Showing posts with label Khalil Greene. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Khalil Greene. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Where in the world is Khalil Greene?


 Former Cardinal Khalil Greene played his last game five years ago, and has apparently accomplished his goal of dropping out of sight. (File)

A sad story for baseball fans, but maybe a happy ending for the individual. This kid could really, really rake. I thought he would win a batting title one day. For some, money truly cannot buy happiness. It's sad to me that he had to find happiness away from the pressures of baseball.


By Rob Rains 

GREER, S.C. – The wording might be a little different, but the essence of the question is the same, whether it comes from somebody who knew Khalil Greene in high school, college, the minor leagues or in the majors – a group that includes teammates, coaches and scouts. 

"Do you know where he is?"

Five years after he played his last game for the Cardinals, and his last game in the majors, at the age of 29, walking away from the game he loved because of his problems with social anxiety disorder, Greene has seemingly fulfilled a goal of making himself as invisible as possible when he was done playing baseball.

"He told me, 'When I get done with baseball, you will probably never see me or hear of me again,'" said Cardinals pitcher and former teammate Adam Wainwright.

A desire to talk with Greene, and attempt to find out what his life has been like after baseball, was unsuccessful. Interview requests, submitted through a variety of individuals, were either ignored or dismissed. Sources did confirm that he lives in Greer, S.C., just outside of Greenville, about 40 minutes away from where he became one of the best college baseball players ever at Clemson but there are no property records listed in his name on file. He has been married since 2006 and he and wife Candice have two young sons. 

Despite the proximity to Clemson, his coach there, Jack Leggett, has not talked with or seen Greene for some time.

"That's sad for me," Leggett said. "I've tried to reach out and leave messages but I don't know if they are being heard or not. At one point I talked to his parents (who also live in Greer) a while back. I always had a soft spot in my heart for him. I love Khalil and I love what he has done for our program. All the memories and thoughts I have of him are positive."

Leggett is not the only one who feels that way about Greene. Interviews with those former teammates, from high school through the major leagues, coaches and scouts painted the picture of a player – who despite possessing premier talent – just could not escape the reality that he could not be perfect, eventually reaching the point in the majors that he would often try to inflict pain on himself as a form of punishment when he failed to get a hit or made an error.

"I honestly think the game rattled him," said one of his Cardinal teammates in 2009, Skip Schumaker, now with the Reds. "That happens all the time. It's rattled me. I'm not immune to this social anxiety thing. It's tough … I think he is probably happy wherever he is, not having to worry about fielding a ground ball or getting a hit. I think he had enough of the game."

"More talent than Ripken" 

From a young age, the game was the focus of Greene's life. Born in Pennsylvania, his family moved to Key West, Fla., when he was five. By then Greene already had been playing Whiffle ball for three years, but he played soccer first when the family arrived in Key West before a friend's dad got him involved in the local baseball program. Greene's father reportedly kept a ball which Greene literally had hit the cover off. When he had to answer a question in grade school about what he wanted to do when he grew up, Greene answered, "play baseball." When the teacher said he needed a backup plan, Greene didn't have one.

Brooks Carey also grew up in Key West playing baseball. A left-handed pitcher, he reached Triple A with the Orioles and Reds before his career stalled. He moved back home after his father underwent a heart transplant, and some friends asked if he could fill in as an umpire for a youth league. That was the first time Carey saw Greene.

"I was standing behind the pitcher's mound calling balls and strikes," Carey recalls, the memory as fresh as if happened last month instead of 23 years ago. "A ball was hit in the hole at shortstop, and this kid made a major-league play. Then the kid got to the plate. 

"I thought he might be the best player in America. You couldn't really be any better than he was. He looked out of place because he was so much better than everybody else."
Greene was 11 at the time.

By the time Greene became a senior at Key West High School, Carey was the school's coach. Greene already had helped the school win a state championship as a sophomore and the team won again two years later in 1998.

"I played with Cal Ripken when he was 17 and 18 years old and I thought Khalil had more talent than Cal," Carey said. "Cal used to get upset when I said that. So during spring training, the Orioles had a day off and I asked Cal to come down and throw out the first pitch at one of our games and told him, 'watch the kid play. I don't know what to tell you. He's better than you.'

"Khalil hit leadoff, and about the second or third pitch of the game he hit the ball about 420 feet onto the soccer field. I think he hit .500 that year and his on-base percentage had to be .600 or .650. He was unreal."

At least one scout noticed. Doug Carpenter, now with the Indians, was the area scout for the Cardinals in south Florida at the time. He wasn't certain Greene's skills projected as a major-league shortstop but told Carey the Cardinals would draft him in the second or third round and give him a $250,000 signing bonus if Greene would agree to sign and become a catcher.

The three - Carpenter, Carey and Greene - met for breakfast one morning when the team was playing in Boca Raton, Fla. 

"I told him, 'Doug, I can tell you right now you are going to ask him and he is going to look at you and say no'," Carey said. "He doesn't talk in sentences. I never heard his voice until the middle of the season when I went out to shortstop one day at practice and asked him a question. I just thought he was an introverted type of guy.

"Doug asked him that question and Khalil just said, 'No thanks' and kept eating. Doug started laughing because that was what I had told him Khalil was going to say."

Whether that word got around the scouting community or not, Carey didn't know, but the draft came and went in 1998, through all 50 rounds, with no team selecting Greene. Carey, who had played for Mike Martin at Florida State, tried to interest his former coach in Greene but was told the team had other plans.

A rival coach agreed to come see Greene play during a tournament in Atlanta. Tim Corbin was an assistant at Clemson at the time, and is now the head coach at Vanderbilt, where he led the Commodores to this year's NCAA Division I championship.

Corbin remembered having seen Greene the year before at a high school showcase but this time he was more focused on watching him.

"He was a player you had to see a couple of times to understand what his true value was to a team," Corbin said. "The more I saw him over the course of that week the more I knew he was a really good player who could do a lot of different things. When he was at bat or had a ball hit to him, you would walk away thinking, 'that's the best player on the field.'"

Corbin signed Greene to a scholarship and over the course of the next four years, Greene blossomed into a first-round draft pick and a player who as a senior won five national player of the year awards as he led Clemson to the College World Series. As a senior he hit .470 with 27 homers and 91 RBI in 71 games.

"He will always be the greatest college baseball player that I've ever been exposed to in terms of having an opportunity to coach him," Corbin said. "There is no one who can do some of the things he could do on the field."

His head coach, Leggett, agreed. Every time he looks out to left field at Clemson's home field, Doug Kingsmore Stadium, he sees the banner on the wall saluting Greene for that season.

"The year he had was the best I have ever seen," Leggett said. "He was always very private and quiet, but when it came time to play he was always ready, he always had the right frame of mind. He was just one of those kids who went about his business in his own way. 

"He was very disciplined off the field and very regimented in what he ate. He ate tuna fish right out of the can and ate oatmeal for breakfast every morning. He just marched to his own drum. But all of his teammates would probably tell you he was the best player they ever played with."

Greene also was smart. He had a lot of interest in art and wanted to major in that subject at Clemson but the class times conflicted with the baseball practice schedule, so he became a sociology major and earned all-conference academic honors for three consecutive years. 

He also was a very strict follower of the Bahai faith, having been raised in that religion by his parents. His first name, Khalil, means "friend of God." His middle name, Thabit, means "steadfast." It was partly because of the religion that he took such good care of himself, always working out in the weight room and staying away from the college student's normal diet of pizza's and fast food.

Mike Rikard had watched Greene as an assistant coach at Wake Forest and as an opposing manager in the summer Cape Cod League before becoming an area scout for the Padres during Greene's junior year at Clemson.

"He was always a real interesting kid to me," Rikard said. "Looking back, he was just so incredibly amazingly disciplined in everything that he did. He was eating a low-fat, high-protein diet before that was the cool thing to do. He was so focused and driven. Everything he did was just so precise – how he took batting practice, how he fielded ground balls. It was like he was a 10-year major-leaguer in his routine and he was still in college.

"Off the field he was different. I don't think he engaged a lot socially. He was really into rap music. He was a really cool guy but he was definitely different, with different interests.

"As a scout a big part of our responsibility is to try to assess makeup and how driven a certain player may be, with the ultimate goal to be a good major-league player. I couldn't have had more confidence that he was that type of guy. He was so driven, so focused. Kind of looking back the one question maybe I ask myself was how much fun he was having on the field."

One of the times when Greene allowed himself to have fun was going to Corbin's house to watch professional wresting events on television.

"I enjoyed the theater of it, and got to know him better through that," Corbin said. "I was struck by his intelligence and his inner soul. He's not one of those personalities who is going to hit you in the face but the more you are with him, the funnier you find him, the smarter you find him. He is somebody who does not want any attention whatsoever." 

Rikard, now a national cross-checker for the Red Sox, convinced the Padres to use the 13th overall selection in the 2002 draft on Greene, an unusually high spot to draft a college senior but that was how much Rikard believed in Greene's ability.

A few days after the draft, Rikard was at Clemson as the Tigers played Arkansas in the Super Regional, with a spot in the College World Series at stake.

Rikard was watching as Greene came to bat in the ninth inning of his final home game.

"I kind of get goosebumps telling the story," Rikard said. "It was kind of like something out of a movie. He got a standing ovation from the entire stadium, and then he hit a ball off the top of the batting eye in center field. It was one of those moments where you just went, 'wow'."

Greene left Clemson for life in the minor leagues, with the promise of a successful major-league career on the horizon. It took less than two seasons, and just 191 games spread across four levels of the minors, before Greene found himself in San Diego, making his debut for the Padres on Sept. 3, 2003 against Arizona. His first starting assignment came two days later.

All of those who had been part of his journey, from Carey to Corbin, Leggett to Rikard and countless others, expected it would be just a matter of time before Greene established himself as a star at that level as well. 

None knew, however, the seriousness of Greene's personal anguish that would force him from the game only six years later.

"A quiet guy"

Mark Loretta was the Padres' second baseman that night 11 years ago, the man who would be the closest to Greene on the field for the next two seasons. He saw Greene's talent, but he wonders now about what he didn't see.

"I have nothing but fond memories of playing with him and knowing him," Loretta said. "He was very quiet, an introverted sort of guy that took baseball very seriously. I tell a story pretty often about how he would be in the weight room maybe a half hour before a game. He had these mats set up and he would be diving and sliding, pretending that he was making great plays.

"I asked him what he was doing, and he said, 'if you are going to make these kinds of plays you've got to practice them.' I had never seen that before and have never seen it since."

Another time, Greene actually wrote a rap song about the players on the Padres.

"He performed it in front of us in the locker room in Arizona," Loretta said. "I'll never forget it. He mentioned a bunch of different players and coaches and had a rhythm and beat to it. That kind of brought him out of his shell a little bit."

That moment was an unusual exception, however.

Loretta, who now works in the Padres front office, said neither he nor his teammates ever saw indications that Greene was struggling with social anxiety issues but heard about it a few years later.

"Baseball is an anxiety producing game with a lot of failure," Loretta said. "Every player kind of deals with that performance anxiety, and that failure, differently. In his case I think it was probably more difficult for him than others to deal with that.

"We kind of understood that he was quiet and introverted and went about his business in a professional way … Players kind of get tunnel vision, particularly during the season. You are concerned with your own performance. That was part of the reason even his teammates didn't see exactly what he was going through."

People saw the broken fingers on his right hand, injured while playing defense in 2004 and 2005, and the toe he fractured while diving for a ball. They also saw the torn ligament in a finger hurt while batting in 2006. 

In one of his infrequent interviews, Greene discussed the injuries with a San Diego Union-Tribunereporter during spring training in 2007.

"I don't look at it as I'm unlucky or that this is unfortunate, I look at it as a test," Greene was quoted as saying. "There are things that happen to you – whether it's in your profession or outside of your profession. Things happen for a reason and it's not for me to analyze it and find out a reason why.

"Sometimes it's for you not to figure out, you're not necessarily to know everything."

Greene overcame those injuries and had the best year of his career in 2007 – hitting 27 homers and driving in 97 runs as he played 153 games – and hopes were high for his continued success in 2008. Instead, Greene's power numbers dropped and his average tumbled to .213. On the night of July 30, he struck out for the 100th time, prompting him to take out his frustration on a dugout wall. The result was a season-ending broken wrist.

Needing to cut salary that winter, the Padres traded Greene to the Cardinals, who at the time only saw a shortstop with power potential who should have been approaching his prime. They didn't know about the underlying issues.

One possible warning sign came from Padres manager Bud Black the day of the trade. 

"One of the things that people don't really see is how he internalizes so much," Black told the Union-Tribune. "He doesn't let it out, but he's a player who cares a great deal about his performance, to the point where it gets to him.

"I wish he would let go and enjoy how good he is. But for whatever reason, he can't do it."
It turned out Greene couldn't do it in St. Louis either, where his anxiety problems led him to twice being placed on the disabled list.

"It was never brought to my attention and any inside information we had from a medical standpoint it was never revealed," said Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak. "It was something we didn't have any history with. Unfortunately he was dealing with some demons that were something he could not overcome."

"We didn't know how to help"

Mozeliak was excited when he got Greene, giving up reliever Mark Worrell and a second player to be named later, which turned out to be reliever Luke Gregerson, in the deal.

"Anybody who got to watch him play in those first few years in the big leagues knew he was a gifted player," Mozeliak said.

On April 6, 2009, Greene was in the Cardinals opening day lineup, playing shortstop and batting cleanup. His second at-bat produced a run with a single, scoring the day's starting pitcher, Wainwright, but the transition to playing in a new city did not start off well.

Greene hit .219 in April, with two homers and just 8 RBI in 64 at-bats and in May his average dropped to .171 in 41 at-bats. On May 29, he went on the disabled list. It was the beginning of the end.

An attempt to play again in June was aborted after only 11 days and Greene went back on the DL. He missed all of July, and started a total of five games the final two months of the season, most often appearing as a late-inning defensive replacement. 

"I thought he was a great guy, a great teammate," Wainwright said. "He was extremely sneaky funny with a very dry humor. He liked talking about things besides baseball. When he did engage with you he wanted to talk about songwriting or music or stuff like that.

"It was unfortunate to see the way baseball can kind of weigh on you. Mentally it was very tough on him."

Wainwright, and Schumaker, both saw Greene attempt to hurt himself on the field when he thought he had failed or made a mistake.

"He had some things he would do on and off the field," Wainwright said. "On the field he would scrape his hands real hard on the clay and scratch himself. He would scratch his arms real bad with his fingernails. You could tell he was just battling so hard. He was really grinding mentally with the expectation to go out and get a hit every time. That can weigh on you.

"We didn't know how to help Khalil. All you could do was try to be a good friend and good teammate and hope he would come around."

That was all Schumaker and the rest of the Cardinals could do as well.

"I think music was more of his passion than baseball," Schumaker said. "He really cared about baseball and really wanted to perform well, and when it didn't happen he didn't know what else to do except hurt himself. It was sad to watch and witness. 

"He would just get really frustrated and not know how to react or show it without hurting himself a little bit."

On Oct. 4, the final day of the regular season, Greene came to bat as a pinch-hitter for Todd Wellemeyer in the 10th inning facing John Axford of the Brewers. He struck out on four pitches, swinging and missing on the final pitch. He walked back into the dugout, and even though nobody knew it then, away from baseball.

"I prefer to be anonymous" 

Greene was not on the roster for the Division Series as the Dodgers swept the Cardinals. On Nov. 5, he was granted free agency. In January, 2010, it was announced that Greene had agreed to a minor-league contract with the Texas Rangers but as spring training camps were opening in late February, the Rangers said he would not be reporting to their camp, and Greene quickly slipped out of the limelight and the public eye. 

"It surprised me more that he signed a deal with Texas than him leaving the game," Schumaker said. "I thought with all of the stuff that went on here (in St. Louis) I wasn't surprised that he was out of the game."

Greene played 736 games in his major-league career, compiling a .245 average with 90 homers and 352 RBI. In his six years in the majors, he earned an estimated $14.3 million.

What he could never find, no matter how hard he tried, was a way to cope with failure, how to forget about striking out or committing an error. The game that came so easily to Greene for the first 23 years of his life was the same, but the pressure of trying to succeed at the highest level was just something he could never escape. 

"He had a flair to him without having any flair, if that makes any sense," Corbin said. "He almost brought attention to himself because of the fact that he didn't want any attention. He just played the game, I would call it with grace, but just a very conservative nature. I just felt there wasn't anything he couldn't do offensively or defensively."

What Greene couldn't do was the one thing now – at the age of 34 - he seemingly has managed to accomplish.

In that spring training interview in 2007 Greene said, "I prefer to be anonymous."

"I never got the feeling he was defined by baseball at all," Loretta said. "He was good at it, he enjoyed it to an extent, but it wasn't the only thing in his life. He was different than your stereotypical baseball player."

Of all the many people Greene came into contact with because of baseball, one of the few who has continued to maintain a relationship with him the last few years is Corbin. The wives of the two are friends, and Corbin said he usually stays in touch that way.

"I give him space," Corbin said. "Unless you reach out to him he is not going to bother you. He has kids now, and he is just kind of doing his thing. I get a general idea of how he's doing. I do want to pick up and get with him again. I guess life just moves on, and you get distracted with a lot of different things. 

"It's not because I don't think about him. I love him as a person and I love what he's about. He's a special kid. I know how he feels about me and I think he knows how I feel about him. I'm protective of him because I care about him so much. He is a good soul."

What Greene has lost because of his desire to stay so hidden is the knowledge of how many people care about him, think and wonder about him, and want to be reassured that he is doing OK.

"I am very anxious to make contact with him," Leggett said. "He's got the world here in his hands at Clemson. People love him and know him on a first-name basis. He's got a home here. I would love for him to come and talk to the team, to just be around."

Schumaker is not surprised that Greene has dropped out of sight but, like all of those who spent time around him, hopes that solitude has finally brought him peace. 

"I wouldn't be surprised if you never found him," Schumaker said. "He could be on an island, who knows? He had some stuff to fix and hopefully being out of the game has helped him do that."

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Friday, March 12, 2010

The Wisdom (or is it Madness??) of Crowds and Baseball



In their recent edition, Baseball America, did a "prospect draft" of this years crop of MLB rookies. On the surface, the premise of the article brought to my mind the book "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations" by James Surowiecki.

Baseball America started the process by culling the prospect list of their staff of reporters-- Will Lingo, John Manuel, Jim Callis and Conor Glassey.

These guys are chatting with MLB GM's, scouting directors, farm directors, scouts and coaches year round. It's safe to say that if they don't know it, it's not worth knowing as far as the future pipeline of major league stars goes. Anyway, they combined each guys list and came up with a consensus of opinion that seems to match the methodology described in the book.

Is this the most effective method? Who knows? That's why they play the games.

Every year brings a surprise or two in terms of an early bloomer or a well-hyped bust, but most years the BA list is as good as it gets.

See if you see a similar connection between BA and the book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book presents numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate its argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology.

The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts).[1]

The book relates to diverse collections of independently-deciding individuals, rather than crowd psychology as traditionally understood. Its central thesis, that a diverse collection of independently-deciding individuals is likely to make certain types of decisions and predictions better than individuals or even experts, draws many parallels with statistical sampling, but there is little overt discussion of statistics in the book.

Its title is an allusion to Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, published in 1841.

We feel more comfortable with the opinion of an expert or guru when many times the collective wisdom will do as good or better a job. It's easy to assume that if we find the "right" person that they will lead us to the "right" answer. Many times, the greater wisdom is in the consensus or collective opinion. And it plays right into the baseball culture of going by "The Book" as well as the corporate culture of CYA.

On the home front, the Giants managed to put the Big Two, Buster Posey (ranked 7th overall) and Madison Bumgarner ranked 14th on the list. Further down, I found Zach Wheeler (49th) and Thomas Neal (96th). Not bad placing four out of 100.

The Rays placed seven in the top 100 including:
#6 OF Desmond Jennings
#18 RHP Jeremy Hellickson
#34 RHP Wade Davis
#35 LHP Matt Moore
#54 SS Reid Brignac
#67 SS Tim Beckham
and # 68 RHP Alex Colome.

The future is bright for the Rays.

The Cubs and Indians placed five players apiece.

The Giants and nine other organizations were up next with four players.

This tells me that the Giants are roughly middle of the pack in terms of absolute number of prospects, although they are top-heavy on the list with Posy and Bumgarner posting where they did. Sadly, the Giants appear ready to block Posey this year and maybe save a year in control unless he wows them like Longoria did the Rays a couple of years back.

The other top players on BA's list included:

The Braves 20-year old OF Jason Heyward, who topped the list. He already looks like a star.

The Nats RHP Stephen Strasburg looks ready to pay dividends on his big bonus paid last year.

Marlins OF Mike Stanton was third and Yankees C Jesus Montera ranked #4.

Rounding out the Top Five was Orioles LHP Brian Matusz.

The law of small numbers and the usual caveats about injuries can quickly turn a bumper crop of four or five players, who could contribute to a team's fortunes, into a low yielding field of one or two contributors.

Which is why this stuff is so interesting, it's very fleeting and no matter how smart you may be, you can look like a colossal screw-up due to issues entirely out of your control. It's partly what draws us to fantasy leagues and March Madness bracket-ology.

You didn't need to look too far into the spring training notes to find Hank Blalock signing a minor league deal with the Rays and Khalil Greene getting released by the Rangers last week to see how quickly the fickle fortunes of baseball can turn. A couple of years ago, you might not have sounded crazy picking Blalock over former teammate Mark Texeira as a prospect. And now one is on Broadway and the other is trying to light up Central Avenue.

The Khalil Greene case is even more crazy. A year or two ago he looked like he was going to be the type of hitter who could contend for the batting title or pound out 20-25 HR's for you and now he can't even stay on the field. It's like the hitter's version of Steve Blass--where he has just lost the ability to compete effectively at this level--albeit for a slightly different reason.

Both cases are confounding and hopefully Khalil pulls out of it--because he seems like a great kid--but it goes to show how powerful intangibles like mental and emotional skills really are in generating and maintaining optimal, elite performance.

Anyway, back to BA. After that, they went further and had eleven different staff members draft a full team from each of the thirty organizations top thirty list of prospects. They added Cuban signees Aroldis Chapman and Noel Arguelles. Sounds like a fun exercise.

Among the Gigantes:

Posey went first in the #7 slot and Bumgarner next at #11 to close the first round.

Zach Wheeler went in the 6th round.
Thomas Neal in the 10th round.
Dan Runzler in the 14th round.
Tommy Joseph in the 14th round.
Roger Kieschnick in the 15th round.
Nick Noonan in the 19th round.
Ehire Adrainza in the 23rd round.
Waldis Joaquin in the 27th round.
Brandon Crawford in the 30th round.

Not a bad haul, but again a surprisingly low eleven Giants out of 330 players overall drafted. A pedestrian, to-be-expected 1/30th of the players picked, or a C grade for the organization. Not quite the basis for the bright future I have been envisioning, but lets hope the BA people are wrong here.

The Red Sox graded out the highest in this exercise with 16 prospects drafted, the Indians second with 15, and then the Rays and Twins with 14. When is somebody going to write a book or gush romantically about the Twins organization or maybe the Rays Andrew Friedman if they manage to secure another W/S berth with the budget they have to work with. There's not much room for error there in either organization.

The top four teams in the grading turn out to be A.L. teams. Not a good sign if you're looking for the N.L. to return to dominance in the All-Star game or World Series competition.

It was good to see Casey Crosby make the list at #34 and Toms River NJ's own Todd Frazier #50.

I would not have minded seeing the Giants draft Frazier a few years back.

I can't wait to get back to baseball. It's 50+ degrees here in Chicago and feeling like mid-spring already. We'll probably pay for this big-time down the road, perhaps by having the Cubs home opener snowed out, but let's get back to the diamonds and PLAY BALL!!!!!

Monday, August 03, 2009

DAVID ORTIZ AND THE "ABILITY TO DRAW WALKS"




Not surprisingly, ESPN's Steve Phillips made a shockingly bad "defense" of David Ortiz and his legacy in the aftermath of the revelation that Ortiz was a positive test in 2003. Phillips made the case that he "observed" Ortiz' development from his days with the Twins into a player who "learned" how to take walks and become a more patient hitter and that this, more than anything else, was responsible for the staggering numbers he produced with the Red Sox.


From ESPN's You Tube Site: Phillips comments are at about the 1:45 mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqfPkw4uzLU

I could just imagine Joe Morgan throwing something at his TV screen as well, because this is one of the themes that emanated from the "Moneyball" revolution that is wholly erroneous on a macro basis and certainly weak/non-existent in the individual example of David Ortiz.

Many who read "Moneyball" came away with the impression that the A's used statistical analysis to identify high-OPS, high-walk ratio hitters in the college ranks, who had a greater probability for success at the major league level. This was an extension of the strategy employed at the major league level, which was to identify these type of players and acquire those who were not valued as highly as their peers--who were using other metrics to acquire/reward hitters.

The A's were able to acquire productive players economically and compete for a time at the major league level. I still maintain that this ability to compete only lasted as long as the starting staff included Zito, Hudson and Mulder but that's another story.

Anyway, the A's model at the player developmental level was highlighted by their drafting of a catcher by the name of Jeremy Brown, who they identified as being one of these high-OPS, high walk ratio guys. He was drafted by the A's higher than virtually anyone would have projected--meaning they overpaid for him--which seemingly defeated the purpose of acquiring talent economically, but I digress.

Many of the other guys they identified while the author followed the process--guys like Nick Swisher and Khalil Greene--subsequently developed into good major league hitters. But most if not all of these players did not follow the model that the A's suggested they would to succeed.

In the same way, David Ortiz did not follow the "model" as Steve Phillips believes he did.

The model suggest that there is some inherent ability to work the count, exhibit patience as a hitter and draw walks, thus becoming a high-OPS, productive hitter that contributes to more team wins. The productivity flows from this perceived ability that can be somehow identified statistically.

What the model ignores is the human elements that cannot be quantified until after the fact, if at all.

The high-OPS, high walk rate flows from the hitter earning RESPECT from the pitcher. Once the pitcher believes that he can be hurt by throwing pitches in certain zones-- which tightens the window that pitchers can throw to--thereby increasing the hitters walk rate. That does not happen until the hitter "hurts" the pitcher and earns respect.

To extrapolate to the extreme, if you had a hitter with fighter pilots 20/10 vision, who could identify balls/strikes with a 99% success ratio compared to Questec--but couldn't hit a lick--how many walks would that hitter draw at any level above Little League? Probably not many.

As hitters advance from one level to the next, whether it's from HS to college, college to low minors, minors to majors--that RESPECT must be earned again.

That is why you will see virtually all of the A's players identified in college as the prototype, model high-OPS, high walk-rate player not statistically demonstrate that "ability" as they enter the minor league system. Why? They have to earn RESPECT of the pitchers all over again. Pitchers who didn't read the hitters stat sheets or press clippings and are trying to earn their own measure of RESPECT.

Respect is earned, and as the Dominicans say, "You can't walk off the island". Respect is earned with the bat. Ted Williams earned his reputation with the bat first and then the high walk rate followed. Respect was earned from pitchers and umpires and the walks followed.

Look at Ortiz ' career stats from Baseball Reference:

DAVID ORTIZ CAREER STATS FROM BASEBALL REFERENCE.COM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

You can clearly see he debuts with the Twins in 1997 as an above average hitter as measured by an OPS of .802 and an OPS+ of 107 (OPS+ of 100 is major league average, it is OPS--On Base Average + Slugging--compared to the league average). His Walk Rate (Walks divided by Plate Appearances) of 4%. FOUR PERCENT!! OK only 51 AB's, but it demonstrates what players do when they advance levels. They try to show their talent.

In 1998, his Walk Rate stabilizes at 12%, which becomes his baseline for the next couple of years. His OPS is .817 and OPS+ is 111.

1999 is a lost year, only 25 Plate Appearances, statistically meaningless.

2000, Walk Rate - 12%. OPS - .810, OPS+ - 101
2001, Walk Rate - 12%, OPS - .799, OPS+ - 106
2002, Walk Rate - 9%, OPS - .839, OPS+ 120

A Bit of a breakout as a hitter, higher OPS with a LOWER walk rate. Hardly the skill or ability that Phillips is articulating. Then the trade to the Red Sox.

2003 OPS rises to .961, OPS+ rises to 144 and yet walk rate only comes back to the original baseline of 12%. Again, hardly what Phillips was articulating. More like Ortiz is finding his wheels as a power hitter, a force--but pitchers still are not convinced.

In 2004 again OPS rises to .983, OPS+ rises to 145 and yet WALK RATE declines to 11%. The OPPOSITE of what Phillips says he observed.

Finally in 2005, OPS cracks 1.001, OPS + rises again to 158 and now pitchers appear to be convinced, elevating Ortiz' walk rate to 14.5%.

Ortiz punished pitchers for 2-3 years before THEY ADJUSTED, by giving Ortiz the RESPECT as a hitter that he EARNED. We're not seeing some inherent ability to draw walks that flows into increased production. We're seeing quite the opposite.

More interesting is the recent history.

In 2006 OPS - 1.049, OPS+ - 161, Walk Rate - 16%
In 2007 OPS - 1.066, OPS+ - 171, Walk Rate - 16%

In 2008 OPS falls to .877, OPS+ to 123 and walk rate follows to 14%.
In 2009 OPS plummets to .720, OPS+ to 82 and walk rate drops to 11%.

What happened? The "ability" to draw walks should be getting better with age, but we see that RESPECT is lost. Scouts whisper, "Ortiz lost bat speed, can't turn on the good FB anymore" and more than whisper, they write this in their advance reports which are read by pitchers and catchers. And the rest is history.

It doesn't even matter WHY Ortiz lost bat speed. Take the PED speculation out of your mind for a moment and it's crystal clear what happens at the cellular level in MLB. And it's been happening like this for generations and will continue to do so. The other issues just muddy the waters a little bit.


We see the same thing with uber-prospects like Colby Rasmus. When they debut in the majors, they have all this advance billing baggage and mega-bonus money to validate.
And that is what they try to do. And pitchers initially exploit that, yes. But the bottom line is this: If this is even a chicken/egg debate, it seems pretty clear which comes first.

The debate remains if plate discipline is a teachable, identifiable skill or an inherent, God-given skill. The old nature vs. nurture argument. Good luck winning one of those.

Are some hitters so "hard-wired" in their approach since their youth days to be either a "hacker" or a "selective" hitter that they cannot be changed after HS-collegiate level?

Does the pressure to perform either to justify money/publicity received or potentially obtained in the future create such "internal noise" that players cannot be changed significantly?

Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between the extremes and includes some measure of all the extrinsic variables. Maybe there are just too many human variables to quantify as efficiently as we would like. Put that in your spreadsheet and smoke it.

Monday, July 06, 2009

WHY IS EVERYONE SO S.A.D.???




“Not only so but we also rejoice in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope.”
-Romans 5:3-4 (NIV)


The wise words above are part of the answer. Across the nation, we have raised a generation (maybe two) without the benefit of a moral compass. "Anything Goes", "Live and let live" and "Whatever" became the answer whenever there was a question about right and wrong.

And yet it seems like we are hearing more and more about athletes being diagnosed with this disorder.

The list includes:
Ricky Williams
Zach Greinke
Khalil Greene
Joey Votto
and Dontrelle Willis

and it's not entirely out of the range of possibility that this definition at least may have been the cause of Rick Ankiel's implosion as a major league pitcher and Chuck Knoblach's throwing difficulty in New York. Perhaps we can go as far back as the Mets Mackey Sasser and Padres Mike Ivie, whose inability to throw the ball back to the pitcher, derailed a catching career that was heralded as the second coming of Johnny Bench. Maybe "Steve Blass disease" was actually S.A.D.


SOCIAL ANXIETY DISORDER DEFINITION FROM WIKIPEDIA:

Social anxiety disorder (DSM-IV 300.23), also known as social anxiety[1] or social phobia[2] is a diagnosis within psychiatry and other mental health professions referring to excessive social anxiety (anxiety in social situations) [2] causing considerable distress and impaired ability to function in at least some areas of daily life. The diagnosis can be of a specific disorder (when only some particular situations are feared) or a generalized disorder. Generalized social anxiety disorder typically involves a persistent, intense, and chronic fear of being judged by others and of potentially being embarrassed or humiliated by one's own actions. These fears can be triggered by perceived or actual scrutiny by others. While the fear of social interaction may be recognized by the person as excessive or unreasonable, considerable difficulty can be encountered overcoming it. Approximately 13.3 percent of the general population may meet criteria for social anxiety disorder at some point in their lifetime, according to the highest survey estimate, with the male to female ratio being 1:1.5.[3]


Discipline in the schools and in the home were thrown by the wayside as parents feared an overreaching and ever watchful government eye when they dared apply discipline and schools just let bad behavior pollute the entire system.

Note: in a recent post we showed poll results indicating discipline is the top concern in school, above bullying and cheating.


Bullying 14%
Cheating 7%
Attendance 10%
Discipline 43%
All of the above 17%
Other 10%


It may be overly simplistic to some to attribute this rise to the "Everyone gets a trophy" mindset that seems to have taken over society in recent years, but it seems like a development that is worth keeping tabs on.

Apparently, 13% suffer from some form of this disorder, whether it's fear of public speaking, debilitating shyness, etc. that inhibits our careers out on Main Street, so it doesn't seem too far fetched to assume the athlete population would also weigh in at some level.

We seemingly can't comprehend how athletes, whose job it is to perform in intense, pressurized situations could suffer from this as mere mortals do. But it may just be that their athletic gifts allow them to cruise to a level where they have to struggle and face that "fear of failure on a high stage" that seems to be the precursor to the downward spiral.

It is interesting to note that Jayson Stark recently penned an article that directly and pointedly accused some organizations of using this disorder as an excuse to manipulate the placing of players on the disabled list in major league baseball.

Maybe he and his colleagues should have been that forthcoming and strident with the "whispers" they heard about PED abuse in the early days. The organizations may have had to face the music and look themselves in the mirror a little sooner.

I guess we may never go back to the good old days when guys just plain old sucked or were "choke artists". Have to have a fancy scientific name for it.

Friday, March 07, 2008

2008 NL West Preview




PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants

This division could have four teams over .500 and one with over 100 losses. It's going to be a dogfight for the 1st to 4th spots virtually all year long. The problem with that type of meat grinding is that only the division winner is likely to make the playoffs versus the other more top heavy divisions.

Arizona Diamondbacks:
Pitching - Rotation of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren looking for a rejuvenated Randy Johnson to make a Big Three. If not, then Doug Davis and Micah Owings are solid starters. Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena as the late inning relief may prove to be a weakness as well.

Lineup - Solid at all positions, added depth with Chris Burke from the Astros. Chris Young's CF low average last year (.238) cause for concern. Stephen Drew SS, Conor Jackson 1B and Justin Upton RF could all break out and add more power to the lineup. Eric Byrnes is solid in left field and the speed threat with 50 SB's. Mark Reynolds 3B and Orlando Hudson 2B are solid. Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero have some pop behind the dish.

Prospects - Not that they need much, but if relief pitching falters, Max Scherzer, RHP could be pressed into service. He showed well in the Arizona Fall League. Brooks Brown, RHP is a sinker baller who could help as well.

Colorado Rockies:
Pitching - Jeff Francis is a budding superstar and Ubaldo Jiminez shined in the playoffs. Aaron Cook is steady. If Jiminez cannot handle a full-season workload, journeymen Kip Wells and Mark Redman provide depth. Bullpen is well stocked with recently signed Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes closing games.

Lineup - Solid everywhere, led by veteran Todd Helton and young superstar Matt Holliday. Troy Tulowitzki is a budding superstar and Brad Hawpe and Garret Atkins are solid. Depth in the infield with Jeff Baker and converted minor league catcher Ian Stewart ready to step in if 2B Jayson Nix falters. Yorvit Tirrealba and prospect Chris Ianetta hold down the catchers spot.

Prospects - Ian Stewart C-2B is a pure hitter with power potential. Chris Ianetta appears to be the catcher of the future. Dexter Fowler CF may have to wait for a spot to open in this outfield. Franklin Morales P may be a year or two away.

Los Angeles Dodgers:
Pitching - Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and a pick-em between Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza and Chad Billingsley for the top three spots in the rotation. Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton lead the bullpen. Scott Proctor is here to provide Joe Torre with pitcher abuse points.

Lineup - Mix of youth and veterans with Russell Martin C, James Loney 1B and Matt Kemp RF providing youth while Jeff Kent 2B, Rafael Furcal SS, Andruw Jones CF, Nomar Garciaparra 3B and Juan Pierre LF provide veteran leadership. Andre Ethier provide outfield depth. They could use a veteran infielder.

Prospects - Clayton Kershaw LHP may be ready, but he's only 20. Andy La Roche is the heir apparent at 3B. James McDonald RHP and Jon Meloan RHP may be a year away.

San Diego Padres:
Pitching - Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Greg Maddux lead the starters. If Mark Prior can find his way back this staff has a chance to be outstanding. If not pick between veterans Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch. Trevor Hoffman closes as well as anyone. Wilfredo Ledezma LHP may get pushed to the bullpen if the Prior comes through.

Lineup - Might not be as formidable as the other three contenders. Adrian Gonzalez 1B, Khalil Greene SS and Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B anchor the infield with newcomer Tadahito Iguchi 2B looking to rebuond from an off year. Brian Giles RF is joined in the outfield by Scott Hairston LF and Jim Edmonds CF from the Cardinals. Tony Clark 1B comes over from Arizona to add infield depth and pop but may be a man without a regular position. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett are steady if unspectacular behind the dish.

Prospects - Chase Headley 3B may need one more year in the minors but will be wort the wait. Mark Antonelli 2B is a hitting machine with some speed and power. Mat Latos RHP is young (19) but may add to the starting rotation soon.

San Francisco Giants:
Pitching - Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have potential to be the best Big Three in the league. It will be wasted this year. Noah Lowry LHP or Kevin Correia RHP may be dangle as trade bait for a bat if young LHP Jonathan Sanchez can provide consistent starting outings. Pat Misch will either be the fifth starter or long reliever. Brian Wilson and Brad Hennessey will share the closer chores with Wilson having the inside track. Tyler Walker provides depth as well.

Lineup - Possibly the worst in baseball. Bengie Molina C may bat cleanup,'nuf said? Dan Ortmeier 1B will be counted on to provide power at the major league level, something he hasn't shown at the minor league level. That's a problem. Ray Durham remains at 2B and Kevin Frandsen replaces future HOF'er Omar Vizquel at SS. Rich Aurilia takes over at 3B due to the Vizquel injury, but word is the Giants are chasing White Sox 3B Joe Crede hard for one of the spare pitchers. Dave Roberts LF and RF Randy Winn are joined by free-agent signee CF Aaron Rowand. This team may have less HR's than wins this year.

Prospects - Angel Villanona 3B is only 17 years old, but is a potential five-tool player. Nick Noonan 2B-SS is in the David Eckstein mold. Nate Schierholz OF may be counted on to start this year. Pitching prospect Madison Bumgardner LHP and Tim Alderson RHP will be the next wave of pitching to join current starters Cain and Lincecum.

Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.