2020 MLB Mock Draft

This will be my "official" order for the 1st Annual SABR Northeast Florida Chapter Mock 2020 MLB Draft Invitational Challenge. The draft will be held June 10th, deadline for entry is midnight 6/9.

There seems to be a consensus around the top three or four picks, then after that it should get interesting. Where there appears to be duplicate entries in the rank column, signifying a virtual tie,  I broke the ties based on variance of opinions, but the person listed first on this list is the correct order for me. 

It was interesting to note that Baseball America, long regarded as one of the best resources in this type of exercise, changed their methodology somewhat. Their ranking seemed out of line with the other experts, more so than in past years. It will be interesting to see how "correct" the new methodology grades out to actual. 

The final grade of course is unknown for 5-10 years or more. 

** UPDATED 6/9/2020 10:20AM

PLAYER	SCHOOL	POSITION	RANK
Spencer Torkelson	Arizona State	1B	1
Austin Martin	Vanderbilt	OF/3B	2
Asa Lacy	Texas A&M	LHP	3
Emerson Hancock	Georgia	RHP	4
Zac Veen	Spruce Creek (FL)	OF	5
Nick Gonzales	New Mexico State	SS/2B	6
Max Meyer	Minnesota	RHP	7
Heston Kjerstad	Arkansas	OF	8
Reid Detmers	Louisville	LHP	9
Mick Abel	Jesuit (OR)	RHP	10
Garrett Mitchell	UCLA	OF	11
Austin Hendrick	West Allegheny (PA)	OF	11
Robert Hassell	Independence (TN)	OF	13
Patrick Bailey	North Carolina State	C	14
Ed Howard	Mount Carmel (IL)	SS	15
Cade Cavalli	Oklahoma	RHP	16
Garrett Crochet	Tennessee	LHP	17
Tyler Soderstrom	Turlock (CA)	C	18
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Harvard-Westlake (CA)	OF	19
Jared Kelley	Refugio (TX)	RHP	20
Cole Wilcox	Georgia	RHP	20
Nick Bitsko	Central Bucks East (PA)	RHP	22
Dillon Dingler	Ohio State	C	23
Bryce Jarvis	Duke	RHP	23
Justin Foscue	Mississippi State	2B	25
Bobby Miller	Louisville	RHP	26
Slade Cecconi	Miami	RHP	27
J.T. Ginn	Mississippi State	RHP	28
Aaron Sabato	North Carolina	1B	29
Nick Loftin	Baylor	SS	30
Carmen Mlodzinski	South Carolina	RHP	31
Jordan Westburg	Mississippi State	SS	32
Austin Wells	Arizona	C	33
Clayton Beeter	Texas Tech	RHP	34
Carson Montgomery	Windermere (FL)	RHP	34
Chris McMahon	Miami	RHP	36
Casey Martin	Arkansas	SS	37
Jordan Walker	Decatur (GA)	3B	37
Tanner Burns	Auburn	RHP	39
Daniel Cabrera	Louisiana State	OF	40
CJ Van Eyk	Florida State	RHP	41
Kevin Parada	Loyola (CA)	C	42
Carson Tucker	Mountain Pointe (AZ)	SS	43
Dax Fulton	Mustang (OK)	LHP	44
Masyn Winn	Kingwood (TX)	RHP/SS	45
Drew Romo	The Woodlands (TX)	C	46
Isaiah Greene	Corona (CA)	OF	47
Justin Lange	Llano (TX)	RHP	48
Cole Henry	Louisiana State	RHP	49
Alika Williams	Arizona State	SS	50

PLAYER	SCHOOL	POSITION	RANK
Spencer Torkelson	Arizona State	1B	1
Austin Martin	Vanderbilt	OF/3B	2
Asa Lacy	Texas A&M	LHP	3
Emerson Hancock	Georgia	RHP	4
Zac Veen	Spruce Creek (FL)	OF	5
Nick Gonzales	New Mexico State	SS/2B	6
Max Meyer	Minnesota	RHP	7
Heston Kjerstad	Arkansas	OF	8
Reid Detmers	Louisville	LHP	8
Garrett Mitchell	UCLA	OF	10
Mick Abel	Jesuit (OR)	RHP	11
Nick Bitsko	Central Bucks East (PA)	RHP	12
Patrick Bailey	North Carolina State	C	13
Austin Hendrick	West Allegheny (PA)	OF	14
Robert Hassell	Independence (TN)	OF	15
Ed Howard	Mount Carmel (IL)	SS	16
Garrett Crochet	Tennessee	LHP	17
Tyler Soderstrom	Turlock (CA)	C	18
Cade Cavalli	Oklahoma	RHP	19
Jared Kelley	Refugio (TX)	RHP	20
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Harvard-Westlake (CA)	OF	21
Cole Wilcox	Georgia	RHP	22
Dillon Dingler	Ohio State	C	23
Bryce Jarvis	Duke	RHP	24
Slade Cecconi	Miami	RHP	25
Justin Foscue	Mississippi State	2B	25
Bobby Miller	Louisville	RHP	27
Nick Loftin	Baylor	SS	28
J.T. Ginn	Mississippi State	RHP	29
Jordan Westburg	Mississippi State	SS	29
Clayton Beeter	Texas Tech	RHP	31
Aaron Sabato	North Carolina	1B	32
Carmen Mlodzinski	South Carolina	RHP	32
Austin Wells	Arizona	C	34
Carson Montgomery	Windermere (FL)	RHP	35
Chris McMahon	Miami	RHP	36
Casey Martin	Arkansas	SS	37
Jordan Walker	Decatur (GA)	3B	38
CJ Van Eyk	Florida State	RHP	39
Tanner Burns	Auburn	RHP	40
Daniel Cabrera	Louisiana State	OF	41
Drew Romo	The Woodlands (TX)	C	42
Dax Fulton	Mustang (OK)	LHP	43
Masyn Winn	Kingwood (TX)	RHP/SS	44
Justin Lange	Llano (TX)	RHP	45
Alika Williams	Arizona State	SS	45
Kevin Parada	Loyola (CA)	C	47
Cole Henry	Louisiana State	RHP	48
Burl Carraway	Dallas Baptist	LHP	49
Carson Tucker	Mountain Pointe (AZ)	SS	50

Listen to Smart Baseball: Discussion on New Stats v Old Stats in Podcasts

JACKSONVILLE - Wharton Business Radio consistently has great, relevant content regarding the "data analytics" revolution, which makes sense, they are an Ivy League school.

It puts the "Moneyball Revolution" in proper context and where it should be IMO, less about re-inventing, re-tooling and re-configuring the game ( and I agree with MadBum's recent comments re: this issue, "too may changes" to the game ) and more about just good, old-fashioned decision making within a business context.

If you change the fabric of the game too much, you lose much more than you gain. Introducing a "shot-clock" to a game that has historically been promoted as charming due to the fact that it is not chained to a clock is IMO,  the last shoe to drop. Then we'll see what happens.

MLB had better be dang sure that the number of millennials or other previously disinterested fans gained outnumbers the number of so-called "purists" lost. Put that in your risk-return analysis pipe and smoke it.

Listen to Smart Baseball: Discussion on New Stats v Old Stats from Wharton Business Radio Highlights in Podcasts.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wharton-business-radio-highlights/id1147257638?mt=2&i=1000411580568

Baseball clubs now rely less on subjective scouting reports in hiring players, using data to tell an accurate picture of player performance, past performance and future performance, preventing costly hires. Senior baseball ESPN writer, Keith Law, joins host Dan Loney to discuss how the analytic revolution in baseball is here to stay as outlined in his book "Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats that Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones that are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball" on Knowledge@Wharton.

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Listen to From Wharton Student to Eagles NFL Analyst in Podcasts

JACKSONVILLE - Namita Nadukumar is becoming a rock star in the data analytics world, she has put out some great research and analysis on the NHL Draft, which an NFL team obviously feels could be of value. From what I have read, some would also be of significant value in baseball.

Listen to From Wharton Student to Eagles NFL Analyst from Wharton Business Radio Highlights in Podcasts. 

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wharton-business-radio-highlights/id1147257638?mt=2&i=1000411032094

Namita Nandakumar, Wharton Senior, Teaching Assistant, and Research Analyst, joins hosts Cade Massey, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner to discuss her post-graduate move to Quantitative Analyst for the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles this season on Wharton Moneyball.

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Giants MLB Draft Review

JACKSONVILLE - Giants returned to form after Joey Bart with college RHP's here in the fourth and fifth rounds with Blake Rivera - comps to Craig Kimbrell -- a very intriguing pick. They followed with Keaton Winn, another JUCO pick from Iowa Western CC.  Winn was a Mississippi State commit, which is a good endorsement and a multi-sport athlete, so a good pick here. Hilson is another good athlete and an Alabama commit. He was a two-way player in HS but projects more as an OF prospect in the pros, given his other tools (switch-hitter, good bat/foot speed).

If 2-3 of the top five hit for you, normally that would be considered a decent haul. The Giants could hit that mark. The early picks are neatly in line with the pre-draft evaluation, so no great leaps of faith. 

All of the first ten rounders are signed.  

George Bell, 6-4,215 JUCO OF in the 13th round could end up being the sleeper pick of this draft for the Giants.

Jake Wong, RHP, Grand Canyon University

https://youtu.be/V7vH6_UK3Pg

JACKSONVILLE - Wong burst on the scene with a decent showing as a reliever in the Cape Cod League in 2017. He followed that up with a good junior year at Grand Canyon University. He may project more as a reliever than a starter featuring a low to mid 90's FB and a slurvy slider. His command seems to come and go as the innings mount which may lead him down the Kyle Crick path.

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This quote is fairly accurate I'm sure, DePodesta is a pretty sharp guy.

1st Round:   50/50 chance of good MLB player
2nd Round:  25% chance of good MLB player
3rd Round:   12.5% chance of good MLB player
4th Round:   6.25% chance of good MLB player
5th Round:   3.125% chance of good MLB player

6th Round and above, you're looking at greater than 50:1 odds of success. 

It seems like in the first three rounds, you better get some guys who have produced at a fairly high level, fairly consistently. After that, you go shopping for some new toys for your developmental guys that may have some dings on them, but that you have some reason to believe that they can polish up and be made to look like the shiny new toys you drafted earlier.

Giants select Sean Hjelle in 2nd Round

https://youtu.be/IZcdema3dhY


JACKSONVILLE - This pick fit the Giants draft M.O. to a tee. Large, collegiate RHP's attract the Giants attention. They draft a lot of them and throw them against a wall to see how many stick.

I liked the Giants chances of getting him with the second pick early on and he is worth the risk at the spot. Good stuff, room to fill out and he is going to get a lot of leverage and downward plane on the ball due to his size. Plus there shouldn't be a long wait time. You'll know what you have pretty quickly.

I don't think he cracks the Top Ten yet, but perhaps a slot or two below. Rookie ball this year and maybe a High-A slot in the near future. You won't really know what you have until he reaches High-A or Double A. He did compete in the SEC, so good competition should not cause him to wilt.

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A RHP at 6-11, 225 lbs. is rare, but he repeats his mechanics well and his command is good for the size. FB at 91-93 consistently with tops at 95-96. The Giants developmental staff will look to consistently find that 95-96 and probably add a slider/cutter to round out the repertoire. He projects as a mid-rotation starter without the tweeks and a top of the rotation candidate with the adjustments. 

By the numbers: Breaking down the 2018 Draft

JACKSONVILLE - Over half of the players drafted come from 5 states (CA,FL,TX, GA, NC), two-thirds come from colleges and universities and over half the players drafted are pitchers. Also noted that the SEC and the ACC remain the two best conferences in college baseball according to the draft data. 

from mlb.com
https://www.mlb.com/news/by-the-numbers-breaking-down-the-2018-draft/c-280156760?tid=167757330

By the numbers: Breaking down the '18 DraftJun. 6th, 2018The 2018 Draft is in the books, with 1,214 players taken over three days and 40 rounds. Now all 30 teams will work to get these players signed before the July 6 deadline. Players came from all over the United States and Canada, from high school and college and from every position on the diamond. Here's a deeper dive into the Class of 2018.

Breakdown by school

There were 805 players from four-year schools taken, or 66.3 percent of all draftees this year. That continues an upward trend. In 2017, it was 63.5 percent; in 2016, 62.9 percent of all those drafted came from four-year colleges. High schoolers made up 24.96 percent of the class, down from 25.7 last year and 25.9 in 2016.

          No School: 2

High School: 303
Junior College: 104
College: 805

Ever since the bonus pool system now in use for the Draft was implemented, teams have been using picks, particularly later on in Day 2 of the Draft, to save money in order to sign players in other areas who require a bonus above pick value. Those discounted players often come in the form of college seniors, and plenty of them were taken this year, 311 to be exact (27 fifth-year seniors). That's actually down a tick from last year, when 328 seniors were selected.

Breakdown by programThe University of Florida made a big splash early on, with three players taken in the top 33 picks: Jonathan India (No. 5 to the Reds), Brady Singer (No. 18 to the Royals) and Jackson Kowar (No. 33 to the Royals). But the five Gators total taken across all 40 rounds wasn't even close to leading the way:

Kentucky: 13
Texas Tech: 11
Arkansas: 11
Wichita State: 11
North Carolina: 10
South Carolina: 10
There were five schools with eight drafted players: Tennessee Tech, Arizona, Louisville, Mississippi and Vanderbilt.

Breakdown by positionPitching, once again, ruled the day. A total of 653 pitchers were taken, or 53.8 percent of all draftees.
RHP: 500
LHP: 153
OF: 215
SS: 100
C: 115
3B: 50
2B: 40
1B: 31
Util: 10

Breakdown by state

It was a relative down year for the state of California in terms of high-end Draft talent, with four players -- high schoolers Cole Winn, Brice Turang and Matt McLain, to go along with Stanford's Nico Hoerner -- being taken in the first round. That didn't keep the state from being the most represented one across all 40 rounds.

California: 187
Florida: 158
Texas: 114
Georgia: 65
North Carolina: 49

The top four is the same as the last two years, with North Carolina supplanting Illinois, the No. 5 state in 2017, this year. There were players from 47 states taken.

You down with PDP?There were 145 players taken who participated in Prospect Development Pipeline events run by Major League Baseball and USA Baseball in 2017-18. That's an increase of close to 117 percent compared to the 2017 Draft. That list includes 13 players taken in the first round (top 30 picks), headlined by No. 6 pick Jarred Kelenic.

Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLB Pipeline. Follow him on Twitter @JonathanMayo and Facebook, and listen to him on the weekly Pipeline Podcast.

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Giants refocus Draft picks on college talent

Outside of Bart, Hjelle, Wong, Rivera and maybe 6th round HS OF Patrick Hilson, if the Giants get any return elsewhere in this draft it will be pure gravy. The need a big hit from Joey Bart and some return from Hjelle.

Blake Rivera is intriguing with the comps to Craig Kimbrel. 5th rounder Keaton Winn sounds like a prototypical Giants pick, a big, sturdy, college RHP.

from mlb.com
https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/giants-refocus-draft-picks-on-college-talent/c-280090260

College talent is crux of Giants' Draft haul

Catcher Bart and pitchers Hjelle, Wong, Rivera highlight early-round picks

Jun. 4th, 2018

SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants, traditionally a franchise with a college emphasis in drafting, surprised many last season when they took a trio of high-upside high school prospects in the first three rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft.

• Draft Tracker: Every Giants pick

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But in 2018, San Francisco reestablished its focus on college talent, and pitching in particular, as it used the second overall pick on the mature bat of Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart and took college arms with seven of its next nine picks.

• Giants pick C Bart 2nd, tall righty at No. 45

San Francisco added five prospects ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 200, headlined by Bart (No. 6) and a trio of established college aces in Sean Hjelle (Kentucky, No. 44), Jake Wong (Grand Canyon, No. 72) and Blake Rivera (Wallace State CC, No. 111). The club took No. 94 prospect Brett Hansen, a left-hander from local Pleasanton, Calif., in the 38th round, but he is expected to attend Vanderbilt in the fall.

• Giants dig deep to draft pitching talent

The Giants, who had drafted 19 high schoolers in the previous three Drafts, used 35 of 40 picks on collegiate talent. Ten came from junior colleges, headlined by fourth-rounder Rivera, fifth-rounder Keaton Winn (Iowa Western CC) and 13th-rounder George Bell Jr. (Connors State College), the son of 1987 American League Most Valuable Player Award winner George Bell.

• Giants draft son of former MVP Bell in 13th

In fact, of the five high schoolers selected by the Giants, only Hansen and speedy sixth-round outfielder Patrick Hilson, drafted out of Nettleton HS (Ark.), were from the continental United States.

Shortstop Edison Mora (Round 7), outfielder Bryan Hernandez (Round 18) and catcher Angel Guzman (Round 21), the other three pre-collegians, were all drafted out of Puerto Rico.

Selected with a rare top-five pick, only the fifth in franchise history, Bart gives the Giants the sure bat they coveted (.359 average, 16 homers, 1.103 OPS in 57 games this season) in a Draft light on premier catching talent, and perhaps an heir apparent to the 31-year-old Buster Posey behind the plate, though the Giants are a "best player available" organization that doesn't consider Major League need in its drafting.

"We, as a philosophy here -- and that's throughout our organization here -- we don't draft for need for what our big league club is, because a lot can happen in a one-year period of time or different years," scouting director John Barr said.

San Francisco has built a large chunk of its homegrown core with effective drafting in the middle rounds, with a number of first-rounders (Madison Bumgarner, Chris Stratton, Posey, Joe Panik) complemented by players like second-rounder Andrew Suarez, third-rounder Mac Williamson and fifth-rounders Brandon Belt and Ty Blach.

• SF's 4th-rounder drawing Kimbrel comparisons

With that in mind, the Giants' selections in the top 10 rounds suggest that this could be a class that builds towards the pitching staff of the future, with Hjelle (7-5, 3.44 ERA) and Wong (9-3, 2.81 ERA) flashing potential as rotation arms.

Rivera's curveball might be one of the best pitches in this Draft, and he has drawn comparisons to Craig Kimbrel for his journey, repertoire and mentality despite having started for two years in college. Winn excelled as both a starter and a reliever at the junior college level.

In total, the Giants drafted 23 pitchers, four catchers, seven outfielders and six infielders. According to MLB Pipeline, the Giants' top 30 prospects include 14 pitchers, two catchers, nine outfielders (including five in the top six) and five infielders.

Do-Hyoung Park is a contributor to MLB.com based in the Bay Area.

Read more: San Francisco Giants

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