Giants 2017 Starters

This is it, save for a couple of forgettable Chris Stratton starts. If the Giants knew how bad the season was going to be, do you think they would have DFA'd Clayton Blackburn? I sure would have liked to have seen him in extended meaningful action, I think he'd have developed into a keeper like Ty Blach seems to be doing. 

Believe it or not, the core problem is not here. Samardzija has to keep the ball in the yard and get finer with the strike zone. He's discovering the difference between control (throwing strikes) and command (throwing strikes with stuff and proper location). It just can't be anywhere in the strike zone. We tell twelve and thirteen year-olds with "stuff" to just throw it down the middle and dare them to hit it. That doesn't work in the show. The other guys is getting paid big bucks too.  

Nothing stops Bumgarner, except dirt-bikes and lack of run support. Not worried about him. PAY THE MAN!!

Blach pitches to contact and keeps the ball in the yard and on the ground. So he may get hit but he can get a DP limit damage. Talk to Samardzija.

Cueto has to get it back. He got exposed a little after Bumgarner went down. I don't think he's a pure #1 anymore. He needs some cover. Keep Bummer away from dirt bikes.

Matt Moore is truly vexing. I think a lot of it is between his ears. When he threw the WP and forgot to cover home recently, I though Posey should have drilled him with it. It might have knocked some sense back into him. He seems to forget how to compete when things go wrong. When the wheels come off for him, they don't go back on easily, like for Blach and Bummer. He supposedly has 3-4 pitches, none of which he can really command. Which means he really doesn't have any pitches.

Matt Cain. Hey, thanks for the memories. Here's your $7M buyout for next year. The old-timers game is in June, you think you can give us a couple of innings? Maybe get some guys out there? What do they say, if you have two Matt's in your rotation, you really don't have any? TRUTH!!

Moore has to figure it out quickly or, as long as we're into bringing back the old guard, let's just offer him back to the Rays for Matt Duffy, if he ever gets off the DL. He plays left, Parker goes to RF and Pence, IDK about Pence. He makes a lot of money so.......yeah. That's why we can never have a nice team around here.

To the Unheralded Ones - NL Rookie of the Year No Longer a Two-Horse Race | FanGraphs

Both the catch by Juan Perez, making a spot start in CF just up from AAA, and the FanGraphs article below, speculating on the chances of Matt Duffy and perhaps Chris Heston in the Rookie of the Year chase, demonstrate why the Giants have won three rings in the last five years. They get big-time contributions from a seemingly endless parade of  what were heretofore nondescript, unheralded players.

A bunch of "Meh" Guys. The Unheralded Ones.

from fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nl-rookie-of-the-year-no-longer-a-two-horse-race/

Heading into the season, Kris Bryant enjoyed favored status when it came to predicting a National League Rookie of the Year. When FanGraphs writers were polled before the season, 20 of 36 votes went to the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman; seven went Joc Pederson; six were cast for Jorge Soler; Noah Syndergaard,Jung Ho Kang and Raisel Iglesias each got one. A couple months into the season, Pederson inserted himself into the race with 13 home runs by the end of May. As the year has moved on, Bryant and Pederson have come back to the pack a bit while Matt Duffy, Kang and Syndergaard have moved into the conversation for the NL’s top rookie. The award is no longer a two-horse battle, and all the players who have risen up are sure to see plenty of exposure since each of them is in the middle of a pennant race.

 

The chart below shows each rookie’s current WAR and the rest of the season projection from the FanGraphs Depth Charts. The third column adds the first two, showing the expected WAR at the end of the season.

	WAR	ROS WAR	UPDATED WAR
Kris Bryant	3.4	1.6	5.0
Matt Duffy	3.1	0.8	3.9
Joc Pederson	2.7	1.1	3.8
Noah Syndergaard	2.5	1.2	3.7
Jung-Ho Kang	2.7	0.8	3.5
Randal Grichuk	2.7	0.6	3.3
Chris Heston	2.3	0.9	3.2
Maikel Franco	1.3	0.7	2.0

Sent from my iPhone

• Matt Duffy didn't appear on too many Top 10 prospects list, certainly not mine, but was a cult favorite among Giants watchers.
• Joe Panik was met with mostly yawns and generally panned as a first rounder. 
• Chris Heston was not a Top Ten Prospect, yet makes a solid contribution as a starter.
• Add in the bench mob, guys like Juan Perez and Gregor Blanco, who would be a starter and a solid contributor on quite a few teams.  

So yeah, it would be nice to dream of Matt Duffy winning the ROY award this year. But let's face it, Kris Bryant was the pre-season Heralded One by the prognosticators ( see FanGraphs reference) and they have a vested interest in confirming their predictions ( see, I was right!! Yippee!! ). Matt Duffy was heralded by NOBODY. Therefore, just like in boxing. Duffy is the challenger and has to either knock-out or decisively win by decision or acclamation. If both guys are standing at the end of the year and it's close statistically, the decision will go to Bryant. Having said that, (or really having written that) I do give Duffy a punchers chance to win because he is such a fighter and has overcome long odds his entire professional career just to get to this spot.

So, MATT DUFFY for ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!! Or just break the odd year even year thingy. Whatever. A little more help from some of the more heralded ones not named Bumgarner or Posey or Crawford would be of great help in that regard.

Player Card: Joe Panik

I like the analysis and the approach to disseminating the data. But seriously, Buster Posey "a poor eye" on fastballs? I don't think so. More likely, as a power hitter and the guy most likely to damage against the fastball, he doesn't see many, if any in the strike zone, therefore occasionally has to "chase" outside for the one fastball per AB he can handle, even though it may be a little bit out of the SZ. Maybe we should ask Joey Votto for his thoughts on the matter.

But I can't disagree with too much else and very neatly pass the eyeball test in all other respects, especially regarding these three hitters. I'm not sure if you could parse the data differently for contact hitters versus power hitter anyway. The conclusions might be slightly different if you did and clearly the hitting approach of a Buster Posey is going to be fundamentally different than a Joe Panik to say nothing of the way pitchers attempt to approach them.


from brooksbaseball.net
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/

Joe Panik

San Francisco Giants

Hitter-At-A-Glance 

Joe Panik has seen 2,903 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2015, including pitches seen in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training.

In 2015:
Against All Fastballs (930 seen), he has had a league average eye (0.93 d'; 64% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 28% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.11 c) with a low likelihood to swing and miss (8% whiff/swing).

Against Breaking Pitches (276 seen), he has had a league average eye (0.66 d'; 59% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 33% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.10 c) with an exceptionally low likelihood to swing and miss (17% whiff/swing).

Against Offspeed Pitches (203 seen), he has had a very poor eye (0.62 d'; 67% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 42% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (-0.12 c) with a low likelihood to swing and miss (22% whiff/swing). 

Buster Posey

San Francisco Giants

Hitter-At-A-Glance 

Buster Posey has seen 12,175 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2015, including pitches seen in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training.

In 2015:
Against All Fastballs (767 seen), he has had a poor eye (0.82 d'; 68% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 36% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and an aggressive approach at the plate (-0.04 c) with a low likelihood to swing and miss (9% whiff/swing).

Against Breaking Pitches (363 seen), he has had a very good eye (0.95 d'; 66% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 30% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.05 c) with a low likelihood to swing and miss (20% whiff/swing).

Against Offspeed Pitches (121 seen), he has had a good eye (1.12 d'; 81% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 41% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (-0.33 c) with a below average likelihood to swing and miss (27% whiff/swing). 

Matt Duffy

San Francisco Giants

Hitter-At-A-Glance 

Matt Duffy has seen 1,330 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2014 and 2015, including pitches seen in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason.

In 2015:
Against All Fastballs (716 seen), he has had an exceptionally poor eye (0.66 d'; 63% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 37% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.00 c) with a below average likelihood to swing and miss (12% whiff/swing).

Against Breaking Pitches (288 seen), he has had a poor eye (0.49 d'; 54% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 35% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (0.14 c) with an above average likelihood to swing and miss (38% whiff/swing).

Against Offspeed Pitches (96 seen), he has had a poor eye (0.75 d'; 80% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 54% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a very aggressive approach at the plate (-0.46 c) with a below average likelihood to swing and miss (24% whiff/swing). 

'via Blog this'

Is Matt Duffy arguably the best rookie in the National League?

I would say so, but I'm biased. So I'm a gonna let mlbtraderumors.com beat the drums for him and stand back in a supporting role. Can you imagine the reaction in Chicago and other points around the country after all the Kris Bryant All-Star/HR Derby love? I not only can imagine it , I would welcome it. But I'm kind of mean like that.

MATT DUFFY FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!

from mlbtraderumors.com
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/nl-west-notes-diamondbacks-gray-padres-giants.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

• The Giants have built one of the best infields in the sport, notes Jonah Keri of Grantland. The home grown crew includes several surprising contributors. Brandon Belt was a well-regarded prospect – especially among sabermetric circles. However, Brandon Crawford's offensive emergence was unexpected. Joe Panik is deceptively well-rounded. Matt Duffy was supposed to back up Casey McGehee. Instead, he's arguably the best rookie in the National League, a class that includes Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco among others.

Sent from my iPhone

The four lessons of Matt Duffy (or You too can Be a Data Hero)

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!!!! We have a winner.

The First Lesson of Matt Duffy, The Joe Panik Rule....hmmmm both good titles,  but here at The Slav's Baseball Blog, we lovingly refer to it as The K/BB ratio for pitchers. The opposite ratio for hitters would be The BB/K ratio. Both correlate pretty highly for predicting future success and both are, generally speaking, the first screen I look at to filter prospect lists of any kind (there are others).

These metrics are not as widely available for HS players, but for most collegians and certainly for professional players, there is a plethora of data sources where you can find and filter to your hearts content. And isn't that what data analysis is all about?

from McCovey Chronicles:
The four lessons of Matt Duffy, who doesn't make sense - McCovey Chronicles:

The first lesson of Matt Duffy

Pay attention to the minor leaguers who strike out about as much as they walk. Before you look at any other statistic (other than maybe home runs, of course), check the walks. Check the strikeouts. If they're about even (and neither of them are absurdly deflated or inflated), pay attention to that player. You could also call this the Joe Panik Rule, and it applies to any prospect, regardless if they're doing other impressive things.

In 2013, this skinny afterthought was hitting .303/.389/.443 across two levels, including a cool 45 walks to 41 strikeouts in Low-A. This isn't to suggest that he should have been a top prospect then -- it was a performance that just barely got him onto a consensus top-30 list -- but the lesson isn't that every kid will be a star if he can work a count at the same time he's making contact. The lesson is to pay attention to those types.

'via Blog this'

P.S. - Case in point. Daniel Carbonnell was just sent back to repeat Hi-A after a wretched stint at AA. Now, he hit over .300 in Hi-A last year in a short stint and started there this year at over .300. The Giants promoted him to AA and the wheels literally came off, a .146 AVG in 214 AB's with a 53:4 K/BB ratio. That would be fantastic for a pitcher, but turn that smile upside down and for a hitter, it's 4:53 or a wretched 7.5% when we're looking for closer to 1:1 or 100%.

See why he got sent back? Hard to generate the other things that scouts and fans salivate over, the Hits, Extra-Base Hits, and Home Runs, from the contact AB's, when you're spending too much time on the wrong side of the non-contact AB side of the equation and on the wrong side of THAT equation to boot, On the non-contact side, you can K or BB, one is good, the other bad. Not rocket science here and for the most part, very binary.

Joe Panik - Baseball Reference.com

Looking for statistical evidence that would point to the dreaded "sophomore slump" for Joe Panik, because that's just what you're supposed to do these days.Nobody can just simply pass the eyeball test.

Good news, I didn't find any. I suspect the same will hold true for Matt Duffy and Andrew Susac, but for now both of those guys merely pass the eyeball test.

Panik is at the 500 AB mark combined over two half season, so we should know what we have here.
Welcome to the club, Joe!!


from Baseball-Reference.com

Joe Panik Batting Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

				Joe Panik Batting Statistics and History | Baseball-Refe... Standard Batting Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2011 20 SFG-min A-,Fal 96...
				View on www.baseball-referenc...	Preview by Yahoo

Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 1st round (29th pick) of the 2011 amateur draft.
Signed June 11, 2011. (All Transactions)
Debut: June 21, 2014 (Age 23.234, 18,273rd in MLB history) 
Rookie Status: Exceeded rookie limits during 2014 season [*] 
Team: Giants 2014-2015
2015 Contract Status: Signed thru 2015, 1 yr/$523k (15) (details) [*]
Service Time (01/2015): 0.100, Arb Eligible: 2018, Free Agent: 2021 [*], 

 from Baseball-Reference.com

http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpanikjo01-bat.shtml&t=all_standard_batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2014	23	SFG	NL	73	287	269	31	82	10	2	1	18	0	0	16	33	.305	.343	.368	.711	106	99	4	0	1	1	0	4	RoY-6
2015	24	SFG	NL	74	319	281	39	87	20	2	6	30	3	2	30	37	.310	.379	.459	.838	138	129	5	3	2	3	0	*4
2 Yrs				147	606	550	70	169	30	4	7	48	3	2	46	70	.307	.362	.415	.776	123	228	9	3	3	4	0
162 Game Avg.				162	668	606	77	186	33	4	8	53	3	2	51	77	.307	.362	.415	.776	123	251	10	3	3	4	0

Joe Panik - m.bbref.com

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	RAA	WAA	Rrep	RAR	WAR	waaWL%	162WL%	oWAR	dWAR	oRAR	Salary	Pos	Awards
2014	23	SFG	NL	73	287	1	1	1	-2	2	3	0.2	9	12	1.1	.504	.502	1.4	-0.1	14		4	RoY-6
2015	24	SFG	NL	74	319	14	-2	1	2	2	16	1.7	10	26	2.7	.524	.511	2.5	0.4	24		*4
2 Seasons				147	606	15	-1	2	0	4	19	1.9	19	38	3.8	.514	.506	3.9	0.3	39

 http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpanikjo01-bat.shtml&t=all_advanced_batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	Outs	RC	RC/G	AIR	BAbip	BA	lgBA	OBP	lgOBP	SLG	lgSLG	OPS	lgOPS	OPS+	OWn%	BtRuns	BtWins	TotA	SecA	ISO	PwrSpd
2014	23	SFG	NL	287	193	34	4.7	89	.343	.305	.248	.343	.311	.368	.383	.711	.694	106	.553	2.1	0.2	.602	.123	.063	.0
2015	24	SFG	NL	319	206	50	6.5	91	.336	.310	.252	.379	.313	.459	.392	.838	.704	138	.678	16.1	1.6	.811	.260	.149	4.0
2 Yrs				606	399	84	5.6	90	.340	.307	.250	.362	.312	.415	.387	.776	.699	123	.624	18.2	1.8	.709	.193	.107	4.2
162 Game Avg.				668	440	93	5.6	90	.340	.307	.250	.362	.312	.415	.387	.776	.699	123	.624	20	2	.709	.193	.107	5

Joe Panik - m.bbref.com

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	BtRuns	BtWins	Plays	WPA	WPA+	WPA-	aLI	WPA/LI	Clutch	RE24	REW	boLI	RE24/boLI	PHlev	AB
2014	23	SFG	NL	1.4	0.1	291	0.1	4.5	-4.5	.95	-0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.98	-0.5	1.13	6
2015	24	SFG	NL	16.1	1.6	326	1.4	6.4	-5.0	1.02	1.0	0.3	8.6	0.9	0.98	9.6	3.22	2
2 Yrs				17.4	1.8	617	1.5	10.9	-9.5	.99	0.8	0.6	8.6	0.9	0.98	9.1	1.65	8

Joe Panik - m.bbref.com

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	HR%	SO%	BB%	XBH%	X/H%	SO/W	AB/SO	AB/HR	AB/RBI	GB/FB	GO/AO	IP%	LD%	HR/FB	IF/FB
2014	23	SFG	NL	287	0.4%	11.5%	5.6%	4.5%	16%	2.06	8.2	269.0	14.9	1.08	1.24	82%	26%	1.1%	17%
2015	24	SFG	NL	319	1.9%	11.6%	9.4%	8.8%	32%	1.23	7.6	46.8	9.4	0.76	0.94	76%	28%	4.8%	10%
2 Yrs				606	1.2%	11.6%	7.6%	6.8%	24%	1.52	7.9	78.6	11.5	0.90	1.08	79%	27%	3.2%	13%
MLB Averages					2.4%	20.3%	7.6%	7.2%	32%	2.67	4.4	38.3	8.8	0.85	1.11	68%	25%	7.1%	13%

• Available Stats Tables

Sent from my iPhone

Sent from my iPhone