The picks are in and now is time for the knee-jerk reaction / report card style analysis.
The Winners:
Cardinals - The Cardinals did about as well as anyone out there scooping up Arkansas 3B Zack Cox with the 25th pick. Nobody would bat an eye to see him listed on a top ten list. RHP Seth Blair was picked with the 46th compensation pick for losing Mark DeRosa. Again a good value, Blair was a borderline 1st rounder. RHP Tyrell Jenkins was picked with the 50th compensation pick for losing Joel Pinero, a good deal for the Cards, as Jenkins was maybe a touch under the 1st round.
Red Sox - The Sox picked up 2B Kolbrin Vitek in the 20th spot, a virtual wash from a value standpoint. Later they picked up OF Bryce Brentz with the 36th compensation pick for losing Billy Wagner. Brentz was rated higher going in maybe a mid first-rounder. They also scooped up LSU RHP Anthony Renaudo with the 39th compensation pick for losing Jason Bay. If he's healthy this is a huge bargain. Renaduo was rated somewhere around the 20th slot. A good pick on value that could really swing in the Sox favor.
Blue Jays - Picked Georgia Tech RHP Deck McGuire with their 11th pick. McGuire may have been the top collegiate RHP available and a top five talent. Later they selected Citadel RHP Asher Wojciechowski with the 41st compensation pick. Most had Wojo in the first round pretty solidly. The Jays should see quick return on these two collegiate pitchers.
Tigers - Recovered from the loss of their 1st round pick, compensation to Astros for signing Jose Valverde, by selecting prep SS Nick Castellanos with the 44th compensation pick for losing Brandon Lyon. Castellanos was a borderline top ten value, so he may be a signability problem. Also picked Texas RHP Chance Ruffinf with the #48 compensation pick for losing Fernando Rodney, a decent pick here, good bloodlines as Ruffin is the son of former big leaguer Bruce Ruffin.
Rays - Continue to stockpile young talent. Picked prep OF Josh Sale in the 17th slot, a borderline top ten talent. Select prep C/SS Justin O'Connor in the 31st slot, O'Connor looked to be a top twenty selection. They followed with OF Drew Vettleson in the 42nd slot, a wash as a value selection.
I also like the Reds pick of Yasmani Grandal in the 12th slot, a top ten talent. The White Sox get good value out of their 13th selection LHP Chris Sale.
The Rays, Red Sox and Tigers situation highlight some of the problems I see with the draft as currently constructed. MLB has set up this "unofficial", gentlemen's agreement slotting system whereby there is an informal agreement on what to pay in bonus to a player based on where he is selected. The Rays receive compensation for not signing their last years 1st rounder, LeVon Washington and the Rangers also received a compensatory 1st rounder for failing to sign last years first rounder Matt Purke.
I would think part of the rationale for having these compensatory picks in place is to provide incentive for teams to toe the party line on the bonus slotting system. You lose one years worth of player development if you don't sign a player. But there is no penalty in place for teams that violate the slot and overpay (Yankees, Tigers come to mind). This allows the agents to shop their guys to the large-revenue clubs by holding fast to their inflated bonus demands, even if it is above slot to the team that selects. This allows talent to slide down the ladder from the teams that most need it, to the teams that do not and circumvents the slot system. If you approve an above slot contract you should lose a corresponding future draft pick, similar to the compensation for losing signing. Otherwise, there is no penalty for these teams that continue to violate and go over slot.
The other problem is the free-agent compensation, which was first put in to help the small revenue teams who lost marquee players. In the first day, the Red Sox had three picks, the Angels had four picks, the Rangers had four picks, the Cardinals had three picks. This game of renting high-priced players at the end of their contracts to receive compensation is another deck stacked in favor of the large revenue teams versus the small revenue teams.
When talk turns to "fixing" the draft, these two items should be near the top of the list as well.
Anyway, on to the losers from yesterday:
Cubs - Did anyone cause more jaws to drop and eyeballs to roll than the beloved Cubs with their selection of RHP Hayden Simpson with the 16th pick? I think it is safe to say that no team had him in their top 100. Maybe Top 200. The Cubs clearly must have turned to their tenth round selection page instead of the 1st round and went with who was on the top of that list. Or they know something about this kid that nobody else on the planet did before yesterday. This one needs to work out for the Cubs pretty quick.
Diamondbacks - I thought the Diamondbacks looked like they were going to lead the list with RHP Barret Loux with the 6th pick. Not sure if he was on many 1st round lists and it would have been towards the bottom if that.
Rangers - The Rangers did the Cubs times four. Four picks that they seem to know something that nobody else knew. OF Jake Skole in the 15 spot I thought was a big time reach. Canadian C Kellin Deglin with the 22nd pick was an OK pick, he was getting late buzz as a possible surprise first rounder, but probably not a huge value here. RHP Luke Jackson at #45 and college 3B Mike Olt at #48 were head scratchers here. Two players from cold weather climates going down to the Texas heat?? They have a couple of minor league seasons to get acclimated, I suppose.
Angels - The Angels went quantity over quality it looks like. RHP/3B Kaleb Cowart was OK at #18.
RHP Cameron Bedrosian at #29 seemed like a reach, but the bloodlines are good. SS Taylor Lindsey was a head scratcher as was CF Ryan Bolden in the 40th spot. Both could have been had later it seems and there was better talent available.
Most interesting picks:
Astros - I thought the Astros could have picked OF DeLino DeShields with their 19th pick rather than their 8th pick, I think he still would have been there. But if that's the guy you really felt strongly about and you didn't think he would be there at 19, I can't fault the team too much for that. They followed with IL RHP Micahel Foytenowicz at #19 (my #1 rated area prospect). Again, he may have been a late first-rounder, sandwich pick type but if he's the guy you really wanted....The Astros ended their day by drafting collegiate OF Michael Kvasnicka as a C prospect, I believe. Kvasnicka did get a lot of late buzzas one who could crash the first round.
Best talent still on the board:
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP A.J. Cole
RHP Stetson Allie
OF Austin Wilson
RHP/OF Brett Eibner
RHP Jesse Hahn
RHP Chad Bettis
SS Yordy Cabrera
LHP James Paxson
RHP Kevin Gausman
LHP Sammy Solis
OF Ryan LaMarre
OF LeVon Washington
C Micah Gibbs
SB/SS Jedd Gyorko
OF Jarrett Parker
1B Hunter Morris
OF Reggie Golden
OF Austin Wates
OF Todd Cunningham
OF Kyle Parker
RHP Ryne Stanek
3B Kris Bryant
RHP Jacob Petricka
RHP Tyler Thornburg
If the Giants can pick up one or two of these guys today, I will be pretty happy with this draft. I like the 1st pick a lot. Could be a potential successor to Aaron Rowand in CF.
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