Panik and Susac move from prospects to made men

Baseball America Prospect Report


It looks like these guys will be moving off the prospect list once and for all. They are officially "made" men.

SF		MAJ		Panik, Joe 2B		4		2		2		0		.314		2B (7), BB (14)
SF		MAJ		Susac, Andrew C		5		2		2		3		.288		2B (4), HR (3)

It's nice to see Susac show his stuff at the bat as I initially thought he was rushed up due to the need presented by the Sanchez concussion.  This was based entirely on my observation that Susac "only" had 836 minor league AB's  prior to his call up and the number of AB's other Giants prospects had prior to their call ups.

A cursory look at Baseball Reference data showed the following:

Posey 750 AB's (2008-10)

Sandoval 1818 AB's (2004-08)

Belt 922 PA (2010-11)

Crawford 1189 PA (2008-11)

Sandoval was an INTL signing and the other three were collegiate draftees. 

Some other blasts from the past:

Conor Gillaspie 2223 PA's - College

Nick Noonan 3000 PA's - HS

Kieschnick 2000 PA's - College

Culberson 2900 PA's - HS
Jackson Williams 2000 PA's - College

Wendell Fairley 1600 PA's - HS

Burris 920 PA's 

Freddie Lewis 2727 PA's

Schierholtz 2428 PA's

Gary Brown 2500 PA's - College

Of the recent Giants call-ups:
Joe Panik 1620 AB's
Adam Duvall 1883 AB's
Matt Duffy 942 AB's
Andrew Susac 836 AB's

It seems like for prospects, the organization would seem to know what it has somewhere around the 1,000 AB mark for college hitters and around the 1,500 - 2,000 AB's for a HS hitter. This makes sense intuitively since the HS hitters is making his first 1,000 AB's in the minors. I don't want to get pinned down to a definitive marker and get yelled at and ridiculed like Erricson and the 10,000 Hour Rule, but as a rough rule of thumb, this seems to be the line in the sand that organizations employ. This takes into consideration that some guys are rushed due to organizational need (due to injury or performance) and some guys are blocked at a certain position and their stay in the minors is, in effect, over-extended. I still feel that Gillaspie was blocked in this way with the Giants, but Oh well.

An issue for further study. Here is another story that looks into the issue somewhat as well.
--
from the Hardball Times:
The historic risk of Manny Machado’s promotion – The Hardball Times:

Machado was promoted to the majors after just 928 minor league plate appearances. There have been just six other first-round picks since 1997 who were drafted as position players out of high school and were called up to the majors with fewer than 1,200 plate appearances. Only one of these had fewer plate appearances than Machado.

Cameron Maybin (830)
Justin Upton (957)
Jason Heyward (1010)
Corey Patterson (1015)
Josh Hamilton (1148)
Joe Mauer (1177)

Hamilton had some extenuating circumstances, and was ultimately 26 years old when he made his major league debut, so let’s take him out of this discussion. With the exception of Mauer and Upton, this list is a collection of promise that has thus far gone unfulfilled, and even Upton has had hiccups in two of his five full major league seasons.

...

While minor league numbers often mean little when it comes to gauging a prospect’s potential, I’m a big proponent of allowing a player to dominate a level before moving on so that he gets a taste of what it takes to truly succeed, especially when that player has such an ability to do so. Too often, organizations are willing to play the “young for his level” card to upgrade an average performance in their own eyes.

Heyward is the most recent example of the possible pitfalls of a rushed prospect. Much like Upton and Mauer, he dominated the minor leagues, posting a .968 OPS in his final season, including a 1.057 mark in a half-season in Double-A. In his rookie season in 2010, Heyward looked like one of the few who could handle the limited developmental time, making an all-star team and finishing with an OPS+ of 131.

But the major leagues are unkind. Since then, Heyward has hit .248/.331/.433 and an OPS+ of 106, despite a nice job rebounding this season. He’s just 22, and I still believe Heyward will be a star, but his 2011 season should serve as a warning flag for those teams who believe prospects are ready without significant time in the upper minors.

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And then, the only piece of expert evidence is from John Farrell, where he doesn’t really comment on the point, but implies that the gap between AAA and the majors is wider in bigger markets. Yet plenty of the prospects mentioned as under-performing were in small markets.

Here’s the concluding paragraph:

Too many at-bats in Triple-A is not going to stunt a player’s development, as seen with Andrew McCutchen. Calling up a player too soon, however, has the potential to have serious ramifications years down the road. As the 2014 rookie class clearly demonstrates, the recent trend of accelerated development clearly has not yielded the immediate success at the major league level they are designed to generate.

1. McCutchen, as the article even indicates, actually represents a bit of a departure from the prospect development of stars. Here’s another quote:

Among the notable successes in this class of prospects was Jay Bruce (405 PA), Evan Longoria (158 PA), Jacoby Ellsbury (400 PA), Andrew McCutchen (881 PA), Jason Heyward (13 PA) and Carlos Gonzalez (237 PA).

Now, it’s true, this doesn’t necessarily disprove the point that excess time in AAA can stunt growth. But that’s also not demonstrated by the article. Excess time in AAA didn’t stunt McCutchen’s growth. One data point is hardly generalizable.

2. “Calling up a player too soon, however, has the potential to have serious ramifications years down the road.” This was never really proven by the article, and is a strong, strong statement.

3. “As the 2014 rookie class clearly demonstrates, the recent trend of accelerated development clearly has not yielded the immediate success at the major league level they are designed to generate.” I would be fine with this, but there’s no real indication that there was any grand “design” in place, at least in the absence of some reasonable understanding of either the outside expectations or, more difficult to ascertain, the internal expectations. In other words, this could be true, but isn’t sufficiently proven, either.

Pirates Gregory Polaco, the new Moneyball and the Marshmallow test

 

This is the game that the low to mid tier markets have to play to stay competitive with their larger brethren.



from Yahoo Sports:

Source: Pirates offered star prospect Gregory Polanco a long-term deal - Yahoo Sports:

The situation with Polanco is even more naked. At 12-20, with a .687 team OPS and failing platoon in right field, the Pirates unquestionably could use Polanco, who is hitting .397/.449/.621 with four home runs and 26 RBIs. Between his performance over the season's first month and his MVP showing in the Dominican Winter League, he has solidified his place among the top echelon of prospects – the sort whom teams conspire to keep in the minor leagues until after the projected cut-off for so-called Super 2 players. 

The top 22 percent of each service class are designated Super 2 players, meaning they are granted arbitration – and therefore a higher salary – for four seasons instead of three. By keeping a player in the minor leagues until after the Super 2 cut-off, which is usually in early to mid-June, teams estimate a savings of millions of dollars.

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It has nothing to do with advance stats or stats of any kind, really. It's all about economics and the central lesson of the classic sociological test, the Stanford marshmallow experiment: immediate gratification versus delayed gratification.

This is a trend that the Rays started with Evan Longoria. Remember, they sent him down after a stellar spring, brought him up in April and almost before he performed at the MLB level, they locked him up.



 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_Longoria

On April 12, 2008, the Rays placed Willy Aybar on the disabled list and called up Longoria from Triple-A Durham to replace him on the major league roster and on the 40-man roster. Longoria made his major league debut that night going 1 for 3 with an RBI.

On April 18, the Rays signed him to a six-year, $17.5 million contract with options for 2014, 2015, and 2016. The first six years of the contract cover his arbitration years, with three more years added by team options. If the team exercises its nd-setters?one-year option for 2014, and then its two-year option for the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the deal could be worth up to $44 million.^[12][13] There is a general consensus that this contract is among the most team-friendly, in terms of dollars per Wins Above Replacement, in Major League Baseball.^[14]

Between this economic trend and the more recent on the field defensive "shift-a-palooza" that the Rays employ and now other teams have followed suit, can we begin to refer to the Rays as MLB trend-setters?



The Longoria deal certainly raised eyebrows at the time among fans and pundits. It has now raised the ire of the union and agent class in baseball who believe teams are using it as a tactic to low-ball young prospects and take away some of their bargaining power in later, post arbitration years, after they have put up some actual numbers.

As the saying from an old, auto repair TV commercial lamented, "You can pay me now, or pay me later".

That's the decision that the smaller market teams are faced with in order to compete.

And the future stars are faced with the ever so tempting marshmallow test decision.

Yummy, yummy!!!

Astros SS Correa is the hitter of the day

Carlos Correa is another prospect, much like the Cardinals Tim Cooney, who will not be kept down in the minors for too long. This kid is only 19 years old, but he may head the list of top young SS in the bigs very soon. The Astros could us some excitement. He has to cut down on his strikeouts somewhat, (what prospect doesn't?), but he sure puts a charge into it when he hits it.

It's good to see Panik and Brown off to good starts at AAA. Especially Brown, who has mostly disappointed and under achieved. Panik appears to be quietly posting numbers that indicate he is the most major league ready prospect as  a hitter that the Giants may have. From the looks of things, he may be the only hitter that you can say that about.

Roger Kieschnick joins the spare parts list of ex-Giants along with Nate Schierholtz and Conor Gilaspie as he moves on to the D-Backs organization. Kieschnick was given a small chance to show what he could do late last year and, like Gilaspie and Schierholtz before him, did not show the brass enough.

From an organizational standpoint as far as hitters go, this has been a consistent theme that needs to be addressed. I know some want to give credit for Posey, Sandoval, Belt and Crawford, but I'm not sure I give too much credit for Posey to the organization. He was pretty much a finished product as a hitter on Draft Day. Sandoval is an anomaly. Which leaves Craford and Belt. Not much to show for all that BP and hitting instruction.

Baseball America Prospect Report
Compiled by Baseball America   April 07, 2014

HITTER OF THE DAY: Carlos Correa, ss — high Class A Lancaster (Astros)
Several players had outstanding days at the plate Sunday, as you'll see in the chart below, including C Gary Sanchez at Double-A Trenton (Yankees), who homered and knocked in four runs. But Correa, Houston's No. 1 prospect and No. 7 overall, continued his blazing start in the California League with his first home run in a 3-for-4 night. He's now hitting .533/.556/.800 

SF		AA		Villalona, Angel DH		4		0		1		2		.294
SF		AAA		Brown, Gary CF		5		3		3		0		.368		2B (2), 3B (1), SB (1)
SF		AAA		Panik, Joe SS		5		1		3		1		.313
SF		LoA		Arroyo, Christian 2B		4		0		1		0		.125

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from Bleacher Report:
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dcP48?

CSN Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly reports that the Diamondbacks have claimed outfielder Roger Kieschnick off of waivers from the Giants. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the D-Backs placed pitcher Patrick Corbin on the 60-day disabled list, then assigned Kieschnick to Triple-A Reno.

The Giants had designated Kieschnick for assignment on Saturday after he posted a meager .172/.294/.172 line in 29 at-bats during spring training. Kieschnick, 27, didn’t hit much in his first season in the big leagues last season, either. In 95 plate appearances, he posted a .202/.295/.226 line.

Cardinals LHP Tim Cooney is the pitcher of the day

According to Baseball America anyway. He had a decent chance to stick with the Cardinals after an impressive spring. It doesn't look like he will be in the minors for too long. Maybe just long enough to drop a year from his free agent time.

Just what the Cardinals need, more pitching!! The rich get richer.

His K/BB ratio has been getting better as he rises up the ranks:
High A: 5.75
AA: 6.94
AAA 9.00

Those are eye-popping, jaw-dropping numbers by themselves. To be rising as he encounters better competition is pretty unusual. My guess is this guy knows how to pitch.

Baseball America Prospect Report
Compiled by Baseball America   April 06, 2014

PITCHER OF THE DAY: Tim Cooney, lhp — MEM
There were several excellent outings Saturday night, including Jake deGrom (NYM) at Las Vegas and Jimmy Nelson (MIL) at Nashville, but lefthander Cooney—who's the No. 6 prospect in a very deep Cardinals system, struck out nine in six strong innings in his Triple-A debut. Cooney threw just 88 pitches in an 11-1 win over Iowa, which had Top 100 prospects Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara in the lineup.

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The Puig effect is not good for the Giants

from mlb.com:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_06_30_phimlb_lanmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=28496409&tcid=vpp_copy_28496409

from mlb.com:
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers - June 30, 2013 | MLB.com LAD Recap:

The Dodgers are 15-11 when Puig starts. The club was 23-32 before his debut on June 3.

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Panda back for pivotal L.A. series - Wil Myers debuts in NY - Batman and Robin return to Gotham city

I feel better already.

from Yahoo Sports:
San Francisco Giants - Team Report - MLB - Yahoo! Sports:

3B Pablo Sandoval is feeling good physically. Mentally, he's even better. Sandoval's sprained right foot passed a two-day test in the minor leagues Friday and Saturday on a rehab assignment. He will be activated off the disabled list Monday and is expected to start in the Giants' road-trip opener at Los Angeles. The Giants will be getting a hot bat back in the lineup. Albeit it against Single-A pitching, Sandoval went 4-for-6 in his two appearances for the San Jose Giants, belting a home run in each game he played. He also looked smooth in 12 innings at third base.

'via Blog this'

....from my second favorite 38-37 team. Rays also getting solid efforts from young RHP's Chris Archer and Alex Colome. They are just loaded with young pitching. Now if only David Price can pick it up.

How does that song go "if I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere...." Looks like a good future is in store for Wil Myers.

Wil Myers hits first career home run — a grand slam off C.C. Sabathia at Yankee Stadium

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/wil-myers-hits-first-career-home-run-grand-092359187.html

When the Tampa Bay Rays announced the promotion of top prospect Wil Myers last Sunday, they did so hoping the 22-year-old outfielder could provide a little power while helping to lengthen a lineup that had been struggling to produce consistently.

video of the Myers blast off C.C. Sabathia: http://sports.yahoo.com/video/myers-grand-slam-235400287.html


And in Gotham city, Batman (Matt Harvey) appears to have found his Robin (Zack Wheeler). 

from the NY Daily News:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/harper-mets-peak-future-wheeler-harvey-article-1.1376500


Wheeler from his days as a Giants prospect. (heavy sigh) It's OK,

we had to make the Beltran deal at the time
we had to make the Beltran deal at the time
we had to make the Beltran deal at the time

There, I feel much better.

Fresno Grizzlies' Mike Kickham continues strong audition for Giants call-up - - Fresnobee.com

MARK CROSSE/THE FRESNO BEE

Grizzlies starting pitcher Mike Kickham, after a strong last five starts, could be getting a big-league call-up soon in the wake of the injury to Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong.

Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/05/23/3312052/fresno-grizzlies-kickham-continues.html#storylink=cpy

Kickham is in the middle of a turn-around at just the right time it seems. The Vogelsong injury creates am opening in the starting rotation and Kickham may be able to fill it. His K/BB ratio is about 2.5 ( 54K's and 22 BB's) which is not too shabby. Anything over 2.0 is a pretty good marker for success.


from the Fresno Bee:
Fresno Grizzlies' Mike Kickham continues strong audition for Giants call-up - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

But Kickham has come on strong and has won three straight for the first time in his career after Thursday's performance.

In his past five starts, Kickham owns a 1.72 ERA and is holding batters to a .214 average. He also has struck out 29 and allowed just nine walks in that stretch.

 In fact, Kickham's strikeout-to-walk ratio has been solid all year: 54-22 in 54 innings for the season.

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In fact, Baseball Digest recently published a list of pitchers with the best K/BB ratios with a minimum of 2,000 K's. Granted this is going to give you a list of solid starters by definition. You have to be good to hang around long enough to log 2,000 K's in a career.

Pitcher               Ratio
Curt Schilling        4.38
Pedro Martinez     4.15
Roy Halliday         3.78
Mike Mussina       3.58
Greg Maddux       3.37
Javier Vasquez      3.32
Randy Johnson     3.26
Dennis Eckersley   3.25
Juan Marichal        3.25
Fergie Jenkins       3.20

That would be a pretty solid staff. That's why I like that ratio > 3.0 as a prospect identifier for the minor leaguers. San Jose starter Clayton Blackburn has pretty solid numbers here and Fresno RHP Chris Heston does as well.  It's just a basic, quick and dirty metric that shows a pitchers efficiency in controlling / dominating AB's whether it be via power pitching  (high K's) or control / finesse pitching (low BB's).

As the list above shows, a nice mix of power arms and crafty pitchers.

Prospect Ups and Downs and Timmy Tough

Gary Brown starts to heat up for Fresno 

from the Fresno Bee:
Grizzlies Report for 5/12: Fresno 7, Memphis Redbirds 4, 11 innings - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

Brown warming up: After a slow first month, Grizzlies outfielder Gary Brown is starting to heat up. Brown, one of the top prospects in the San Francisco Giants' farm system, went 3 for 6 with a double and two RBIs. His season average is up to .220. But Brown, who typically starts off each season slow, is hitting .326 in his past 10 games with two home runs and six RBIs, along with three steals. Brown, however, still must work on his strikeout-to-walk ratio, which was 15-2 in the past 10 games and 38-9 for the season.

Cardinals prospect Oscar Tavaras big swing

Prospect goes down: Redbirds outfielder Oscar Taveras, rated the No. 3 overall prospect, injured his right ankle during a slide into second base during the ninth inning with the game tied at 4. Taveras, considered the top prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, is considered day-to-day. The 20-year-old finished 2 for 5 to raise his average to .317, and has four home runs and 20 RBIs.

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Tony Avelar Associated Press Tim Lincecum's outing was the third in his career in which he's gone at least seven innings, allowing two or fewer hits and no runs.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/05/13/5415037/good-day-for-giants-lincecum-he.html#storylink=cpy

from the Sacramento Bee:
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/05/13/5415037/good-day-for-giants-lincecum-he.html

SAN FRANCISCO – After his last start against the Phillies, the eighth outing in a span of 10 by the Giants' rotation that did not qualify as a quality start, Tim Lincecum said he expected there would be some discussion among the five about righting what has been an up-and-down month and a half to start the season.

The topic was broached in the following days, Lincecum said Sunday, though apparently not in any formal setting.

"I mean, it's just kind of one of those things where we kind of kick each other in the ass," Lincecum said.

Metaphorical or not, the intended effect showed over the final three games of the Giants' series win over the Braves, punctuated by a 5-1 win Sunday in what Lincecum readily acknowledged was his best start of the season.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/05/13/5415037/good-day-for-giants-lincecum-he.html#storylink=cpy

The Juice: Shelby Miller retires 27 straight Rockies in one-hit shutout - Yahoo! Sports

It looks like Cardinals RHP wanted to announce his presence with authority.

from Yahoo Sports:
The Juice: Shelby Miller retires 27 straight Rockies in one-hit shutout; Jon Lester one-hits Blue Jays | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports:

A remarkable Friday night for starting pitchers was highlighted by the dazzling performance of St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller. The 22-year-old was basically untouchable, allowing only an Eric Young Jr. single leading off the game en route to his first career complete game shutout and a 3-0 victory for St. Louis.

That's right, Miller retired 27 batters in a row (with 13 strikeouts) and essentially equaled a perfect game, but had to settle for one of the most dominant one-hit performances we've seen in recent history. So dominant, in fact, that according to Yahoo!'s own Jeff Passan, only 18 pitchers have posted a higher nine-inning game score than Miller's 98 since 1916.

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Miller's results were a little better than Nuke's

from Bull Durham:

BaseballAmerica.com: Stats: Roger Kieschnick

15 HR's 40 RBI .306 AVG in 222 AB's in AAA in 2012
4 HR's 19 RBI .307 AVG in 101 AB's in AAA in 2013 so far. Over .900 OPS combined AAA.

It's becoming clear that Kieschnick a) doesn't have much more to prove in AAA and b) may have his path to the bigs blocked by some combination of Hunter Pence, Gregor Blacno and Andres Torres.

By no later than next year, the Giants need to find out what they have here.

from Baseball America:
BaseballAmerica.com: Stats: Roger Kieschnick:

Roger Kieschnick, of, Giants
Proper Name: Roger Keith Kieschnick
Born: Jan. 21, 1987 in Dallas
High School:
College: Texas Tech
Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 220
Bats: L Throws: R

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from the Fresno Bee:
Grizzlies report for 5/2: Fresno Grizzlies 11, Sacramento River Cats 5 - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

Bound for the Bay?: Media reports out of San Francisco indicate Grizzlies OF Francisco Peguero will be promoted in time to join the Giants for their weekend series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which starts tonight. Peguero, who nearly made the Giants out of spring training, is hitting .415 in 16 games, with two home runs, five doubles and 14 RBIs. He also appears back on track -- going 12 for 27 with two homers in eight games -- after missing a week with a bruised shoulder suffered while diving for a fly ball. Most likely heading back to Fresno would be Giants backup C Hector Sanchez, who is hitting .150 and struck out looking as a pinch hitter Wednesday against Arizona.

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Will Matt Harvey be the next Tom Seaver? Or Jeremy Shockey? How about Matt Harvey 1.0?

'67 Mets - Seaver, Koosman, Gentry and some guy named Ryan. First name was Nolan I think.

The Mets have been blessed with great pitching staffs at various times in the franchise history. Now, it seems like they are looking to usher in the next wave. Comparing Matt Harvey to Tom Seaver is quite heady stuff, but remember this is from the same pool of  group-thinkers that was ready, willing and able to order up a Hall of Fame bust for one Jeremy Shockey. And we see how that turned out.

So maybe he is Tom Seaver 2.0. Based on this side by side comparison, sure. Maybe better.

from Bleacher Report:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1618383-comparing-matt-harveys-first-15-mlb-starts-to-tom-seavers

Harvey's off to a great start, no doubt. Based on about a half-season of starts in his career ( small sample ) you can get to a 14-10 record 198 IP, 232 K's all good solid numbers. Even better for a 23-year old who is 6-4, 235 lbs. From there we can project further. He is, after all, only 23 years old. He can only get better, right? Well, no not really, but it's easier and more fun to project from that premise.

Pitching
Year	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2012	NYM	10	10	3	5	0	0	0	0	0	59.1	42	19	18	5	26	70	2.73	1.15	.200
2013	NYM	6	6	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	40.1	21	7	7	2	12	46	1.56	0.82	.153
Career		16	16	7	5	0	0	0	0	0	99.2	63	26	25	7	38	116	2.26	1.01	.182

"He can only get better". Maybe after potential, the most damning words that can be laid on a prospect. And "projection" is a word that in hindsight gets scouts and analysts in as much trouble as the word  "potential" gets a player into.

Because the players' "perceived potential" flows naturally from the "expectations" put onto them that flow from the scouts / analysts "faulty projections". And who gets burned publicly? Not the scout or the analysts. The player who didn't live up to the "flawed analysis", that's who.

Because let's face it, in the entire range of possibilities three things can happen. He can progress or get better and that's where the mind's first reflex goes to wander. But he can also get worse (GASP!!) or remain virtually the same (DULL, no projection!?!). We never consider the other two possibilities as much. There's no fun in that.

from Yahoo Sports:
 http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/ten-surprises-first-month-2013-baseball-season-203335280.html

4. Matt Harvey owns April: Savvy baseball pundits knew a Matt Harvey breakthrough year was a possibility, but that doesn't discount the fact that he's been the breakout star of the first month of the season. On an otherwise boring New York Mets pitching staff, the 24-year-old Harvey has been pitching more like Stephen Strasburg than Stephen Strasburg has. Harvey is 4-0 and is in the top five for strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.

I know everybody wants to be recognized as the first to "call" this guy the next whoever or whatever. It drives traffic and gets your name in the paper and junk as the "next" prospect guru, but... let's just see if the kid can be the first Matt Harvey, shall we? 

Comparisons to Seaver right out of the chute are a bit unfair to the kid. Give him time to be himself NY.

IMO, Seaver and that Ryan kid on the far right of that photo shown above were the two closest things to the "perfect pitcher" model that Tom House tried to pigeon-hole Mark Prior into. And we see how that went....good for Tom House, not so good for Mark Prior.

Talk about flawed analysis and unreasonable expectations.

Is Wilin Rosario the most under-rated star in the NL?

He won't be for very long if comments like these get out there.


from Yahoo Sports: 
Wilin being Wilin? Rockies catcher swinging bat with ferocity of his boyhood idol - Yahoo! Sports:

LOS ANGELES – Dante Bichette, the Colorado Rockies' rookie hitting coach, was endeavoring to explain how Wilin Rosario reminds him of Manny Ramirez, how innate bat speed meets God-granted power meets some other mystical denomination.

Rosario himself sat 20 feet away, rolling the handle of a bat from one hand to the other.

'via Blog this'



His stats from last year were not too shabby and he's off to a good start in 2013. Thirty-eight HR's and 98 RBI's in a little over 500 AB's is pretty good. Any advantages gained by hitting 1/2 the time in Colorado are balanced out by having to squat behind the dish and handle a pitching staff.

Batting
Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	COL	16	54	6	11	3	1	3	8	2	20	0	0	.204	.228	.463	.691
2012	COL	117	396	67	107	19	0	28	71	25	99	4	5	.270	.312	.530	.843
2013	COL	23	85	12	28	3	0	7	19	3	22	3	1	.329	.352	.612	.964
Career		156	535	85	146	25	1	38	98	30	141	7	6	.273	.310	.536	.846

This guy looks like he could be challenging Posey and Molina for that C spot on the NL All-Star team before very long. Maybe this season.

Prospect Face-off: Fresno Grizzlies Francisco Peguero vs. Gary Brown

CRAIG KOHLRUSS/THE FRESNO BEE

Advantage Peguero. His impressive spring is carrying over into the season, which is good news. He could have sulked and brooded about not making the big club after turning some heads, but he didn't. If he projects as a future LF and Brown ends up as a future CF,  the power of the future Giants will have to come from elsewhere as neither projects as a big-time HR hitter. Peguero's problem is he is blocked by both Blanco and Torres and he is a very similar type player to both of them.

from the Fresno Bee:
Fresno Grizzlies outfielder Francisco Peguero's production is big-league worthy - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

In his second go-around in Triple-A, Peguero is armed with more experience on how to handle the better pitchers in the league. Also improved are his ability to handle the inside pitch and his overall strike-zone awareness, Mariano and Peguero agreed.

"The main thing I've changed since spring training is being on time with the inside pitch and pulling the ball," Peguero said in Spanish, using Grizzlies third baseman Juan Perez as a translator. "I have a better mental approach, more competitiveness and more aggressiveness."

Brown, on the other hand, has struggled mightily in his first Triple-A season.

Rated the fourth-best prospects in the Giants organization by Baseball America, Brown is hitting .173 with one homer and eight RBIs. He has struck out 23 times in 104 at-bats.

'via Blog this'

Kickham kicked -- again!?!....That's a catch-phrase we don't want to catch on

Fortunately for the Giants, the LHP's are carrying the load for the big club. Zito is at 3-1 and  Bummer is 3-0. Six and one combined versus a collective 3-5 for the RHP's ( Cain 0-2, Vogi 1-2, Timmy 2-1 ).

Eric Surkamp is not due back ( from TJ surgery ) until perhaps mid-season, so no relief is in sight for Fresno. Kickham is going to have to battle through it. There is no guarantee that Surkamp goes right to AAA after that surgery anyway.

Giants are rapidly approaching .500 and the middle of the division if they are not careful. It's still early but while the Giants and Dodgers were keeping an eye on each other, the Rockies and D-Backs are trying to run off and build an early lead on the "big boys".

from the Fresno Bee:
Grizzlies Report for 4/28: Reno Aces 11, Fresno 2 - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

Kickham kicked -- again: Kickham, regarded as one of the top left-handers in the San Francisco Giants' organization, was shelled for his fourth consecutive start. The 6-4, 220-pounder from Missouri State plunged to 0-3 with a 7.94 earned-run average after giving up 11 hits and eight runs, including six earned. He did strike out seven without a walk, arguably the most important numbers given the conditions. The four-game series produced an average of 15.3 total runs a game -- not unusual at the high, thin air, where balls carry.

'via Blog this'

Carter Jurica adjusts to Triple-A promotion with Fresno Grizzlies just fine - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com

GARY KAZANJIAN - Fresno Grizzlies shortstop Carter Jurica

Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/04/28/3277925/carter-jurica-adjusts-to-triple.html#storylink=cpy

This is a surprise to the plus side for the Giants. I was actually more than surprised to see Jurica begin the season at the AAA level. There was nothing I saw in his prior stats that would appear to warrant the move. In hindsight, the scouts and developmental staff had it pegged correctly.

Maybe Jurica has some of that "TWTW" Hawk Harrelson talks about. The stuff that all the SABR tools and metrics still have difficulty measuring. Or maybe I was just wrong. I'll have to factor that possibility into future calculations. Put that into your SABR-metrics and smoke it!! Dad gum it!!

from the Fresno Bee:
Carter Jurica adjusts to Triple-A promotion with Fresno Grizzlies just fine - Fresno Grizzlies - fresnobee.com:

"His swing is a lot better," said Mariano, formerly the Giants' minor-league hitting coordinator. "He's able to let the ball get deep in the zone and use the right side of the field, especially with two strikes. That's what you look for in a good hitter."

Defensively, Jurica isn't a glove wizard scouts look for in a big-league shortstop. He projects more at second base or as a utility player. So far, though, he is holding his own with three errors in 83 chances.

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Cubs Likely To Draft Appel Or Gray: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Appel has a longer and more durable track record, but comes with sign-ability concerns that only Scott Boras can bring. The somewhat eerie comparisons to Mark Prior should not be an impediment to the Cubs since under Theo those ghosts no longer remain. The sign-ability issue should not be as large with the Cubs either. If Boras can't get what he wants / needs / expects from Chicago, he can't get it anywhere.

The comps on Gray could be too alluring to pass up. And we do know that the Theo's of the world have an affinity for trying to prove that they are smarter than the crowd. That should tip the balance towards Gray.

Astros could make the choice easier for the Cubs, but they may avoid both. They have gone more for top end HS'ers lately ( four of last six years - http://espn.go.com/mlb/history/draft/_/team/hou ) and may find one of the two GA boys a little too enticing to pass up.

from MLBTradeRumors.com
Cubs Likely To Draft Appel Or Gray: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

Major League Baseball's draft is still about six weeks away, but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the Cubs are likely to draft either Stanford right-hander Mark Appel or Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray with the No. 2 overall pick. Wittenmyer spoke about the draft to multiple team sources, including manager Dale Sveum who told him:

"Obviously, the two big boys, Appel and Gray, if those guys keep the velocity where it is and everything’s going good, I think it’s hard not to take one of them guys."

Appel and Gray are widely considered to be the top two pitching prospects in this year's draft, but other names such as high school outfielders Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier, as well as San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea have garnered attention as potential Top 5 selections.

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For some feedback on Gray, this local source is about as good as it gets. This kids stock could rise all the way to the #2 slot.

from NewsOK:
http://newsok.com/oklahoma-baseball-jonathan-grays-stock-is-on-the-rise/article/3781550

Shades of Gray

OU right-hander Jonathan Gray is dominating college hitters and tempting professional personnel men, with his draft stock climbing toward to the top of this June's MLB Draft — maybe all the way to the top. The vitals on Gray:

Height: 6-4

Weight: 240

Throws: Right

Stuff: Fastball that sits at 94-97 mph and can touch 100; cut-slider that ranges from 83-88; changeup that runs low 80s.

Stats: Gray is 6-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings. He's allowed 34 hits and 11 walks. Opponents are batting .167 against him.

Draft stock: Rising. Gray is now being mentioned for the No. 1 overall pick in MLB's June Draft, alongside Stanford's Mark Appel and Indiana State's Sean Manaea, two other noted pitchers.

Compares to: According to baseballdraftreport.com, scouts have favorably compared Gray to several successful pros — Detroit's Max Scherzer, the Mets' Matt Harvey, former Sooner Garrett Richards of the Angels, Pittsburgh top prospect Gerrit Cole. And then there are the eye-opening comps — Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander.