Baseball America and MLB.com revised prospect lists

Both Baseball America and MLB.com revised their prospect rankings recently and published the results. One thing in particular stands out about the Giants prospect list. It is fluid.

We cried when the G-men drafted Christian Arroyo, but now apparently he is the fair-haired boy, the successor to Duffy and Panik, nay Kelby Tomlinson!!

And now we're crying about the demise, the slide down the list, that is Kyle Crick. Once known as Matt Cain 2.0, of course, now we have an actual Matt Cain 2.0, who actually goes by the name of Matt Cain  and carries with him a 2.0 version of his right elbow. You know, the one he pitches with and deposits $20M annual paychecks with.

 A lot of crying and angst looking at these lists, I will say that. But somebody has to do it.

The first group is the consensus group, the most dangerous group to be in because expectations are elevated and there is theoretically only one place to go, DOWN. In reality, the Panik, Duffy, Susac, Tomlinson glide path is more preferred, there's just only so many rooms at the inn, so to speak.

The Consensus Four:
Tyler Beede, RHP
Christian Arroyo, SS
Adalberto Mejia, LHP
Clayton Blackburn, RHP

Of this group, Blackburn is not that highly regarded by most, he just gets guys out and makes the stat guys take notice and the "jeans sellers" (Moneyball reference) throw up in their mouths.

Mejia screams trade-bait to me. Arroyo and Beede would be keepers, but if Car-go (Rockies reference) is available, I'd package two from this list right now.

The second-tier consensus:
These guys make a lot of lists but have a lot of ??'s attached to them

Kyle Crick, RHP
Steven Okert, LHP
Aramis Garcia, C
Ty Blach, LHP

Crick and Okert both have great stuff they just don't know where it's going. That gets coaches fired. Okert compounds it with an ever-growing medical file. He is left-handed though, so it pays to be patient. Blach is 25, so it's show or go time. He has to show what he has or go somewhere else. He is left-handed though so.....see above.  

The 25'ers:
Twenty-five years old, still playing in the minors, do I have to spell it out? Show time or go time.

Mac Williamson, OF
Chris Stratton, RHP
Derek Law, RHP

Mac Williamson has five-tool talent written all over him and looks great getting off the bus. Which begs the question.....Why is he not in SF? Better find out what he has this year. Same with Jarrett Parker, who's older BTW.

Stratton really hasn't sown much since they drafted him high, Derek Law has probably shown more, but is battling his medical file as well.


The Young'uns:
Everybody loves these guys. The prospect-sphere sure likes 'em young. That even sounded dirty writing it, but it's a known fact.

Phil Bickford, RHP
Lucius Fox, SS
Sam Coonrod, RHP
Chris Shaw, 1B
Jalen Miller, SS
Andrew Suarez, LHP
Mac Marshall, LHP

Some of these guys, like Coonrod, aren't necessarily young, just not seasoned professionals. Coonrod lights up the stats. He may be a tweener as far as starter or reliever goes, but the stuff is pretty compelling at this point. Good mix of pitching and hitting. A couple of these guys could fill out a prospect-laden package for a veteran LF'er. The Giants loaded up the cart last year, this year they are already down the first-rounder for signing Samardzija. A trade empties the cart a little bit, but for the right guy......who knows?

Anything is possible and as always, FLUID.

At this point, as far as the statistical indicators go, the only prospects with more than a small-sample size that I would put my money on would be Blackburn, Coonrod and Derek Law (with a clean bill of health) on the pitching side. Crick, Stratton and maybe Okert have to turn things around quickly.

On the hitting side, I think Williamson will hit given the opportunity and a clean bill of health. Arroyo is getting there, I am anxious to see how he handles AA for an extended amount of AB's. Slater, Cole and Dylan Davis (college bats) need to start advancing and handling AA-AAA pitching in the next year or so, but could still be dark-horses in the Duffy/Tomlinson mold.

It's also a pivotal year for former HS SS Ryder Jones lest he go the route of Rafael Rodriguez and Chuckie Jones, ie: the "whatever became of" route. Stephen Duggar (OF from Clemson) has to prove he is not Gary Brown 2.0, ie: a toolsy OF who doesn't produce up to the potential scouts place on his athletic gifts.

Giants love them some toolsy OF, however their prospect graveyard is littered with many that have an eptitath that begins with "Whatever became of....?" That needs to change soon. We need OF versions of Matt Duffy and Kelby Tomlinsom.

Speaking of which, whatever happened to Daniel Carbonell?

The four lessons of Matt Duffy (or You too can Be a Data Hero)

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!!!! We have a winner.

The First Lesson of Matt Duffy, The Joe Panik Rule....hmmmm both good titles,  but here at The Slav's Baseball Blog, we lovingly refer to it as The K/BB ratio for pitchers. The opposite ratio for hitters would be The BB/K ratio. Both correlate pretty highly for predicting future success and both are, generally speaking, the first screen I look at to filter prospect lists of any kind (there are others).

These metrics are not as widely available for HS players, but for most collegians and certainly for professional players, there is a plethora of data sources where you can find and filter to your hearts content. And isn't that what data analysis is all about?

from McCovey Chronicles:
The four lessons of Matt Duffy, who doesn't make sense - McCovey Chronicles:

The first lesson of Matt Duffy

Pay attention to the minor leaguers who strike out about as much as they walk. Before you look at any other statistic (other than maybe home runs, of course), check the walks. Check the strikeouts. If they're about even (and neither of them are absurdly deflated or inflated), pay attention to that player. You could also call this the Joe Panik Rule, and it applies to any prospect, regardless if they're doing other impressive things.

In 2013, this skinny afterthought was hitting .303/.389/.443 across two levels, including a cool 45 walks to 41 strikeouts in Low-A. This isn't to suggest that he should have been a top prospect then -- it was a performance that just barely got him onto a consensus top-30 list -- but the lesson isn't that every kid will be a star if he can work a count at the same time he's making contact. The lesson is to pay attention to those types.

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P.S. - Case in point. Daniel Carbonnell was just sent back to repeat Hi-A after a wretched stint at AA. Now, he hit over .300 in Hi-A last year in a short stint and started there this year at over .300. The Giants promoted him to AA and the wheels literally came off, a .146 AVG in 214 AB's with a 53:4 K/BB ratio. That would be fantastic for a pitcher, but turn that smile upside down and for a hitter, it's 4:53 or a wretched 7.5% when we're looking for closer to 1:1 or 100%.

See why he got sent back? Hard to generate the other things that scouts and fans salivate over, the Hits, Extra-Base Hits, and Home Runs, from the contact AB's, when you're spending too much time on the wrong side of the non-contact AB side of the equation and on the wrong side of THAT equation to boot, On the non-contact side, you can K or BB, one is good, the other bad. Not rocket science here and for the most part, very binary.

Giants scouting Cuban CF Eddy Julio Martinez

Let's see. All the big budget teams are in the mix, meaning the price gets bid up. Not the Giants usual International M.O. They are more bargain hunters it seems than anything else.

from mlbtraderumors.com
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/international-notes-martinez-fox-kbo.html

The Giants were among the clubs to scout 20-year-old Cuban center fielder Eddy Julio Martinez in the Dominican Republic recently, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (All Twitter links). At this time, the Giants, Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers and Dodgers are all in the mix for Martinez. One scout placed the lofty comp of a young Andruw Jones on Martinez, Sanchez adds, though clearly not every scout will be quite that bullish. Martinez is expected to work out for more clubs this week and is eligible to sign at any time.

A young Andruw Jones, even if you have to wait, may be worth the price.

Wait a second, Andruw Jones was in the league at age 19 and was Rookie of the Year at age 20.

This kid is 20 years old.

Maybe this is one bidding war you might want to win. Baseball America did not have Martinez on their Top 20 Cuban Prospect list posted in April 2015.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-20-prospects-cuba-1-10/  (Subscription required)

Plus, the last bargain, bonus-baby Daniel Carbonnel is struggling in AA.

It seems as if the days of signing a ready-made, immediate impact Cuban bat or arm like Jose Abreu are over, If this guy is an International budget-buster, I say PASS.

How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles

http://m.mlb.com/video/?content_id=36820485&topic_id=6479266
Panik's two-run homer


My guess is Mr. panik will do pretty well for the Giants this year. A HR yesterday, on a pitch it looked like he just slapped at and did not get all of, gives a glimpse of the power that I believe will come from his bat later in his career. Joe is now at 3 HR's this spring, tied for the team lead with Brandon Belt.

I love this observation from McCovey Chronicles about Panik because I think it cuts to the heart of what hitting is all about:

A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.

Note: this is what I think some in the SABR crowd have difficulty quantifying and projecting in hitters, JMO .

BTW: I like the recent surge by Daniel Carbonell lately ( .316 BA ) like Matt Duffy, he is going to make the decision to send him out a lot tougher on Bruce Bochy and the staff.

from McCovey Chronicles:
How will Joe Panik do for the Giants in 2015? - McCovey Chronicles:

The projection systems, as well as analysts/scouts like Keith Law, aren't quite as impressed with Panik. 

 Steamer: .255/.305/.337
 ZiPS: .264/.316/.344
 PECOTA: .257/.307/.333 

These systems don't hate you, your favorite sports team, or America. Probably not. They're emotionless, barely sentient spreadsheets. They suck up the minor league numbers, compare them against players who had similar numbers in the past, and spit out major league projections based on what those other players did. History tells us that Panik probably isn't going to hit for enough average or power to be anything close to an above-average hitter. Not yet. All of those systems suggest that he'll have enough defense and baserunning grit to make up for it, but don't expect a repeat of last year's .305 batting average. 

Those disappointing projections are based on a couple of things: Panik had a .343 batting average on balls in play, which is higher than the typical player (while not obscenely so), and he has never hit for a lot of power, even doubles power, in the minors. 

A lack of power usually means a player who can't turn a superior eye into gaudy walk totals. Major league pitchers generally have the ability to challenge hitters, partially negating the talents of even the most disciplined hitters if there isn't the threat of a double behind it.

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Giants Sending Seven to Arizona Fall League

This is an interesting group for the Giants.

Carbonell is currently in High-A and quickly showing the hit tool he needs to advance at that level. If he performs well here in Arizona it would not be too surprising to see him open next year in AA ball.

from Bleacher Report:
Giants Sending Seven to Arizona Fall League:

The Giants will send seven players to the Arizona Fall League this year, all of them intriguing in their own unique, snowflakey way. The list:

• Clayton Blackburn
• Steven Okert
• Erik Cordier
• Hunter Strickland
• Daniel Carbonell
• Matt Duffy
• Blake Miller

We talked about Cordier, Strickland, and Carbonell over over here while talking about potential September call-ups. I'm not sure how their AFL selections affect their chances of joining the Giants in September, but it hasn't hurt players in the past.

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Matt Duffy needs the work against advanced pitching and can provide the type of versatility that should give him plenty of AB's down there.

Blake Miller, like Duffy is possibly a bigger, stronger utility IF type with a good bat. At 6-3, 195 you'd like to see more power, especially given the K-rate, but .300 hitters don't come around very often. Miller has shown the hit tool in AA and is another collegiate bat so it's nearing put up or shut up time for him as well IMO.

Clayton Blackburn and Hunter Strickland are the highest impact guys among the pitchers. Blackburn needs the work as he will likely not get any September big-league starts. Strickland at least may get some opportunities to assist at the big league level.

Okert and Cordier also show potential to be solid bullpen contributors. Okert shows a bit more polish and Cordier more stuff.

Tyler Beede and Daniel Carbonell in AZL (plus an Angel Pagan sighting) — Giant Potential

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SF Giants No. 2 prospect Tyler Beede | AZL Giants 2014

Beede debuts for Giants in AZL, which is good news. Better news is that a kid named Angel Pagan led off, played CF and went 2-3. H/T to Conner Penfold at the blog Giant Potential for providing the You Tube videos for both prospects. Where these guys fall on future prospect lists will be determined by somewhat limited performances so we take what we can get. Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com has already placed young Beede at #2 on the Giants list which may seem somewhat aggressive at first blush, but theoretically Beede should be a more polished, advanced prospect than Crick. The edge in pure stuff may lie with Crick for the time being but Beede should have more command and control of his.



It's good to have stuff, it's better to harness stuff.



from Giants Potential:

Beede strikes out two in first pro inning — Giant Potential:

Beede attacked hitters with a four-seam fastball that averaged between 92 and 94 miles per hour, topping out at 95, while using a mix of his changeup and curveball, which were both low-to-mid-80s offerings.

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SF Giants Cuban prospect Daniel Carbonell | AZL Giants 2014

from Giants Potential:

https://sfgiantpotential.squarespace.com/daily-prospect-recaps/2014/7/30/july-30-2014

AZL Giants: More to come from this game later, but for now, here's an inside look into the Giants' most intriguing prospect — Cuban center fielder Daniel Carbonell. In two games I've watched, Carbonell clearly shows a hit tool (from the right side only) that could push the 23-year-old quickly through San Francisco's system. His bat speed is quick and has a good amount of power behind it. I didn't get video Tuesday, but he hammered a double over the center fielder's head, one-hopping the fence at the 402-foot mark. His speed is a plus skill, as well, and his arm is rumored to be above-average, too, though I haven't seen it yet. His third at-bat in the below video was a ball smoked at the left-fielder, who had to leap and make a remarkable catch to avoid it getting by him. It would have surely led to a double or triple, likely reaching the wall on one or two bounces. Carbonell went 2-for-7 with a strikeout in a 13-inning contest.

Giants Prospects Review

The prospect list is going through a little bit of a restructuring after the MLB Draft and the Carbonell signing with the first order of business being "where do you slot Carbonell?" OK, he's not Cespedes or Puig or even Jose Abreu but at least the Giants are in the game as far as the recent Cuban exodus of players. Other than Panik, Susac and perhaps Mac Williamson, I'm not sure if we have a better hitting prospect. From a tools standpoint, only WIlliamson comes close. 

The second order of business is saying good-bye to this year's crop of 25 year olds, Ehire Edrianza and Heath Hembree. You know my theory there, at age 25 you become more suspect than prospect. At least we're getting some utility (no pun intended) out of Adrainza. Hembree seems to be the pitching version of Gary Brown, more of a teaser than a pleaser. The Giants have to see what they have in Hembree at the major league level. 

Also leaving the list, but not the organization, are 1B Ricky Oropesa and OF Jarrett Parker, both of whom struggle with contact but otherwise look good in the uniform. OF Shawn Payne shows good speed, but you can't steal 1st base. The other hope from the offensive side is the elder statesman 3B Adam Duvall, who feel of the list last year with 25 year-itis, but proceeded to crush his way through AA-AAA ball. Like my man, Conor Gillaspie, Duvall is blocked by the Panda. 

Among the pitchers, Chris Marlowe, Jorge Bucardo, Stephen Harrold never really caught fire. However, Jose Casilla, in limited work, has shown potential to be a late contributor.  This doesn't hurt BTW. I think the younger Casilla can give the Giants similar type inning and play as important a role as his older brother. The mirror doesn't lie. 

SF Giants brothers Jose and Santiago Casilla side-by-side

 GIANT Potential

http://youtu.be/yJSycOQIl3c

Next year's group of 24 YO's is key. The Giants have to get some mileage out of:

C Andrew Susac

2B Joe Panik 

OF Mac Williamson

RHP Chris Stratton 

RHP Derek Law

Law's recent arm problem complicates things as does Stratton's placement in Hi_A San Jose. He needs to start advancing or that pick starts to look pretty iffy. Two of the three bats need to contribute. 

I saw some analysis crediting the Giants with a good pick in the second round with C Aramis Garcia, but looking up and down the organization, this was a clear need pick. After Susac it's  a long fall before you find another C prospect, perhaps stopping at the surprise late round signee from last year's draft John Riley.

This draft is really uninspiring after seeing Beede almost fold up in Omaha, not even looking like Vanderbilt's ace. If he and Garcia don't come up large, this draft could come up empty.

After the first two, Dylan Davis seemed to wow more guys with his 95+ MPH arm from the hill than the OF, so a toss-up between mound and RF. He did hit well in the Cape Cod League, so FWIW. 

Sam Coonrod the RHP from SIU is a project, albeit a project the Giants have shown some skill at turning into a prospect. Maybe a Jake Dunning type at best? It seems like the jury is still out on 6th rounder Skyler Ewing as far as whether he sticks at 1B or C and same with 8th rounder from Stanford Austin Slater as OF/3B. 6-2, 205 seems to lean toward 3B, ultimately he has to hit his way up regardless of where he plays. 

That's your future Giants fans, should the present be too much for you to handle. 

Carbonell Has 'Blazing Speed', Questions About Bat

So we're not getting the next Yasiel Puig or Yeonis Cespedes? Greeeeeeeeeeeaaaat!!!

So maybe a four-tool guy? Heck that's not so bad, right?

Well, if there's one tool a prospect should NOT be lacking in, it's the bat.

from Baseball America, Ben Badler:

Carbonell Has 'Blazing Speed', Questions About Bat:

According to several scouts, the 6-foot-3, 196-pound Carbonell looks good in a workout, where he can showcase his athleticism and blazing speed, but there are reservations about his hitting. One scout clocked him going from home to first from the right side in 4.0 seconds, which translates to 80 speed on the 20-80 scale. With an arm that scouts have thrown average to plus grades on, the 23-year-old Carbonell has the tools to be a good defensive center fielder. He has 50-55 raw power, but scouts have been hesitant to warm up to his bat. Carbonell has been switch-hitting, with scouts saying he struggles to hit righthanded and that he may have to drop his lefty stroke altogether.

“Things don’t come easily to him, except for running,” said one scout. “He doesn’t handle the bat that well. The swing is very mechanical. There’s not a lot of looseness to that swing.”

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Daniel Carbonell: Giants next five-tool prospect

Daniel Carbonell ~ CF ~ Camagüey Music by Imagine Dragons per

I guess this is the SF Giants next superstar CF. I liked the workout video, although at times it seemed like a Cuban underwear video or some American commercial for cheap cologne.  The beat was good and you could dance to it. Or at least tap your feet to it.

A 6.44 forty doesn't lie. And 6-3, 220 is really going to look good going through airports or getting off the team bus.

A switch-hitter with power? Well, the switch-hitter part I saw, but with a wood-chopper swing against some real meatballs. We'll see how professional pitchers carve him up. If he hits, it looks like he has the rest of the goods. Didn't really see him air out the arm much, but there was more beef than bone there, that much you could see.

The routes to the ball looked better than Pagan recently, not saying much, and those were room service fly balls as well. The INTL dollars count against last years dollars, so that's a plus. The Giants can go after another guy, maybe a near-ready pitcher and maximize the signings.

This makes up somewhat for a rather pedestrian, nondescript 2014 Draft.

from  MLB Trade Rumors: (before the Giants signing, they appeared to fly under the radar)

Daniel Carbonell Weighing Five Offers – MLB Trade Rumors:

By Mark Polishuk [May 19, 2014 at 9:11am CDT] 

Cuban outfielder Daniel Carbonell has received five offers from Major League teams, all of which range from five to seven years in length, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports. 

Carbonell is said to be looking for a four-year deal.  If he doesn’t sign by July 2, Carbonell’s signing bonus will count against his new team’s 2014-15 international signing period pool money.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported over the weekend that the Mariners and Yankees were two of the five finalists for Carbonell, though Chavez doesn’t believe either team has made the 23-year-old a concrete offer. 

The Dodgers also aren’t finalists and the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves are “not among the favorites to sign” Carbonell, though those teams showed interest in him earlier this year.

The only other team linked to Carbonell on the rumor mill is Minnesota, who attended his recent showcase and are “monitoring” him.  1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson tweeted, however, that the Twins don’t seem to be “heavily involved” to the extent of other clubs like the Yankees.

Carbonell is a 6’3″, 220-pound switch-hitter with four years of pro experience in Cuba.  Chavez notes that Carbonell “is known for his speed and power” and is considered by some scouts to be a five-tool talent.

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