clearing brawl and that didn't turn out too well. Maybe Dr. Phil is available.

Or Peyton Manning:
https://www.hulu.com/watch/1603
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/united-way/n12129?snl=1

Matt Duffy sends Giants on happy flight

The difference between a 7-3 home stand versus a 6-4 record, especially after the Gigantes started 4-1 would have been huge. For that reason, this was a clutch hit. But Matt Duffy has proven to be a clutch hitter and you wonder how long Bochy can continue to hold the door open for McGehee and keep this kid out of the lineup. I don't get it, but I don't make out the lineup.

For me, for now, Duffy would be in the lineup until he dips under .250 or McGehee hits over .250, which could be a while since .200 seems to be busting his balls at the moment.

FREE MATT DUFFY!!!

from ESPN.com
Giants get 2 in the 9th to edge Marlins 3-2:

"That's sweet when it makes for a really nice homestand," San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy said. "If we lose that one, it's so-so. Those guys in the ninth inning found a way. I thought it was huge win for us."

'via Blog this'

Duffy comes clutch for Giants in Arizona, Dodgers fall big in Colorado

Giants snap tie in 9th, beat Arizona to narrow gap

San Francisco Giants' Matt Duffy follows through on a two RBI base hit against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the ninth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2014, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Brandon Crawford does the heavy lifting, but Duffy comes through in the clutch. He makes a great adjustment to the slider on 3-2, the pitch that has been giving him fits, it seems, so this was a great AB in a HUGE spot for the Giants. 

http://m.giants.mlb.com/sf/video/v36341383/?partnerId=as_mlb_20140917_31827946

Given that the Dodgers were getting pasted in Colorado and the Pirates were doing similar versus the Sawks, this was beginning to look and feel almost like a MUST WIN situation. UBER-clutch and I say that knowing how my brethren in the SABR crowd feel about clutch. 

The Giants have to keep driving forward toward the series in LA, while keeping their eye on the rear view mirror at the Pirates. The schedule seems to favor the Giants and work against the Pirates, mainly because the schedule puts the Dodgers in front of them for three more in LA. Go in there only one down and taking two of three puts you in a tie, with the Giants ending at home versus the Padres and the Dodgers at home versus Colorado. 

It is becoming readily apparent that the Giants injuries and lack of good options at the trade deadline (per Sir Brian) have allowed the prospects to prosper. Now if we can only get a hot streak / big hit for Adam Duvall, I would really feel good about going into this off-season as far as the roster looks going forward. Having these guys waiting in the wings not only gives the organization great flexibility, it gives Sabean great leverage in negotiations with free agents as far as securing quality players at a reasonable price, whether it's retaining your own or luring somebody else.  

Buster wanted to go home, hits a walk-off HR

Dude is clutch, I don't care if the SABR-cats can't find it, can't define it, can't quantify it, whatever.

The best HR call in baseball from Kuip BTW.

http://m.mlb.com/video/?topic_id=28898650&content_id=35736917?topic_id=28898650

BUSTER POSEY IS CLUTCH!!! Figure it out !!! He's been doing it for quite some time now.

It's good to be Buster Posey

It must ALWAYS be good to be Buster Posey.

It must be better to be Buster Posey after hitting a walk-off HR to beat the Dodgers in your own yard.

from Yahoo Sports:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sfs-posey-hits-walk-off-070038186--mlb.html

"It's a good feeling," said Posey, who was well aware of never having hit a walk-off homer since his days in the Giants' minor-league system. "It was already a long game."

In fact, the walk-off hit was the first of any kind for Posey as a big-leaguer. This one was historic -- the first leadoff, game-ending home run in San Francisco since 1976.

Such a great AB, the KNBR commentators had gone the entire AB gushing about how tough Belisario would be to take yard -- no HR's against all season. He goes 3-2 to Posey while tossing two pitches that can only be described as Belisario's best Ryne Duren imitation ( they hit the backstop) and yet our hero prevails.

This is the best video I could find, it may not be on long:


Yeah, if I was Buster, I guess I'd be polishing the trophy a lot too.

This is just who he is and this is just what he does. And the SABR-cats say there is no such thing as clutch hitting (although it was his first walk-off HR -- but that can't be the only criteria). They just don't know Buster Posey!! Get you calculators out fellas and enjoy the analysis.

Anytime you can end your night doing this to the Dodgers, that's a GOOD night. It's nice to see the umpires join in on the fun once in a while --  you go run along now Nick Punto. Don't you be arguing with an umpire like that. Classic!!

The Dodgers had a tough night. But not as tough as this guy. Close, but not this bad.




Beat LA, beat LA indeed.