Which Neighborhoods are dangerous?

So to cut down on the possibility of "steering" you can't be given information on the safety of the neighborhood you are potentially going to choose to live in. Why not? It fits right in with The Chicago Way.

Murder In Chicago: Which Neighborhoods Are Dangerous?

				Murder In Chicago: Which Neighborhoods Are Dangerous? People looking to buy a home in Chicago frequently want to know whether or not a particular neighborhood is "safe" or "dangerous". Unfortunately, there are a whole ...
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This article is from June of 2013.

So, the government doesn't like real estate agents pontificating on this matter precisely because it is so subjective and they don't want real estate agents "steering" home buyers to particular neighborhoods based upon their own prejudices. Steering can also prevent a neighborhood from ever improving by discouraging law abiding citizens from moving into it. So there are fair housing laws that prevent us from making certain kinds of statements about which neighborhoods are dangerous or safe.

However, that doesn't mean that real estate agents have to remain totally silent on the matter. Usually we will recommend that a home buyer check some Web site for crime statistics or hang out in a neighborhood for a while to see if they feel comfortable there. For example, a bunch of loitering adult males in the middle of the work day is usually not a good sign. Idle hands..

By just looking at this map and comparing it to a heat map of median income for Chicago you can plainly see that murder correlates pretty strongly with income. Again, idle hands... Also, isn't it odd that the murders appear to occur along diagonal lines - from northwest to southeast. What's with that? If anyone has any insights I'm all ears.

Getting Real

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Chicago Murders: The Most Dangerous Neighborhoods Posted: 06 Jul 2015 05:20 AM PDT I first looked at Chicago murders a couple of years ago and have been meaning to update it since. That first blog post is actually good reading for all the necessary caveats and nuances that go with any sort of data like this: Murder In Chicago: Which Neighborhoods Are Dangerous. As I explained in that original post it's difficult to definitively declare a particular neighborhood safe or dangerous. But it's still helpful to look at the data to see where the most people are being killed. For this exercise I went back to the city of Chicago's crime data portal and pulled all the homicide records for the 12 month period ending June 30. There were a total of 448 murders during that time period, which is on par with the last time I did this analysis. I then aggregated the data by community area and mapped it on Google Maps. Here is the summary by community area, sorted from highest to lowest. However, you can't possibly read this graph without first clicking on it to expand it. Also, note that if a community area had no murders it's not on the list. Case in point: Lincoln Park. The map below is interactive so you can zoom in or out and also click on the balloons for a bit more information. (Note: if you are reading this via email I don't think you will be seeing an interactive map below. However, you can click on the title of this post in your email and it should take you to the post on the Web where you can see everything.) Also, if you want to work with a larger map you can go to my underlying Chicago murder crime map. Yeah, I know that there are other crime maps out there but they often have a lot of different crimes lumped together, or they are limited to a small area, or they limit you to just a few weeks' data. #ChicagoCrime #ChicagoMurders If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market, get an insider's view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry, or you just think I'm the next Kurt Vonnegut you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

Another Tale of Two Cities?

Sounds like we should have LED Detroit into bankruptcy, not followed it. - CS
	Another Tale of Two Cities? Source: statedatalab.org Forty nine of the 50 states are required to 'balance their budgets,' either via statute or state constitutions.  Debt loads have been rising sharply anyway, as government accounting standards and budget gimmicks have enabled some states to persistently spend more than they take in.  This is particularly true as retirement obligations accumulated off balance sheets, when true accrual accounting would have included that growth in any valid 'balanced budget' calculation. How about cities?  Cities c...

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Forty nine of the 50 states are required to 'balance their budgets,' either via statute or state constitutions.  Debt loads have been rising sharply anyway, as government accounting standards and budget gimmicks have enabled some states to persistently spend more than they take in.  This is particularly true as retirement obligations accumulated off balance sheets, when true accrual accounting would have included that growth in any valid 'balanced budget' calculation.

How about cities? 

Cities can have similar requirements, in their own city charter or from state constitutions.   Both Detroit and Chicago, for example, are in states with laws requiring balanced budgets for cities within the states.  Like the states, however, ambiguity in the language of the law can couple with accounting practices to allow cities to accumulate debt while they spend beyond their incoming revenue.

At State Data Lab, we calculate and report a metric called 'Net Revenue' for all 50 states.  Net Revenue subtracts total reported net expenses from general revenue.  It can inform whether a state is truly 'balancing its budget,' at least as far as reported results.  States reporting net expenses higher than general revenue have negative net revenue in a given year.  In some states, like Illinois, net revenue has been persistently negative despite a state 'balanced budget' requirement.

Net revenue can also be calculated for cities.  The chart above shows how net revenue in Detroit was persistently negative in the five years before its bankruptcy filing.  The chart also shows an even more alarming trend for the city of Chicago.  And those results can understate reality; they rely on the city's financial reports, which do not include accumulating off-balance sheet retirement obligations.

In 2009, when net revenue in Chicago first dropped through the (negative) $1 billion level, then-Mayor Richard M. Daley included the following observations in his letter introducing the annual report for that year:

Although we do see some signs of recovery on the horizon, city government must operate on a balanced budget, and we have instituted strong management initiatives to ensure that we match our responsibilities to available revenues.  This will continue to be our overriding theme: a smaller, more flexible, streamlined city government that lives within its means and can quickly respond to the needs of its citizens.

Way to go, Chicago!! (and Illinois) the numbers don't lie

It's sad but true that what happens in Chicago, tears down the entire state of Illinois as well.  

Chicago is the tail that wags the dog in this state, so what happens in Chicago, bleeds all over Illinois. 

REPORT FROM BLUE AMERICA: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel should be crying about what Democrats have done to his city and Illinois. 

A recent study named Chicago the most corrupt city in the United States, and 340 city officials and 31 aldermen have been convicted of corruption since 1970.

* Despite raising the individual income tax 66% and the corporate tax 46% in 2011, the state is projected to end the current fiscal year with an accumulated deficit of $5.2 billion. Illinois has just stopped paying its bills. Some vendors have gone unpaid for nine months or even longer. 

* Unsurprisingly, Illinois has the worst credit rating of any state. It is in de facto bankrupt.

* New York City has over 8 million people and had 414 homicides this year. Chicago has less than 3 million people and had 500 homicides. 

* Of the 15 largest cities in the United States in 2010, Chicago was the only one that lost population. Its population has dropped to a level not seen since 1910. 

* Chicago has a terrible business climate and it has the nation's highest sales tax. The city's vaunted Loop is the second-largest central business district in the nation, and in the past decade it has lost 18.6% of its private-sector jobs. The entire Chicago region lost 7.1% of its jobs—the worst performance of any of the country's ten largest metro areas.

* City Journal asks "What accounts for Chicago's miserable performance in the 2000s? It is the result of poor leadership and powerful interest groups that benefit from the status quo. Public-union clout is literally written into the state constitution."

The ramifications of this type of political culture results in people taking the only steps that they can take --  they vote with their wallets and their feet and they increasingly walk away.

According to Migration Data from the Tax Foundation http://interactive.taxfoundation.org/migration/ (net migration from 1993 - 2010):

When you compare Illinois to every other state in the union in terms of people either moving into or out of the comparative states, Illinois is losing in the transaction in virtually every example.

Only when compared against Delaware (small # of exchanges), Iowa (virtual dead heat), North Dakota (small # of exchanges) and Ohio does Illinois come out ahead. In many instances, they get absolutely swamped.

You have to wonder about Ohio, but they at least seem to be taking steps to turn things around.

Your Second Amendment Rights....

News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports |

...so easy even a 12-year old can exercise them.


from news9.com Oklahoma's Own:
12-Year-Old Girl Shoots Intruder During Home Invasion - News9.com - Oklahoma City, OK - News, Weather, Video and Sports |:

"BRYAN COUNTY, Oklahoma - A 12-year-old girl took matters into her own hands during a home invasion in southeast Oklahoma.

It happened on Wednesday when the girl was home alone. She told police a stranger rang the doorbell, then went around to the back door and kicked it in. She called her mom, Debra St. Clair, who told her to get the family gun, hide in a closet and call 911.

That was when St. Clair dropped what she was doing and raced home.

"I drove home at a really fast pace to try to get to her, and when I got here the police were already here. And they had the suspect," she said.

During that time, the intruder made his way through the house. St. Clair's daughter told deputies the man came into the room where she was hiding and began to open up the closet door. That was when the 12 year old had to make a life-saving decision.

"And what we understand right now, he was turning the doorknob when she fired through the door," said the Bryan County Undersheriff Ken Golden."

'via Blog this'


H/T to Karl Denninger at market-ticker.org:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=212944

Note the end of the interview in the video; the intruder had been previously arrested for kidnapping another kid.

"Jones was also arrested in 2011 for allegedly abducting a 17 year old girl with a diminished mental capacity."

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how this young lady's day may have ended had her family not been prepared.

That's why Chicago values suck. This girl would have been at the mercy of the Chicago police departments response time. Luckily, she was protected with backup provided by Messrs. Smith and Wesson.

Score another one for the good guys. Be prepared.

It bears repeating....Chicago Values SUCK....This just in!!! NY, not much better

Where are the race-baiters when the time comes to point the finger at their own? Or just take the time to take a long, hard look in the mirror? Great jobs you guys are doing there Herrs Emanuel and Bloomberg. GREAT EFFORT.

Let's do the math, shall we?
--- NY, CHI and Wash DC
--- all strict gun control areas
--- all cesspools of violence
--- all led for years by demonstrably failed political, sociological ideologues
--- and the solution is MORE gun control laws?
--- and not turning away from the demonstrably failed ideology?

Hmmmm........why can't I figure this out?

Don't tell me the problem is with the failure of the "value systems" of some of the folks that have consistently LED (and I use the term loosely) these areas -- where the preponderance of these cesspools are located -- down the wrong path politically (and have for decades)?

No, that can't be it. Could it?

from Godfather Politics:
Did Targeting the 1% by Occupy Wall Street Movement Lead to NY Shootings? - Godfather Politics:

 "Let’s not forget what’s going on in Chicago, the city led by Mayor Rahm Emanuel who served as the White House Chief of Staff to President Obama. It’s now the murder capital of the world. But since the victims and perpetrators don’t fit the liberal, anti-conservative narrative, the liberal media can’t and won’t make an issue of the city’s violence."

'via Blog this'

It should be great theatre to see how Bloomberg spins the recent Empire State Building shooting after this "army that couldn't shoot straight" (NYPD) nearly turned the apprehension of a lone gunman into a mass-killing field. Maybe now he can advocate for less guns in the hands of the NYPD.

from Foxnews.comhttp://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/08/24/multiple-people-shot-near-empire-state-building-in-manhattan-police-say/?test=latestnews?test=latestnews

 NYPD: 9 shooting bystander victims hit by police gunfire

NEW YORK –  All nine bystanders caught in the crossfire of a shooting outside New York City's iconic Empire State Building were wounded by two police officers who had never fired their weapons on duty, authorities confirmed Saturday.

Officer Craig Matthews fired seven times and Officer Robert Sinishtaj fired nine times at Jeffrey Johnson on a busy Friday morning in the highly touristed area after Johnson shot a former co-worker to death and then pointed his pistol at them

WWJD? IDK it seems so hard to figure out, right?

It seems pretty clear what he "would" do, based on what he "did" do. The whole chasing the money changers out of the temple thing. Multiple times, it seems, because like cockroaches they kept coming back.

It actually seems silly to ponder WWJD as a question anymore when we live in a world that ever increasingly seems more inclined to answer the question more along the lines of  "What would Judas do?"

Seems as if Herr Emanuel has an interesting perspective we may all want to model. You've come full circle Rahm-bo. Spinning like a freaking top. Good job, good effort!!! You should be so proud of your choices. There's no hate in that crowd of yours, right?

Here's the kind of results you get from implementing these highly vaunted "Chicago values".

from nbcchicago.com
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/The-Deadliest-Global-City-163874546.html

Among what are considered Alpha world cities, Chicago has the highest murder rate -- higher even than the Third World metropolises of Mexico City and Sao Paolo.

Here’s how we rank in murders per 100,000 among cities we consider our peers, based on a projected murder total of 505 for this year.

Singapore 0.4
Tokyo 0.5
Hong Kong 0.6
Berlin 1.0
Sydney 1.0
London 1.4
Toronto 1.7
Amsterdam 1.8
Paris 4.4
New York 6.0
Los Angeles 7.5
Mexico City 8.0
Moscow 9.6
Sao Paulo 15.6
Chicago 19.4

We could be doing worse: Caracas, Venezuela has a murder rate of 130 per 100,000. But its undeniable that the Windy City is under seige.

WOW!!! We're comforted by the fact that we aren't Caracas, Venezuela. Yet!!! Because Emanuel and Company read from the same play-book as Hugo Chavez. Chavez must just be better at executing the plays.

Yes, WWJD indeed. It's pretty clear in many ways WWJD, we just have a consistent listening and comprehension problem to deal with. Too much "political correctness" shit in our ears and our heads.

It's not too difficult to understand folks.

Chicago Values.....

Chicago values suck. At least those that Rahm-bo seems to embrace. A cesspool of corruption continues it's proud, storied history.

Monty Pelerin's World » Chicago Values:

'via Blog this'


Allen West and Rick Santelli on CNBC:

Allen West On Chick-Fil-A

Here is another demonstration of why West should be the next POTUS. Unfortunately, in the current system / environment, we are left with a party too dumb to even want to include him as VP on the ticket. Maybe he would overshadow the #1. from PJ Media: The PJ Tatler » Allen West Doesn’t Always School CAIR Apologists, But When He Does…:

"Allen West Doesn’t Always School CAIR Apologists, But When He Does…" The cuddly-named CAIR is an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. It’s executive director, Nezar Hamze, tried to trap Rep. Allen West at a recent public meeting. That, as you’ll see in the video, was a mistake. Exit question: Is the Romney campaign sure that a “boring white guy” is really the way to go on the veep pick? h/t MRCTV

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