Tuesday, November 11, 2014

How much "should" the Panda cost?



I like the methodology and the result derived from Fan Graphs Crowdsourcing effort: 5 years / $79-80M. 

from fangraphs.com
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-55-free-agents/#more-166995

#5 Pablo Sandoval (3B) 
AgePABB%K%AVGOBPSLGwOBAwRC+OffDefWAR
276386.1 %13.3 %.279.324.415.3231113.35.33.0
Median Years: 5
Median AAV: $16 million
Total: 5 years, $80 million
Average Years: 5.0
Average AAV: $15.9 million
Total: 5.0 years, $79.0 million
Will the Giants extend Sandoval a qualifying offer (about $15.3M)?
Yes: 96%. No: 4%.
Will Sandoval accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?
No: 96%. Yes: 4%.
There are multiple third-base free-agent options this offseason. Which of the following will record the highest WAR between now and his retirement?
Pablo Sandoval: 48%.
Hanley Ramirez: 34%.
Chase Headley: 18%.

But Mr. Market will care not what the masses think and one team could propel this number into the stratosphere. At least that is the fear among Giants fans. Since the entire off-season depends on re-signing Sandoval, I thought I would crunch the numbers and see what is the best number the Gainst could / should come up with. 

Hey, it's not my money!!

OK, for 2015 the Giants currently have Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, Lincecum @ $18M (Ugh!) and Posey @ $17.28M according to Cot's Contracts data.  
-- SANDOVAL @ $17M here, lower than Posey and Pence for now. 

For 2016, Cain @ $20.83M, Posey @ $20.78 and Pence @ $18.5. 
-- SANDOVAL @ $18M here, still not Pence money, but stay tuned. 

For 2017, Posey @ $22.18M, Cain @ $20.83M, Pence @ $18.5M, and Pagan falls off as a Free Agent freeing up $11M. 
-- SANDOVAL @ $18-19M here. 

For 2018, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence @ $18.50M.
-- SANDOVAL @ $19-20M here. Ahead of Pence.

For 2019, Posey @ $22.18M and Pence  goes FA, freeing up $18.50 
-- SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

For 2020, which is the sixth year, again SANDOVAL @ $20-21M here. 

So for 4 years you are @ $72-74M. The fifth year gets you to $92-93M and the sixth year fleshes out @ $112-114M and you get to stay in the best place in the world for the Panda to finish out his career and flesh out his legacy by walking among Giants. 

You're welcome!!!

  


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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

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  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
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  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
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  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
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