What is Happening with the 2018 Home Runs? | Exploring Baseball Data with R

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2018/05/28/what-is-happening-with-the-2018-home-runs/?

What is Happening with the 2018 Home Runs?

By Jim Albert on May 28, 2018

MLB Report on Home Run Hitting

Last week, Major League Baseball released a report by a scientific committee (including me) that explored the recent increase in home run hitting.    I encourage you to read our report.  One main conclusion was that the 2017 increase in home run hitting was not due to a change in launch angles or exit velocity, but rather a reduction in the drag that results in better carry of the ball.  Given that report, it is interesting to explore what is happening in the 2018 season (through games of May 27).  Are we seeing a similar carry in the balls as we saw in 2017?  I'll perform a brief exploration here.

Home Run Hitting:  2017 and 2018

The first observation is that there is a significant drop in home run hitting this season.   Below I plot the cumulative rate of home runs on balls in play as a function of the date.  Clearly there is a cold-weather effect — the rate of hitting home runs tends to increase through the season — but the 2018 rate is trailing the 2017 rate.  Currently the 2018 rate is under 4.4 % — the 2017 rate at the end of May is about 4.6 %.

Change in Launch Speed and Launch Angle?

Okay, maybe there is a drop in the home run rate due to a change in launch angle or launch velocity.  For each season below, I compute the median launch angle (LA), launch speed (LS) and proportion of batted balls hit in the "red zone" (this is a region of the LA, LS space where most of the home runs are hit).  Interesting, 2018 batters are hitting balls at a higher launch angle, higher launch speed, and a higher rate of balls hit in the red zone.  On the basis of these statistics, I'd expect an increase, not a decrease in the home run rate.




Year LA LS P
2016 10.7 89.7 0.180
2017 11.4 89.2 0.183
2018 12.2 90.2 0.194

Home Run Prediction Based on 2017 and 2016 Model Fits

We know there is a strong relationship between the launch angle, launch speed, and occurrence of home runs.  Given the launch angle and launch speed, I fit a generalized additive model that predicts the probability of a home run.  I fit two models — one to data from the complete 2016 season and a second to data from the complete 2017 season.  Using these models, I can predict the number of home runs hit in the 2018 season (through May 27) using the observed launch angles and launch velocities.  

Here is what I found:

Using 2017 model, I predict there would be 2294 home runs.
Using 2016 model, I predict there would be 2110 home runs.

We've only observed 1759 home runs (through May 27) — this is 500 home runs lower than I would be predict using the 2017 model that predicts home runs on the basis of launch speed and launch angles.  So really the drop in home run hitting that we see in the above graph really is conservative — if we adjust for the actual launch angles and launch speeds, the drop is lower.

Reduced Carry

One way of looking at the 2018 season change is to focus on the probability of a home run given specific values of the launch angle and exit velocity.  Let's focus on the values Launch Angle = 30 degrees, Launch Speed = 100 mpg — these values are in the red zone where there is a good probability of a home run.  Here are the probabilities of hitting a home run using models fit to the 2018, 2017 and 2016 seasons:




2018 2017 2016
0.409 0.568 0.502

Here are the home run probabilities using data from only the first part of the baseball season (through late May)




2018 2017 2016
0.409 0.481 0.420

Note that the 2018 estimated probabilities are significantly lower than the 2017 values, even when you adjust for the early part of the season.  In other words, the balls with a particular launch angle and launch speed are experiencing more drag in 2018, at least relative to 2017.

Summing Up

Home run hitting is fascinating to explore since there are potentially many variables including the hitter, the pitcher, the baseball, the weather, ballpark, etc that affect home run production.  There is clearly a decrease in home run hitting in 2018 and balls hit with specific launch angles and launch speeds are less likely to be home runs.  As I noticed, 2018 hitters are actually hitting with higher launch angles and higher launch speeds, but the balls appear to have more drag.  Of course, the big question is why this is happening, and this motivates further exploration.

Added May 29

It is very possible that this home run drop is due to the colder temperatures in 2018.  

Michel Lichtman tweets:

Through May 12 the average temperature at all MLB stadiums in 2018 was 62.7 degrees F. In 2017, it was 65.8, a difference of 3.1 degrees. Plugging those numbers into Dr. Nathan's trajectory calculator those 3.1 extra degrees in 2017 yields a 1.1 foot extra carry on a 100/30 ball.

The suggestion is that the temperature could explain the drop in 2018 home run production

Sent from my iPhone

Why Every Baseball Player, Regardless of Age, Should Care About Their Launch Angle and Exit Velocity | STACK

Given that "Launch Angle" and "Exit Velocity" are the two biggest buzz words in the industry today, I figured I would get up to speed on this and some of the more advanced metrics listed above.  JK ;)

from fangraphs.com
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/uncovering-dips/

Let’s discuss the specific coefficients for a moment. As has generally been acknowledged (most importantly by Voros himself in introducing DIPS 2.0), strikeouts and home runs serve to drive down BABIP. Why? Well, to start, both are associated with fly ball tendencies, and fly ball pitchers allow less hits on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers may also allow easier to catch batted balls because their pitches are harder to hit (and, so the theory goes, to hit well).

from STACK.com
Why Every Baseball Player, Regardless of Age, Should Care About Their Launch Angle and Exit Velocity | STACK: 

Launch angle.

It's a term that was barely uttered five years ago, yet it's quickly become one every modern baseball player needs to know.

Launch angle refers to the ball's vertical angle of trajectory off the bat. Anything below 0 degrees is an automatic ground ball, and advanced statistics have found ground balls to be one of least productive types of contact a hitter can make at any level. For decades, young ballplayers were told to "swing down on the ball." We know now that's a bunch of a baloney, as such a technique will likely lead to little more than groundouts, double plays and the occasional single that sneaks under an infielder's glove.

In the MLB, where we have access to all batted ball data, there's been a clear trend toward higher launch angles. In 2015, the league average launch angle was 10.1 degrees. That crept up to 10.8 degrees in 2016 and 11.1 degrees in 2017. It's likely no coincidence there were 6,105 total home runs hit last season, smashing the previous league-high of 5,693 from the year 2000.

Many have referred to this trend as the "fly ball revolution," but it might be more accurate to dub it the "ground ball revolt." The best teams are teaching their players to abhor ground balls and the launch angles associated with them. Inside the Los Angeles Dodgers' practice facilities, you'll find a sign that says "No Ground Balls Ever." At the University of Iowa, players take batting practice in front of a wall of nets which span from third base to first base. This "Wall of Launch Angles" helps the players focus on driving the ball over the nets, as opposed to blasting grounders into them.

So if a launch angle under 0 is not ideal, what is? Well, any launch angle under 10 degrees isn't going to have a great shot of being an extra base hit, and any launch angle over 35 degrees is likely to be a sky-high fly ball easily tracked down by an outfielder. A launch angle between 10 and 25 degrees seems to be most fruitful, as it's a meaty trajectory that results in a high percentage of not only hits, but extra base hits. For pro hitters who can smoke the ball, the top end of that range is a bit higher. But launch angle is only half of the equation in this data-driven hitting revolution—the other being exit velocity. That refers to how fast the ball comes off, or exits, the bat. Being able to pair a high exit velocity with the right launch angle on a consistent basis is key to being a productive hitter. The average exit velocity for high school players is about 75 mph, while elite high school players often hover around 90. A player with an optimal or near-optimal average launch angle but a poor average exit velocity isn't going to be a great hitter, nor is one with a great average exit velocity but a poor average launch angle.

"Even just a few years ago, no one talked about launch angle or exit velocity or spin rate of a pitch. Now, even at the youth level, it's going down into the academies. Colleges are starting to ask 'what's a kid's exit velocity or what's his spin rate?' All that data is really quantifiable and it's a great measuring tool for evaluation," says David Mayberry, a Baseball Application Specialist for FlightScope.

FlightScope is the company collecting much of the data players and coaches now use to inform their swings. The technology actually has roots in the defense industry, where it was first used for missile tracking beginning in 1989. Thirty countries still rely on FlightScope for missile tracking data, but the tech has since crossed over into sport.

After making inroads in cricket, golf and tennis, the tech came to baseball and softball about three years ago. It's since been a revelation for many pro and collegiate teams. The unit used in baseball, which is known as the FlightScope Strike, relies on 3D Doppler radar to track the full flight of a projectile. "It's sending out microwave signals, and then with the Doppler effect and the disturbance in the frequencies, we're able to detect the full flight of a projectile—whether it's a missile or a pitched or batted baseball," Mayberry says.

The unit utilizes a built-in camera and Wi-Fi hotspot to easily display data on a tablet such as an iPad or Microsoft Surface. Its flexible mounting allows it to be deployed in about any game or practice situation you can imagine, including indoor batting cages. Once the unit is up and running, it collects data with no need for additional human input. The sheer number of metrics it can collect is astonishing:

At $18,000 a unit, the FlightScope Strike isn't cheap. However, the number of college and pro teams who have invested in the technology are a testament to its value. The New York Yankees own three units solely for the purpose of scouting, and have deployed them in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic in an effort to identify the next international star. The Philadelphia Phillies plan to roll out the units at every level of their organization. Stanford, Illinois, Arkansas and Bucknell are among the collegiate teams looking to gain an edge with FlightScope.

While the highest levels of baseball make use of most (if not all) the metrics collected by FlightScope, it's launch angle and exit velocity that have the most universal appeal and application. Showing ballplayers a 3D representation of their hit trajectory, exit velocity and launch angle on a tablet results in quick comprehension and a vested interest regardless of age.

"Everybody's a visual learner these days, so when they can actually see the shape and trace of their hit, it becomes a part of their approach," Mayberry says. "Even in the youth level, 14-U and into high school, the players—when they see this data, they're visual learners and they're really engaged. The engagement factor is huge when it's on a screen—a lot of players tune out verbal cues or authoritative figures. But when it's on a screen, they're really engaged and taking ownership."

The data gives purpose to practice. While a ball hit off the back of the batting cage used to be lauded as a great piece of hitting, we now know that it's likely to result in a ground ball. Technology like the FlightScope takes the guess work out of it and allows players to see, feel and repeat the type of contact they want to be making.

"Traditionally, if a baseball player was training in a cage, a hard hit ball off the back of the cage was commendable. When it really shouldn't have been. That's a launch angle of 0 degrees—it's coming out straight. That's a ground ball. No matter how strong you are, if you hit if off the back of the cage at 0 degrees, that's a grounder," Mayberry says.

Access to this data can also help better inform a player's sports performance training. If they see their average exit velocity and launch angle are improving over time, they can have confidence the work they're putting in in the weight room is translating to better functional strength, improved hand-eye coordination and harder contact.

"I use this term cause and effect. You can make adjustments and see the real-time effects. If you're working on your ground reaction forces, how much force you're putting into the ground, you can immediately see what effect that has on your average launch angle, exit velocity, batted ball direction. Same thing if you're a pitcher, your velocity and spin rate. Then you can check your biomechanics. If you're doing a certain type of movement, and you're getting better torque from your hip and shoulder separation, then you can see the immediate cause and effect in real time," Mayberry says.

The data can also be a valuable gauge for recovery—if a player is sitting at a significantly lower exit velocity than they're used to, perhaps they need to examine their recent habits. How much sleep have they been getting? What kind of foods have they been eating? Are they overtraining and need to ease up a bit? Feeling sluggish was not something easily quantifiable for baseball players in the past, but that no longer has to be the case.

While this data is still fairly new in the world of baseball, teams have quickly learned that it has tremendous value. Although traditional stats like batting average or extra base hits can be skewed by factors like level of competition, luck, field dimensions, etc., these metrics do not lie. If a kid has an impressive average exit velocity and an efficient average launch angle, college and pro scouts know those skills are likely to translate to the next level. "Everything's evolving as we speak. I was talking to a youth academy located in South Carolina, and they said Clemson and the University of South Carolina are reaching out and asking about a 14-year-old player's exit velocity. So it's becoming a requirement," Mayberry says.

Mayberry believes that even T-ball players aren't too young to be thinking about their average exit velocity and launch angle. Because at the end of the day, those two metrics are what determine how hard and how far you're going to hit the ball. Focusing on those two factors can help a young ballplayer build a powerful, athletic swing. "Ground balls should be getting out of their vocabulary. Maybe they'll hit it too high at first, but then they can zero in and bring (that launch angle) down," Mayberry says. "All of this rolls up to a better understanding for the player. They're taking ownership and they're being more accountable for their own success."

Photo Credit: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

'via Blog this'

Neuroscience Can Project On-Base Percentages Now | FanGraphs Baseball

Once this type of data can be incorporated into scouting and player development, there will be less draft mistakes and better hitters. 

Subject: Neuroscience Can Project On-Base Percentages Now | FanGraphs Baseball

from fangraphs.com

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/neuroscience-can-project-batting-lines-now/

Neuroscience Can Project On-Base Percentages Now

Eno Sarris

I have an early, hazy memory of Benito Santiago explaining to a reporter the approach that had led to his game-winning hit moments earlier. "I see the ball, I hit it hard," said Santiago in his deep accent. From which game, in what year, I can't remember. Also, it isn't really important: it's a line we've heard before. Nevertheless, it contains multitudes.

We know, for example, that major-league hitters have to see well to hit well. Recent research at Duke University has once again made explicit the link between eye sight, motor control, and baseball outcomes. This time, though, they've split out some of the skills involved, and it turns out that Santiago's deceptively simple description involves nuanced levels of neuromotor activity, each predictive of different aspects of a hitter's abilities. Will our developing knowledge about those different skills help us better sort young athletes, or better develop them? That part's to be determined.

A team of researchers spread across Duke ran baseball players from two full professional organizations through a battery of nine tests on Nike Sensory Stations to measure different aspects of a player's sensory motor abilities. After creating something similar to Major League Equivalency lines for each player, the researchers were able to test the effect of each of the scores against real-life baseball outcomes.

"If you have a 23-year-old, completely average outfielder, the model predicts that his on-base percentage in the major leagues would be .292," explains Kyle Burris, one of the researchers on the project. "The model would expect a similar player who scores one standard deviation higher on the perception span task to have an OBP of .300."

The high-level, easy takeaway from their study is that these skills, taken as a whole, are predictive of good plate discipline. There was no link to slugging percentage, though, so we're not quite yet predicting full batting lines from your neuromotor scores.

But if you drill down a bit into these new findings, you'll see that there is a great deal here to get excited about. Here's a profound image that shows how each subsection of the larger skill set was linked to baseball outcomes. Darker colors denote a stronger relationship between the skill and the baseball statistic.

A table of findings reprinted with permission from Kyle Burris, Kelly Vittetoe, Benjamin Ramger, Sunith Suresh, Surya T. Tokdar, Jerome P. Reiter & L. Gregory Appelbaum "Sensorimotor abilities predict on-field performance in professional baseball" in Scientific ReportsTake a look at the row labeled "perception span," in particular, and you find an interesting story. That task was linked to good on-base percentages and strikeout rates, but not necessarily good walk rates.

"It's kind of like a game of Simon," says Burris as he tries to explain the perception-span task, "but for a split second, it gives you shapes that appear in various aspects of your peripheral vision, and you have to determine was there a square there, or a pentagon there, and it flashed at you in a split second and you have to try and remember what the shape was."
When we asked players what they see when the ball is released, a good portion of the responses detailed how little is ultimately visible to the eye. And there's that study of cricket which suggests that cricket players get more from information they gather before the release of the ball than after. This finding fits right in: players who are good at noticing things on the periphery — like the way a forearm might look different on a breaking ball, or the way the body might drag on a changeup — are better at making contact.
Hidden within the other differences between the tasks and their links to outcomes is a similar story: both the ability to suss out quickly the difference between shapes seen both near and far, and also to capture a target quickly were both good for making contact. That makes sense.

But why would hand-eye coordination be better for player's walk rate than his strikeout rate?

Partly, this could be because players have to start their swing before they know if they want to swing — a requirement velocity puts upon them — and hand-eye coordination helps them to better stop that swing if the pitch is a ball.

Partly, this could be a result of the limited capacity for actually testing hand-eye coordination. The particular task linked to that number requires respondents to tap baseballs as they appear on a screen, testing how fast they can do so.
"I'm not sure that it actually goes and tests hand-eye coordination," admitted Burris, who is headed to Cleveland for a summer internship with the Indians. "There is a little bit of hand-eye coordination in that you have to see it and then immediately translate that to a motor response, but I'd say that that was almost response-time-esque."

If you look at the separate reaction-time outcomes, you'll see a similar link to walk rate, so maybe that's the key skill in taking walk. Reacting quicker.
Or there's another way to separate the skills. You could consider the first three tasks — visual clarity, contrast sensitivity, and depth perception — as "hardware." They're linked to outcomes, of course, because there's a decent part of the game that requires good eye sight. But they're the sort of thing with which you're born.

"There will never be a blind ballplayer," said co-author Gregory Appelbaum.
Those other six tasks, though? They represent the software of our neuromotor system. They represent our ability to take the visual information given to us and process it. Software is more malleable, subject to updates. Software can be changed for the better.

"There is evidence that these processes can be improved," agreed Appelbaum. "There have been demonstrations of neuroplasticity in these processes."
Appelbaum pointed to two interesting studies that pointed to the fact that our neuromotor system's software could be trained. A study from 2015 of which he was part showed that "significant learning was observed in tasks with high visuomotor control demands but not in tasks of visual sensitivity," for one.
A 2014 study at the University of California-Riverside found that actual baseball outcomes could be improved by using a "perceptual learning program." In that study, players reported improvements such as being able to see further, and having eyes that felt stronger and didn't tire as quickly.
Appelbaum is ready to find out what these visual training technologies will look like as we go forward. He's helping launch the Duke Vision Sports Center, a clinic and lab where researchers will use sensory stations, immersive reality, and more, in order to pursue this line of thinking.

When it comes to new stats coming out of Statcast, I've personally seen a change in how players assess the numbers. Early distaste has given away to curiosity, as more players — Yonder Alonso and Andrew Heaney, for example, in my own experience — now speak up at the end of interviews to ask me about launch angle, exit velocity, and how they can use that data to train and improve.

So, while the Boston Red Sox have long been using the link between neuromotor skills and baseball outcomes in their minor leagues in an effort to bring "neuroscouting" to their own organization, these new findings offer a different use for neuromotor study. Instead of sorting players, there's major potential to use these activities to develop players and get the most out of them.
There may never be a blind baseball player, sure. But that's just hardware. Let's see how we can make the most out of our favorite player's software.

Sent from my iPhone

Is The ‘Old School’ Method of Teaching Hitting Outdated?

Hi Charles Rachel Garcia Swing Test Experiment Recently, Rachel Garcia, an elite collegiate softball player (National Freshman of the year at UCLA) went through a simple before and after hitting analysis that I took a small part of and thought it might help to answer our question about 'Old School' teaching methods.  Rachel added 11 MPH in Tee Exit Velocity (Tee measures 'Raw' Power - no pitch influences), from 68 MPH to 79 MPH and increased her average Launch Angle from 5.4 degrees to 9.8 degrees in one 30 minute session.  In fact, her average Exit Velocity in her 'after' round was 5 MPH higher than her top speed in the first round.  The two most important metrics in hitting, Exit Velocity and Launch Angle, both increased significantly and immediately.  An elite athlete, seemingly already firing on all cylinders, adding 14% to her Exit Velocity.  How is this possible?   Elite performance and 'swing efficiency' are not the same things and it is possible to hit very well with slight swing inefficiencies.  We tend to look at elite players and just assume the reason they are elite is that their swing movements are perfect.  While she already had a good swing, there were some key mechanical movements that could become more efficient and thus the immediate increase.  ​​​​​​​ Read More Tomorrow look for a year end special on the Hitting Is A Guess - Time Training and all hitting  programs combined.............

GuessWorks, 41303 27th Street West, Palmdale, CA 93551, USA

Unsubscribe | Change Subscriber Options

Giants use analytics to aid Draft picks | MLB.com

At this point, I don't care if they use a dart board, a OUIJA board, whatever!! Get some guys that can play!!


from mlb.com
http://m.giants.mlb.com/news/article/236539750/giants-use-analytics-to-aid-draft-picks/?partnerId=ed-11595236-997944943

Giants use more modern approach in Draft

By Chris Haft / MLB.com | @sfgiantsbeat | June 14th, 2017

SAN FRANCISCO -- John Barr cited spin rates. He mentioned exit velocity. That's right: The scouting director of the San Francisco Giants, an organization widely considered to remain rooted in bygone forms of player evaluation, spoke with casual familiarity about modern metrics.

"Just because I have white hair doesn't mean I'm old-school," Barr jokingly said Wednesday after the MLB Draft concluded.

Complete Draft coverage

San Francisco selected 18 right-handed pitchers, six left-handed pitchers, three catchers, six infielders and seven outfielders during the three-day talent grab.

• Giants top 30 prospects

And the Giants did so while employing every tool available to them -- including metrics.

"It came down to using more and more information, because you have more information that is available to you now, and we did it well," Barr said. "We digested it well. There were a lot of people involved, from the IT department to our scouts. It was definitely an organizational Draft."

The truth is, the Giants have increasingly relied on contemporary methods of player evaluation for years. And with this Draft, they maintained a different reputation: Being willing to take a risk.

San Francisco selected high schoolers, whose futures usually are more volatile than collegians, with its first three picks: outfielder Heliot Ramos, the highest-drafted player out of Puerto Rico (19th overall) since Carlos Correa was taken first overall by Houston in 2012; third baseman Jacob Gonzalez, who's bigger than his father, former All-Star outfielder Luis Gonzalez; and left-hander Seth Corry, Gatorade's Player of the Year in Utah.

The last time the Giants chose high schoolers with their first three picks was 2007, when they took left-hander Madison Bumgarner, right-hander Tim Alderson, outfielder Wendell Fairley and infielder Nick Noonan with their top four selections.

Barr said that drafting prospects "who were young, athletic and projectable was a key for us."

That trio of Ramos, Gonzalez and Corry comprised half of the six high schoolers the Giants drafted. They spent their other 34 selections on college players, including fourth-round pick Garrett Cave and fifth-rounder Jason Bahr, right-handers who the Giants believe can ultimately supplement the Major League starting rotation.

At times, the Giants appeared as if they were trying to live up to their nickname in replenishing their pitching. Cave and Bahr are both listed as 6-foot-4. Other pitchers they drafted in the top 10 rounds included 6-foot-7 Logan Harasta, 6-foot-6 John Gavin and 6-foot-5 Aaron Phillips.

From their 13th choice, 6-foot-4 right-hander Tyler Schimpf, to their last of 40 selections, 6-foot-8 right-hander Liam Jenkins, the Giants drafted 10 pitchers standing 6-foot-4 or taller.

"It just so happened those were the ones that were there," Barr said.

Chris Haft has covered the Giants since 2005, and for MLB.com since 2007. Follow him on Twitter at @sfgiantsbeat and listen to his podcast. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Sent from my iPhone