The final playoff push begins

If you looked at this report to determine who make the playoffs and who advances, you would find some interesting results in the NL. This site looks at and grades each teams hitting, fielding, starting pitching and bullpens. 

StatCorner Team Runs Above Average Report

http://www.statcorner.com/TeamReport.php

• The Nationals and the Giants are the two most well-balanced teams looking to advance, with positive number across the board. 
• The Brewers are also well-balanced across the board, less their bullpen which is scored slightly negative. And they may not even make the playoffs.
• The Pirates are the highest ranked team overall, higher than the Nats, but with a slight negative to their bullpen and a LARGE negative to their fielding.  And they may not even make the playoffs, minus a late push to catch the Cardinals for the division (more likely) or the Giants for the wild-card (slightly less likely). 
• The Dodgers score high overall, but their bullpen is somewhat negative and their fielding is hideous. I don't recall their gloves being that bad, but you have to hit the ball to find out and I was watching the Giants take their hacks. 
• The Cardinals throw a dubious set of gloves out there as well, belying their organizational image as Captain Fundamentals. How they are beating the Pirates, I don't know.  

Looking at the remaining schedule again, the Pirates and Cardinals both play the Reds (not at the same time, that would be weird) but the schedule favors the Cardinals overall in that they finish with the Cubs and Diamondbacks whereas the Pirates clean-up with the Braves and the Brewers.

For the Giants sake, I guess I would rather see the Cardinals win the division rather than the Pirates, who appear to be clicking and have a lot of energy right now. They could be a real buzz-saw if they make the playoffs. 

It surprises me that so many teams are graded weak defensively which, in theory, should be a strength for a playoff club. The Cardinals IF grades and the Pirates and Dodgers OF grades could come back to haunt them in late September and into October. Although as we've seen in the past, in the playoffs -- especially the shorter series -- you ride your strengths and hide your weaknesses. 

I am surprised as well that the Giants offense grades out slightly better than the Nats, not so much that the Nats starters are slightly better versus the Giants bullpen grading out a bit ahead. 

....and down the stretch they come

The most exciting words in sports. In horse racing, it plays itself out in seconds. In baseball we have to wait a little longer, but things are beginning to shape up in both leagues. 

Since the big trade, the A's have actually lost ground to the Angels, but not enough that we are still not looking at a potential A's- Angels battle for a trip to the World Series. The A's are probably the most balance team in baseball, with the 3rd best offense and defense among the contenders. The Nationals would hold that title in the National League with the fifth best offense and the 2nd best defense. The other National League team are either decidedly one-dimensional or just not very good.  The Dodger might be setting up best for the NLCS battle with the Nats at this point, with the Giants needing to build some September momentum and home-field advantage throughout. 

For now it looks like Angels - Tigers and A's Orioles leading to an Angels - A's final, with the Angels advancing to the World Series. 

In the National, it shape sup as Nats - Giants and Dodgers - Cardinals leading to Nats - Dodgers with the Nats advancing to the World Series.  

With an Angels - National World Series, I would think the Angels would be pretty big favorites to win, unless pitching wins in the playoffs. The Angels would seem to have the advantage in terms of experience in general and playoff experience specifically. 

The leaders in terms of offense ( based on RS / G ): 

Tigers 4.68

Angels 4.64

A's 4.62

Orioles 4.36

Nationals 4.29

The offensive laggards are:

Braves 3.78

Cardinals 3.87

Mariners 4.00 

The Braves do not have the pitching to overcome this weak offense, even though they do have great pitching. The Cardinals are the only team still in it with a negative run-differential. If anyone can overcome that negative stat it's the Cardinals and it would have to be with superior pitching, it's just that they've had injuries there that will be tough to for them overcome. 

On the defensive side of the ball ( based on RA/G ):

Mariners 3.39

Nationals 3.51

A's 3.60

Braves 3.62

Dodgers and Giants 3.67

The defensive laggards are:

Tigers 4.32

Brewers 4.26

Pirates 4.07 

If pitching and defense rule in the playoffs, the Mariners and Braves have hope if the can get there. I'm just not sure they get there. Same for the Brew crew and the Pirates. The Giants and Dodgers are soooooo one dimensional but would make for a great NLCS finale. 

The Royals with a 4.09 RS/G and 3.96 RA/G are the most nondescript team still in in the hunt at this point, so I hope they don't make it simply because I would have no explanation as to how they got there. They did thump the Giants recently so I do know they can play and they are probably closest to the Tigers in terms of ability even if they lag them badly in terms of recent success. 

The Mariners would probably be the most scary party crashers with King Felix to carry them and the Cardinals or the Tigers the most likely to fold the tent early, but we shall see how it all plays out. 

Is it time to * the Yankee$ or to praise them?

Now this is Moneyball!!

A match-up between the two largest payroll teams in each league. The Phillies and their $129 million dollar payroll do battle with the Yankees $207 million dollar payroll.

This follows a lead-in where every playoff series except one was decided by the team with the largest payroll winning over the team with the smaller payroll. And the one series where the smaller payroll did win, it was a virtual toss-up (Angels over the Sawks).

So you would have won five of the six playoff series simply by picking the team with the larger payroll. Following the trend, pick the Yankees to win easily over the Phillies.

Fun Moneyball Factoid:
The difference between the Yankees payroll and the Phillies payroll ($78.2 million) is greater than TOTAL payroll of 14 of the 30 franchises in major league baseball.

Is this good for baseball?
Is this a level playing field?
Isn't this rigging of the game in favor of the large media, large population franchises good for TV ratings in the short-term, but bad for the game long-term.

And then to hear my favorite little doorstop of a reporter from New York make the case that Yankee fans are the best fans in the world. For what? For continuing to come through the turnstiles in record numbers in the midst of the recession. Wow, they really have it tough.

Tell your problems to Saints fans who continued to support their team after their city nearly got blown off the map. And who continued to support the team even after losing a significant chunk of their population in the aftermath.

The New York metropolitan area, even after the current financial crisis, still has a population base of over 10 million fans to draw from and only one other team to share that base with.

It must be hard for New York fans when the system hands them the baseball version of the Globetrotters and invites the Washington Generals in on a nightly basis to "compete". And then puff out your chests and act like you accomplished something real or "earned" the title of "best fans in the world". Please!!!

Someone do a public service and please seat Mr. Lupica under the already crumbling structures around the "new" Yankee Stadium. I guess a billion dollars doesn't buy quality stadium construction these days.

Baseball's problem now and in the future is that a city like New Orleans--that supports the NFL and the NBA--would not be able to compete in the current economic and competitive environment of major league baseball. So where to expand? What community leader is willing to subject himself, his city and his wealth to this kind of a rigged game. Go to Vegas, at least you might get a free drink and a dancer.

In 1990, the Kansas City Royals had the top highest payroll in major league baseball. And the Yankees were somewhere in the middle of the pack. The Pirates were a viable, competitive franchise.

In 2000, the Yankees and Red Sox were nudging to the top along with the Braves and the Texas Rangers under owner Tom Hicks. Even then there were other teams within shouting distance of the leaders.

Today, we see a "haves" and "have-nots" division of the teams, with the top two or three teams having the odds of making and advancing deep into the playoffs heavily stacked in their favor. We have the top franchises treating their "business partners" with a "let them eat cake" attitude regarding revenue sharing.

It may be good for New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and maybe Chicago (eventually) but last time I checked, that accounts for eight of the thirty franchises in baseball. I'm not sure how long fans in the other cities will continue coming in record numbers to see AAAA baseball in their towns.

It is time to admit that the increasing disparity in payrolls--that has grown ever greater since the mid 1990s--is an indication that the so-called "luxury tax" has been largely ineffective. It functions as little more than temporary "hush money" to the smaller markets so that the larger market teams can continue to treat them like doormats under the facade of competitive balance.

Even MLB knows this. This is another George Mitchell Report that is gathering dust or being used as a doorstop at the league offices. This report is from 2000!!! And nothing substantive has been done to address the problems identified.

http://www.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20000701&content_id=388144&vkey=pr_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

"Baseball's current economic system has created a caste system in which only high revenue and high payroll clubs have a realistic opportunity to reach the post-season," Mitchell said. "That is not in the best interests of baseball fans, clubs or players."

The economic analysis set out in the report further indicates that the limited revenue sharing and payroll taxes approved as part of the 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have "produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance."

It is past time for these guys to take another more serious run at this issue. For the good of The Game.

GO PHILLIES!!!! I'm sorry but rooting for the Yankees to do well is like rooting for Goldman Sachs. It just doesn't seem right.

Twins - Tigers: Let's get this party started

Maybe a poor choice of words. For the Tigers, maybe it should be "let's get Cabrera sober".

What was this jackass thinking? His team is involved in a down-to-the-wire pennant race with the Twins--and by being involved I mean gagging up a lead the way a cat gags up a fur ball--and this guys is carousing with his buddies on the White Sox until after 2 a.m.

With an alcohol reading three times the legal limit at 6 a.m. it would be amazing if dude sobered up entirely by game time that evening. AYFKM??

If I were a Tigers fan or Jim Leyland, he would sit tonight. I would rather lose without him than win with him at this point. His shenanigans helps explain his late individual late-season slump which has contributed to his teams slump. Put someone else in.

One good thing that may come after tonight is the Twinkees may get the respect and recognition they deserve as the best run franchise at this point.

They CONSISTENTLY get the most out of the least in terms of payroll resources.
They play the game right fundamentally and can play small ball or power ball.
They lose key guys for extended stretches (like Morneau this year) and keep on winning.

Maybe they need some Wall Street financial writer to fall in love with them or their GM and write a book about how they do it in order to get the respect they deserve. But knowing the way this organization operates, they'll probably just win tonight and let the results speak for them.

A very old school approach that works. HOW ABOUT THAT!!!!

What were you looking at??

MUST HAVE LOST MY HEAD THAT DAY

That's what somebody should have asked when I made my 2009 baseball predictions.
OMG they were terrible.

http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2009/04/baseball-predictions-for-2009.html




Let's review:

I had the METS!!@@@##$ winning the East. That's just terrible.
The Cubs winning the Central. The definition of insanity.
The Dodgers winning the West. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
The Phillies were my Wild Card. So 2 out of four is pretty awful.

But it gets worse.
Cubs over Phillies - Dodgers over Mets in the Divisional Series.
Cubs over Dodgers in the League Championships Series.

THAT'S JUST PATHETIC.

How about the AL side, Any vindication there?

Rays-Sox-Yanks, 1-2-3 in the East. Actual results - opposite. Nice call, slick.
Indians winning the Central with the Tigers fourth. Oh, just missed on that one.
Angels winning the West.
Red Sox as the Wild Card.
Again a brutal two for four.

Sox over Angels - Rays over Indians in Divisional Series. Could go oh-fer there.
Rays over Sox in LCS. A definitive whiff.

And finally, Rays over Cubs in the World Series!!! Keep dreaming!!!

I guess this demonstrates two things. If you make your picks with your heart (Mets, Cubs and Rays) instead of your head, you lose. And just when you think you know this game of baseball--it shows you how little you actually know.

What wins in the playoffs? BALANCE.....

As we prepare to enter baseball's second season, the baseball gurus and pundits will deliver their pet theories as to what "wins in the playoffs". Normally it boils down to a single facet of the game like "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins in the playoffs" or some other neat, simple theory as to what wins. And we will self-select examples of teams that fit the mold/theory we create. But is it really that simple? And if it was, wouldn't it be easy to win championships?

From personal observation over the years, I saw too many teams that were somewhat one-dimensional in one area--built around the "defense wins championships" mantra-- that did not win in the playoffs due to the lack of even a modicum of offense. My football Giants did manage to win a couple of Super Bowls around a rock-ribbed defense and a somewhat pedestrian offense. They were also defeated in a Super Bowl by a Ravens team that was superior defensively and the opposite offensively. But these examples seem to be more the exception rather than the rule. I also remember watching many Pat Riley led Knicks teams in basketball that were built around strong defense--so much so that they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean at times--losing to more well-balanced Bulls and Rockets teams.

So what works in baseball?

Does better pitching win in the playoffs? It depends on what metric you look at-- just looking at lower ERA for example--the results are mixed. About 60% of the teams with lower ERA's win in the divisional and league championship series (about 62.5% win) but lose in the World Series (about 62% lose). Yikes, that's not conclusive. A mixed bag at best.

How about better defense? If you use fielding percent as a measurement, look again. Only about 50/50 in the DS and LCS and the roughly the same for the World Series. Inconclusive results at best, a coin flip.

How about the team with the better record? Does dominance in the marathon of the regular season translate into the sprint that is the playoffs? Here the results are a little bit clearer. In the DS and LCS, teams with the better overall record wins about 60% of the time. In the World Series, it's a coin flip. And this makes some sense since, even in this era of inter-league play, there likely isn't enough of a sample of games played to use the overall record as a valid metric for comparison in the World Series.

So what seems to work?

Teams that win the regular season series (establish dominance) win when they meet again in the playoffs. At about a 60% clip. That's significant and it makes sense intuitively. Don't fight the trend.

It dovetails nicely into the next metric. Home field advantage. That still works too. At about a high 50% rate. Which makes sense, the team that has the better overall record earns home-field advantage, has established dominance over the other team during the season. Those built in advantages are hard to turn around in the playoffs.

Having the better closer seems to work. If regular season saves are the metric used, the team with the more dominant closer wins about 70% of the time in the league playoffs and about 57% of the time in the World Series. Which makes sense, the team is playing with the lead late in games and has a rally stopper at the end of the bullpen to shorten games.

So pitching plays more of a role than hitting in a teams ability to MAKE the playoffs. For the most part, spotty pitching probably eliminates teams more so than dominant pitching wins for them. And hitting probably plays a lesser role than any element of the game. If we look at what statistics lead to ADVANCING in the playoffs, we see very few hitting stats rise to the top.

In fact, the hitting metric that most tells what teams perform better in the playoffs is a low strikeout ratio. A lower K% translates to winning about 60% of the time and conversely the pitching staff that has a high K% (power pitching) wins 60% of the time.

For hitters, a higher OBA, higher batting average and a higher runs scored vs. runs allowed (really a team stat) translate to winning in the playoffs about 55% of the time.

More stolen bases (speed) wins about 55% of the time as well. So a team with a more diversified offense, that can manufacture runs when the power bats go silent and keep pressure on the defense, has a better chance of winning than a one-dimensional offense.

For pitchers, allowing fewer hits than your opponents wins about 65% of the time. Number of shutouts vs. your opponents shutouts (dominant pitching) wins about 67% of the time. Keeping the ball in the yard wins about 60% level as well and not allowing runs wins about 55% of the time (seems like a no brainer).

The better fielding team, measured by number of errors, wins about 60% of the time as well, so defense shows up as a statistically significant measurement as well.

So we have pitching, speed, defense...what about hitting? Don't chicks dig the long ball in the playoffs? Well, they may dig the long ball, but they will probably need a boost of Viagra if their favorite team relies on the long ball to win in the playoffs.

Teams that win the HR battle during the season only succeed at about a 40% rate in the playoffs. Slugging Percent--about 40% winning percentage. Batting Average and OBA are about a coin flip. 50/50.

So what's a team to do, what is the formula for success in the playoffs?

Formula for pitchers:
Allow fewer hits than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.
Have your pitchers throw MORE shutouts - Wins 70% of the time.
Have your pitcher keep the ball in the yard - Wins 65% of the time.
Pitch more complete games - Wins 60% of the time.
Have a lower ERA that your opponents - Wins 60% of the time.

Formula for fielders/defense:
Commit fewer errors than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.
Have a higher Defensive Efficiency Rating than your opponent - Wins 60% of the time.

Formula for base runners:
Steal more bases than your opponent - Wins 65% of the time.

Formulas for hitters:
Strikeout fewer times than your opponent - Wins 70% of the time.

So, pitch, play defense, put pressure on the opponents defense, steal bases and hitters--just don't strike out, put ball in play and extend AB's.

The conclusion seems to be that winning in the playoffs doesn't lend itself neatly to reliance on one dimension or one individual metric, but rather on a well-balanced composite of skills that lead to success.

THAT WAS EASY!!!

BASEBALL PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

Another season, another failed attempt at prognostication. Here goes:

In the National League East:
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Braves
5. Nationals

I'm going with the Mets until they prove they can do it. A perverse, contrarian logic yes, but let's face it they can't choke every year....or they would be THE CUBS!!!! That's right I said it. The Phillies will be the wild card. The Marlins will be too young. The Braves too young. The Nationals are just somewhat confused.

In the National League Central:
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Astros
6. Pirates

Cubs rule, then October comes and they see their shadow and crawl back into their cave and hibernate. The Brewers hit too much, pitch too little. LaRussa gets more than expected out of Cards which isn't much. Reds, Astros and Pirates should be in AAA. No, I'm sorry the Pirates should be NCAA Division III.

In the National League West:
1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks
3. Giants
4. Rockies
5. Padres

Dodgers win a weak division, which kills them in the playoffs. Diamondbacks don't have quite enough to hold off the Phillies for the wild-card. Interestingly enough, they have more than enough to hold off the Mets. Tough time reconciling that. The Giants, Rockies and Padres compete in a fierce battle to avoid last place. Padres seem to be the team to beat, but tough call.


In the Playoffs:
Cubs vs. Phillies - CUBS WIN!!!! CUBS WIN!!!!
Dodgers vs. Mets - Dodgers in a landslide. Mets shouldn't even be here.

In the Championship Series:
CUBS vs. Dodgers - CUBS WIN!!!! CUBS WIN!!!!
--------------
In the American League East:
1. Rays
2. Red Sox
3. Yankees
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

Rays are that good. Sox are hanging on to faded glory, but they have the pitching to do it. The Yankees are pathetic, they think they can still but their way in and it is great to see them fail, year after year. Toronto plays in Canada, so who cares really. The Orioles are trying to go the Rays route after years of being the third wheel in the Yankees-Sox spending orgy. And who really wants to be the third wheel in any orgy? It's kind of pathetic.

In the American League Central:
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. White Sox
4. Tigers
5. Royals

Might be the best division top to bottom in baseball. Top three teams get the most out of their roster. The Twins are so fundamentally sound, they are fun to watch. The Tigers need more pitching to compete with the Indians and Sox. The Royals just need a miracle.

In the American League West:
1. Angels
2. A's
3. Mariners
4. Rangers

Angels are best in a weak division which hurts them in the playoffs. A's still get the most out of their rosters, best garbage pickers in baseball. Mariners have Griffey back, not much else. Rangers have nothing.

In the Playoffs:
Angels vs. Red Sox - deja vu, Red Sox win
Rays vs. Indians - Rays win.

In the Championship Game:
Rays vs. Red Sox II - Rays win.
--------------------
World Series - Rays vs. Cubs

Rays WIN!!! Rays WIN!!!

Keep betting against the Cubs winning the Series until proven otherwise.

2008 Playoff and World Series Preview

NL Division Winners - Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks.
NL Wild Card Candidates - Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Rockies, Padres, Dodgers.
Also-Rans - Reds, Astros, Nationals, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates, Giants

Nine of the sixteen teams have more than reasonable expectations of making the playoffs. The rest are clearly also-rans. Giants and Pirates contend for the Number One pick in the draft. Reds will be better, Astros, Nats, Cards and Marlins will not. Phillies and Braves benefit from their divisions have/have-not dispersion. Rocks, Pads and Dodgers almost have to finish first in the West due to their divisions balance. I like the Brewers to break through this year as the wild card.

Mets vs. Brewers and Cubs vs. Diamondbacks in the Divisional Round.
Mets vs. Cubs in the League Championship Series.
Cubs avenge 1969 to advance to the World Series and Chicago is never the same again.
------------------------------------------
AL Division Winners - Red Sox, Tigers, Angels
AL Wild Card Candidates - Indians, Yankees, Mariners
Also-Rans - Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, A's, Twins, Rangers, Orioles, Royals

A little more top-heavy than the National League. The Indians edge the Yankees for the wild-card sending Hank Steinbrenner into his administrations first tizzy and making the universe somehow feel less than right. The Mariners could beat out the Angels if their lineup had a little more juice (hint, hint). Collusion is a real bitch. The Rays will make some nose and bloody the Yankees and Sox noses periodically and then fall off. The pitching help they need is coming though. The Blue Jays show that money can't always buy love or wins, figuring out the exchange rate must tie up franchise resources just enough to keep them from competing, that and the stupid metric system. The rest have to rebuild or reload.

Red Sox vs. Indians and Tigers vs. Angels in the Divisional Round
Red Sox vs Tigers in the League Championship Series
Tigers advance to the World Series
------------------------------------------
Cubs vs. Tigers World Series

With the impetus from nearly a century of pent-up fan frustration to fuel them, the Cubs maul the Tigers in six games to win the World Series and avert the 100 years of futility.

CUBS WIN, CUBS WIN!!!!!

It will then be left to either the Giants (53 years of futility) or the Tampa Rays (10 years) to take the baton and become the first team to go 0 for a century without winning a World Series.

2008 AL West Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers

This is another two horse race (it's the American "League" Way). Angels and Mariners battle it out through the summer with the Angels eventually winning out. The A's and Rangers pretend they are competing and battle it out for the three-four spots.

Los Angeles Angels
Pitching - John Lackey, Kelvin Escobar, Jered Weaver and newcomer John Garland are formidable when healthy. Key words, when healthy. If not Joe Saunders or Ervin Santana have to step up. Nick Adenhart and Nick Green are prospects who could contribute. Frankie Rodriguez $(40 saves) is as good as it gets as a closer. SCott Shields and Justin Speier set up and spot close games.

Lineup - Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis will split the catching duties. Casey Kotchmann and Chone Figgins 3B man the corners. Howie Kendrick 2B and Erick Aybar SS are capable. Brandon Wood 3B-SS is a prospect who could contribute if he's more selective. Garrett Anderson LF, newcomer Torri Hunter CF and Vlad Guerrero RF are the holdovers, with Gary Matthews, Jr. relegated to DH-OF duties.

Prospects - Brandon Wood 3B-SS prodigious power, lots of strikeouts. Nick Adenhart RHP,21 and Jordan Walden RHP,20 are almost ready. Nick Green RHP,23 might be pressed into service so the younger talent can get more seasoning.

Seattle Mariners
Pitching - Oriole newcomer Erik Bedard LHP moves to the top of the staff with Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn. Carlos Silva and Miguel Battista round out the rotation. It's a playoff quality staff from 1-3, mediocre from 3-5. J.J. Putz (40 saves) anchors the pen.

Lineup - Kenji Johjima C holds the spot with prospect Jeff Clement ready to challenge. Richie Sexson 1B and Adrain Beltre 3B anchor the corners. Sexson looking for a bounce back from last year. Yuniesly Betancourt SS (9-67-.289) could be the next great young SS. Jose Lopez and Willie Bloomquist share 2B duties. Raul Ibanez LF Ichiro Suzuki CF and Brad Wilkerson RF man the OF with Brad Wilkerson spot starting. Jose Vidro splits the DH duties with Ibanez.

Prospects - Jeff Clement C,24 lefty power, team leader type. Carlos Triunfel SS,20 may be a year or two away. Wladimir Balentein OF, 23 could crack the lineup soon. The pitching prospects are all young and not ready to contribute. Chris Tillman RHP,20 might be the best for now.

Oakland A's
Pitching - Joe Blanton and Rich Harden are top-notch, if Harden is healthy. Chad Gaudin and Justin Descherrer are unproven. LHP Gio Gonzalez (from White Sox in Nick Swisher deal) may have to step-in. He has top of the rotation potential. Huston Street (16 saves) is the closer. Alan Embree, Joey Devine and Keith Foulke are the closers. Like most teams if Street goes down, they could be in real trouble.

Lineup - Rob Bowen C comes over from San Diego to platoon with Kurt Suzuki. Daric Barton 1B looks ready to take over Eric Chavez 3B (15-46-.240) needs to bounce back. Mark Ellis 2B and Bobby Crosby SS are steady, but unspectacular. Emil Brown LF (from Kansas City) Chris Denorfia and Ryan Sweeney (from White Sox) in CF and Travis Buck RF make up one of the weakest offensive OF's in baseball. Jack Cust and Dan Johnson share the DH spot.

Prospects - Gio Gonzalez LHP (from White Sox) made the Nick Swisher deal work. Carlos Gonzalez OF, 22 should be able to push Brown if LF soon. Greg Smith LHP is crafty, he could see time this year.

Texas Rangers
Pitching - Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla and Jason Jenning (from Houston) should be the top three starters. Brandon McCarthy should be the fourth starter. After that, who knows? C.J. Wilson (12 saves) is the closer. Kazuo Fukumori (17 saves) comes over from Japan. Eddie Guardardo may be running on fumes. Joaquin Benoit showed some promise last year.

Lineup - Jarrod Saltamacchia C needs to hit for higher average. Same for backup Gerald Laird. Ben Broussard 1B comes over from Seattle. Hank Blalock 3B (10-33-.293) needs to hit more. Michael Young SS hits for average (.315) Ian Kinsler 2B (20-61-.263) adds some pop. Frank Catalanotto LF, Josh Hamilton CF and Milton Bradely RF should start. Marlon Byrd will get some time as well. Milton Bradely will DH in spots, along with Jason Botts.

Prospects - Eric Hurley RHP,22 has great stuff, Luis Mendoza 15-4 in AA, could start soon. Chris Davis 3B,21 is a lefty bat with some power, John Mayberry OF,24 has power, son of former Royal John Mayberry. Elvis Andrus SS,19 is a great glove, needs to hit. Taylor Teagarden C,24 coming off of elbow surgery, has some pop.

2008 AL Central Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals

Tigers should rule the division and threaten the 100 Win - 1,000 Run marks. Cleveland will contend and challenge for a wild card slot. White Sox didn't do enough to revamp the lineup although the bullpen is improved. Twins took two steps back with the Santana deal, but in a year or two when the prospects are ready, watch out. The Royals are still in Kansas City.

Detroit Tigers
Pitching - Strong and still fairly deep. Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and a rejuvenated Dontrelle Willis will be hard to beat. Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson are about as good a 4-5 starter combo as any. Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney will keep the closer spot warm for injured Joel Zumaya. The bullpen would normally be this teams Achilles heel, but not with this offense.

Lineup - The arrival of Miguel Cabrera 3B moves Brandon Inge into the C-DH rotation with Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Carlos Guillen at 1B is steady (21-102-.295) Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria are solid defensively up the middle and contribute offensively as well. The outfield combo of Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames LF, Curtis Granderson CF and Magglio Ordonez RF (28-139-.363) is spectacular. The toughest lineup this side of the Red Sox.

Prospects - Most of the good ones are pitchers. Rick Porcello RHP is 19 but could get to Detroit in a hurry. Virgil Vasquez RHP, 25 might be the most major league ready. Kaneland's LHP Casey Crosby will be rehabbing an elbow, he's a couple of years from Detroit. Jordan Tata RHP, 25 may also get a shot at the rotation.

Cleveland Indians
Pitching - C.C. Sabathia, Fauston Carmona, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee are the best 1-5 rotation in the bigs. If they all perform well, they should challenge the Tigers. Joe Borowski (45 saves) is the closer and will be set up by Rafael Betancourt and Reid Santos. Mashide Kobayashi (27 saves in Japan) provides depth.

Lineup - Victor Martinez C (25-114-.301) is an All-Star. Travis Haffner and Ryan Garko combo at 1B-DH. Casey Blake 3B and Jhonny Peralta SS are 20-80.270 guys. Asdrubal Cabrera and Josh Barfield will compete at 2B. Jamey Carroll from Colorado is the back-up along with Andy Marte 3B. Jason Michaels and Dave Delluci split LF, Grady Sizemore is a bona-fide superstar in CF and Franklin Gutierez could really break out in RF. Lineup might be a tad under the Detroit-Boston juggernauts.

Prospects - Jordan Brown 1B-OF and Ben Francisco OF are good but both are blocked. Adam Miller RHP is a power pitcher who needs only to stay healthy. Aaron Laffey LHP showed well in spots in the bigs.

Chicago White Sox
Pitching - Mark Beuhrle, Javier Vasquez and Jose Contreras headline the top of the rotation but 2 of the three are inconsistent. No longer a team strength. John Danks and Gavin Floyd are unproven. Bobby Jenks (40 Saves) has been joined in the bullpen by set-ip men Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink. This now has to be a team strength.

Lineup - A.J. Pierzynski C is backed up by Toby Hall. Paul Konerko and Joe Crede hold down the corners and the World Series tradition. The middle infield has been revamped with Orlando Cabrera SS coming over in the John Garland deal and Danny Richar 2B the front runner to replace Tadahito Iguchi. Watch out for Alexei Ramirez to eventually settle in there though. Juan Uribe could be the odd-man out or dealt. Josh Fields waits at 3B for Crede to get hurt or be dealt. Carlos Quentin and Jerry Owens battle in LF, Nick Swisher will win over South Side fans in CF and Jermaine Dye remains inf RF. Brian Anderson CF is running out of chances to stick, he moves from prospect to suspect.

Prospects - Ryan Sweeney OF is about the only every day prospect even close. Aaron Poreda LHP is a power pitcher looking for a second pitch. Lance Broadway RHP and Kyle McCulloch RHP could contribute this year.

Minnesota Twins
Pitching - Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker at the top. This could be disaster if Liriano is not ready to pitch a full season. Phil Humber (from the Mets in the Santana deal) will challenge Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn for the back of the rotation. Jow Nathan (37 saves) and Juan Rincon are solid in the bullpen.

Lineup - Joe Mauer C needs to bring some power to his .293 average. Justin Morneau !B (31-111-.271) is an MVP candidate. Adam Everett SS brings stability from Houston. Mike Lamb 3B and Brendan Harris 2B are solid, but unspectacular. Michael Cuddyer RF (16-81-.276) is a budding star. Craig Monroe CF is keeping the spot warm for Carlos Gomez (from the Mets in the Santana deal). Delmon Young LF (13-93-.288) brings enormous potential from Tampa Bay. Nick Punto is the utility infielder. Denard Span may be the backup in the outfield.

Prospects - Carlos Gomez OF is the potential five-tool star that made the Santana deal work for the Twins. Anthony Swarzak RHP,22 is a power pitcher who comes right at hitters. Trevor Plouffe SS may be a year or two away.

Kansas City Royals
Pitching - Gil Meche (9-13), Brian Bannister (12-9) Zack Greinke (7-7) and Jorge De La Rosa (8-12) could have the makings of a .500 team's rotation. The drop-off to Brett Tomko and Hiodeki Nomo afterwards is the frightening part. Kyle Davies (from Atlanta) and prospect Luke Hochevar may have to produce this year to avert disaster.
Joakim Soria (17 saves) and Yasuhiko Yabuta (from Japan) anchor the bullpen.

Lineup - John Buck (18-48-.222) has to hit for better average. Miguel Oliva (16-60-237 with Marlins) could take over here. Ryan Shealy 1B anmd Alex Gordon 3B (15-60-.247) need to produce more. Gordon recovered after a horrible start last year as the uber-prospect. Tony Pena SS and Mark Grudzelanik 2B aren't going to carry the team, but Gruds did hit over .300. Jose Guillen LF (23-99-.290) comes over (banished) from Seattle. David DeJesus CF and Mark Teahen RF do nothing for me. Former Ray Joey Gathright CF could provide speed at the top of the order.

Prospects - Luke Hochevar RHP,24 is a potential top of the rotation starter. Mike Moustakas SS, 19 will be fast-tracked. He can rake. Daniel Cortes RHP,20 may have to contribute soon as well.

2008 AL East Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Red Sox and Yankees battle it out throughout the season, with the eventual difference between the two coming down to who can avoid or adjust to injuries to key players, especially Papelbon and Rivera. The Rays shake off the name Devil and the move pays dividends as the perpetual rebuilding with youth finally pays dividends. Joe Maddon becomes a cult figure and an early candidate for manager of the year. The Blue Jays and Orioles try to retool around some questionable contracts and battle for the basement.

Boston Red Sox
Pitching - Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling begin to show wear and tear. Tim Wakefield should be pitching until he's 50 something. Daisuke Matsuzaka is the wild card for this team. If he has a great year, they cruise, if he struggles, either Jon Lester or Clay Bucholz will have to step in and produce, and both are ready. Jonathan Pepelbon, Hideki Okajima and Mike Timlin are as deep and effective a bullpen as any in the league.

Lineup - Jason Varitek holds down the catching slot, Doug Mirabelli becomes a luxury the Sox feel they can't afford until Wakefield lobs 4 or 5 passed balls by his replacement and then he'll be back. Kevin Youkilis 1B and Mike Lowell 3B on the corners are perfect for the Green Monster. Julio Lugo SS struggles at times but Dustin Pedroia 2B became an overnight sensation, with Alex Cora backing up. Sean Casey provides bench strength. David Ortiz seemingly can DH for another ten years. The only question in the outfield is when Jacoby Ellsbury takes over for Coco Crisp in CF. The over/under is Opening Day. J.D. Drew in RF and Manny Ramirez in LF are firmly entrenched. Bobby Kielty provides back-up along with Crisp, until he's dealt.

Prospects - Clay Bucholz RHP and Michael Bowden RHP, a local product from Waubonsie Valley, both appear to be ready to join the starting rotation. Jacoby Ellsbury CF will add speed to the lineup. Justin Masterson RHP could be a Derek Lowe-clone. Jed Lowrie IF is said to remind scouts of Dustin Pedroia.

New York Yankees
Pitching - Strong and becoming more of a balanced mix between veterans and youth. Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina continue to be the top three. Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy battle for the final two spots. Mariano Rivera continues to hold on to the closer spot. Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins will set up and close in spots where Rivera needs a break. Kei Igawa and Jeff Karstens provide depth, while Carl Pavano is still around to provide comic relief.

Lineup - Jorge Posada is still solid, bordering on spectacular as a hitter (20-90-.338) Jason Giambi 1B (14 HR's) and Alex Rodriguez 3B (54 HR's) provide power from the corners, Robinson Cano 2B (.332) and Derek Jeter SS (.322) hit for average, while providing occasional pop. The outfield mix is mainly provided by Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui in LF Melky Cabrera in CF and Bobby Abreu in RF. Shelley Duncan backs up here and for Giambi at 1B. Wilson Betemit is the infield depth. The DH spot is rotated between tghe LF-1B platoon spots.

Prospects - The furture is now for RHP's Phillip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. RHP Ian Kennedy flies under the radar, but can pitch. Dellin Betances RHP (19 years old) is 6-9 and touches 98 MPH. Good combination. OF Austin Jackson (20) is a year or two away, but a potential five-tool talent. OF Jose Tabata (19) can hit.

Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching - This area could finally be turning into a strength. Scott Kazmir, James Shields and former Twins Matt Garza should be a strong top three. Andy Sonnanstine seems to have a leg up on the fourth sport for now. J.P. Howell and Jef Niemann should crowd out talented, but non-productive, Edwin Jackson. The bullpen adds veteran Troy Percival to close, moving Al Reyes to set up and spot closing duties. Veteran Dan Wheeler can set-up.

Lineup - The offense can put up runs. Dioner Navarro C needs to hit a bit more. Shawn Riggins will be the backup. Carlos Pena 1B (46-121-.282) had a monster year. Rookie phenom Evan Longoria may step in at 3B. Akinori Iwamura moves to 2B and Twins import Jason Bartlett will stabilize the SS position. The outfield is loaded with superstar Carl Crawford in LF B.J. Upton in CF and Jonny Gomes in RF. Cliff Floyd will fill in, pinch-hit and DH. Willy Aybar provides depth in the IF with SS prospects Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac.

Prospects - Other than the aforementioned Evan Longoria at 3B, an early favorite for ROY, there's Reid Brignac at SS and the pitching, oh the pitching!!! If LHP's Jacob McGee, #1 Draft Pick David Price and RHP's Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann progress as expected, this club will be well-stocked for many year. All could be top of the rotation starters.

Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching - Roy Halliday, A.J. Burnett and Dustin McGowan are as good as anybody when healthy. After that it's anyone's guess, but it will be a RHP. Blue Jays could use a southpaw. Shaw Marcum and Jess Litsch should round out the starting staff. B.J. Ryan and Jeremy Accardo are strong in the bullpen. Ryan needs to stay healthy.

Lineup - Gregg Zaun is OK behind the dish. Sal Fasano is the backup straight out of central casting. Lyle Overbay 1B and newly acquired Scott Rolen 3B both both need to have stronger years. Rolen battles back from injuries, a common theme north of the border. Aaron Hill 2B and former Cardinal David Eckstein SS patrol the middle of the diamond. Marco Scutaro provides the fans an opportunity to develop creative chants.
Frank Thomas will be the full-time DH. Vernon Wells is a stud in CF. Alex Rios RF may be another one. Reed Johnson in LF may share time with Matt Stairs. EEK!!!

Prospects - Robinson Diaz C can hit, he has to prove he can catch. Travis Snider OF (20) is a year or two away. LHP Brett Cecil is needed this year, but may have to wait.

Baltimore Orioles
Pitching - Daniel Cabrera (9-18) is their best, his record should be the opposite. Jeremy Guthrie is average, but he's number a number two here. Adam Loewen pitched thirty innings last year, pencil him in as the #3 starter. Steve Trachsel may challenge for a starting slot. Are we sensing a theme here? This team stinks. Hayden Penn (16 saves may start) and George Sherrill (3 saves with Seattle) will lead the bullpen, for no particular reason. Ex-Ray Danys Baez (0-6 last year) may have to regian his D-Ray form. That's how bad it is in Baltimore. Reliance on former D-Ray castoffs to produce is a recipe for disaster.

Lineup - Ramon Hernandez is a journeyman catcher. Kevin Millar cowboys up at 1B with Melvin Mora 3B hoping to regain his 2006 form. Brian Roberts is an All-Star at 2B, therefore he has to go. Freddie Bynum backs him up and hopes for the trade. Luis Hernandez takes over for Miguel Tejada at SS. That's a brilliant trade-off. Luke Scott LF comes over from the Astros (18-64-.255) Adam Jones may be the starting CF, if not him, then back-up Tike Redman plays. Your staring center fielder may be named Tike?? Nick Markakis (23-112-.300) is a future star in RF, at which point, he will escape this moribund franchise. I pity the players, the fans, and their families that they are trapped in this baseball hell. The over/under on the fans protesting the Angelos regime is the All-Star break.

Prospects - As Mr. T said in Rocky II, "PAIN". Matt Wieters C (21) can flat out rake, a future all-star catcher. After that, not so much. Could be the most painful franchise to watch in the majors, along with the Giants.

2008 NL East Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

The Mets, stung by last years late season collapse, came back with a vengeance. Johan Santana makes Pedro Martinez a #2 starter and a bonus if he comes back. The Phillies and Braves will nip at their heels all year before falling off late. The Nationals will be in no mans land between the haves and the have-not Marlins.

New York Mets
Pitching - Johan Santana, a healthy Pedro Martinez and John Maine comprise a strong starting staff. Oliver Perez and Orlando Hernandez may push Mike Pelfrey to the pen. Billy Wagner still throwing heat as the closer with Aaron Heilman setting up. Jorge Sosa, Scott Schoenweis and Pedro Feliciano provide depth.

Lineup - Revamped the lineup with addition Brian Schneider C and Ryan Church RF coming over from the Nats. Carlos Delgado 1B, Luis Castillo 2B combine with David Wright 3B and Jose Reyes SS to form the most potent infield in the league. Moises Alou LF and Carlos Beltran CF are prolific when healthy. Former Cub Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez are around when they are not.

Prospects - Are you serious? See Twins report, they emptied the cupboard for Santana. RHP's Brant Rustich amd Kevin Mulvey may contribute this year. Fernando Martinez F may help down the road.

Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching - Strong. Very strong. Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers form the Big Three. Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick are likely the other starters. Brad Lidge comes over from the Astros to close. Tom Gordon moves to setup, ready to close when Lidge blows up.

Lineup - The infield of 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley, SS Jimmy Rollins and 3B Pedro Feliz has three potential MVP candidates and a guy named Pedro. Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste platoon behind the dish. Pat Burrell LF and Shane Victorino CF are oined by RF Geoff Jenkins from the Brewers. Jayson Werth and So Taguci back up.

Prospects - LHP Joe Savery, a two way college player, is learning to pitch full-time.
He's close. Greg Golson OF is a potential five tool player. Andrew Carpenter RHP may contribute this year as well.

Atlanta Braves
Pitching - Tom Glavine joins golfing buddy John Smoltz and Tim Hudson to provide a decent starting staff. Buddy Carlyle, Chuck James and retread LHP Mike Hampton competing for the final two spots. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez will share the closing duties.

Lineup - Brian McCann should be an all-star candidate for the next ten years. Mark Texeira 1B and Chipper Jones 3B man the corners. Yunel Escobar SS hit .326 last year and Kelly Johnson 2B hit .276 with some pop (16 HR's). Underrated infield. Matt Diaz keeps LF warm for prospect Brandon Jones. Mark Kotsay likely does the same for Jorda Schafer. Jeff Francoeur should man RF in Atlanta for another 15 years.

Prospects - This team could get younger and better at the same time with Jordan Schafer CF, Brandon Jones LF and Brent Lillibridge SS joining the holdovers. Jason Heyward RF 18 years old may be the best, but a year or two away. Jair Jurrjens RHP is the spoils of the Renteria deal, could start this year.

Washington Nationals

Pitching - Young, very young. John Patterson, Shawn Hill and Jason Bergmann are the top three. Matt Chico, Tim Redding and Joe Hanrahan will compete for the final slots. Chad Cordero (37 saves) is an elite closer. Jon Rauch will oe as the set up man.

Lineup - Paul LoDuca was brought in from the Mets to catch. Dimitri Young 1B and Ryan Zimmerman 3B provide offense from the corners, although Young's power (13 HR's) has dropped off as his waistline has ballooned. Ronnie Belliard 2B and Cristian Guzman SS are steady if unspectacular. The outfield is crowded with Wily Mo Pena in LF looking to hold off the challenge of the mercurial Elijah Dukes. Lastings Milledge CF brings enormous potential from the Mets. Austin Kearns RF was second to Zimmerman (24-16) in HR's.

Prospects - LHP Ross Detwiler should be in the starting rotation shortly. OF Chris Marrero (19) and Michael Burgess (from Tampa, 19) are a couple of seasons away, but scouts are salivating over Burgess' power potential. John Smoker LHP, 19 is a polished, young pitcher who could move quickly.

Florida Marlins
Pitching - Also very young and talented. Scott Olsen, Sergio Mitre and Andrew Miller LHP from the Tigers headline the starters. Veteran Mark Hendrickson, Rick VanderHurk
and Ricky Nolasco will battle for the final two starters spots. Kevin Gregg (32 saves) will reel in any potential victories that present themselves. Taylor Tankersley is the set up man.

Lineup - Mike Rabelo and Matt Treanor split the catching duties. Mike Jacobs 1B (17 HR .265) and prospect Dallas McPherson 3B man the corners. Dan Uggla 2B (31 HR's .245) and Hanley Ramirez SS (29 HR's .332) shine up the middle. Ramirez is a superstar in the making. In the outfield, Josh Willingham LF (21 HR's) prospect Cameron Maybin CF and Jeremy Hermida RF (18 HR's) start in the outfield. Veterans Luis Gonzalez and Cody Ross will provide bench strength.

Prospects - Cameron Maybin CF from the Tigers is only 20 but he could be ready. Chris Volstad RHP could join the starting rotation shortly. Aaron Thompson LHP and Brett Sinkbell may be able to help this year as well.

2008 NL Central Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

Cubs and the Brew Crew battle it out throughout the summer, with the Cubs prevailing late. You can only be bad for a century or so before things turn your way. Brewers are young and strong but Ben Sheets brittleness and the bullpen catch up to Milwaukee. Dusty Baker makes the Reds organization respectable again. Pirates surprise by poking their heads out of the cellar and the Cardinals surprisingly take up residence there.

Chicago Cubs
Pitching - Surprisingly deep starting rotation. Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill will be joined by former closer Ryan Dempster and either Jason Marquis Sean Marshall or Jon Lieber. One of the latter may be traded for a bat or bench help.
Bobby Howry will close to start the season, but he could be keeping the spot warm for Carlos Marmol. Marmol is electric, a shorter version of Ocatavio Dotel. Kerry Wood will likely be a set up man.

Lineup - Very solid. Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome is a cross between Ichiro and Matsui. Not a bad combo. He will add versatility to an offense headed by boppers Alphonso Soriano LF, Derrek Lee 1B and Aramis Ramirez 3B. Geovany Soto is a decent young bat with some pop behind the plate. Mark Derosa 2B and Ryan Theriot SS are reliable. CF could be a question mark if perennial prospect Felix Pie doesn't settle in. The backups are Sam Fuld and prospect Tyler Colvin from Clemson. Daryle Ward and Matt Murton provide bench help. Ronny Cedeno SS is getting a look in Cf as well.

Prospects - Tyler Colvin CF and Josh Vitters C could be mainstays for years to come. Both are ready to hit at the major league level. Geovany Soto C and Felix Pie CF got a taste last year, but are both still in the prospect category. Donald Veal LHP and Sean Gallagher RHP are the top pitching prospects. Jeff Samardzija RHP-WR from Notre Dame may be ready as well.

Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching - Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan and David Bush will steady the rotation. Yovani Gallardo showed well in a half-season. Prospect Manny Parrs LHP 95 MPH could join the rotation shortly. The bullpen could be a Achilles heel. Eric Gagne was brought in to be the closer. 'Nuf said. Derrick Turnbow will set up. David Riske and the well-traveled Salomon Torres provide depth.

Lineup - Young and strong and long n power led by Prince Fielder 1B, Ryan Braun LF, J.J. Hardy SS, Corey Hart RF and Rickie Weeks 2B all provide double digit HR potential. Bill Hall 3B and Mike Cameron provide veteran leadership. Craig Counsell IF, Gabe Gross OF and Tony Gwynn, Jr. OF provide depth. Jason Kendall and Eric Muncon will platoon at catcher.

Prospects - Manny Parra LHP has top of the rotation potential. Matt LaPorta OF is a power prospect who is being moved from 1B to the OF due t the presence of Prince Fielder.

Cincinnati Reds
Pitching - Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo anchor the top of the rotation. Both have to have good years. The rotation will be filled out by a combination of Matt Belisle, Jeremy Affeldt and prospect Homer Bailey. Francisco Cordero (44 saves last year) will close. David Weathers is the set up man. Bullpen could use more depth.

Lineup - Brandon Phillips 2B (30-94-.288) is an underrated star. Edwin Encarcion 3B and Alex Gonzalez SS are solid. Scott Hatteberg 1B is keeping the spot warm for prospect Joey Votto. In the outfield, Adam Dunn LF and Ken Griffey RF provide the fireworks while rookie Jay Bruce CF may take over in CF over Ryan Freel. David Ross and Javier Valentin split the catching duties.

Prospects - Homer Bailey RHP is a ROY prospect. Jay Bruce CF may start and Joey Votto 1B may only be a year away. Todd Frazier SS from the LLWS is another to watch, maybe not this year.

Houston Astros
Pitching - Roy Oswalt, Woody Williams and Brandon Backe lead the rotation. Wandy Rodriguez should be the fourth starter. Jose Valverde comes in from Arizona (47 saves) to close. Doug Brocail will setup. Not much depth here, prospect Felipe Paulino RHP could step up into the rotation if there are injuries.

Lineup - Carlos Lee LF and Hunter Pence RF ignite the offense. Michael Bourn from the Phillies battles for the CF spot with veteran Darin Erstad who was brought in from the White Sox. The infield has been revamped with Miguel Tejeda SS coming over from Baltimore and Kaz Matsui 2B from the Rockies. They will join holdovers Ty Wiggington 3B and Lance Nerkmann 1B. Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum provide veteran depth. Rookie J.R. Towles will take over the catching duties over veteran Brad Ausmus.

Propsects - J.R. Towles should start at catcher. Felipe Paulino RHP is a power arm who should contribute this year. Brad James RHP could also contribute in the bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching - Ian Snell, Ton Gorzelanny, Zach Duke and veterans Matt Morris and Paul Maholm should be a solid rotation. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte are the early leaders out of the bullpen. Need some depth here. Prospects Brian Bullington and John Van Benschoten will have to step up.

Lineup - Adam LaRoche 1B, Jason Bay LF and Xavier Nady RF provide the pop, along with 370 K's between them. Freddy Sanchez 2B and Jack Wilson SS set the table. Jose Bautista 3B lends come pop. Nyjer Morgan CF could provide some speed to the order. Ronny Paulino and Ryan Doutmit share the catching duties.

Prospects - Nyjer Morgan CF (27 years old is a late bloomer. He may only keep the CF spot warm for super prospect Andrew McCutchen. Steve Pearce 1B-OF has hit at every level.

St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching - Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper and Joel Piniero anchor the top of the rotation. Matt Clement and Anthony Reyes should repleace injured Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter. Jason Isringhausen (32 saves) showing signs of wearing down. Ryan Franklin sets up along with Russ Springer.

Lineup - Albert Pujols 1B would anchor any lineup. Chris Duncan LF and Rick Ankiel CF-RF only needs to reduce K's to be legitimate superstars. Major decision will be made on fve-tool prospect Colby Rasmus in CF, if he's ready, Ankile likely moves to RF. Otherwise, Ryan Ludwick may take RF and push Ankiel to CF. Juan Encarcion could also start. Troy Glaus 3B will have to stay healthy to protect Pujols in the order. Adam Kennedy 2B and Cesar Izturis SS steady the middle of the diamond. Aaron Miles and Scott Spezio (between bouts of steroid-alcohol-road rage) provide depth. Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue should split time behind the dish.

Prospects - Colby Rasmus is a five tooler in CF. He could play this year. Chris Perez RHP is being groomed as a future closer. He needs to polish his electric stuff.

2008 NL West Preview

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants

This division could have four teams over .500 and one with over 100 losses. It's going to be a dogfight for the 1st to 4th spots virtually all year long. The problem with that type of meat grinding is that only the division winner is likely to make the playoffs versus the other more top heavy divisions.

Arizona Diamondbacks:
Pitching - Rotation of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren looking for a rejuvenated Randy Johnson to make a Big Three. If not, then Doug Davis and Micah Owings are solid starters. Brandon Lyon and Tony Pena as the late inning relief may prove to be a weakness as well.

Lineup - Solid at all positions, added depth with Chris Burke from the Astros. Chris Young's CF low average last year (.238) cause for concern. Stephen Drew SS, Conor Jackson 1B and Justin Upton RF could all break out and add more power to the lineup. Eric Byrnes is solid in left field and the speed threat with 50 SB's. Mark Reynolds 3B and Orlando Hudson 2B are solid. Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero have some pop behind the dish.

Prospects - Not that they need much, but if relief pitching falters, Max Scherzer, RHP could be pressed into service. He showed well in the Arizona Fall League. Brooks Brown, RHP is a sinker baller who could help as well.

Colorado Rockies:
Pitching - Jeff Francis is a budding superstar and Ubaldo Jiminez shined in the playoffs. Aaron Cook is steady. If Jiminez cannot handle a full-season workload, journeymen Kip Wells and Mark Redman provide depth. Bullpen is well stocked with recently signed Manny Corpas and Brian Fuentes closing games.

Lineup - Solid everywhere, led by veteran Todd Helton and young superstar Matt Holliday. Troy Tulowitzki is a budding superstar and Brad Hawpe and Garret Atkins are solid. Depth in the infield with Jeff Baker and converted minor league catcher Ian Stewart ready to step in if 2B Jayson Nix falters. Yorvit Tirrealba and prospect Chris Ianetta hold down the catchers spot.

Prospects - Ian Stewart C-2B is a pure hitter with power potential. Chris Ianetta appears to be the catcher of the future. Dexter Fowler CF may have to wait for a spot to open in this outfield. Franklin Morales P may be a year or two away.

Los Angeles Dodgers:
Pitching - Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and a pick-em between Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza and Chad Billingsley for the top three spots in the rotation. Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton lead the bullpen. Scott Proctor is here to provide Joe Torre with pitcher abuse points.

Lineup - Mix of youth and veterans with Russell Martin C, James Loney 1B and Matt Kemp RF providing youth while Jeff Kent 2B, Rafael Furcal SS, Andruw Jones CF, Nomar Garciaparra 3B and Juan Pierre LF provide veteran leadership. Andre Ethier provide outfield depth. They could use a veteran infielder.

Prospects - Clayton Kershaw LHP may be ready, but he's only 20. Andy La Roche is the heir apparent at 3B. James McDonald RHP and Jon Meloan RHP may be a year away.

San Diego Padres:
Pitching - Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Greg Maddux lead the starters. If Mark Prior can find his way back this staff has a chance to be outstanding. If not pick between veterans Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch. Trevor Hoffman closes as well as anyone. Wilfredo Ledezma LHP may get pushed to the bullpen if the Prior comes through.

Lineup - Might not be as formidable as the other three contenders. Adrian Gonzalez 1B, Khalil Greene SS and Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B anchor the infield with newcomer Tadahito Iguchi 2B looking to rebuond from an off year. Brian Giles RF is joined in the outfield by Scott Hairston LF and Jim Edmonds CF from the Cardinals. Tony Clark 1B comes over from Arizona to add infield depth and pop but may be a man without a regular position. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett are steady if unspectacular behind the dish.

Prospects - Chase Headley 3B may need one more year in the minors but will be wort the wait. Mark Antonelli 2B is a hitting machine with some speed and power. Mat Latos RHP is young (19) but may add to the starting rotation soon.

San Francisco Giants:
Pitching - Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have potential to be the best Big Three in the league. It will be wasted this year. Noah Lowry LHP or Kevin Correia RHP may be dangle as trade bait for a bat if young LHP Jonathan Sanchez can provide consistent starting outings. Pat Misch will either be the fifth starter or long reliever. Brian Wilson and Brad Hennessey will share the closer chores with Wilson having the inside track. Tyler Walker provides depth as well.

Lineup - Possibly the worst in baseball. Bengie Molina C may bat cleanup,'nuf said? Dan Ortmeier 1B will be counted on to provide power at the major league level, something he hasn't shown at the minor league level. That's a problem. Ray Durham remains at 2B and Kevin Frandsen replaces future HOF'er Omar Vizquel at SS. Rich Aurilia takes over at 3B due to the Vizquel injury, but word is the Giants are chasing White Sox 3B Joe Crede hard for one of the spare pitchers. Dave Roberts LF and RF Randy Winn are joined by free-agent signee CF Aaron Rowand. This team may have less HR's than wins this year.

Prospects - Angel Villanona 3B is only 17 years old, but is a potential five-tool player. Nick Noonan 2B-SS is in the David Eckstein mold. Nate Schierholz OF may be counted on to start this year. Pitching prospect Madison Bumgardner LHP and Tim Alderson RHP will be the next wave of pitching to join current starters Cain and Lincecum.