Monday, August 04, 2008

THE LONG ODDS OF MAKING IT AND RETURN ON INVESTMENT




I was happy to see another source detailing the chances that a typical baseball parent has for maneuvering their child from the "travel-ball/Little League/PONY ball world to the higher levels. It's clear at times that a reality check is in order.

FROM DALLASNEWS.COM:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/070608dnsposcholarship1.3b76d39.html


It has often amazed me how much parents are willing to spend for the off-chance that their child will compete for a partial baseball scholarship at the NCAA level. Given that baseball is considered a minor sport, with only 13.7 scholarships available for a 25-30 man roster, well do the math. A typical player will only receive a 1/4 or a 1/3 scholarship anyway.

Some parents are willing to "invest" $10-$25,000 honing their game and getting exposure, on the off chance they will be offered a chance to play NCAA ball or get drafted to play professionally.

Given that nowadays many schools per year costs exceed that amount PER YEAR, you're laying out money you have almost no chance of ever getting back. Maybe better to put the money in a pre-paid college program and have the player walk-on, from a Return on Investment standpoint.

As referenced in the article as well, according to the Michigan High School Athletic Association, there are 30 TIMES more college scholarship dollars available for academics than athletics.


The Long Odds of Making It

Numbers from the NCAA:
BASEBALL:
High School Student-Athletes:....455,300
HS Senior Student-Athletes:......130,100

NCAA Student Athletes:...........25,700
NCAA Freshman Student-Athletes:...7,300

NCAA Student-Athletes Drafted:..........600
High School Student-Athletes Drafted:...650

% HS to NCAA..............5.6%
% NCAA to Professional...10.5%
% HS to Professional......0.5%

Far be it from me to squash any ones dream and since I do umpire and coach in both baseball and softball, to the extent the travel-ball phenomena grows up here in Illinois, I would stand to benefit every step of the way. It just seems like many parents have no idea what the landscape is at each level of play and get a rude awakening when they finally find out exactly how the game is played.

The problem is all of this romantic talk of allowing children to "pursue their dreams" too often denigrates into a "pursuit of the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow". The pot of gold may be a college scholarship or a pro contract, but it puts the kid in the unenviable position of being a commodity when all they really want or need to be doing before they are approaching adulthood is playing a game.

It is both sad and disturbing to hear nine and ten-year old girls parroting that the reason they like to play softball is because they could get a college scholarship. WHERE DOES THAT COME FROM? Not to be with their friends, or because it's fun. Because they could get a college scholarship. OK, have fun with that.

The parents who spend countless dollars on travel-ball and expensive pitching/hitting lessons and/or personal training end up going to the field with a sense of entitlement. They've paved the way for their child and are ill-prepared for the potholes in the road that occur when a call doesn't go their son's way or the coach doesn't play their Johnny over Billy. The umpire must be an idiot, doesn't he know their son is the next Ted Williams or Greg Maddux? The coach must be an imbecile, how can he not see their child's innate ability, to say nothing of the abilities bought and paid for.

This weed of entitlement then carries itself to baseball fields all the way up the line to high school ball and in some cases college baseball. But the weed begins it's growth in the youth fields of travel baseball.

The funny thing is, purely from an analysis standpoint, you would think that the more games that you are playing to determine your future, the less relative importance each individual game, each individual call, each individual coaches decision has on determining the future of Little Johnny and Little Billy. You're increasing the overall sample size from which to make a decision. If there's no future benefit to doing that, then the entire premise for playing more games falls flat.

If the coach sits Johnny one game to give Billy some AB's, Johnny's parents are all over the coach asking why Johnny the Stud is sitting. Or they sit by the fence fuming all game, making life miserable for other parents. Not to mention that they are demonstrating to Little Johnny how NOT to be a good team player.

If an umpire calls strike three on a pitch on the black, the same type parent is all over the umpire, as if that on call, that one AB will determine the kids future.

The real irony of the situation is this: even if the college or pro scout of these parents best baseball wet dreams happened to be at the game in question - and observed the situation in question - I can guarantee you from all of my experience, the scout would learn more about the kid and judge him from how he acted after the adversity happened.

Like scouts don't know that occasionally a close strike goes the pitchers way, they've only seen thousands of ballgames. They watch how the kid acts after he K's. If he keeps his head up, doesn't act out demonstrably about the call, he probably gains points in the scouts eye. More importantly would be how he responds the next AB. Did he learn anything from the previous AB? Does he make proper adjustments based on that knowledge?

It's not so much that you fail in baseball - it's a game of failure - it's a matter of how you respond to the failures that inevitably come your way.

Random Inspirational Quote:
"Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in rising up every time we fail."


JUST LET THEM PLAY PEOPLE!!! IT'S BASEBALL. GET A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE AND A CLUE.

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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.