Sunday, August 19, 2007

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?



From the Baseball Prospectus Website, an interesting display of the odds of each MLB team making the playoffs from August 15th to the end of the season.

Unfortunately, most teams are clearly out of it. Only 6 AL teams have better than a 3% chance of making the playoffs. In the NL, 10 teams are left with hope. So in total, 16 of 30 teams are still alive.

We are at approximately the comparable equivalent of week twelve in the NFL season. In most seasons, by week twelve, virtually no teams have been eliminated. So much for competitive balance.

I still think this is the #1 issue for both the owners and the players to solve before fans in the "no-chance" league get tired of watching the "modern day St. Louis Browns" and really do have to fold the tent due to lack of interest.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Average wins by position in AL East: 98.6 90.9 82.7 76.7 61.8
AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Red Sox 72 47 .619 98.4 63.6 91.68000 7.59686 99.27686
Yankees 67 52 .579 90.9 71.1 8.24590 60.59689 68.84280
Blue Jays 60 58 .539 82.2 79.8 .07305 2.25895 2.33200
Orioles 55 63 .530 77.3 84.7 .00105 .06524 .06629
Devil Rays 45 74 .439 61.8 100.2 .00000 .00000 .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.6 86.5 80.9 74.3 69.3
AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Tigers 66 53 .527 88.9 73.1 56.24541 4.29476 60.54016
Indians 65 54 .518 87.8 74.2 41.18094 5.75573 46.93667
Twins 59 60 .503 81.0 81.0 2.55227 .40866 2.96093
White Sox 54 64 .436 73.4 88.6 .01961 .00176 .02137
Royals 52 66 .420 70.4 91.6 .00177 .00011 .00187

Average wins by position in AL west: 93.1 87.4 80.3 71.9
AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Angels 69 48 .532 92.4 69.6 78.60670 5.63387 84.24057
Mariners 66 51 .493 87.9 74.1 20.86130 13.01564 33.87694
Athletics 58 62 .529 80.3 81.7 .53115 .37144 .90259
Rangers 52 66 .458 72.1 89.9 .00085 .00010 .00095

Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.6

Average wins by position in NL East: 92.5 88.1 84.4 76.8 71.3
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 66 52 .568 91.6 70.4 70.72263 16.16317 86.88580
Phillies 63 55 .525 86.2 75.8 12.55288 22.10151 34.65439
Braves 63 56 .548 87.1 74.9 16.67778 27.65551 44.33329
Marlins 56 63 .478 76.4 85.6 .04530 .13982 .18512
Nationals 54 65 .434 71.9 90.1 .00140 .00204 .00344

Average wins by position in NL Central: 86.7 83.0 78.6 74.2 70.9 66.9
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Brewers 62 57 .502 84.8 77.2 52.19562 1.62170 53.81733
Cubs 60 58 .511 84.1 77.9 41.36327 1.81828 43.18155
Cardinals 56 60 .466 78.6 83.4 6.02625 .21537 6.24162
Astros 54 65 .433 73.3 88.7 .28139 .00214 .28353
Reds 51 67 .456 71.5 90.5 .12698 .00020 .12718
Pirates 49 68 .417 68.1 93.9 .00649 .00003 .00653

Average wins by position in NL West: 89.7 86.6 84.0 80.7 70.6
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Diamondbacks 67 53 .470 86.6 75.4 32.97483 10.17778 43.15261
Padres 64 54 .526 87.3 74.7 42.99795 9.54745 52.54540
Rockies 61 57 .526 84.5 77.5 16.47985 6.75708 23.23693
Dodgers 60 59 .533 82.7 79.3 7.54648 3.79743 11.34391
Giants 50 69 .479 70.6 91.4 .00089 .00049 .00138

Average wins by NL Wild Card: 88.8

© 2007 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures
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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.