Steroids? And the HR King? Say it isnt so Hank!

From the Website www.protrade.com comes this interesting piece. We are often told by pundits that we need to connect the dots of circumstantial evidence in order to convict one Barry Lamar Bonds of steroid use in his assault on Hank Aaron's HR record. This article brings up some valid points using some of the same logic and methodology to circumstantially indict one Henry Aaron. Wow!!!

Interesting to note the use of Tom House quotes, which came and went without much of a furor. Why wasn't there the same level of moral outrage or consternation or ex-post facto indictment of players from the 60's and 70's? We know that recreational drug-use was a major social problem at this time. Why wouldn't we believe this extended to baseball? And why do we feel it was limited to recreational, non-performance enhancing drugs? Oh sure, these guys were doing cocaine and amphetamines, but steroids, Nah!! Players were well-paid and had an interest to protect back then as well, didn't they?

We know that the Hall of Fame is slowly being littered with the busts of those whose recreational use of cocaine during their careers stained the game and provided a less than sterlng example to our nation's youth. Where was the "integrity of the game" litmus test when these guys passed muster? Oh, I guess we can pick and choose which law-breakers we want in and which we choose to exclude. Isn't that special?

Maybe Mark McGwire might have been better served if that reporter found some lines of cocaine on a mirror instead of a bottle of andro, right? Shameful, disgustingly shameful.

It is ironic that Tom House is the player who caught Hank Aaron's 715th home-run.
The evidence forms a neat little circle. Also, effective use of Davey Johnson's unusual, Brady Anderson-esque home-run production. What happened there, chief?

I have graphs that clearly show that when one looks at home-run production, relative to the the production of the rest of the league (to adjust for different eras and conditions), the line showing production by age of Mr. Bonds very closely matches that of Mr. Aaron in terms of late stage of career productivity.

In other words, the rising tide of factors (like expansion diluted pitching, smaller stadiums, tighter baseballs, etc.) that lead to increases HR production will be reflected across the entire population by examining the change in the mean. Hence, the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats". Comparing the individual's production relative to the mean would show unusual spikes in production that might be a cause for concern. You have to do both or you get an obscured visual image. To look at one to the exclusion of the other is like trying to hit with one eye closed. You might be able to do it, but it wouldn't look good nor would it be as effective as trying to do it with both eyes open.

Aaron's and Bonds' path of productivity as shown in these graphs, are not all that unusual for superstars and clearly not any more unusual than that of Davey Johnson's and Brady Anderson's among others. A one year spike is clearly more questionable.

You also have to remember that not too many power hitters play beyond age forty. Mays, Williams, Aaron, Bonds, etc. are exceptions to the rule. Many HR hitters like McGwire and Ruth are not playing at age 40 or more, so we are looking at a relatively low sample size which means we really don't know what normal is. Especially for a group (superstars) who by definition are not normal. That's important to remember also. Anyone who says they know what's normal and what's not regarding this sub-group is not being totally truthful or pushing an agenda or worse.

Bonds is usually indicted, tried and convicted by many on the basis of his late career jump in productivity, however when you compare his productivity jump vis-a-vis that of the rest of the league (his peers), his gains are not to be unexpected from a statistical standpoint.

One would and should expect that the productivity of the elite stars (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire) would jump a little higher then that of the "Average" player.

In fact if you compare Bonds' career HR productivity relative to the league average vs. the same statistical comparison of Aaron's career year-to-year, for each chronological year of age Aaron vs. Bonds, they run virtually neck and neck from the beginning of their career until at least age 40.

I will post the graph as soon as I master the technology.


http://www.protrade.com/content/DisplayArticle.html?sp=S8687c664-c2d1-11db-9291-83f05e1a00a7

Steriods. And the HR king. Say it isnt so Hank!
Smart 3 Not Smart 0 Comments 2 | Feb 22 2007 04:05 PM PST By BayAreaBaller
Topics: barry bonds hank aaron bud selig mlb jose canseco steroid steroids baseball home run king

STEROIDS GROUND ZERO: 1973 ATLANTA BRAVES
(Or what you will NOT read in Game of Shadows)

One of the more distressing fabrications which has emerged from the BALCO case has been the erroneous contention that the so-called 'Steroids Era' began in 1991 with Jose Conseco as its architect.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The San Francisco Chronicle, in a May 3rd 2005 article quoted former Major League pitcher Tom House of the Atlanta Braves as saying that steroids were rampant in the game in the late '60s and throughout the '70s.

House, perhaps best known for catching Hank Aaron's 715th home run ball in 1974 in the Atlanta Braves bullpen, said he and several teammates used amphetamines, human growth hormone and 'whatever steroid' they could find in order to keep up with the competition.

"I pretty much popped everything cold turkey', House said. "We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses. That was the '60s when nobody knew. The good thing is, we know now. There's a lot more research and understanding."

House, 58, estimated that six or seven pitchers per team were at least experimenting with steroids or human growth hormone. He said players talked about losing to opponents using more effective drugs,

"We didn't get beat, we got out-milligrammed", he said. "And when you found out what they were taking, you started taking them".


According to Rep. Henry A. Waxman in his March 17,2005 opening statement before the House Government Reform Committee:

"Congress first investigated drugs and professional sports, including steroids over 30 years ago. I think perhaps the only two people in the room who will remember this are me and Commissioner Selig, because I believe he became owner in 1970".

In 1973, the year I first ran for Congress, the House Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce concluded a year-long investigation that found--and I quote--"drug use exists...in all sports and levels of competition...In some instances, the danger of improper drug use--primarily amphetamines and anabolic steroids--can only be described as alarming".

Bowie Kuhn, and the powers that be at the time, quietly squashed the entire tawdry episode and with good reason: it would cast suspicions on an African-American slugger who was challenging one of baseball's most cherished records: The career record for home runs.

Compare Hank Aaron's stats at the beginning of his career and then notice how his HR% began to increase beginning when Hammerin' Hank was 37 years old.

HR% is defined as being the number of HRs per 100 ABs.

Age HRs HR%
33 44 7.3
34 39 6.5
35 29 4.8

Nothing unusual about these statistics; it is a typical profile of a slugger in decline as he ages. But then Hank began to undergo an 'enhancement.'

Age HRs HR%
36 44 8.0
37 38 7.4

What explains this spike at a latter age? Expansion? Perhaps. But then what happens?

Age HRs HR%
38 47 9.5
39 34 7.6

Hank...What's going on buddy? Aaron's HR% were TOPS in the NL in both 1971 and 1972. Hmm.

Age HRs HR%
40 40 10.2

Which leads us to 1973 when at age 40 in just 392 at bats, juiced 40 HR's for a HR% of 10.2. Once again TOPS in NL for the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR and the HIGHEST HR% in the ENTIRE 23 year career of Hank Aaron.

Hank Aaron at 40 was not the only Atlanta Brave to hit 40 Hrs that season. Teammates Darrell Evans and Davey Johnson blasted 41 and 43 HRs respectively.

Darrell Evans

Year HRs HR%
1971 12 4.6
1972 19 4.5

1973 41 6.9

1974 25 4.4
1975 22 2.8

Notice a statistical anomaly? Let's see what Davey Johnson did.

Davey Johnson

Year HRs HR%
1971 18 3.5
1972 5 1.3

1973 43 7.7

1974 15 3.3
1975 Played 1 game
1976 Did not play MLB

Notice a statistical anomaly? It would be one thing for Hank Aaron to undergo an 'enhancement', but what are the odds that not one but TWO teammates would both have career years in HR's and HR% in the SAME YEAR as when a Congressional Committee issued its final report saying that anabolic steroids were rampant in the game? Why did Darrell Evans and Davey Johnson both experience career spikes in HR's only to return to earth the following year? And how did Hank finish up?


Age HRs HR%
41 20 5.9
42 12 2.6
43 10 3.7

So what happened? Enquiring minds want to know.

The 1996 Baltimore Orioles set at the time the team HR record for one season. Brady Anderson's 50 HR season was viewed suspiciously.

The manager of the 1996 Baltimore Orioles? Davey Johnson.

The only question remains: What did Bud Selig know and when did he know it?

Fay Vincent circulated a draft steroids policy in 1991. Selig knew that if the scab of steroids was picked off, the puss of the 1973 Atlanta Braves would be oozing all over the game. The scandal of Hank Aaron's HR record being tainted by steroids use would have been a PR disaster at the time and. personally, extremely painful to Bud Selig who, after all, is a long-time friend of Hank Aaron.

Hence the boardroom coup which ousted Fay Vincent and made Bud Selig 'Acting Commissioner', while still maintaining his position as the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers, a blatant conflict of interest.

So long as Bud Selig remains in charge of Major League Baseball, the American public will never get to the bottom of the steroids scandal which has sullied the game. He has too much of a personal vested interest in Hank Aaron.

Besides, after this season, Barry Lamar Bonds will BE the HR KING.

LONG LIVE THE KING!!!