Tweet by Simon Nainby on Twitter

Ouch!! That hurts. So more doesn't always equal better? Like you can have plenty of knowledge, yet not enough wisdom, which is the application of knowledge?

Preaching to the choir. This exemplifies the problem of relying blindly/too much on a statistical model per se, without paying equal attention to how you are going to use those statistics, that knowledge.

	Simon Nainby (@SiNainby)
10/22/15, 5:11 AM "More data such as paying attention to eye colors of people when crossing a street can make you miss the big truck." pic.twitter.com/MtVSByxXUT

Download the Twitter app
Sent from my iPhone

The Dodgers may have lost a game, a series, a shot at a World Series berth and a manager all because a SS didn't know he had the cover of 3B when the 3B was shifted into RF. You can say that is not a failure of the statistical model all you want, but in a reach to maybe shave what .005 or .010 point off the opponents average, to say nothing of being slavish adherents to a "follow the cool trend or get left behind" the Dodgers came up big losers. And that is with having a big check book to back up the Moneyball approach which seems like an oxymoron. But that's modern day baseball.

Let;s see if the Mets and the Matt Harvey saga come up to bite them on the butt when they least expect it for similar underlying reasons.

Oh yeah, and the A's finished in last place.

Cespedes Family BBQ on Twitter: "Always key to draft guys who can play"

CespedesBBQ: "Always key to draft guys who can play http://t.co/Sb7dJuPcPE"

 Found via Team Stream by Bleacher Report.

This is an early front-runner for tweet of the year, IMO. Simple, no-nonsense and a lot of common-sense. This is/should be the sixth tool. "Can he play?" We know there are quite a few so-called five-tool guys who fail to make it? Well, how can someone who has all the tool not make it? Because he can't play.

Remember this play?

1974 WS Gm2: Marshall picks off Washington in ninth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWb80Qz75bk

Herb Washington was going to create a new position in baseball to rival the DH. He was going to be the designated runner (DR). Charlie Finley, the A's owner was a maverick. Always thinking outside the box. Here, he out-thunk himself by not asking this simple question, "Can he play?"

from yourememberthat.com
http://www.yourememberthat.com/media/17684/Herb_Washington_Pickoff_-_1974_WS/#.VXbiX89Viko

In 1974 Oakland Athletics' owner Charlie Finley signed 22-year-old Herb Washington to an MBL contract. Washington's baseball experience was minimal, but he did hold the indoor world record in the 50-yard dash. Throughout the 1974 season, Washington never once batted or played a defensive position. His sole task was to pinch-run. He stole 29 bases in 45 attempts--which is not really a good success rate for a fast MLB baserunner. In Game #2 of the 1974 World Series, Washington was brought in to pinch-run for Joe Rudi in the top of the ninth inning with one out and the A's trailing the L.A. Dodgers 3-2. To the delight of baseball traditionalists who viewed Washington as an unqualified interloper, Mike Marshall decisively picked off Washington in front of a huge NBC television audience. Curt Gowdy and Vin Scully call the play. Washington's out effectively squelched an A's rally. (They had scored twice in the top of the ninth to make the game close.) The Dodgers won the game 3-2. Washington was cut by the A's in May 1975 and never played baseball again.

It's such a great question that needs to asked a lot throughout baseball. I use a derivative of the question a lot as an answer to questions I hear from around the ball field.

It is that great a question, it is so versatile, that it can serve as the answer to other questions.

Here are some examples:

• Q: Should I buy my son/daughter that new, expensive bat to help him/her make the team?
• A: It helps if he/she can play. 

See you have to change the order of the words around a little bit, but it works!!

• Q: Should I take my son/daughter for private lessons or that Olympic athlete workout facility to elevate his game?
• A: Umm....it helps if he/she can play.

Q: Cool......is this question/answer transferable to other areas of my life? Is this like a magic question or something? 

A: I'm picking up on your sarcasm there, Champ. But yes it is transferable. Listen up!!!

(Editor's Note: Best Q&A/sentence in blogging history. Why? Best comedy scenes of all time)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mSd5t2n3ck Tommy Boy - Picking up on you sarcasm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZkbtP-t_D8 My Cousin Vinny - Were these magic grits? 

• Q: My Boss doesn't respect me at work, should I take some college courses to improve my job skills?
• A: It helps if you can play.

• Q: My wife is thinking of leaving me, should I consider counseling to help save our marriage?
• A: It helps if you can play. 

I'm thinking of using this as an answer to every difficult life question thrown my way for the next thirty days, I think it's that good. 

Remember, boys and girls.....It helps if you can play!!

Giants meet with free-agent lefty Lester | sfgiants.com

blog.sfgate.com

For all the reasons noted in the story, mark me down for a no on this one. The last attractive, former A's lefty we signed to a mega-deal didn't exactly turn out really well. Or did it? I'm so confused......go ahead, sign him. It's not my money, so WTFDIK?

P.S. - My preference is that all this Lester-lust is an organizational head-fake that leads the Giants to acquire James Shields or Jeff Samardzia.

from sfgiants.com
Giants meet with free-agent lefty Lester | sfgiants.com:

Though multiyear contracts are always risky, the Giants probably would gamble on Lester, who turns 31 in January. Having spent his career primarily in Boston and entirely in the American League, he owns a 15-7 record with a 3.06 ERA in 29 Interleague starts. Lester won both of his appearances at San Francisco's AT&T Park, yielding one earned run in 17 1/3 innings. 

Moreover, the Giants have established a precedent for making lucrative, long-term deals with pitchers. The seven-year, $126 million contract they gave Barry Zito before the 2007 season was the highest ever received by a Major League pitcher at the time. Cain received a six-year, $127.5 million extension in April 2012. Lincecum never has signed a contract exceeding two years but has earned $75 million in the last four seasons. 

To have a chance at signing Lester, the Giants probably would have to make him their highest-paid player, since the average annual value of the contract he ultimately receives could approach $25 million. Cain, due to earn $20.833 million in each of the next two seasons, will top San Francisco's annual payroll until catcher Buster Posey's yearly salary soars to $22.178 million in 2017."

'via Blog this'

Giants' success weighs on Dodgers - True Blue LA

Mark it down as a bit of schadenfreude on my part, but I enjoy reading about some of this navel gazing on the part of Dodger Nation and A's Nation for that matter. Toss in how Moneyball aficionados angst is rising as they try to explain the Giants success and you have the trifecta of glee for me.

The Giants recent success can be attributed largely to a shift from the Bonds era to spackling and pasting the roster together with aging veterans to building it via old school blocking and tackling in the form of scouting and player development.

from True Blue LA:
Giants' success weighs on Dodgers - True Blue LA:

"I don't think you can win three World Series in five years just by being lucky. That may be stating the obvious There is no doubt that in the postseason, with a single-elimination game, or playing in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, there are certainly times you need the ball to bounce your way," Zaidi said. "Luck is not a sufficient characteristic for a team to win. You've got to be really good, and have the ball bounce your way too.

The Giants won this year with homegrown players at each starting infield position, plus catcher Buster Posey, too. But what is remarkable to me about their five-year run is that in each of the three title years they have had a different ace starting pitcher, with Tim Lincecum in 2010, Matt Cain in 2012 and Madison Bumgarner in 2014. All three pitchers were drafted by San Francisco, and all are still around.

'via Blog this'

"Luck is the Residue of Design" meets "Luck is the differential between the expected result calculated by my theoretical model and the actual result". 

The irony is that the "Luck is the residue of design" quote is attributed to former Dodger GM Branch Rickey, the Billy Beane of his time.  So we come full circle, or everything old is new again, I guess.

Giants as the anti-A's

Hey thanks there, Einstein. I'm glad that the Giants are considere the anti-A's in more ways than one. I'm also glad when any one of the pro-scout, anti-Moneyball teams like the Giants, the Cardinals, the Braves and even the Royals win. These teams still retain a lot of the charm of old-school scouting and player development with a smattering of statistical analysis.

I read somewhere that the amount of statistical analysis in baseball has gone up exponentially by some insane amount or another. I guarantee most of these teams are just gathering data as a CYA exercise and have no idea what they are looking at or what to do with most of it.

from sfgiants.com
Giants' latest title offers questions, answers | sfgiants.com:

Maybe the wrong Bay Area baseball franchise was celebrated in a best-selling book and a feature film that grossed more than $100 million worldwide. Certainly the Oakland A's and general manager Billy Beane offered a compelling story for the world to absorb with "Moneyball."

The Giants are perceived as the anti-A's, and yet San Francisco's the team that keeps ordering championship flags and rings.

As the Giants' GM, Sabean has created a culture in which many baseball-operations employees don't want to leave the organization. He asks for unswerving loyalty, but he also reciprocates it. The resulting "collective collaboration," as Sabean called it, helps the Giants act in concert when reaching a baseball-related decision.

'via Blog this'

This article from Tracy Ringolsby tends to support my point. The top NL franchises of the last 19 years ( the length of Brian Sabean's tenure ) have been none other than the Giants, the Cardinals and the Braves. All of these franchises lean more towards scouting and player development than statistical analysis.

from Tracy Ringolsby:
Sabean Doesn’t Want Attention, Just Wins « Write 'em Cowboy:

And under his guidance the Giants, in the last 19 years have:

–Third best winning percentage in the NL (1,556-1,358, .534) behind the Braves (1,651-1,263, .567) and Cardinals (1,545-1,319, .547).

–Played more post-season games (76) than any NL team other than the Cardinals (121) and have a better post-season winning percentage (.605) than any team that has played at least 34 post-season games.

–Have made four World Series appearances, the only NL team other than the Cardinals, who also have made four, to have been in the World Series more than twice, and have won an NL-best three World Series in the last 18 years.

And don’t forget he took advantage of the San Diego Padres decision to fire manager Bruce Bochy by quickly signing Bochy to oversee things at AT&T Park.

Not bad for a franchise being run by an “idiot.’’

'via Blog this'

Vegas gives A's better World Series odds than Giants | CSN Bay Area

The A's have a slight advantage in the Vegas World Series odds at 11/1 while the Giants are at 12/1. (USATSI)

Vegas like the LA LA's. Giants have equal odds of getting to the World Series according to Vegas, but greater chance of winning the whole thing if they get there. Makes sense given prior history.

from CSN Bay Area:
Vegas gives A's better World Series odds than Giants | CSN Bay Area:

Odds to win the 2014 World Series

Los Angeles Angels -- 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers -- 5/1
Washington Nationals -- 11/2
Detroit Tigers -- 6/1
Baltimore Orioles -- 13/2
St. Louis Cardinals -- 8/1
Oakland Athletics -- 11/1
San Francisco Giants -- 12/1
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 14/1
Kansas City Royals -- 16/1 

Odds to win the 2014 AL Pennant

Los Angeles Angels -- 2/1
Detroit Tigers -- 11/4
Baltimore Orioles -- 3/1
Oakland Athletics -- 6/1
Kansas City Royals -- 7/1 

Odds to win the 2014 NL Pennant

Los Angeles Dodgers -- 2/1
Washington Nationals -- 21/10
St. Louis Cardinals -- 17/4
Pittsburgh Pirates -- 13/2
San Francisco Giants -- 13/2  

'via Blog this'

A's Acquire Lester, Gomes For Cespedes

The A's are flat out going for it!!  Right now, this year.


from mlbtraderumors.com
A's Acquire Lester, Gomes For Cespedes:

A’s Acquire Lester, Gomes For Cespedes
By Steve Adams [July 31, 2014 at 8:54am CDT]

8:54am: Passan tweets that Oakland is also sending a competitive balance draft pick to the Red Sox in the trade, and Boston is sending cash to Oakland. The A’s landed the second pick in Comp Round B in last week’s lottery.

 8:49am: The Athletics have acquired Jon Lester from the Red Sox, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com (Twitter links). In what will be a blockbuster deal, Jonny Gomes will go to the A’s, and Yoenis Cespedes will head to Boston. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first reported that Lester had been traded to an unknown club.

The addition of Lester will give Oakland an incredibly formidable rotation for the balance of the regular season, but perhaps more importantly, in the playoffs. Lester, who has posted a 2.52 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 43.2 percent ground-ball rate, will join fellow trade acquisition Jeff Samardzija, free agent signing Scott Kazmir and homegrown star Sonny Gray atop Oakland’s rotation.

'via Blog this'

A's Prospect Desme gets The Call

This is such a great story. I know my wife will love it dearly (and wish she posted it to her blog first) and I love her dearly, so here goes. It is so easy for young people to get caught up in the self-absorbed, self-centered lifestyle of big time professional athletics and pursue self gratification and glory. It renews your faith to see young people that have a proper sense of what is truly important in life and have the courage to pursue it.

He appears to be a solid prospect for the A's and had a super year in Hi-A ball for them last year. That partially explains why the A's organization is feeling a bit of angst today thinking about why a guy would give up all that a life in baseball has to offer.

AWESOME story, and I am trying to cut down on my use of the word awesome, but I do think it may apply here.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Oakland-As-prospect-leaving-baseball-for-priesthood-012210#

A's prospect leaving baseball for priesthood

Rob Fai isn’t surprised that Oakland A’s prospect Grant Desme is ending his baseball career to enter the priesthood.

The timing? To him, that’s the shocking thing.

Desme is leaving the game at a time when his fortunes seemed to be rising fast. He batted .288 with 31 home runs and 89 RBIs in 131 games last year. Then he starred in the Arizona Fall League, where some of the game’s top prospects compete. He likely would have started this season at Class AA.

“Here’s a kid that’s on the brink,” Fai said over the phone from Vancouver, B.C., where he works as the assistant general manager for the Oakland affiliate there. “This would probably be an easier decision for someone who was maybe going through the motions in the minors.

“But if you know Grant, the spiritual side of his life has always been a priority. I don’t know if there was a tipping factor that made him wake up and say, ‘Today’s the day.’”

“I’m doing well in baseball,” Desme told reporters on Friday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. “But I had to get down to the bottom of things, to what was good in my life, what I wanted to do with my life. Baseball is a good thing, but that felt selfish of me when I felt that God was calling me more. ... I love the game, but I’m going to aspire to higher things.”

Desme may never play in the major leagues, but he certainly knows what it feels like to get The Call.

information from thebaseballcube.com

Full Name: Gregory Grant Desme
Born: Apr 4,1986 in Bakersfield, California
Height: 6-2 Weight: 205 Bats: Right Throws: Right
High School: Stockdale (Bakersfield, California) "Mustangs"
College: San Diego State University, Cal Poly

Drafted: Selected by Oakland Athletics in 2nd Round (74th overall) of 2007 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) (Signing Bonus: $432,000)

Greater things are yet to come, greater things are still to be done in this city...