In Praise of Premortems (not postmortems)

from Harvard Business Review

from Farnam Street:

https://fs.blog/kahneman-better-decisions/ 

Daniel Kahneman’s Favorite Approach For Making Better Decisions

Bob Sutton’s book, Scaling Up Excellence: Getting to More Without Settling for Less, contains an interesting section towards the end on looking back from the future, which talks about “a mind trick that goads and guides people to act on what they know and, in turn, amplifies their odds of success.”

We build on Nobel winner Daniel Kahneman’s favorite approach for making better decisions. This may sound weird, but it’s a form of imaginary time travel.

It’s called the premortem. And, while it may be Kahneman’s favorite, he didn’t come up with it. A fellow by the name of Gary Klein invented the premortem technique.

A premortem works something like this. When you’re on the verge of making a decision, not just any decision but a big decision, you call a meeting. At the meeting, you ask each member of your team to imagine that it’s a year later.

Split them into two groups. Have one group imagine that the effort was an unmitigated disaster. Have the other pretend it was a roaring success. Ask each member to work independently and generate reasons, or better yet, write a story, about why the success or failure occurred. Instruct them to be as detailed as possible, and, as Klein emphasizes, to identify causes that they wouldn’t usually mention “for fear of being impolite.” Next, have each person in the “failure” group read their list or story aloud, and record and collate the reasons. Repeat this process with the “success” group. Finally use the reasons from both groups to strengthen your … plan. If you uncover overwhelming and impassible roadblocks, then go back to the drawing board.

Premortems encourage people to use “prospective hindsight,” or, more accurately, to talk in “future perfect tense.” Instead of thinking, “we will devote the next six months to implementing a new HR software initiative,” for example, we travel to the future and think, “we have devoted six months to implementing a new HR software package.”

You imagine that a concrete success or failure has occurred and look “back from the future” to tell a story about the causes.

[…]

Pretending that a success or failure has already occurred—and looking back and inventing the details of why it happened—seems almost absurdly simple. Yet renowned scholars including Kahneman, Klein, and Karl Weick supply compelling logic and evidence that this approach generates better decisions, predictions, and plans. Their work suggests several reasons why. …

1. This approach helps people overcome blind spots

As … upcoming events become more distant, people develop more grandiose and vague plans and overlook the nitty-gritty daily details required to achieve their long-term goals.

2. This approach helps people bridge short-term and long-term thinking

Weick argues that this shift is effective, in part, because it is far easier to imagine the detailed causes of a single outcome than to imagine multiple outcomes and try to explain why each may have occurred. Beyond that, analyzing a single event as if it has already occurred rather than pretending it might occur makes it seem more concrete and likely to actually happen, which motivates people to devote more attention to explaining it.

3. Looking back dampens excessive optimism

As Kahneman and other researchers show, most people overestimate the chances that good things will happen to them and underestimate the odds that they will face failures, delays, and setbacks. Kahneman adds that “in general, organizations really don’t like pessimists” and that when naysayers raise risks and drawbacks, they are viewed as “almost disloyal.”

Max Bazerman, a Harvard professor, believes that we’re less prone to irrational optimism when we predict the fate of projects that are not our own. For example, when it comes to friends’ home renovation projects, most people estimate the costs will run 25 to 50 percent over budget. When it comes to our projects; however, they will be “completed on time and near the project costs.”

4. A premortem challenges the illusion of consensus

Most times, not everyone on a team agrees with the course of action. Even when you have enough cognitive diversity in the room, people still keep their mouths shut because people in power tend to reward people who agree with them while punishing those who dare to speak up with a dissenting view.

The resulting corrosive conformity is evident when people don’t raise private doubts, known risks, and inconvenient facts. In contrast, as Klein explains, a premortem can create a competition where members feel accountable for raising obstacles that others haven’t. “The whole dynamic changes from trying to avoid anything that might disrupt harmony to trying to surface potential problems.”

Just Thinking....Random Thoughts

ROGER CLEMENS BACK IN THE NEWS:

Talk about hubris, pot meet kettle? A congressman chastising someone about hubris? And lying to the public? Are you kidding me?

Rep. Tom Davis from Virginia regarding the Clemens indictment.

"We didn't wish this on Clemens, I guarantee you. But there are people who think they can bluff their way through, and it's hubris. ... These matters are taken very seriously. We impeached a president [Bill Clinton] for lying in a deposition. Nobody's above the law, including the president and All-Star pitchers."

My only question is -- and continues to be -- where is the punishment when those in Congress lie to the public? Somehow, "see you in November" doesn't seem good enough for some of the crimes these guys have pulled off, but that's for another rant.

As we've seen in the Bonds situation, it's a long way from an indictment to a conviction. Never mind Bonds. How about the Blago trial up here in Illinois? The prosecutor promised multiple convictions and a virtual life sentence behind bars for Blago leading up to the trial and ended up going 1 for 24 in court. That's a .042 batting average if you're scoring at home.

Brian McNamee admittedly was not a very credible witness, but his story was supported somewhat by Pettitte. We'll see if that support holds as strong in a trial phase.

I'm a little concerned when I hear comments like those from a Buster Olney where he said with, no qualms whatsoever, that "once Clemens was named in the Mitchell Report, there was no way for him to clear his name". Case closed. That's not justice. To say nothing of the appearance at least that Palmiero, Sosa and perhaps McGwire either lied or obstructed Congress and walked away virtually unscathed. Not good for confidence in the Justice system, if that was the intent. It gets to the selectivity of prosecution question which erodes confidence.
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TONY DUNGY CALLS REX RYAN OUT ON CUSSING:

And people go stark raving stupid. Especially Jets fan. If you really want to lose faith in your fellow man, read the comments section after some of these stories. I'm going to come down on Tony Dungy's side in most if not all comparisons with Rex Ryan. If Jet fan needs a second Super Bowl ring that bad, so be it. To compare what Coach Dungy is trying to do for Michael Vick versus his criticism of Ryan's behavior as justification for dismissal of Dungy's comments misses the point. It's the same point. Bad behavior. If you justify by matter of degree, I can make a justification for Vick by saying he didn't kill a human being, lay off him.

Rex Ryan is a tool trying to project an image of cool. To the extent that Roger Goodell has decided he wants to clean up the NFL's image and modify behavior of players on and off the field, it doesn't seem like a stretch for the leaders of said players to be held to some standards of behavior as well.
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OMG!! APPARENTLY SHE FOUND A TURKEY BASTER SUITABLE ENOUGH FOR HER HIGH STANDARDS!!

BILL SIMMONS PROVES ONCE AGAIN WHY HE'S THE BEST

In one of his more recent articles Bill Simmons bring it on.

A few theories to chew on

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100820

Not so much the Nolan Ryan - Robin Ventura fight theory, but further down, the Jennifer Anniston riff. I mean first off, a Jennifer Anniston riff in the middle of sports story. BRILLIANT. Because who hasn't wondered the same?

Chewed-On Theory No. 3: "Why can't Jennifer Aniston find a man?"

Point by point, cannot disagree and Simmons starts off in lawyer like fashion making his case.

On the surface, this has nothing to do with sports. Just bear with me. Aniston became an A-list star thanks to "Friends." When the show folded in 2004, unlike everyone else on the cast, she managed to remain an A-List star despite making the following movies.

Point by point, cannot disagree. Then comes the classic blast -- that you can only hope by the grace of God you are not sipping coffee at the time you read it -- because it pounds the point home in a way that only Simmons can.

Aniston's life resonates with that demographic better than anyone. Now she's 41, still hunting for a man, her ovaries rumbling like Earl Campbell, but we're all a little confused because … I mean, how could Jennifer Aniston, of all people, not find a man? How could someone that attractive need a friend to set her up on dates? What the hell is going on here? Is she secretly super-annoying? Is she terrible in bed? Does she have bad breath or bad hygiene? Are her standards simply too high? Does she still pine for Pitt and any potential mate can sense it?

...her ovaries rumbling like Earl Campbell.....WOW!!! I hope dude is not single, looking to mingle after a blast like that, because those kind of comments get around.
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JENNIE FINCH RETIRES FROM SOFTBALL

JENNIE FINCH ABOUT TO THROW ONE PAST A-ROD

It did not get as much play as it probably should have, but Jennie Finch retired from softball. She likely did as much or more for the growth of the sport at the youth and HS levels in recent years as anybody, for a lot of reasons. When she carried the torch for womens softball, the torch was in good hands. She will be missed.

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JAY MARIOTTI, A CAUTIONARY TALE

Now the subject of tabloid journalism sensationalism and he doesn't like it. After years of being on the firing end of the firing squad, he and his ilk, have a problem with the process.

A process they helped to nourish, build and profit from, comes tumbling down on them. What's the proper term? Poetic justice?

http://www.tmz.com/2010/08/21/jay-mariotti-espn-sports-writer-arrested-los-angeles-felony/

Mariotti was arrested on a felony charge at 4:30 AM -- a police source tells us it is a domestic violence charge.

He was held on $50,000 bail and released shortly after noon.

Mariotti is a regular on the ESPN show "Around the Horn" and a writer for the popular sports website Fanhouse.com.

I'm sure this goes past guys like Mariotti, but I'll try anyway.


Matthew 7:1-3

1Do not judge, or you too will be judged.
2For in the same way you judge others, you will be judged,
and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you.
3"Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye
and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?

Like Yogi Berra once noted in comparing baseball to church, "Many attend, few understand".
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Also prominent in the news, two young athletes, both early in the process of writing the story of their athletic lives. LeBron James and Tim Tebow.

YES, INDEED. WE ARE ALL WITNESSES.

But ask yourself exactly what are we all witness to? And where exactly are our eyes fixed?

LeBron James came to Cleveland with all of the following labels.

Chosen One, King James, Savior of the Franchise.

He leaves looking as if he believes the Cleveland franchise/owner treated him with the same lack of respect as that goofy JetBlue flight attendant.

Passengers say flight attendant Steven Slater was rude, and prompted the infamous confrontation with passengers. The Associated Press
WHAT A SURPRISE! HE LOOKS SO NORMAL!

A staggering fall from grace? Maybe not, when you come to the city billed as a Messiah and you leave delivering little more than that which was previously delivered by Craig Ehlo.

He and the Cavalier fans believed that he was chosen by destiny to perform a task that nobody else could perform. Throw in the hometown boy makes good angle and you have the all the ingredients for an epic movie.

The good fans of Cleveland are likely more mad at themselves for falling for the shlocky media (over)-hype that was the LeBron James experience than they are mad at LeBron James himself. So get over yourself LeBron, it's not always about you, dude.

They realize in hindsight that they were not only simply witnesses, but active participants in the (over)-hype, the false idolatry, the somewhat over-the-top hero worship and are slowly coming to their senses. I applaud their newly found wisdom.

By contrast we see how Tim Tebow handled his "exit" or last game with the Florida Gators. He chose the message from Hebrews 12:1-2 that includes the words "since we are surrounded by a great cloud of witnesses" to pay homage to the fans who supported him during his time there.



HEBREWS 12:1-2

Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles, and let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us. Let us fix our eyes on Jesus, the author and perfecter of our faith, who for the joy set before him endured the cross, scorning its shame, and sat down at the right hand of the throne of God.

One of the prevailing themes from this passage is that we are all very much in debt to those who raised us, taught us, nurtured us and helped us get to our current station. The best way to repay that debt is to pass along the same kindness to others, to better the lot of those around us and help those less fortunate than ourselves. It is encouragement to remain steadfast in their mission with eyes focused on the ultimate prize and to persevere through patience, endurance and faith to victory. Tim Tebow gets it.

What LeBron doesn't get is that the greatest sin he committed against the fans of Cleveland -- and the franchise and his former teammates -- is that he did not return the faith that they so clearly placed in him, as the "Chosen One". He basked in all the glory bestowed upon him when times were good. But unfortunately, he chose to abandon ship once the going got a little tough and took his "talents" to Miami. In doing so, he proved himself unworthy of the titles bestowed upon him by the fans and the over indulgent media.

There is no doubt as to where the focus of a Tim Tebow lies. It is clear where his eyes are fixed and the story his life will tell. He has already proven that he is winner and a champion, on and off the field.

LeBron has his eyes fixed on what he deems his birthright, a championship. We are all "witnesses" to where a focus on that kind of self-entitled, self-interested, worldly pursuit has led him so far. I say good luck to you in your pursuit of a shiny ring, LeBron. It should be an interesting and cautionary story that your life will tell.

This is what Nike has "witnessed" so far about Mr. Tebow.

from St. Pete Times article:
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football/bucs/is-tim-tebow-the-greatest-sports-marketing-machine-ever/1115036

Talk about Tebow to people who work in the overlapping industries of sports and entertainment and business and a handful of words and phrases keep coming up. Authentic. Sincere. Moral. Winner. Champion. Leader. Presence. Humility. Clean-cut. All-American.

"It's safe to say he's got unprecedented numbers heading into a rookie season," E-Poll president Gerry Philpott said of Tebow's current Q rating. Q in this case doesn't stand for quarterback. This Q rating measures a celebrity's overall popularity and appeal.

According to the Davie-Brown Index, he outranks Michael Jordan, maybe the most famous athlete in history, in categories like trustworthiness, compassion and sincerity, and it's not even close.

"He's got a unique background among athletes," E-Poll's Randy Parker said. "He's perceived as having high standards and a different sort of ethical stance than many athletes."

Good stuff.

Did Ichiro sound the death knell to "Chicks dig the long ball"?

Ichiro's quote in a New York Times article, back in September:

"Chicks who dig the long ball aren't the ones who appeal to me. I think there's sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I'd rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Every now and then, just to show that I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out."

WOW, who knew? I wish I knew back when I played that chicks dig the infield hit and maybe the occasional drag bunt for a hit. I would have been a SCORING MACHINE!!!

JUST THINKING

I'm watching the LLWS Western Regional and one of the announcers (Eduardo Perez) gives the pitcher credit for throwing a 96 MPH fastball. Of course, he is (ab)using the oft-featured conversion of the actual MPH the 12 year old is actually chucking his fastball (in this case, about 72 MPH) and extrapolating using the LL pitching distance compared to the major-league distance (46 feet vs. 60 feet 6 inches).

So we get 72 MPH x (60.6 / 46) = ~ 96 MPH

Great, I get that. We're actually comparing the reaction time, but I'm OK with the comparison.

But isn't about time we give equal love to the hitter?

I mean, the next time one of these little shavers check swings and launches one about 50 lawn chairs into the bleachers, with the shittiest looking swing from a mechanics perspective, but the best technology that Easton can provide, why can't we also provide a LL to MLB comparison for the hitter?

My proposal:

A kid launches one about 300-350 actual feet into the bleachers for a HR, while he's rounding the bases, we display the conversion based on the following measures:

The bases are 60 feet LL distance vs. 90 feet MLB, a 2/3 conversion MLB to LL.
The outfield distances down the line are 200-210 LL feet vs. about 315 feet average MLB distance again a 2/3 conversion. Even the mount distance is approx. 2/3 but that's pitching distance, so we're comparing apples to oranges, but again close to 2/3.

Invert to get the LL to MLB conversion and you have your LL->MLB equivalent, or 3/2.

So again using our example above, kid hits one 300 feet over the fence, well
HEY FOLKS, THAT'S THE MAJOR LEAGUE EQUIVALENT OF A 450 FOOT BOMB.

Little Johnny cranks one 350 feet and it's
OH MY GOODNESS, I'VE GOT SCOTT BORAS ON LINE 2, CAUSE THAT'S A 525 FOOT MAJOR LEAGUE BOMB. DON'T FORGET THE THE POST GAME PEE-TEST.

I'm just saying we have the technology, if ESPN wants to inject it's cameras in and provide instant replay on HR calls, let them bring the HR measuring equipment and give the hitters some loving.

And one more thing, while I'm thinking about it. Bring the K-Zone technology, so we can see exactly how far outside the strike zone some of these strike calls are in fact. You couldn't reach some of these "strikes" with a telephone pole.

Oh and one more thing, is it me or is this pitch count rule having the unintended consequence of having coaches "milk the count" and jack the pitch count up to get the stud pitcher out early, hopefully by the fourth inning? So then you have two rips against the bullpen which will include the third or fourth best pitcher since you're saving #2 for the next start? I have no actual data to support this, just the observational data so far. But it does seem like that is why we are seeing so many "late" rallies. And they are not just normal rallies, they are explosions of runs. At what point, does this hurt the entertainment value of the product to the WWLIS, and cause a "massaging of the rule"? In the best interest of the children, of course.

JUST THINKING, OUT LOUD AS USUAL.

By the way, good luck to Citrus Park Little League, the Southeast Regional Representative from my former backyard. The park was a mere stones throw from our previous Tampa address. They give me another reason to stay tuned.

GO CP!!!