The Giants Might Have Gotten Lucky by Missing out on James Shields

I guess if you knew in advance that the market would back up on Shields and you could get him at 4 / $75-$80M you would have waited. But the Giants moved when they did, the problem being that now Shields is in the division, and while I don't think the Padres are better yet than the Giants, they have closed the gap and are now serious contenders to compete for the second wild-card. Which is perhaps about where the Giants are again.

It is odd that Shields calling card -- his reliability, dependability and durability -- came back to haunt him, proving once again that it sucks to get old.

from Bleacher Report:
The Giants Might Have Gotten Lucky by Missing out on James Shields:

This comes up now because the combination of Peavy and Vogelsong adds up to about one James Shields. The Giants probably would have had to pay a little more to get him away from his hometown, but they're going to pay two starting pitchers -- one of whom might not even be in the rotation -- about the same as Shields. They went for quantity, not quality.

'via Blog this'

So the Giants starting pitching staff now is what it is, The Magnificent Seven of Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy, Hudson, Lincecum, Vogelsong and Petit. Not bad. We need some bounce back years, some good health reports and a little luck to compete perhaps, but the top five have pitched great at times in their career and mediocre at other times.

Do the Giants have enough starting pitching?

 To find out, I looked to the past three times the Giants won the title -- 2010, 202 and 2014 and used the somewhat controversial statistic called quality starts. According to Baseball Reference.com, a quality start is one where the starting pitcher pitches six or more innings and allows three runs or fewer. In theory, the starter has given his team a better than average chance of winning the game. The rest is on the offense, the bullpen, etc. Would I prefer the Nolan Ryan stat High Quality Start, which requires seven inning pitched and three earned runs or less? Yes!! But ESPN.com / STAT Inc. don't use that standard so I'm stuck with the other version.

Side note: According to wikipedia.com, the highest quality start percentage for a season was recorded by Greg Maddux, who had 24 of 25 quality starts in 1994. Bob Gibson was 32 for 34 in 1968.

Also, from 1950 to June 2013, the overall leaders by quality start percentage (min 100 starts) includes:

1. Tom Seaver 70.2%
2. Mel Stottlemyre 69.4%
3. Adam Wainwright 68.8%
4. Bob Gibson 68%
5. Josh Johnson 67.7%
6. Roy Oswalt 67%
7. Randy Johnson 66.8%
8. Jered Weaver 66.8%
9. Brandon Webb 66.7%
10. Pedro Martinez 66.7%

A list that identifies four legit Hall of Famers and some other stud pitchers that can be best described as "glue" guys, -- maybe not outstanding, maybe under-appreciated, but hold things together -- can't be all that bad. Plus it leads with Tom Terrific, so....

Anyway, back to the Gigantes......

2010 
Cain had 25/33 quality starts or a 76% quality start percentage
Lincecum 22/33 67%
Zito 19/33 58%
J. Sanchez 14/33 42%
Bumgarner 11/18 61%
Wellmeyer 4/11 36%
J. Martinez 0/1 0%
for a team total of 95 / 162 quality starts or 59% QSP

Bumgarner was nails even back then!!!

2012
Vogelsong 22/31 71%
Cain 21/32 65%
Bumgarner 19/32 59%
Zito 17/32 53%
Lincecum 13/33 40%
Hacker 1/1 100%
Petit 0/1 0%
for a team total of 93 /162 or 57% QSP

A little bit of slippage, but still good enough. You can see just how long Timmy has been scuffling though.

2014
Bumgarner 21/33 64%
Hudson 18/31 58%
Vogelsong 15/32 47%
Lincecum 13/26 50%
Peavy 8/12 67%
Cain 6/15 40%
Petit 5/12 42%
for a team total of 86 / 162 or 53% QSP

Here, you can clearly see a bounce back from Timmy, to bottom of the rotation status. Also clear is how valuable Peavy's contribution was (turned Cain's spot from a disaster to a passable effort) and how much Vogelsong slipped, almost off the roster. Under 50% QSP just won't do it.

It really is amazing that this team made the playoffs with the slippage in overall performance of the starting rotation. It was almost held together by spit and bailing wire.  That is pretty much the makings of a .500 team starting rotation.

So, the questions for 2015 become:

• How much are you getting out of Matt Cain? A return to 60+% QSP would be great. 
• What can you expect from the four older warriors? And I include Lincecum/Vogelsong in there with Peavy and Hudson. Have to run between 55-60% QSP IMO.

In my mind, some combination of Lincecum / Vogelsong and Petit are the fifth starters for the 2015 Giants with battlefield promotions due to any injuries that occur. 

If Cain, Bumgarner, Peavy and Hudson give you near 60% QSP for their 128 starts (32 each) this team will be OK. Then you only need 50% from the Vogie/Timmy/Petit troika. Very doable. 

By comparison, the Dodgers will throw out their own troika of 

Kerhsaw 24/27 89% QSP

Greinke 21/32 65% QSP 

Ryu 19/26 73% QSP

64/85 75% QSP out of the top three!! Incredible. Even if you only get 50% out of the other starts, you're looking at 102-103 Quality Starts. That is Quality starting pitching and will be very tough to beat.

The good news for the good guys is this is an odd numbered year, so expectations will be low. On the other hand, this is your third chance to get the whole defending your title thing right, so whatever.

More good news is if this turns out to be a bridge or transition year, a lot of payroll dollars (maybe $40M?) come off the books and there will be a treasure trove of starters coming on the market, led by David Price.

Sabean should fee like a fat kid, with a fat allowance in a candy store next Hot Stove League. 

Giants Hot-Stove Buzz and Speculation

Let me see if I have this straight, the Giants are:

• "in the picture on James Shields" @ 5 years / $110 million
• "interested in acquiring" Cole Hamels @ $23.5 for next four years + $20 option year 2019 when he'll be 35
• and "haven't talked to, don't plan to" talk to Matt Scherzer

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml

2015 31 Philadelphia Phillies $23,500,000

2016 32 Philadelphia Phillies $23,500,000

2017 33 Philadelphia Phillies $23,500,000

2018 34 Philadelphia Phillies $23,500,000

2019 35 Philadelphia Phillies *$20,000,000

$20M Team Option, $24M Vesting Option, $6M Buyout Vests if he 1) has 400 IP in 2017-18, including 200 IP in 2018, and 2) is not on the disabled list with a shoulder or elbow injury at the end of the 2018 season

Hamels would be the most attractive from a contract versus performance potential comparison with Shields coming in second only because Scherzer is just looking to break the bank. He has Scott Boras as his agent, so go figure. Hamels will likely cost a king's ransom of prospects and seems attracted to San Diego under the "going home" banner. Hamels is from the San Diego area originally and reportedly would not mind ending his career there. So the Padres may have a leg up there and they have both the pieces to make a deal and a GM who is in wheeler-dealer mode right now.

The current signs point to either "Shields or bust" for the Giants with bust looking like the best bet.

from Bleacher Report:
Cole Hamels Trade Rumors: Latest Buzz and Speculation Surrounding Star Pitcher | Bleacher Report:

Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels has been the subject of numerous trade rumors and reports, as teams look to bolster their rotations with the lefty's services. The Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers have all expressed interest in acquiring the ace. 

'via Blog this'

from Bleacher Report:
 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2250529-james-shields-rumors-latest-buzz-and-speculation-surrounding-star-pitcher

The final Shields numbers are expected to be close to the five years and $110 million remaining (if the option is picked up) on the Cole Hamels deal, according to one major league source who was privy to Shields’s demands. The Giants and Red Sox are in the picture, and the Yankees may be another suitor.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE:

Maybe Cuban phenom switch-hitting, SS-3B Yoan Moncado as a decent consolation prize? Giants odds are 13-1 according to this analysis, but the Yankees and Red Sox are in on this kid, among others.

from Bleacher Report:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2280818-ranking-signing-odds-for-cuban-phenom-yoan-moncadas-top-8-suitors/page/7

Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6'1/210 frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet, and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age. 

 Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. Moncada reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. He swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that Moncada didn't face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out his tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:

Hit - 60
Power - 60
Speed - 70
Arm - 60
Field - 50

Short-term Shields works, the back end of his contract is going to suck, not the same with Hamels or Scherzer, but they hurt you down the road in other ways. Moncado the risk is he flops, but that seems like a low-risk and the Giants have to win one of these Cuban lotteries, don't they?

Moncado would move the Giants hot-stove league grade from a B-/C+ level to a solid A-/B+ in a hurry. If you knew what Cain and/or Lincecum were going to give you in the next 2-3 year, life would be so much easier. But life is not like that.

Giants fans are looking for one more present under the tree waiting to see if upper management deems them to have been naughty or nice last year. Given the fan support and the results from what has to be a worn out cash register in the Giants back office, woe to management if there isn't at least one more gift to the masses.

James Shields is a risky investment -- ESPN

Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

This is a particularly good synopsis of the pros / cons of the Giants signing James Shields by ESPN.com's David Schoenfield. So now that I'm leaning more NO than YES, does that mean that somewhere out of the blue the Giants find some coin under the seat cushions in the front office and sign "Big Game" James?

Probably....but stay tuned. Who else signs him? We might be negotiating against ourselves at this point. Put your best offer on the table and fix a deadline to it where you tell Team Shields that afterward you are going in another direction. You're out!!

from ESPN:
James Shields is a risky investment - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN:

Again, this doesn't mean Shields isn't a good pitcher. But any team that's willing to make a big investment in him would have to view him as a difference-maker in 2015 and 2016, a guy it needs to push it over the top. I'm just not sure there's a team that applies to. Depending on the ballpark and the quality of defense behind him, his numbers might drop a little, and his new team might be getting more of a No. 3 starter than a No. 2.

Jim Bowden rates the Giants as the team most likely to sign Shields. That makes some sense, as Matt Cain is a question mark coming back from elbow surgery and Shields would bump Tim Lincecum from the rotation. But wouldn't it make even more sense for the Giants to wait a year and go after one of those young aces, when Lincecum's $18 million comes off the books? Do you want to build a rotation around Madison Bumgarner, a guy coming off an injury and three starters (Shields, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy) in their mid-to-late 30s?

Sure, Shields could help in 2015. But it's not as if the Giants are going to have trouble selling tickets if they don't sign him. They have a little goodwill to play with after winning the World Series. They have a strong team, with or without Shields, and play in a weak division. I'd pass on Shields, go with Lincecum and/or Yusmeiro Petit in the fifth slot, then go all-in next year on Price or Zimmermann. 

'via Blog this'

Giants, Red Sox still in the picture for James Shields | HardballTalk

Given the recent noise from the Giants about being at / near the top of the budget, I don't see how they can be in the running for Shields at 5 years / $110 M.

from HardballTalk:
Giants, Red Sox still in the picture for James Shields | HardballTalk:

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reports that the Giants and Red Sox are still “in the picture” for free agent starter James Shields, adding that the Yankees are another possible suitor. According to Cafardo’s source, Shields is expected to fetch five years and around $110 million.

Shields, who turned 33 on Saturday, finished the 2014 season with a 14-8 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 180/44 K/BB ratio in 227 innings for the Royals. He had mediocre results in the post-season, posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings. “Big Game James” took losses in both starts he made against the Giants in World Series Games 1 and 5.

'via Blog this'

Plus, if you compare Shields and Peavy, you're almost looking at the same guy statistically speaking. Performance-wise, you can probably make a better case for Peavy. If you're saying that because of the perception of Peavy maybe having excess mileage, or higher potential for breaking down going forward making the difference between a $12M AAV in Peavy versus a $22M AAV in Shields, then I'm just saying some agent is going to get more than a huge bro-hug and one might be due a punch in the eyeball.

Drilling deeper, according to the repertoire and velocity comparison, Shields velocity has gone up the last couple of years from 91.31 in 2010 to 92.49 in 2014 (+1.16 MPH) while Peavy has lost a bit of his FB, dropping from 91.06 to 89.88 (-1.18 MPH) during the smae 2010-2014 period.

They always say velocity isn't important, maybe as a stand alone metric, but clearly in this comparison, it may have just made an $86M difference.

from the baseballcube.com
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/reports/compare.asp

Positions:	P-429
Proper Name:	Jacob Edward Peavy
Born:	May 31, 1981 (33.204) in Mobile, Alabama
Height/Weight:	6-1 / 180	Bats/Throws:	Right-Right

Positions:	P-369
Proper Name:	James Anthony Shields
Born:	December 20, 1981 (33.001) in Newhall, California
Height/Weight:	6-3 / 190	Bats/Throws:	Right-Right JAMES SHIELDS

Pitch Repertoire	Fastball (27.07%) -- Changeup (26.74%) -- 2-Seam Fastball (14.16%) -- Cutter (11.76%) -- Curveball(11.45%) -- Slider (8.82%)
Fastball Velocity:	[2014] - 92.49 - [2013] - 92.14 - [2012] - 92.03 - [2011] - 90.9 - [2010] - 91.31 JAKE PEAVY

Pitch Repertoire Fastball (27.35%) -- 2-Seam Fastball (23.65%) --Cutter (17.80%) -- Changeup (10.59%) -- Curveball(10.40%) -- Slider (10.09%) -- Splitter (0.13%) Fastball Velocity: [2014] - 89.88 - [2013] - 90.33 - [2012] - 90.73 - [2011] - 90.17 - [2010] - 91.06

The assist goes to Mrs. The Slav for cropping the stats so they fit the page size without spilling over the edge. 

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

The Peavy deal is looking better and better for the Giants in terms of Average Annual Value (AAV) and number of years committed. If they have that much money to commit to Shields, maybe the money would be better spent on Mikey Mo's replacement in LF. You saved about $15M on the Sandoval-McGehee shuffle at 3B and Morse was in for about $10M last season. You only spent $12M on Peavy, so minimum there should be $13M left. That's if you stay even payroll-wise and that would be kind of a slap in the face to the fans and the franchise considering you are now getting a third chance to defend the title and get it right by winning in consecutive years. That would put all debate about "Giants, dynasty or not?" to rest.  You lost on Tomas in LF, let Morse walk when he didn't get near what he could have / should have and let the Padres load up on guys that you could easily swing over to LF. Running out of options there guys. I'm not sure you can pull a Dexter Fowler out of your hat and satisfy the populace. Your going to have to have something bigger up your sleeve there. Maybe it's time to let go of the James Shields chase and spend for a competent bat. It's not like this was the greatest offensive lineup in the world at times last year, you know?