True “GRIT”: Quantifying the Game’s Grittiest Players and Teams. - Beyond the Box Score

Great article about a topic I obviously can relate to -- GRIT!! The formula is a tad bit complex and walks away from the old saw about gritty players doing things that don't show up in the box score. This author found a bunch of stuff that does appear. Not as much statistical relevance to winning as I might have thought, but this exercise identifies the blue-collar, lunch plate special kind of guys that most fans love to watch.

So here it goes.

Jose Reyes was a surprise at the top of the players (+) list, Buster Posey making the plus side of the list was not a surprise. I guess I may have been giving Reyes a bit of the Mutts mark down. We'll see how he does north of the border.

Curtis Granderson and Cody Ross were surprise on the (-) side of the players ledger. I would still take both in a heart beat, as well as Josh Hamilton.

Giants, Braves and Cardinals scoring high on the team ledger doesn't surprise very much. Add in the Padres, who are trying to model these organizations, and you get the perception of the NL scoring a bit higher than the AL in general in this area.

The Twins, Angels, Yankees and Rays lead the AL. with the Yankees and Angels maybe a bit of  a head turner. Sort of belies the perception of the corporate, white collar type image for both that a mega payroll implies. A bit of the anti-GRIT perhaps?

Interesting exercise and results from the data.  

from Beyond the Box Score:
True “GRIT”: Quantifying the Game’s Grittiest Players and Teams. - Beyond the Box Score:

The GRIT formula

To quantify GRIT I took a population of 948 hitters with at least 350 at bats since 2009. I then weighted the above-listed stats by their correlation to WAR. This coefficient which would act as a weight on the differential of each stat and the league average total, to answer our question:

Does "GRIT" equate to wins?

The formula derived is as follows:
"GRIT" = (0.309)*((SB-lgAVG(SB))+(0.389)*((Fld+Pos)-lgAVG(Fld+Pos))+(0.0319)*((Contact%-lgAVG (Contact%))+(0.5123)*((BB - lgAVG(BB))-(0.2117)*((K -lgAVG(K))+(0.0466)*((SF+SH)-lgAVG(SF+SH))+(0.104)*((IFH+BUH+BU)-lgAVG(IFH+BUH+BU))+(0.283)*((BsR-lgAVG(BsR))+(0.363))"

'via Blog this'


The basic premise:

Do the metrics we associate with grit provide value for that player overall. In other words, how much of a player's overall worth (WAR) is attributed to the value he provides through his "grit"?

I have summarized my idea of a gritty player to be as follows, with the correlating stat in parenthesis:

1) A player steals his share of bases.(SB)

2) A player that can field his position. (Fld+Pos)

3) A player that makes a lot of contact. (Contact %)

4) A player who has a high walk to strikeout ratio. (BB-K)

5) A player who has a good amount of sacrifice hits and flies. (SH+SF)

6) A player that shows best effort by accumulating infield hits. (IFH)

7) A player that sacrifice bunts + bunts for hits. (BU+BUH)

The results by player:

With that being settled, let us check out the 2012 top 25 scrappiest players according to GRIT score. These players will be statistical representations of the grittiest player by our quantifiable means:

 

And the 25 least gritty players acceding by GRIT score:

Does it translate into Wins?:

And now for the final findings on our big question: Does GRIT = wins? For individual GRIT and its correlation to the player’s WAR, I have pegged the correlation of determination to be R^2 = 0.335. In doing so, I have determined that over one third of a player’s value in terms of WAR can be explained through GRIT, which is not terribly high but still statistically relevant.

Comprehensive team WAR and its correlation to GRIT is pegged closer to 40%, a R^2 = 0.373. In short, GRIT does not account for the majority of a team or player’s value but is nonetheless a factor to consider. A team like the Diamondbacks, whose prerogative this offseason was to acquire and accumulate a team of scrappy players, like Martin Pradoand Tony Campana, while already boasting Gerardo Parra and Aaron Hill, are not necessarily wrong in doing so. However it is going to take a lot more than just the value a scrappy player bring to the table, to field a winning team. Look at the Twins who in ranked second in GRIT score in the majors and compiled only 66 wins, good for last place in the AL Central. Grit and wins do not go hand and hand, as I am sure the Twins and their fans learned the hard way in 2012. Take note Diamondbacks, I am talking to you!