https://news.dartmouth.edu/news/2012/03/kyle-hendricks-12-heads-major-league-baseballs-spring-training
Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Hendricks face off today at AT&T Park. Both stars are having what have to be considered as off years by both of their previous standards. It reminded me that, in a more obscure way, they faced off in a statistical analysis sort of way to post two of the most incredible Low-A ball debut years that I can remember seeing, although I'm sure there are many others.
Bumaganer lit up the Sally League as a fresh faced first round draft pick out of high school and lit up his elders (relatively speaking). Hendricks lit up the Northwest League in Spokane in 2011 after leaving Dartmouth following his junior year.
These two guys couldn't be more different as pitchers, one a LH power pitcher, one a RH finesse pitcher. One a collegiate pitcher, and an Ivy Leaguer at that. The other, a high school draftee from North Carolina.
Almost nothing on Hendricks' stat line from college (as shown below) would give an indication of what was to come, which makes his draft/sign by scout Jay Heafner of the Texas Rangers in the eight round, one of the biggest bargains in recent draft history.
Unfortunately, for the Rangers, the fruits are being enjoyed by the Cubbies.
Heafner must have seen something in those nine starts from Hendricks' junior year that was not demonstrated in his freshman and sophomore years, or the light just went on for Hendricks, because as you can see, Hendricks just lit up Low-A ball, albeit a small sample size. The results continued right into the major leagues for both guys.
Bumgarner's results are more amazing from the standpoint that he was a 19 year old competing against a league average 22 year old league, a boy among men. He treated the men like boys for 141+ innings and streaked right into the Giants rotation a little over a year later.
Both guys controlled the peripheral stats, the control-ables about as good as almost anyone south of Clayton Kershaw.
The Tale of the Tape:
Both guys posted a K/BB rate ( the best single indicator of prospect status rather than suspect ) north of 7.50. As a point of reference, 3.00 or better is pretty good.
Hendricks was competing against same aged hitters ( RAE, or Relative Age Effect = 1.00 ) Bumgarner was a precocious teenager.
Both guys kept the strikeouts up, the walks down and the ball in the yard. A great formula for success. Both guys control the strike zone, they control the count, they control the hitters.
Hendricks control numbers actually appeared to go up in professional ball from his last year in collegiate ball, indicating that he made an early and easy transition from the college dorm to the low minor league lifestyle. Bumgarner obviously was not a deer in the headlights kind of guy either.
To show how incredible Hendricks number are, the line named Average is the average result of five Ivy League pitchers from this years 2017 draft. He blew the doors off the Average. However, there is one pitcher who is posting near-Hendricks like numbers in Low-A ball this year.
Keep you eye on Christian Taugner 6-2, 190 RHP drafted in the 37th round by the Milwaukee Brewers out of Brown and Roselle, IL.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=christian-taugner
Taugner was the last Ivy League pitcher drafted, even though I had him as the highest ranked Ivy pitcher on my board. WDIK? Early returns and peripheral stats are very Hendrick-like, except Taugner is giving up more hits, while striking out guys at a higher rate. However he gets guys out, it must be funky.
Really, when you look under the hood and beyond the usual stats that fans pay attention to -- the uncontrol-ables like W-L, ERA, WHIP -- you can see some of these future stars rise a standard deviation or two above their peer group and prior history.
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