Wednesday, February 10, 2010

(Price) Fixing the Baseball Draft


I still cannot understand that seemingly reasonable people in the baseball media continue to parrot the owners bargaining stance regarding implementation of a "slotting" system to determine bonus payments to players drafted.

There has been am "informal" gentlemen's agreement to hold bonus payment down by agreement, but over the last few years, this agreement among thieves has broken down time after time, allowing the better teams to draft quality players later. This circumvents the basic purpose of the player draft, which is to drive better players to less successful teams and allow them to rebuild and become competitive.

So the fix is to formalize the "unwritten" agreement?

This ignores one of the fundamental weaknesses of any price fixing agreement within a cartel--which is what the major league owners are--which is that they tend to break down due to "cheating" by cartel members looking out for their own best interests individually.

It happened when the agreement was informal, it will happen when the agreement is formalized. It's the nature of the beast. People will always look out for their own selfish interests first, even after they have agreed with their partners to act in the interest of the assemled group.

The slot system is a great idea for the owners, if they could ever adhere to it.

It rallies the pitchfork and fire carrying crowd in the media to rail against "greedy, overpaid" players. This appeals to "Joe Six-Pack", who theoretically has to pay higher ticket prices. I say theoretically, because there is no correlation between rising players salaries and rising ticket prices.

It pits veteran players vs. rookie players, who haven't played in professional baseball and are not represented within the players union. Here is where the union generally steps in as the adult in the room to prevent the veterans from hurting themselves by understanding the concept that diminishing on class of players rights diminishes all players rights. And salaries for that matter. I mean, get serious guys, do you honestly believe that the savings the owners will get by suppressing rookie salaries will flow to you? If you do, I still have that bridge in Brooklyn for sale. You might be interested.

The whole concept is good PR for the owners, but bad policy. It won't work. If by working we mean driving down salaries. Don't even get me started on driving better players to lesser teams. That's not even on the owners radar screen.

The reason it won't work jumped out of the page at me when I was reading an investment newsletter "Reflections" by John Gilbert, CIO for General-Re New England Asset Management.

Mr. Gilbert was describing the futility of price fixing in an investment context when he said:

Price fixing is always and everywhere a bad idea because it distorts the allocation of finite resources by deluding the people who make such decisions. It can work for a while, since in the short to intermediate term, politics trumps economics. But economics wins over time. Unfortunately, the longer the distortion continues, the greater the adjustment to a market level when it happens.

To paraphrase:
- He is saying in absolute terms, it is ALWAYS a BAD IDEA.
- It is a distortion designed to delude people into foolishly parting with their "allocation of finite resources" (ie: MONEY).
- It is a short-term fix at best.
- It is a triumph of politics over economics. Remember, this is supposed to be an economic fix.

Sounds great, where do I sign up for this type of fix?

It seems however, as if ultimately politics may trump economics in this case. We will have to see how it plays out and we won't know for sure until five to ten years have passed. It stinks if you are a player coming out in the next five to ten years though, doesn't it?

Basically, I am fundamentally opposed to the idea of price fixing, on the basis that it is illegal in most economic situations. The concept of 1) forming a cartel, 2) which will agree to do something illegal and then 3) cheat on each other internally, sounds like compounding of a bad error in policy. It seems like a policy doomed to fail.

It's strange that many in the baseball media reflexively support the concept and do not do any more than a modicum of thinking or research to find out if it would actually do what the owners say it will do. Isn't it? Your right, it's not strange at all.

That's part of the problem.

No comments:

Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.