Is it time to start calling him "Big Game" Bumgarner?

Why not? The stats don't lie. He's been as tough as nails in the post-season since he arrived on the major league scene. Sometimes overshadowed by Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum, but never under-appreciated by his teammates or the fans.

from Giants Extra:
POSTGAME NOTES: Forget retirement, Ishikawa is now making a push for another ring; Bumgarner slams Cardinals - Giants Extra:

I found this to be incredible: Bumgarner has made nine postseason starts for the Giants and four of them were shutouts (he went nine in one of the four). “You know, he’s so good at what he does,” Bochy said. “He executed all night against a tough lineup. He’s a guy that you want out there to start things and he gave us all we were asking.”

In the past week, I’ve heard a lot of Bumgarner’s teammates say they’re thrilled that he’s getting so much notice nationally. He’s now officially one of those guys, the Lesters and Verlanders and others with reputations for coming through in the postseason. (On a related note: Why does James Shields get the ‘Big Game’ nickname? Seems there are better options.)

'via Blog this'

On this play with Kolten Wong, it went without mention by the genius commentators at Fox, but:

a) Wong was inside the baseline, not in the running lane where he belonged when the contact was initiated. If anything Wong is interfering with Bumgarner rather than Bummer obstructing Wong.

and

b) Perhaps if the Cardinals didn't waste the umpires time reviewing this play, they would have been more focused on what was going on ie: the phantom Bumgarner balk. Replay will never totally remove the human element from the game and it is not outside the realm of possibility that the crew was mentally replaying the prior play with Wong in their mind to prepare for the post-game analysis and commentary and just whiffed on the mini-balk when it snuck up on them.  

And it was a balk, IMO. However, unless it was mysteriously ruled a three-run homer balk, the Cardinals still have no chance of coming back. So there. 


http://m.mlb.com/video/v36795853/nlcs-gm1-bumgarner-nearly-balks-before-fanning-cruz

I get that these guys don't know the rules, and if Tim McCarver over the years wasn't proof positive enough, then Harold Reynolds spinning a web of rule book ignorance trying to explain the early inning drop / catch by the Cardinals RF should be the final straw. If you don't understand the definition of a catch, you have no business whatsoever trying to explain the rule book, much less question umpires judgment. And he spun himself a nice little 180 there BTW by trying to imply that the rule book was a bit tricky there. No Harold, the rule book is pretty black and white there, it's your understanding, or lack thereof, that is a bit sketchy. Nice try though.

Note to MLB: Do what the NFL does and have a rule book expert on stand-by for these "tricky" replay scenarios. It would help the credibility of the broadcast.

Nice picture of Ishakawa with the Eagle backdrop as well as a great back-story to yesterdays game and that being the story behind Ishakawa's last and likely final chance in this latest stint with the Giants. It goes to show that sometimes there is a thin line between success and "what might have been" in baseball. Good to see Ishakawa having this type of success.

BTW2: Did anyone else pick up on Verducci mentioning Romo and the persistent use of the slider by saying "you could wake him up from an afternoon nap" and he could throw that pitch? And how is that not at least a subliminally offensive comment given Romo's Mexican heritage? I mean, he didn't mention a pre-game nap or any old time of the day nap, but a siesta. Maybe Romo can wear a T-shirt to voice his displeasure.  I hereby lodge a political correctness protest on Mr. Romo's behalf and demand an immediate apology from Fox Sports for the offensive comment against the Mexican-American community in general and Sergio Romo specifically.

For future reference (definition of a catch):

A CATCH is the act of a fielder in getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly holding it; providing he does not use his cap, protector, pocket or any other part of his uniform in getting possession. It is not a catch, however, if simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such collision or falling, drops the ball. It is not a catch if a fielder touches a fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then is caught by another defensive player. If the fielder has made the catch and drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball shall be adjudged to have been caught. In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional.

Rule 2.00 (Catch) Comment: A catch is legal if the ball is finally held by any fielder, even though juggled, or held by another fielder before it touches the ground. Runners may leave their bases the instant the first fielder touches the ball. A fielder may reach over a fence, railing, rope or other line of demarcation to make a catch. He may jump on top of a railing, or canvas that may be in foul ground. No interference should be allowed when a fielder reaches over a fence, railing, rope or into a stand to catch a ball. He does so at his own risk.

If a fielder, attempting a catch at the edge of the dugout, is “held up” and kept from an apparent fall by a player or players of either team and the catch is made, it shall be allowed.

 

Baseball analyst blames rise in home runs on climate change

Give yourself a star if you guessed Tim McCarver.

I guess we can file this under "Stupid Stuff Tim McCarver Says". Good grief. At least he doesn't pretend to be an expert on the weather. I think Timmy needs a brain surgeon himself. I swear -- with some of the stuff this guy comes up with -- if they put his brain in a bird, it would fly backwards.

Maybe he's positioning himself for a spot on the Gore-McCarver 2016 Presidential campaign.

Too guys (over) filled with hot air. It's a match made in heaven.

Baseball analyst blames rise in home runs on climate change:

"Tim McCarver wrote "Baseball for Brain Surgeons and Other Fans," but he's not a real scientist, which is why it was a surprise to hear the national Fox announcer (and former catcher) opine that climate change is leading to more home runs. McCarver says "climactic changes" of the last 50 years are making the ball "carry farther than I remember," although he acknowledges it "hasn't been proven yet." It's certainly not better training, performance-enhancing drugs or McCarver's bad memory. It's the weather."

Sorry Timmy, you're not smarter than the average (polar) bear.

Game 4: Giants - Rangers or "A Night with a Tortured Giants Fan"

Today, I'll just write my thoughts as the game progresses. That should be entertaining. I'll try to filter the language for the young people. But hey, NO GUARANTEES.

Fox Pre-Game nonsense:

We can't even get to the first pitch before I'm ready to turn the sound off on these guys.

First, in pre-game Eric Karros makes me reach for something to throw at him by saying, 'Whoever wins this game, is going to win the series'. Maybe Mr. Karros doesn't read my blog, but it's Game Five that becomes the pivotal game and that's IF the Rangers win Game Four. Sheesh, and this guy played in the bigs, he should understand momentum.

Then Buck and McCarver do the pre-game happy talk and Buck says that Bochy doesn't want to go to Game Five versus Cliff Lee even up at two games apiece. Certainly not the preference, but correct me if I'm wrong here Bucky-beaver:
a) the Giants beat Cliff Lee and
b) the Giants will have Tim Lincecum on the mound, a guy who does a lot to inspire confidence in a manager.

My wife says they are just trying to build drama and interest for the casual fan, who if we believe the initial rating returns (second lowest rated WS game), are not watching anyway. But by doing that, they lose credibility in the eyes of the knowledgeable, hard-core baseball fans who certainly are viewing these early games. A delicate balancing act, I suppose.

I put the remote outside of my immediate reach, since I won't be flipping tonight, and these guys are under my skin already.

Burrell and Sandoval are on the pine, replaced by Nate Schierholz and Travis Ishakawa. Right now, the right thing to do. Burrell has been a windmill for most of the playoffs. Sandoval has been one for most of the season. All about the approach. Both are hot / cold, 'all or nothing' type hitters as a result. Burrell is more patient at times, so his recent demise is more surprising. Plus he has been in the World Series before. Kudos to Bochy for utilizing the bench when he needs it.

1st inning: I don't know what Posey is looking for up there, he seems to be taking some hittable pitches lately and putting himself into bad counts.

Both pitchers searching for the whereabouts of the strike zone. Can't say that either pitcher is at fault. Blue seems to be a little tight today. Maybe they're getting paid by the hour tonight.

2nd inning: Giants catch a break on the Ishakawa DP, not called on the 1B side. Out by a quarter stride, that call has to be made at this level.

Hamilton makes a great catch to save a run in CF. Both pitchers are struggling with the umpires tight strike zone so neither one may go more than six innings. Hopefully, that favors the good guys innings 7-9. Keep it close guys and steal it in the end.

Umpire opens it up (a little) in the second, he must be hearing it from both sides. He's not calling pitches on 'the black' or on the border of Foxies Pitch Tracker service. Nobody will bitch if you call that one. And you don't get graded as a miss, within the margin of error.

Bumgarner still pitching behind too much. That's going to come back to bite him. We'll see who gets an easy inning or two first. Top of the order in the third for the Gigantes, gotta make something happen.

3rd inning: Torres leads off with a double and I finally agree with the announcers, 'why is Sanchez bunting?' This isn't Lee - Lincecum dealing aces where one run is precious. Swing away, Boche!!

The Rangers scouting report on the Giants must be littered with 'sliders away'. And that would make it a decent report. Sanchez battling. Usually good things happen for hitters when you see > 5 pitches in an AB. Nope. He doesn't move the runner, pulls it to 3B and grounds out. Bad AB.

HUFF JOINS THE PARTY THE WAY WE LIKE!!! ALBEIT SANS THONG. CRUSH DADDY!!! GIANTS 2-0.

Posey looks at borderline strike three. Pitch Tracker confirms, outside by quite a bit. That's what happens when your approach is confused up there. You lose the benefit of the doubt. Not much doubt about that one though. I thought catchers usually get the benefit of the doubt. Maybe not in the bigs. Or maybe Buster's not smelling so nice back there today. ;) I wouldn't want to see Bumgarner and Posey get crossed up. Somebody could get hurt back there. Nah, stakes are too high to screw around here.

That's a Ball / Strike miss and a Bases miss so far. One in favor, one opposed. They even out long term, but short term - still BRUTAL.

Fox shows the classic Nolan Ryan - Robin Vetura bout which Ryan won by TKO. CLASSIC!! There are some things that never get old.

Bumgarner settling in. A breezy third inning.

4th Inning: Uribe just missed one. He didn't think so, he struck the pose before he left the batters box, but the wind may have knocked it down. Now Hudson breezing, a rocket grounder to the 2B, two quick outs. Rangers bullpen busy already. Can't take any chances tonight.

Renteria hits a long single, nice play by Cruz to hold him there. Had double written on it. Cruz got out his eraser. Could be a big play, that doesn't show up in the score book.

Schierholz down quick two strikes. Now 2-2, not bad, making him work. Lazy fly ball ends the Giants half.

Young busts the no-no, not by much, great effort. Another great effort by Sanchez to get one on the tag of Young. Hamilton hit a rocket that Bumgarner deflects to Sanchez. One on, one out.
Vladdie tries to tie it with one swing. Bumgarner makes him chase. Good pitch. The change-up is so very underrated.

POSEY THROWS A SEED TO SECOND TO NAIL HAMILTON TRYING TO STEAL!!! NICE CATCH / TAG BY SANCHEZ.

If he's not the Rookie of the Year, a crime has been committed. I know the ballots must have been cast before all this happens, but how dumb do you have to feel now if you didn't vote for this kid and you see what he's doing in this environment. He didn't get demonstrably better overnight, right?

5th Inning: Ogando the new pitcher for Texas. Giants looking for a tack on or two. Torres hits a lazy fly. Sanchez up. Hey how many times do you see a guy make a great play in the field and bat second in the next half of the inning? OH, SHUT UP SLAVIK!!! No, I won't!!! Mathematically and in real-life it happens about as expected: about 11.1% or 1/9th of the time. In other words, it's a relatively random occurrence when the guys leads off, we just attach more weight or notice it more when it does happen, giving the impression that it happens more frequently than it actually does.

While I was typing that Stat 101 / human behavior / mind tricks primer, Huff struck out meekly, making Ogando look like an All-Star. Weak half inning offensively. TORTURE RETURNS!!

Speaking of which, I'm a bit torn here. I hope that isn't the only hit Bumgarner gives up but I don't want to see him get hit any further. Ross screws me up further with a great defensive play to rob Ian Kinsler. Way to screw me up further Cody!!! I love 'The Cody Ross Experience' And I kind of hate Kinsler. Maybe it's the hair. Or his demeanor. I'd like him if he played for us though, so don't go pissy on me Ranger fans.

Bungarner finishes the fifth economically. That helps. If he give six, all good, Seven and I might go all Chris Matthews and get a tingle up my leg. I'm sorry, that's just not something a man should say about another man. Don't remind me about some of my Buster Posey posts or things I've said in the past about Phil Simms, that's different. Simms won a Super Bowl, dude. So it's all good.

6th Inning: Speaking of Posey, weak grounder to third. They have a good report on him so far. Or kryptonite. Ross goes for the downs, on a ball in the dirt. These guys are starting to piss me off. Slider ends Ross. Good advance scouts these Rangers must have. Uribe hacks. Ogando throws a slider to Odessa. So wild he strained an oblique. Dude, a run of the mill slider usually sits Uribe. Just don't hang the sucker. Ogando leaves with a tummy ache. Hockey players worldwide ROTFLAO!!!! Me too. I just consulted my copy of the Rangers advance scouting report on Uribe and it says "pick a slider, any slider, even the cement mixer spinner - anywhere close, he'll hack". Rangers advance scouts worldwide Rolling On The Floor Puking. Not sure if ROTFP is a universally recognized acronym for that, but I have some time to kill while the Rangers reliever relieves himself, or warms up or whatever.

McCarver has a spider over his head, which a) I hope is real and poisonous and b) poised to strike if he says anything stupid, which he is due for. Darren Oliver in relief. Bad stuff happening, we're not capitalizing as Uribe skies weakly to Molina. Baseball gods will not be happy, are poised to strike Giants. You can just feel it. Bumgarner the only thing standing in the way.

Mitch Moreland has another great AB for a single. The Giants should tape his AB's and make their hitters watch it until their eyes bleed. Never mind the 'Tom Emansky: Teaching the Fundamentals of the Major League Swing'. Parts I or II. Just dial into the Moreland approach and good things will follow. Are you listening Hensley?

Another DP, looks like he may have beat that out, though. LOVE THE DP. Umpires best friend. No replay, must not have been as close as it looked. Oh no, here we go. OOPS, BLUE ANOTHER ONE!!! Dude is having a tough night over at first. Maybe that angle is not working out for him.....But,........he's the major league umpire and I'm not. Not to go all teenage girl on you but, 'Life is so not fair'. I wonder how Jacklyn is doing?

7th Inning:
Ishakawa 打席に弱い ( phonetically: Daseki ni yowai ) weak at bat in Japanese. Giants offense is as boring as it is torturous, so I was using some advanced Google features....oh look, Renteria gets another hit. Next game, he bats all times in the order. Schierholtz looks over a slider away, for a backwards-K. What a surprise, that these guys would pound sliders away against the Giants. What are they thinking? Ewwwwweeeee, Torres shoots the gap, double to knock in Renteria. Giants 3-0. And Sanchez taps back to Oliver to end the inning.

Nice rendition of God Bless America for the seventh inning stretch. Texas does patriotism right, we're really going to miss them if things gets worse in this country and they exercise their rights to secede. But I digress. As I often do.

O'Day warming up. He's the kind of pitcher that you love to see coming in and then he shuts you down. Bumgarner K's Michael Young, He's dealing. He got a break on one that Young didn't like, but Bumgarner is getting the benefit of the doubt. Young still had a chance to hit and Bumgarner threw one past him.

Hamilton gets sawed off and Uribe is so distressed, he boots it. That freaking hurt from here. E-Uribe. Bumgarner has to get tough here. He has Guerrero down 1-2.

Tries to make him fish again. No bite. 2-2. Big AB. Misses 3-2. Still just one pitch away.

GOT HIM WITH THE CHANGE!!! HAT TRICK VLADDIE!!!

Don't let up here. Cruz can hurt you. Base hit. Nice piece of hitting by Cruz. Shot it right up the middle

Kinsler brings the tying run to the plate. Strike One. Good pitch. Kinsler not happy. Lazy liner to Cosy Ross ends it. Now, Kinsler has a good reason to be not happy.

BUMGARNER, TOUGH AS NAILS!!!

Casilla warming up in the bullpen. Bummgarner starts the inning for me, somebody has to get on first. Maybe score a run. They may never get to Bummer. We'll see how Bochy handles it.

Eight Inning:
Oliver still in for Texas, Huff grounds weakly to 1B.

The Darren O'Day - Buster Posey match up Part II. Gosh, I hope Buster reads my blog. If he did, he would know exactly what to do.

I outlined it here:
http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2010/10/moreland-explains-his-game-winning-hr.html

Buster Posey also had a disappointing key AB versus Darren O' Day. As soon as Washington brought him in I said I like the matchup, but it was clear O'day wanted to get him on the sidearm curve to the outside corner or darting off the black. Posey made no visible adjustment to his stance or position in the batters box to accommodate that pitch. The guy doesn't throw hard enough to break a pane of glass (easy for me to say, I know) so you crowd the plate more, dare him to fit one through a mail slot to hit the inside corner, at the same time Posey would be in better position to punish the outside corner. Not second guessing, I told my wife before the pitch, when Molina went out to talk, if he throws the curve to the outside corner, he'll get him, he's got to go the other way. And sure enough, he went there, and worse it seems as if Posey tried to pull it instead of going the other way (he may have been out front). Generally, if you try to pull an outside pitch, weak grounders to the pull side or popups ensue. Bad AB.

We shall see if he learned something. If he didn't, I'm going to be REALLY MAD!!! Not so much that he pissed away another AB, but that he doesn't read my blog. THAT WOULD REALLY PISS ME OFF, BUSTER!!!

1-2 pretty quick. No discernible change in approach so I can feel my pulse quicken. Fouls one off.

HOME RUN TO DEAD CENTER FOR BUSTER POSEY!!!!! OMG, MAYBE HE DOES READ MY BLOG!!!!

Or maybe he's just a major league hitter and I'm just a fan writing a blog. But who cares now, right? Giants up 4-0.

Cody Ross goes down, Uribe up. We got the tack on run we've been looking for. Uribe doesn't leave anything on the table with his swing. EVER!!! Have to take the good with the bad, I guess.

Uribe fouls to 1B to end it. Four up with six out left. I like our chances here.

Francoeur leads off against Bumgarner. 2-1 to start. Francoeur just misses leaving the yard to left. One out.

Bengie Molina up. Bumgarner dealing at 91. 1-1 to start. Misses outside 2-1. Still throwing hard. Molina hits an 'at 'em ball ' laser beam liner right at Cody Ross in LF for the second out.

Lopez and Wilson warming up in the bullpen. Bumgarner at 102 pitches. Moreland up for the Rangers. Good AB expected here. 1-2 count to start him. Moreland has him right where he wants him. MadBum misses 2-2 count. Misses in the dirt 3-2. I like this Moreland kids hitting approach a lot. Got him looking.

BUMGARNER IS NAILS!!!!

WE GO TO THE NINTH INNING - GIANTS 4, RANGERS 0!!!

9th Inning: Derek Holland in for the Rangers. Let's see if he can throw a strike. Starts 2-0. Maybe not.He throws a strike and the Rangers fans cheer. I'm detecting sarcasm. He walks Ishakawa. Now I sense building anger and disgust.

Strike one to Renteria. Throws one under his hands strike two swinging. Strike Three looking to Renteria. Looked good. Renteria didn't offer. No argument.

Schierholz up. Painted the black outside to Nate. He stays there he'll get him, lefty / lefty. Schierholz skies to center, two outs.

Torres from the right side. Torres even at 2-2. Fouls a 95 MPH heater off. Looking for a gapper here. Nope, grounds out third to second.

Here we go, onto the ninth, top of the order due up for the Rangers. I think Bumgarner starts the inning. This may be the last game he has to pitch this season. He's a little high in the pitch count, but with the adrenaline flowing, I think I let a batter tell me that he's done for the night, then go to Brian Wilson for the close. That's the Nolan Ryan approach to developing pitchers. Old School. I think I like it here for us too.

Nope. Brian Wilson opens the ninth. Great effort by Bumgarner. Beard don't fail us now.

Elvis Andrus lines to Schierholz in RF for the first out.

Michael Young. Strike One. Misses for a ball. Misses again. Strike Two. Got him with a half swing. Two outs.

Josh Hamilton steps in. Close the deal, Brian. Strike One. Swings at a slider inside, strike two. I think he has him. Got him on a half swing.

WILSON CLOSES!!! BUMGARNER GETS HIS DUE TONIGHT!!!

Giants are up 3-1 and look to close it out tomorrow.

We've been here before and closer actually.

So hopefully the boys take nothing for granted and close the deal.

"Oooo-ree-bay" - Cain is more than able - Redemption for Renteria and Rowand

I'm not sure you could ask for anything more from a game than what the Giants received yesterday. I sat in stunned silence towards the end of it, saying quietly to my wife, "It's as if everything that could go right for the Giants, has gone right". Scary right.

Matt Cain cements his reputation as a top of the rotation, big-time ace pitcher.
Juan Uribe continues to play out of his mind.
Edgar Renteria DOES discover the Marlins post-season magic.
Aaron Rowand delivers a line-drive laser dagger to the 421 sign in right-center.
Buster Posey continues to play Buster Posey like baseball.
The bullpen shows its incredible depth and versatility.

The earlier comparisons to the '69 Amazing NY Mets may not be too over the top. Superior pitching once again. Timely hitting and great defense. Role players coming through when asked. Even down to an opposition potential HR hitting the top of the wall and -- instead of bouncing over the wall the ball bounces back into the field of play, seemingly violating all laws of nature and/or physics. Brings back memories of the 1973 Mets and the "Ball on the Wall" play.

from ultimatemets.com
1973 Regular Season Game 153
September 20, 1973
Mets 4, Pirates 3

http://www.ultimatemets.com/gamedetail.php?gameno=1939&tabno=B

Karma? Magic? Catching lightning in a bottle? Team of destiny? I don't care, take your pick. Call it what you will. I just know its starting to feel real. I can only remember feeling like this about the '69 and to a lesser extent the '73 Mets. (A lesser extent because the '73 Mets lost the World Series, after being perhaps the least deserving team on paper to ever appear in a World Series). The Rangers have had everything go wrong for them short of having a black cat walk past their dugout.

METS V. CUBS 9/9/1969 - THE BLACK CAT GAME

I thought it very Tim McCarver like of Tim McCarver to deliver the stupidest line of the evening. Late in the game, after the Rangers bullpen blowout, he delivers a gem along the lines of "Well pitching is winning this game for the Giants, but not theirs". Is that right? Correct me if I'm wrong Timmy-boy but the score before the meltdown was 1-0. The Rangers ended the evening still stuck on 0. I think the Giants pitching did more than their fair share in winning this game for the Giants by virtue of the fact that -- by pitching a shutout - they guarantee that you don't lose. At worst, we would still be playing. Therefore, I think the Giants pitching did in fact win the game for the Giants, the Rangers pitching just made the game less artistic --something more akin to a Spring Training "B" game for the last couple of innings.

Granted the Giants caught a bit of a break when Wilson raised a blister, but that may be symptomatic of the problem the Rangers are facing. The scene from Hoosiers where the coach measures the height of the basket at the big time arena and tells his players "Same height as the basket you guys are used to". What got you here should be good enough to get you through. It seems as if perhaps the blister may have raised from squeezing the ball a little tighter, trying to get a little extra movement or a little extra break. In baseball, if you take care of the little things, the big things fall into place. The Rangers are feeling the effect in a negative sense.

Last night, the Rangers relievers had the same look of awe that the Hoosiers team did when they first walked into the big-time arena. Awe-struck and feeling out of place. We'll see if some home cooking set their minds right and puts the wheels back on the cart.

HOOSIERS. CLASSIC!!!

The same thing when the reliever threw 13-14 straight balls (I lost count). Then the deer in the headlights look. The 'WTF is going on?' countenance. The wheels came off and they couldn't put them back on. The next reliever did the same thing. Overcompensation.

I see this a lot in HS or PONY ball. A kid throws a pretty, picture-perfect breaking ball. Then the next one he tries to make it break even better than the last one. Better than perfect. And drives it into the dirt, or hangs it. Overcompensation. Instead of just repetition. Repeat. Lather, rinse, repeat. Over and over again. It's the root meaning of the word mechanics. To be machine-like, perform the same act -- over and over again, the same way each time, with mind-blowing repetition and efficiency.

Whatever it is, the Giants seems to have it and the Rangers don't.
At least for now.

Maybe it's because the Giants have had to play all season on a razor-thin margin of error due to the lack of offense. They've played 'playoff-like' baseball -- minus the playoff intensity -- all season. Now, it's just second nature. I noticed in the Matt Cain post game interview that the first thing Cain did was deflect credit from his own efforts to those of catcher Buster Posey. This is a trait that this team has demonstrated throughout the playoffs. The glory is shared and spread around liberally. Its a nice quality for a teammate to have.

The next game may be the first pitching match-up in a while where I don't think we have an advantage. And that's only because of Sanchez' last outing. Before that he was beginning to show signs of elevating to near the Cain / Lincecum level as a shut down starter. If he comes up big-time / lights out on the road, that will be the start he will be linked to for a long time. If it's anything near the meltdown versus Philadelphia, it will take him a while to shake the hit to his reputation. So Jonathan is -- fairly or unfairly -- facing a World Series opponent on the field as well as one between his ears. He has to contain his emotions and direct /focus them in a positive direction. If he does that, he can carry the franchise one step closer to the prize.

GO GIANTS!!!

Joe Morgan disses Buster Posey in his own back yard

I used to think he was dumb for his reflexively calling the fake-to-third, comeback pickoff to first move as a balk on the one hand and then immediately saying it doesn't fool anyone. Somewhere as a child, little Joe must have been fooled badly by this move and just never got over it.

And I know he has a great reputation for his disdain for statistics generally, preferring to rely on his own biases to determine who is a better player or team.

Whatever system you use, I'm not sure how you conclude that Jason Heyward is a more deserving Rookie of the Year candidate than Buster Posey this year.

Maybe he's talking to Giants announcer Mike Krukow and GM Brian Sabean too much.

Hall of Famer Joe Morgan doesn't place much value on the role of a catcher and its effect on the performance of his pitching staff. Here's a quote from one of Joe's chats about Bryce Harper in particular and the difficulty of the catching position generally.

"Catching is putting the fingers down and catching the ball," Morgan wrote to a catching fan. "Veteran pitchers call their own games in the majors. No one makes the plays for you at shortstop. You get help when you're a young catcher. Managers will sometimes call pitches, like a football coach calling plays. There's more you have to do as a shortstop — it's not the hardest position to play as a young player, but there's more to learn.

It's funny, because the logic that Sabean used to start Posey in the minors were related to the intricacies of catching and directing a major league staff, so it can't be as easy as Joe makes it out to be.

Giants announcer Mike Krukow sure seems to place a lot of value on every tap of the glove and every glance or stance Posey makes in that it might be tipping one of the Giants pitchers deliveries, thereby causing it to be deposited in the bleachers somewhere. The G-men pitching staff is at or near the top of the league in most statistical categories so he must not be tipping off too much to the opponents.

The gist of Hall of Famer Joe Morgan's opinion that Heyward is the more deserving ROY candidate seems to revolve around the fact that Heyward was "winning games" for the Braves while Posey spent the first month and a half in the minors.

A cursory look at the most elementary of stats would reveal that even with this month and a half advantage, Posey has kept up with Heyward.

In 92 G and 346 AB Posey has 13 HR 59 RBI and a .324 AVG
In 127 G and 463 AB Heyward has 17 HR 68 RBI and a .287 AVG

Heyward has a 117 AB head start and is barely leading in the major, Triple Crown categories.

Looking at the secondary stats Posey outslugs Heyward .506 to .477.

In the WAR or Wins Above Replacement player stat, Heyward leads 4.5 wins vs. 2.4 for Posey.

This stat looks most closely at the category Joe was referring to as far as "winning more games" for his team. The stat compares the offensive stats versus what an average player would have produced at the position instead. Posey's lesser number of AB's and his occasional stints at 1B hurt him in this category.

Clearly, Posey plays the more demanding and important defensive position and there is some value attached to that leadership position. Both players hit in the middle of their teams orders and are offensive forces.

The offensive numbers are a virtual dead heat. I believe that by the end of the season when the ballots are cast, that the value Posey has added defensively more than makes up for the slightly less number of AB's and vaults Gerald Demp "Buster" Posey to 2010 National League Rookie of the Year.

I don't care what Hall of Famer Joe Morgan says.

I just continue to wonder who makes the dumber statements during the course of the average broadcast, Joe Morgan or Tim McCarver?

Bad Week for the Yankee Family

First, the "Voice of God", legendary PA announcer Bob Sheppard dies at age 99.

A fitting and well-deserved tribute.

From mlb.com story by Marty Noble

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100711&content_id=12178760&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

His words, deliberately delivered and echoing, served as a baseball "On your mark." Once Sheppard had spoken, the game could begin. He did for elocution what Loretta Young did for elegance, Benny Goodman did for swing, what Rogers and Astaire did for dance and what Mantle did for switch-hitting. Sheppard was from then, and he extended "then" so that it could be appreciated into the 21st century.

When we played baseball on the playground or in the backyard and imitated the sounds of the game, it was Bob Sheppard's introduction of players, complete with the simulated echo, that we all used. Bob Sheppard's voice could also be heard during New York Giants football games.


This is Sheppard's introduction of the Giants prior to the game that would send the Giants to their first Super Bowl vs. the Broncos. Sheppard's introduction was brilliant in its simplicity, with no over the top histrionics. He will be sorely missed.



I have to agree with Tim McCarver here.

"He adds elegance to the game," Tim McCarver said. "The best words to describe his introductions are 'eloquent' and 'elegant.'"

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Then, owner George Steinbrenner, dies yesterday at age 80.

Steinbrenner purchased the Yankees franchise for less than $10 million dollars in 1973 and now the team is worth over $1 billion dollars. This has to rank up there with the 1626 purchase of Manhattan for $24, the Louisiana Purchase by the U.S. Government from France and the 1867 purchase of Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million dollars as among the greatest business deals of all time.

If you look at any one of the metrics employed by the website measuringworth.com that $10M from 1973 would only be worth somewhere between $39M (using CPI or GDP deflator methodology)to $103M (using the relative share of GDP methodology). And yet he turned it into 10 times more if you use the $1 billion dollar value the Yankees would certainly be valued at today.

http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/


Even the price of gold has only appreciated by a factor of about 35 times since 1973. Steinbrenner's Yankees investment has appreciated to 100 times its original value. That's pretty darn good business acumen and execution of a business plan in my book. Thankfully, many others in baseball are beginning to follow the Yankees business plan.

From ESPN.com story by William Nack - "The Reign of 'The Boss' was a wild ride"

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=nack_bill&id=3212872

With George as president, the company flourished, but sports remained an itch he had to scratch. He was a multimillionaire by the early 1970s when he tried to buy the Cleveland Indians for $9 million. Luckily for him, the Indians turned him away at the door. Looking east, he saw that the struggling New York Yankees, barely a .500 team, were for sale -- and that the chairman of the Columbia Broadcasting System, William Paley, wanted out of the baseball business. Steinbrenner might have been spurned by the Indians, but he got his quick revenge, stealing off with the one Indian the team could least afford to lose: general manager Gabe Paul. Paul brokered the deal that gave the Yankees to Steinbrenner and his partners for $8.7 million, a steal given that the franchise would be worth more than $1 billion in less than 30 years.

Whether you loved him or hated him, or his Yankees, he is in the team picture of persons who had the greatest influence on the sport in this generation. Arguably, he and perhaps Marvin Miller had the greatest impact in transforming baseball--sometimes kicking and screaming--into a form of big-time, Hollywood-style entertainment. The big-time revenues and salaries soon followed.

Another big-time loss and serious emotional body blow for the Yankee family.

R.I.P. Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner.

MEASURING TRUE GRIT

It's a rare event when you read an article and immediately think of the classic scene from "When Harry Met Sally" but this is one of them (at least I hope it is).

By the way, for all you guys out there, WHMS is a truly underrated date flick. Strictly from a utilitarian perspective, if after watching this movie with your "date" you ain't getting "it" shortly thereafter -- and by shortly I mean in as short a time after the credits roll as humanly possible so as not to violate any federal, state or local laws -- then you ain't getting "it" (EVER). So at least you learn something.

P.S. - don't get into the "can guys and girls be just friends debate", it's a losing proposition.

Anyway, on to the article:
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http://www.flotsam-media.com/2007/12/flotsam-data-special-tangiblizing.html

Friday, December 21, 2007

A Flotsam data special: Tangiblizing the intangible

Chuck Dickens
Idiot Savant

After Tim McCarver’s month-long David Eckstein sploogefest that was October 2006, a serious investigation into 'grit' was long overdue. Despite the penchant of sportswriters and broadcasters to throw the term around willy-nilly, I was hard-pressed to locate a firm definition of grit in the baseball sense. Using lots of laptop science stuff, I think I’ve improved the definition, which isn’t really saying much, since there wasn’t one to begin with.

First, some definitions to help us focus in on what exactly this 'grit' stuff is.

Gritty
1. Containing, covered with, or resembling grit.
2. Showing resolution and fortitude; plucky: Biggio’s gritty 12-pitch at-bat ultimately resulted in a routine 6-3 groundout.

In keeping with those definitions I’m proposing a new composite statistic: General Requirements of Intangible Talent (GRIT). GRIT incorporates four basic components: dirt, determination, talent, and opportunity.

DATA
I used a modified version of the Sean Lahman dataset that includes player statistics from 1871-2006. My dataset includes player-seasons starting in 1955, the first year for which statistical data for intentional walks and GIDP was available. To chop the dataset down to a manageable size, I limited the number of eligible players to those who have at least 100 plate appearances and 81 games played. This removes pitchers from consideration, but also ensures that an adequate indication of a player’s abilities during each season is evident. Statistics for 2007 were compiled from ESPN.

The resulting dataset includes 13,249 player-seasons with 2,385 unique players represented.

HYPOTHESIS
I hold that gritty players are those who sincerely want to win or succeed at baseball (determination), but due to a lack of natural skill (talent), are forced to do so through the least efficient means possible, resulting in an excessive amount of dirt on their uniform.

DIRT
The most important factor in determining a player's GRIT is his uniform. A player who is "containing, covered with, or resembling grit" will show visible signs of his grittiness on his uniform. Dirty uniforms are good; bloody uniforms are better. A true team player, the gritty player is prepared to sacrifice his body at all costs. This is one of the few ways gritty players are efficient, since they probably aren’t as well compensated as their genuinely talented teammates.

The Dirt Formula

HBP: A hit batter produce minimal gains (one base) with relatively high costs in terms of potential bodily injury. The official colors of gritty players may well be black and blue. And red. And maybe some brown with a little purple and some yellow around the edges, depending on the severity of the bruising.

IBB: Next to home runs, intentional walks are probably the most anti-gritty statistic. Intentional walks are indicative that a player has so much talent that the pitcher would rather give him first base than risk an extra-base hit. Gritty players have to earn every base through hard-knocks, moxie, and a heaping helping of some good ol’ fashioned hustle.

CS/SB stuff (SBINEFF): This is a statistic I call Stolen Base Inefficiency (SBINEFF). This looks for players who like to attempt lots of steals but are largely unsuccessful. Stealing bases produces minimal gains (one base) but comes with greater potential costs by raising the likelihood of being thrown out. Base-stealers (successful or not) also have dirty uniforms from sliding.

DETERMINATION
Gritty players want to succeed. They just happen to not have the talent to actually do so. This results in inefficient baseball plays. For example, Jerry Hairston is gritty. He slides head-first into first base. A true sign of someone gritty enough to want to get to first base, but shitty enough to actually get there efficiently.

The Determination Formula

(Outs – SO): As short in stature as they are on talent, gritty players are determined to put the ball in play at all costs. Additionally, the ball looks gigantic to their tiny, elfin eyes and thus they’re less prone to striking out.

(BB+SH+SF): With their microscopic strike zones, gritty players generate walks (the unintentional ones) at a superhuman rate. Sacrificing oneself is an inefficient (read: gritty) method of moving runners along.

GIDP: Double plays are produced by well-struck balls that are able to cut through the infield grass. Aside from a bottle of hard liquor (eh, Mr. Furcal?) gritty players rarely hit anything well.

Talent – It is my contention that "grittiness" is a subset of talent that cannot translate well statistically. Two players may very well have the same raw amount of grit, but one player may have more tangible talent, making him appear less gritty because the grit is too diluted. Gritty players are those who have the largest concentration of grit. As such, too find the grittiest players, we should look for players who have as little tangible talent as possible.

The Talent Formula

XBH: Extra base hits are über-efficient ways of getting multiple bases.

RBI: Gritty players move runners over, but aren’t talented enough to drive them in.

TB: Total bases is an additional means of counting the overall ability of a player.

(OMS*1000): OMS (OBP minus SLG) is a proprietary statistic I developed for use in GRIT. It rewards players who reach base, but deprecates players who have the talent to get extra bases.

OPPORTUNITY
In order for a player to become gritty, they first need to be on the field. In the words of Ted Williams, "Nobody ever became a .400 hitter without taking the bat off their shoulder." To apply the quote more appropriately here, one might attribute it to Willams' quasi-gritty teammate, Milt Bolling, and change it to read "Nobody ever became a .250 hitter by getting splinters in their ass.” We simply use plate appearances as a representation of opportunity.

After calculating the four GRIT component values for each player-season, the resulting values are then plugged in to this equation:

(Dirt + Determination – Talent) / Opportunity

(read the entire article to see the results. The formula does seem to work to identify true grit-PURE GENIUS)

White Sox take 2-0 lead to Houston

No sooner did expert commentator Tim McCarver tell us (with conviction) that the bad taste of the Albert Pujols walk-off blast was no longer in Brad Lidge's mouth, Scott (No Homers during the Regular Season) Podsednik's blast send thes White Sox to Houston 2-0 and the Astros reeling.

Lidge is going to need some awfully strong mouthwash to rinse the bad taste of these bombs from his mouth. And Joe Buck was correct, Astros manager Phil Garner could and should have given Lidge an oppotunity to get back on the mound prior to the Series.

What may keep this Series close and interesting is now Oziie Guillen may have a similar problem with his closer, rookie Bobby Jenks. Jenks spit out the lead that led to Podsedniks heroics.

And where has Dustin Hermanson gone? How far off the bullpen depth chart has this guy plummeted and why? Perhaps his back is in worse condition then anyone is letting on. He doesn't even warm up anymore. He may be on a milk carton before he appears in another game.

Houson's woes are complicated further by the Rocket Man's fizzling performance. He is doubtful in my mind to make another appearance in this Series. If he doesn't feel he can go 100%, he'll protect his legacy before he'll go out on his sword. JMO.

White Sox hold serve and really only have to go to Houston and win one of the three down there. If they come back to Chicago up 3-2, they will be tough to beat. They have been tough on the road all year, so it's not inconceivable they could close it out, but it would be more fun to pop the corks in Chi-town.

Big Boo-Nah to ESPN by the way, who opened the Saturday night Sports Center with College footbal highlights, since it was a Saturday night. A mid-season college weekend versus the World Series? Give me a break. These guys seem more idiotic and full of themselves every day. Oops, visual of Sean Salisbury. Very Bad. Whose running that ship over there now anyway, the Skipper and his little buddy? They must be mad at MLB for not having the Series on ESPN, still a very childish display of network temperment. If you're going to trumpet yourselves as a leader in sports, act like one.

Anyway, off to Houston for the Series....Go, go, go , go White Sox.