Kershaw dominates, Giants stay close (seriously?)

I watched the entire excruciating three-game series because that's just how I roll. If indeed the Giants did lose all three games by only one run each in reality, the games were never that close from my vantage point. The games were never as close as the scoreboard indicated.



At no point during last nights debacle did I ever expect the Giants were going to score enough runs to win that game, Kershaw was that much in control,

from Yahoo Sports:
Clayton Kershaw's 132-pitch masterpiece closes out Dodgers' sweep of Giants - Yahoo Sports:

Don Mattingly had dodged questions all week about these Los Angeles Dodgers against those San Francisco Giants, about the long (and possibly naïve) view of burying the Giants and winning a division a full month before the season would end, and then Wednesday night happened. He went to the mound in the ninth inning to see Clayton Kershaw, to see if 127 pitches in a one-run game weren't quite enough for his ace, what with two Giants on the bases and one out still undone. "How am I doing. I'm good. That was about it," Kershaw recalled of a meeting he had little use for.

'via Blog this'

I must truly love torture to have sat through all of that. I must be the Dick Cheney of baseball fan-dom to have sat through all of that.  The Giants only chance was when Mattingly came out and decided to exercise his managerial discretion. It looked like the entire infield would have wrestled him into submission if he extended his hand and tried to take the ball from Kershaw. Once they talked some sense into him, it was GAME OVER!!

If people want to hang their hat on the fact that the last four games are against these same Dodgers in AT&T Park and therefore the Giants only need to stay within four games of the Dodgers to have some hope, well they can hang it up. Ain't going to happen. That just means that the Giants could theoretically finish eight games behind the Dodgers this season.

Maybe there is something to this even year thing. Sheesh!! Free Clayton Blackburn!!!

Who is the World's Best Pitcher?

It would be hard to argue against any of the Top Five as tops in the game, perhaps going down as far as Top Ten, After that it gets a little dicey and spicy. I imagine Matt Cain would have fallen onto this list had he pitched enough recently and maybe Lincecum had he not fallen off a cliff recently.

But "Oh well?  Right?  What are you going to do?  ~;::::::;( )">  ¯\_( )_/¯

Hey, I hear the Reds might be having a garage sale. See how much they're asking for Mike Leake. Hey, and maybe they throw in that Cuban Missile guy Chapman, right? It's not like they're using him much anyway, right? What have you got to lose?  ~;::::::;( )">  ¯\_( )_/¯

from billjamesonline.com

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/



Is Max Scherzer the World’s Best Pitcher?
June 29, 2015

In the 2015 Bill James Handbook, Bill James introduced his new formula to determine the World’s Best Pitcher at any given time. The system is based on Game Scores and weighs positive and negative recent performances more heavily than older performances.

As of the publication of the Handbook, Clayton Kershaw was the No. 1 pitcher in baseball by a substantial margin, and even in the Stat of the Week update from November that reflected Madison Bumgarner’s dominant playoff performance, Kershaw was still well clear of the field.
So far in 2015, Kershaw has been a little less dominant than his usual self. That combined with some excellent pitching performances from some of his peers, one in particular, has radically closed the gap:

World's #1 Starting Pitcher as of 6/29/2015
Rank	Started Season	Pitcher	Current Score
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	585.9
2	4	Max Scherzer	584.6
3	6	Chris Sale	557.7
4	2	Madison Bumgarner	553.8
5	10	Zack Greinke	553.1

Specifically, Max Scherzer has flown up the rankings this year thanks to his 1.79 ERA and his league-leading 9.3 strikeouts per walk. Following his no-hitter, Scherzer has pulled close to even with Kershaw.

Kershaw is still No. 1, but that title is at jeopardy for the first time since June 1, 2014, when Scherzer briefly held the title. Kershaw has been so dominant for so long, that the last starter other than Scherzer to have the title over him is Justin Verlander back in early 2013!

A change could happen as soon as Thursday when Scherzer and the Nationals take on the Braves.
The rankings are updated daily over at Bill James Online."

'via Blog this'


Here's the Top 50 (all aces), Mike Leake makes the list (hint,hint):

World's #1 Starting Pitcher Rankings: CURRENT RANKINGS
Rank	Started Season	Name	Current Score
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	585.9
2	4	Max Scherzer	584.6
3	6	Chris Sale	557.7
4	2	Madison Bumgarner	553.8
5	10	Zack Greinke	553.1
6	3	Felix Hernandez	547.4
7	5	David Price	544.1
8	9	Johnny Cueto	531.1
9	8	Cole Hamels	529.5
10	13	Corey Kluber	520.3
11	7	Jon Lester	504.8
12	45	Chris Archer	501.0
13	55	Dallas Keuchel	500.9
14	29	Francisco Liriano	499.8
15	42	Sonny Gray	499.2
16	12	Jordan Zimmermann	498.4
17	11	Adam Wainwright	493.3
18	20	Lance Lynn	489.2
19	17	James Shields	488.9
20	38	Yovani Gallardo	482.7
21	18	Jeff Samardzija	481.7
22	58	Shelby Miller	480.4
23	62	Jason Hammel	477.0
24	16	R.A. Dickey	476.9
25	63	Jake Arrieta	476.3
26	26	Phil Hughes	474.9
27	53	A.J. Burnett	474.9
28	94	Jacob Degrom	473.4
29	27	Jose Quintana	470.7
30	15	Jered Weaver	470.6
31	47	Dan Haren	468.6
32	52	Wei-Yin Chen	468.0
33	34	John Lackey	467.5
34	14	Stephen Strasburg	466.9
35	43	Anibal Sanchez	465.8
36	22	Gio Gonzalez	465.3
37	48	Tyson Ross	465.0
38	82	Gerrit Cole	464.7
39	49	Edinson Volquez	464.2
40	40	Mark Buehrle	463.6
41	70	Ubaldo Jimenez	459.4
42	41	Miguel Gonzalez	459.2
43	57	C.J. Wilson	458.0
44	19	Doug Fister	455.8
45	71	Clay Buchholz	453.7
46	46	Mike Leake	453.1
47	24	Chris Tillman	451.3
48	88	Scott Kazmir	450.7
49	31	Julio Teheran	447.8
50	50	Wade Miley	447.5

MadBum HR's off Kershaw, Giants sweep/shutout Dodgers AGAIN!!

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v125753583

Old-schoolers would just say that Bumgarner "ambushed" a Kershaw "get-ahead" fastball and call it a day. I like the video game aspect that Statcast™ provides but it is hardly providing new information. It does repackage it and present it in a modern, eye-catching format.

From the article below, apparently a lot of hitters are doing the same to Kershaw, knowing that if they get down 0-2, 1-2 their chances of success are greatly diminished. Another No Duh!! moment.

I like the Statcast presentation, but I would, I'm a baseball geek. I just wonder how much they really believe the casual fan, who doesn't even know what many of these metrics mean, is going to be WOW!!-ed by them long-term.

from mlb.com
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/125882604/how-san-franciscos-madison-bumgarner-homered-off-la-lefty-clayton-kershaw

1. That fastball wasn't a regular Kershaw fastballA typical Kershaw fastball comes out of his hand at 93.836 mph, but because he's releasing the ball at an average extension of 6.547 feet in front of the rubber, the "perceived velocity" -- or what it looks like to the batter -- is actually 94.178 mph. Though he's not necessarily an elite flamethrower, that improvement is still quite good; among pitchers who have thrown the four-seamer at least 40 times, his velocity ranks 110th, but his perceived velocity is 87th.On that pitch, however, the output just wasn't what you'd expect. This one came out of his hand at only 91.614 mph, and because he didn't get as much extension as he usually does -- only 6.075 feet -- the perceived velocity was only 90.909 mph. A usual Kershaw fastball seems faster to the batter; this one actually looked slower. Toss in the fact that his usual fastball spin rate is 2230.421 rpm, and this one was at just 2135.124, and it's clear to see that this wasn't a typical Kershaw offering.Now, that might not have been an issue, except …2. The placement couldn't have been worseIf we watch the video, we can see where Kershaw put this pitch, and, well, this is why they say a picture says a thousand words.  A standard-issue Kershaw heater can get away with being down the middle. A flat Kershaw fastball down and away might not be remembered. But a sub-par fastball right down the middle of the plate, well, even he can't get away with that.Worse, the pitch came at the exact moment when hitters know they ought to be attacking him …3. It came on the first pitchOver the last few years, hitters have learned that getting down two strikes against Kershaw, when he can bury them with that slider or curveball, is a recipe for disaster. In 2010, hitters offered at just 6.489% of Kershaw's first pitches, only the 98th-highest rate in baseball. Last year? 11.131%, the highest rate in baseball. To restate that: No pitcher in baseball in 2014 saw as many swings on 0-0 counts as Kershaw. And why not? 85% of his first pitches last year were fastballs. At least you've got a prayer against that, as opposed to that 1-2 slider.Though first-pitch swings haven't increased against him this year (down slightly to 10.276%), the productivity has continued, with a .400/.400/.743 first-pitch line headed into Thursday's game. When Kershaw is ahead in the count, that falls to .203/.214/.333. When he has two strikes, it's .144/.226/.250, which is a numerical version of saying "don't even bother."The rumors of Kershaw's demise, it must be said, are sorely exaggerated: His 2.88 FIP -- a metric on the ERA scale that focuses on events the pitcher has complete control over and strips away things like defense and "luck" -- is far more representative of his performance than his 4.32 ERA. Even so, the best pitcher on earth can't get away with a first-pitch meatball right down the middle, even when the other pitcher is batting.Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) is an analyst for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Giants stay the course, re-sign Jake Peavy to two-year deal - Yahoo Sports

(Getty Images)

Another good move for the Giants. A good move, maybe not a great, splashy move like the Lester signing would have been. But the Giants don't specialize in splashy anymore. And maybe that's a good thing. Let the Dodgers specialize in splash, flash and spending wads of cash. The Giants can keep specializing in winning.

from Yahoo Sports:
Giants stay the course, re-sign Jake Peavy to two-year deal | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports:

The latest late night/early morning deal is brought to us by Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal, who reports the San Francisco Giants and GM Brian Sabean have reached an agreement to bring back veteran right-hander Jake Peavy on a two-year deal. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick later confirmed the overnight agreement and the financials, which come in at $24 million guaranteed.

'via Blog this'

This buys the Giants some time to rebuild the starting rotation. Tim Hudson leaves after 2015 and perhaps Lincecum as well. Peavy will be gone after 2016.

In the prospect pipeline, for starting pitchers you might expect the following reinforcements to arrive:

2015
Ty Blach
Chris Stratton

2016
Kendry Flores

2017
Kyle Crick
Clayton Blackburn
Adalberto Mejia
Keurry Mella
Tyler Beede

If any of them arrive ahead of schedule, either due to injury or a sudden bump in development, so much the better. And there is some hope for that, especially with Kyle Crick.

I was listening to MLB radio on Sirius and one of the commentators made a similar comparison to my Madison Bumgarner - Tim Alderson career path divergence and the ramifications with the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billinglsey. Not as elegant as the Giants example in that they started their careers at different times, but what I noticed in the comps is that Kershaw struggled mightily with his control at the AA level in 2007 at Jacksonville,  posting a 6.12 BB/9 versus a 10.44 K/9. The next year in 2008 Kershaw repeated AA Jacksonville and posted 8.70 K/9 versus 2.80 BB/9 and the rest, as they say, is history.

Kershaw's K/BB rate went from 1.71 when he was a 10+ K/9 to 3.11 when his K's went down to 8.66 per 9IP. Kershaw's K level held at the level when he reached the bigs, although his BB level wen up to 4.35 and 4.79 his first two years. Since then his BB/9 in  the bigs has decreased almost every year dropping from 3.57/2.08/2.49/1.98/1.41 from 2010 to 2014. Strangely enough, Kershaw's K/9 is now back over 10+ in 2014 @ 10.85, while his BB/9 is an absurd 1.41!!

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=clayton-kershaw

Crick was 11.1 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 which is about his minor league career line in those two metrics. He needs the light to go on in a similar way that it appeared to for Kershaw. Kershaw sacrificed the gaudy 10+ K/9 to lower his BB/9 rate to an acceptable level, which  increased his overall pitching efficiency.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=kyle-crick

If Crick can take a similar career U-turn, the Giants could see the Matt Cain 2.0 comparisons for Crick come true. That would bolster the Giants starting rotation for years to come.

Shouldn't Angel Pagan be the NL MVP, not Clayton Kershaw?

It is time for those Pagan-deniers (and there are still some) to admit the truth. Angel Pagan has an over-sized effect on the performance of the Giants offense. An almost immediate, demonstrable, statistically verifiable effect.

In small samples and large samples. Period. End of story.

from sfgiants.com:
Pagan, Morse likely out vs. Dodgers | sfgiants.com:

It has been the tale of two very distinct seasons for the Giants -- with and without Pagan in the lineup -- and that pattern held fast as San Francisco's hopes of winning the National League West continued to fade with a 6-2 loss.

The Giants are 56-34 (.672) with Pagan in the lineup and 26-34 (.433) without him. And so, here we are with 12 games left to play.

"He makes a big difference, the numbers show that," Bochy said. "If you look at the evidence, we miss him when he's not in the lineup. We're a different club. He's our leadoff hitter. He's our catalyst. He's the guy who kind of makes things go. When he's not in there, we've had a tough time, tougher than you would think, actually. But for some reason, the numbers are a lot different when he's not in our lineup."

'via Blog this'

Here's a sample from the last ten days or so, culminating in that ghastly offensive display versus the Padres. Almost as soon as Pagan leaves, the Giants offense seizes up like an engine without oil. It may run OK for a little while, but eventually the engine comes to a stop.

from Yahoo Sports:
 http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7717/

Last 10 Games														Season To Date
Date	Opp.	Score	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sep 19	@SD	L 0-5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	.300	.342	.389	.731
Sep 15	@ARI	L 2-6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.302	.342	.391	.733
Sep 14	LAD	L 2-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.302	.342	.391	.733
Sep 13	LAD	L 0-17	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.305	.346	.395	.741
Sep 12	LAD	W 9-0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	.304	.345	.392	.737
Sep 11	ARI	W 6-2	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.307	.347	.396	.743
Sep 10	ARI	W 5-0	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	.305	.344	.392	.736
Sep 9	ARI	W 5-1	5	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.305	.344	.393	.737
Sep 7	@DET	L 1-6	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.298	.339	.387	.726
Sep 6	@DET	W 5-4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.299	.340	.390	.730

We saw last week how dominant Clayton Kershaw is and the effect he has on the team's overall winning percentage. But does that automatically make him the presumptive NL MVP candidate? And if he is that strong a candidate (and he is) due to W-L effect, then shouldn't Angel Pagan get some consideration as well?

Kershaw has to overcome the BBWAA bias against giving a pitcher both the Cy Young Award and the Most Valuable Player Award. That task alone presents a considerable hurdle. We see annually how the baseball writers cling to their biases like an anti-Obama voter.

Having accomplished that, the two main criteria it seems that most voters use to determine the winner is either some monstrously dominant, almost off the charts statistical year or a players perceived impact on a team's Won-Loss record ( the Kirk Gibson effect ). It's here where I think Pagan gets a foot in the door, the Kirk Gibson effect.

We did the math last week and noted that Kershaw was 19-3, now 20-3 with 3 no decisions and the Dodgers are now 89-67 overall. Since I was too lazy to find out what the Dodgers record in the 3 no-decision were, I give Kershaw two out of three. If he was knocked out my initial thought was maybe 1-2 or 0-3 but what the heck, if they were 3-0 then my bad.

That leaves the Dodgers 22-4 in Kershaw's 26 starts, a gaudy 0.846 winning percent.

They are 89-67 overall with a 0.5705 winning percentage, leaving them 67-63 minus Kershaw, a 0.515 winning percentage.

0.846 with Kershaw ( 22- 4 record )
0.515 without Kershaw ( 67 - 63 record )
---------
0.331 Kershaw effect in 26 games out of 156 games total

Here's where the sportswriter bias maybe comes in, let's do the math:

( 0.331 Kershaw effect ) times ( 26 games Kershaw applies the effect / 156 games total )
= 0.055 overall Kersahw effect on Dodgers winning percentage.

Apply same to Pagan / Giants:

0.672 with Pagan ( 56 - 34 record )
0.433 without Pagan ( 26 - 34 record )
--------
0.239 Pagan effect in 90 games out of 150 games total

( 0.239 Pagan effect ) times ( 90 games Pagan applies the effect / 150 games total
= 0.143 overall Pagan effect on Giants winning percentage.

Note: I didn't realize Giants were this bad with A.P., I would have guessed about .500 same as Dodgers minus Kershaw.

So, Pagan's effect would appear to be almost three times greater than that of Kershaw.

But I may be biased.

Clearly, on the games he pitches, Kershaw has a greater effect on winning, but that effect is only applied 26-28 times this season. Pagan, even though he has only played 100 and has a lesser per game effect, obviously is able to exert his presence more often.

I'm not sure I see the writer giving the MVP to a guy who played less than 100 games, in fairness Kirk Gibson played 150 games in his 1988 MVP season. He also had the benefit of Orel Hershiser as a teammate dominating in a similar fashion to Kershaw today.

I feel better making the case for Pagan rather than Pence ( shown below) especially the way that Hunter has been swinging the bat lately. (sorry Hunter)

The Stealth MVP Candidacy of Hunter Pence | FanGraphs Baseball

				The Stealth MVP Candidacy of Hunter Pence | FanGraphs ... Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.
				View on www.fangraphs.com	Preview by Yahoo

His swing works most of the time.  With Pagan in the lead, it seems like the Giants at least occasionally get an early lead and let the pitching staff just sit on the opposition. Plays to the team strength, which is generally the bullpen. When Angel is not in there, it seems like the Giants get down 3-0 early and often.