Stat of the Week: Who will throw the next No-Hitter? | ACTA Sports

If you can get a match up of any two of the pitchers on this list, it becomes must-watch TV. We had King Felix vs. MadBum the other night and it did not disappoint. Bumgarner was obviously geeked up, tossing 95 MPH a couple of times and Hernandez was as sharp as a tack.

Maybe another Bummer vs. Kershaw match up when the Giants pass through LA?

Vogelsong looked sharp with the fastball last night, some 93's with great command, hitting his spots well. He needed that to solidify his spot as # 4 or #5 starter with Cain/Peavy due back. Allegedly.

Archived Stat of the Week | ACTA Sports: 

Who Will Throw the Next No-Hitter? June 11, 2015

Two nights ago, Chris Heston threw the first no-hitter of the 2015 season. It was an impressive game, with Heston striking out 11 Mets hitters and getting 13 more to ground out, one for a double play. There were only two flyball outs. According to Baseball Info Solutions’ (BIS) Range and Positioning System, there were only two balls put into play that had a higher than 50 percent chance of being a base hit: a groundball hit by Ruben Tejada in the seventh inning and a groundball hit by Wilmer Flores in the eighth. However, both were easily turned into outs because Brandon Belt was well positioned, playing deep into the hole between first and second base. In fact, every play the Giants made on defense was easy. The video scouts at BIS rate the difficulty of every ball in play on a 1-5 scale, with 1 being routine and 5 being impossible, and there was not a single play given a higher rating than a 2 during that game. So now that the first no-hitter of 2015 is out of the way, who is going to throw the next one? Every year in the Bill James Handbook, we publish a list of the most likely pitchers to throw a no-hitter during the upcoming season in the Career Targets section of the book. The system for determining the likelihood of throwing a no-hitter is based on a pitcher’s projected games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, hits allowed, and double plays induced. Here are the most likely no-hitter candidates from the 2015 Bill James Handbook: Most Likely No-Hitter, 2015 Player Chance of No-hitter Clayton Kershaw, LAN 25% Chris Sale, CHA 23% Stephen Strasburg, WAS 21% Corey Kluber, CLE 20% Max Scherzer, WAS 20% Yu Darvish, TEX 18% Felix Hernandez, SEA 18% David Price, DET 16% Madison Bumgarner, SF 15% Zack Wheeler, NYN 15% This list obviously includes the best and biggest arms in baseball. While pitchers like Chris Heston can sneak up on us with a no-hitter, the household names are still the guys that are most likely to achieve the feat

'via Blog this'

Hesto Presto pitches No-No (gets Buster hug)

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/heston-wraps-no-hitter-045837245.html (VIDEO)
Chris Heston, right, celebrates his no-hitter with Buster Posey on Tuesday night. (Getty)

If you told most baseball observers before this game that a no-hitter would be pitched I would venture to say that almost all would have simply asked "How many strike-outs did Syndegaard have?" It's possible that most Giant fans would have asked the same or a similar question. That's why you have to watch the games.

from mercurynews.com
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/giants/2015/06/09/chris-heston-makes-giants-history-no-hits-mets-in-new-york/

Heston did not have that buzz. A 12th-round pick in 2009 out of East Carolina University, he wasn’t on the opening day roster – an injury to Matt Cain meant he joined the rotation at the last minute – and went unclaimed when the Giants designated him for assignment a year ago.

Amazing that any major league team could have plucked him from the Giants last year. Amazing in hindsight that the Giants exposed him like that. It just goes to show you that you never can tell.

Chris Heston continues his roller-coaster season and marches into the Giants history book. Great job!!

more pics from thescore.com
http://www.thescore.com/news/777978

Posey perfects the art of framing with the walk-off, 3rd strike frame

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2015/5/28/8685049/sf-giants-recap-scoreless-streak

There is no better Buster than cocky Buster. 

This was the highlight of the game, other than the good Chris Heston showing up to out-duel the Braves starter Shelby Miller.  Buster leaves the stage entirely to the umpire to display his punch-out mechanic. Our work is done boys. Let's hit!! 

Jake Peavy's rehab assignment didn't go too well last night. If he can't get minor-leaguers out, how does he take this kid's spot?

With Heston and Vogie clicking and Timmy starting to pick up the pace, I've hardly noticed Peavy and Cain not being around. Short of "Brandon Crawford's magical glove", Chris Heston is the runner-up answer in the "Where would the Giants be without.....?" contest. 


Bummmer, Timmy, Timmy, Vogie and Heston - Not bad. A little tilted to the right-side, but not bad. When they keep it in the park, these guys can keep opponents down. 

Chris Heston joins a list of all aces, no jokers; Matt Duffy is great at No.8 - Giants Extra

The Free Matt Duffy!!! campaign continues, with increasing intensity as nights like this continue to pile up on his side of the ledger. He's hitting over .300 after last night. Chris Heston has been perhaps the second most dependable starter on the Giants at this point. It may be a bit early to label him an ace, but to say he goes from a bottom of the rotation starter to potentially a top of the rotation starter ( a solid 2 or 3 ), I am comfortable saying that. Let's see a couple of more quality starts strung together first.


from Giants Extra:
Extra Baggs: Chris Heston joins a list of all aces, no jokers; Matt Duffy is great at No.8; Hunter Pence hits a Vegas jackpot - Giants Extra:

But other than that one pitch, it is hard to be more dominant than Heston was at Minute Maid Park. It’s all the more impressive that he threw his two-seamer, curve and changeup for strikes one start after the San Diego Padres peppered him for 11 hits in five innings.

Quite simply, Heston had tremendous stuff and he stayed aggressive in the strike zone. It is not easy at all to strike out 10 and go the distance on as little as 111 pitches.

Here’s proof. We’ll take that list back a little further beyond Bumgarner, Kershaw and Tomlin. Here’s every pitcher in the last 25 seasons who threw a CG and met the 10-K, 2-H, 0 BB criteria on 111 pitches or fewer:

2015: Chris Heston
2014: Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Tomlin
2012: James Shields, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain
2009: Cliff Lee, Jonathan Sanchez
2007: Erik Bedard
2006: John Lackey
2005: Roy Halladay
2004: Matt Morris
2001: Curt Schilling
2000: Pedro Martinez
1999: David Cone
1996: Curt Schilling, Jeff Fassero
1991: Terry Mulholland
1989: Dave Stieb

There are plenty of Cy Young Award winners on that list. There are a few future Hall of Famers, including one who will be inducted in July. With the exception of Tomlin and Sanchez (from his no-hitter night), all of them were rotation aces at one point in their careers, and most were established No.1s for the better part of their baseball lives. They made lots and lots and lots of money.

What’s the point of all this? Well, in 25 years, you can count exactly one middling pitcher (Tomlin) who got lucky on a random night and had a start as dominant as the one Chris Heston threw against the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The kid might not be a future Hall of Famer. Nothing in life is guaranteed. But performances like these are not flukes. His talent is genuine, and he has the ability to be a huge asset to the Giants rotation for a long time.

'via Blog this'

Before last night, the Giants were 16-16. About of 1/5th of the season in the books. On the hitting side, we are starting to see some trends develop, still a mix of surprise and shittiness, leaning more towards shittiness.

In terms of Isolated Power - ISOPOW = ( SLG% - Avg. team average is about .125 ) 
Brandon Crawford @ .212 leads the pack (still a surprise)
Justin Maxwell .169 (pleasant surprise, Not Michael Morse, but the glove gets love)
Gregor Blanco .147
Andrew Susac .143
Buster Posey .130 (yuk!!)
Joe Panik .129
Joaquin Arias .125
Brandon Belt .118 (yuk!!)
Casey McGehee .107 (yuk!!!)
Matt Duffy .091 (before last night)
Angel Pagan .083 (WOW!!)
Nori Aoki .084 ( no surprise )
Hector Sanchez .064 (WOW!!)

In terms of plate discipline and control of AB's, I have two pet metrics.

• Discipline ( OBP-AVG ) 
• Ratio BB/K

Discipline ( team average is about .070 )

Crawford .104 (respsect or better discipline? Who cares as long as it continues)

Belt .086 (no surprise)

Posey .084 (still respected)
Aoki .079
Blanco .079 (pleasant surprise)
Susac .073 (pleasant surprise)
Maxell .063
Panik .060 (thought it would be better here)
McGehee .046
Duffy .037 (surprise to the low side)
Pagan .022
Arias .000 (yuk!!)
Sanchez .000 (yuk!!)

BB/K Ratio ( team average is 0.45 )
Posey 1.15
Aoki 1.00
Panik 0.85
Blanco 0.58
Crawford 0.50
Susac 0.50
Belt 0.48
Maxwell 0.33
Pagan 0.28 (why he's better in the 3 hole, but needs more pop)
McGehee 0.28 (yuk!!)
Arias 0.00 (yuk!!)
Sanchez 0.00 (yuk!!)

The surprise is that Duffy is remarkably close to McGehee across these metrics, yet Duffy @ .273 Batting Avg. versus .179 for McGehee. BABIP luck in play? Apparently Bochy thinks so. It just boggles my mind that McGehee can crap the bed for a month and a half, but let a rookie have a bad game and a half and they grab some pine. Did the organization learn nothing from the Dan Uggla Experience which begat Joe Panik? Maybe lightning does strike twice.

Free Matt Duffy!!!

Amazing that Pagan is hitting so high, I hope it continues. Posey and Belt have to start popping the ball before Pence gets here because he cannot be expected to jump right on the moving train and produce power.

I don't know what to say about Arias and Sanchez except trade bait. It seems as if Posey and Susac can both catch Timmy as well as (or better than) Sanchez and we can't afford the drop-off in offense Sanchez currently gives you.

On the pitching side, if BB/K is a good go-to metric for hitters, then the inverse should work on the pitching side, right? Let's see. The average K/BB   is 2.44

K/BB Ratio - WHIP Avg.
Bumgarner 5.25 - 1.10 .235
Romo         4.50 - 1.16 .200
Lopez         4.00 - 0.65 .154
Kontos        3.00 - 0.95 .203 (pleasant surprise)
Heston        2.90 - 1.30 .282 (pleasant surprise, don't crown him an ACE yet)
Petit            2.33 - 1.18 .219
Casilla        2.20 - 1.26 .250
Hudson       2.11 - 1.33 .289 (could go either way)
Vogie          2.00 - 1.44 .263 ( has to get better )
Lincecum    2.00 - 1.19 .228 ( maybe he's figured out how to pitch to contact )
Peavy           1.75 - 2.09 .353 ( yuk !! )
Machi           1.11 - 1.40 .220 ( he's a nail biter )
Affeldt         0.50 - 1.50 .267  ( pitches to contact and lives to tell about it )

The Big Four in the bullpen have kept the staff together, buying time for the starters to get their act together. You don't want to wear them out though. Cain and / or Peavy have to get back in the mix and start producing. If not, Vogie and Hudson have to hang in there and get better.

From the farm, perhaps Okert can come in and provide some bullpen innings from the left side. If Romero finds the magic, he can help short-term, otherwise maybe it's time to throw Ty Blach (LHP) or Clayton Blackburn (RHP) into the deep end of the pool and see what happens. Of the two, I think Blackburn could provide quality innings, but the Giants are more in need of starter help from the left-side.

Giants raise banner, waste Heston's effort

Ho hum, another World Series Championship banner was raised in SF yesterday. Put it next to the other two even year banners, would you fellas?

Another solid start by Heston, as he now is beginning to look like the most sturdiest option not named Bumgarner in the starting rotation.

from Giants Extra:
UPDATED: Not a banner performance for Giants offense in 2-0 loss to Rockies - Giants Extra:

“Every year is it’s own entity,” said Buster Posey, part of the dwindling core that has been part of all three World Series championship teams. “It’s too early to tell. I mean, look at the first two months last year. It looked like we’d win 100 games.” 

 They won 88, which was just enough to squeak into October. With their lineup lacking power and missing key personnel, and their aging rotation already rummaging for quality starts, what is their strength this time around? How will they build to 85 wins and beyond? 

 “That’s the appealing part of baseball,” Posey said. “You know there will be ups and downs and you’ve still got to be tough through the long haul.”

'via Blog this'

You can be an optimist like Posey and say "we've been here before" or "we know when and where to turn it on", blah, blah, blah. In some way I feel like this inevitably leads us down the odd year blues path.

I suppose you could also look at it my way and say "OMG, since the first two months of last year, when we looked like we were going to win 100 games, this team has virtually limped through regular seasons at a barely .500 pace and amped things up during the playoffs.".  The problem is you somehow have to find a way to slog through the 162 game regular season and MAKE the playoffs. This team is looking like it may not have the capacity to do that at anything more than a .500 pace and that is an early concern.

I don't buy the premise that we came off a good road swing either. A 3-4 record is not a good road swing. You balance a .429 road wining percentage with a .571 home defense and you are still staring into the .500 abyss, which is Out of the Playoffs-ville. A good road swing would have been 4-3. I know it sounds like a thin margin or pessimistic hair-splitting, but the difference between a good season (or player) is either built or destroyed on such razor thin margins.

In the past, teams like the Lakers used to very vocally and publicly stick a flag in the ground and say they were going to repeat and virtually dare the competition to step up and stop them. Maybe baseball is somehow different, but I'm not sure I get the same vibe from the team or the organization as far as defending the title(s). It is a tougher row to hoe.

Heston helps salvage series

Chris Heston helped the G-men win the series, while the offense continued to surprise to the upside. It looked a little dicey early, as Heston gave every indication that he was not ready for prime time. Once he settle down, it was smooth sailing. It is good to know he will be available with the recent rash of injuries to the starting staff.

from Espn.com
http://espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=350408129

Heston (1-0) got off to an inauspicious start, but stayed steady in his second big league start, winning for the first time after going winless in three appearances last season.

The Magnificent Seven melted down to the Magnificent One quicker than a Florida snowman in July. The Giants really need the Two Timmy's to reach back to their Glory Days rather quickly.

Giants Designate Chris Heston For Assignment: MLB Rumors

If this is true, perhaps the total impact of the Francoeur signing eventually becomes Cole Gillespie and Chris Heston? That would be a bit steep even if, as Schulman says, Heston has taken a step backwards in his development.

This year, what major Giants prospect hasn't regressed other than perhaps Jake Dunning?

from MLBTradeRumors.com
Giants Designate Chris Heston For Assignment: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com:

Heston checked in at 17th among Giants prospects on Baseball America's pre-season ranking after a strong showing in Double-A last year, where he posted a 2.24 ERA over 148 2/3 innings and clocked 8.2 K/9 versus 2.4 BB/9. He was added to the 40-man over the off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Known as a "groundball machine" (per Baseball America), Heston has thrived as a pitchmaker in spite of his far-from-overpowering stuff.

In his first stint at the Triple-A level, however, Heston has struggled to a 5.80 ERA over 108 2/3 innings. His strikeout ratio is right on par with his career norms at 8.0 K/9, but his walks are up and he has allowed many more long balls than in past seasons. (Heston posted 2.4 BB/9 last year to go with a paltry -- and surely unsustainable -- .1 HR/9. This season, he stands a 3.8 BB/9 and has allowed 1.2 HR/9.) Nevertheless, given Heston's relatively strong prospect standing, Schulman wonders (also via Twitter) whether a trade could be in the works, since he "can't believe they'd let him go for nothing."

'via Blog this'

Heston was ranked as high as #8 be MLB.com among Giants prospects, statistically he appeared close in stature to Mike Kickham and along the same developmental glide path. His K/BB ratio was a solid 3.44, above average and better than Kickham's 2.13 coming into the season. Maybe the organization is having second thoughts after his struggles at AAA. His K/BB ratio there declined to around 2.10, so perhaps the thought is let him regroup at AA, which makes two prospects moving down a level after Oropesa was demoted from AA back to High A. Yeeesh!!



from MLB.com:
Chris Heston
Position: RHP
Age: 25, DOB: 04/10/1988
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6' 4", Weight: 185
Drafted: 2009, 12th (357) - SF
Twitter: @Hesto23

 Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 5/5 | Curveball: 4/5 | Changeup: 5/5 | Control:5/ 6 | Overall: 5/5

Command type right-handers often struggle when they make the move up to Double-A. Heston clearly didn't get that memo as he used his average stuff and excellent feel for pitching to lead the organization in ERA. His sinking fastball may top out at around 92 mph, but he uses a good downhill plane and gets a lot of groundball outs with it. His big curve often has good bite and rotation and thanks to good arm speed, his changeup is effective and deceptive. He commands all of his pitches well, getting ahead of hitters regularly. His ceiling might be limited, but it's looking like his floor is too, with a future in the middle to back of a rotation coming soon.