Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses:
Madison
Bumgarner’s greatest strength and his greatest weakness are one and the same.
His indefatigable tenacity, his will to win and force you to submit to his will
is his greatest strength most notably demonstrated during his epic 2014 World
Series performance. His analysis that he had “about 200 pitches in his arm”
before Game 7 would have drawn guffaws from most teammates, teammates know that
is just Madison Bumgarner.
That
same quality however has translated into his greatest weakness at times. Not
making adjustment in his pitch sequencing to adapt to his lower velocity
reading is partly due to his mind-set that he’s going to beat you playing “good
old country hardball.” That works until it doesn’t, and you must adjust. The
feistiness on the mound, the challenging of hitters for celebrations is part of
what makes him great on the one hand, but leaves you shaking your head on the
other hand. You must take the good with the bad, and the three rings, which
Bumgarner was a large part of every one of them going back to his days as a
precocious rookie in 2010 at age 20, demonstrate that there has been much more
good than bad.
Post
injuries tends – loss of velocity, stuff on FB - Misses plate more than misses
bats at times due to stubbornness to want to win the battle his way – without
giving in – rather the best, most economical way. This has led to elevated
pitch-counts earlier, reaching 100 pitches around 5/6 inning rather than 7+.
Pitch Repertoire
At-A-Glance
Madison
Bumgarner has thrown 29,263 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x
system between 2009 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular
Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2019, he has relied
primarily on his Four seam Fastball (92mph) and Cutter (87mph), also mixing in
a Curve (78mph) and Change (85mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (89mph).
Basic
description of 2019 pitches compared to other LHP:
His
four-seam fastball generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' four
seamers, has essentially average velo, results in somewhat more flyballs
compared to other pitchers' four seamers and has slightly less natural movement
than typical. His cutter generates more whiffs/swing compared to other
pitchers' cutters, has slightly above average velo, has some natural sink and
has strong cutting action. His curve is a real worm killer that generates an
extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' curves, has sweeping
glove-side movement, has little depth and is slightly
harder than usual. His change is basically never swung at and missed compared
to other pitchers' changeups, is slightly firmer than usual, results in
somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some
natural sink to it. His sinker (take this with a grain of salt because he's
only thrown 2 of them in 2019) is basically never swung at and missed compared
to other pitchers' sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other
pitchers' sinkers, has surprisingly little arm side run, has slightly below
average velo and has some natural sinking action.
Contract Value
and Performance Forecast:
Similarity Scores -Baseball Reference:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml
I
looked at Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Jon Lester as
LHP contemporaries and comparables. I added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to
demonstrate that the Giants have displayed a willingness to pay a premium
salary well into the future for free agents based on performance delivered
outside of the organization. It would be a difficult PR sell to let a “face of
the franchise” iconic figure who has delivered premium results at discounted
prices, take his talents to another franchise.
MLB Salary
Distribution and Comparable pitchers to Bumgarner – C. Slavik
To
look at the risk of the aging curve working against the extending of a
long-term contract, aside from the prior mentioned comparables, is this
analysis from Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs.
Pitcher Aging Curves: Starters and Relievers - by
Bill Petti (FanGraphs)
To
show the differences in starters I decided to plot the career of CC Sabathia
against Scott Kazmir. Both were hard-throwing lefties who had great success
early in their careers (FIP- in the high 80s and low 90s in their first two
seasons), but — as we know — one went on to have a dominant career while the
other was out of baseball by 27 years old.
Readers
will notice that the ages for the curves differ by pitcher type. This is due to
sample sizes at the various age levels. There are more starters younger than 23
who pitch in back-to-back seasons than there are relievers. Similarly, we were
able to get enough relievers pitching in their age-37 and age-38 seasons,
whereas the sample was just too small to include starters.
As
we noted in the introduction to the series, the curves are different in a
number of ways. In general, relievers age more dramatically than starters.
Sabathia
and Kazmir Aging Curves – Bill Petti (Fan Graphs)
Sabathia Salary History – Baseball
Reference.com
Sabathia
produced 43.5 WAR through his age 28 year, Bumgarner is comparable at 39 WAR to
the completion of 2019, his age 29 year. The Yankees paid for Sabathia from age
29 through age 36, for 8 years @ $190.5M or $23.8125M per year going forward.
That is in line with what I project Bumgarner will receive from the Giants. I
believe that Bumgarner will age more like Sabathia than Kazmir due to his size,
which tends to age and hold up to injuries better, as Sabathia has
demonstrated.
Both
Sabathia and Bumgarner are legitimate 4 WAR, top of the rotation innings
eaters, with the big difference being playoff performance of which Bumgarner is
prolific and legendary. Bumgarner will also be chasing legendary pitching
greats like Carl Hubbell and Christy Mathewson in various team history
categories towards the end of any free-agent contract he signs with them. From
a marketing standpoint, this could be a huge potential windfall for the Giants.
There will always be considerable risk and angst over the extension of
long-term contracts to anyone approaching age 30.
Matt
Swartz, also on FanGraphs took a retrospective look at free agent contracts
signed between 2007-2012 and found the following general results:
A Retrospective
Look at the Price of a Win, by Matt Swartz, February 14, 2012
In
fact, if you look at the $/WAR paid for players with at least six years of
service time throughout the 2007 to 2011 seasons, you’d get the following
ratios:
First
year of contracts: $4.25 million/WAR
Later
years of contracts: $5.5 million/WAR
Combining
all contracts: $4.92 million/WAR
3)
Free agents who sign elsewhere generally give their new teams less bang for
their buck.
The
$/rWAR* for all 196 multi-year deals that ended in between 2007 to 2011:
Re-signed
players: $4.9 million/WAR
Players
who switched teams: $6.8 million/WAR
Difference:
39%
Looking
only at deals between two and four years long, I found the following
differences:
Re-signed
players who signed before the end of the season: $4.6 million/rWAR*
Re-signed
players who signed after the end of the season: $6.6 million/rWAR*
Players
who switched teams after the season ended: $8.9 million/rWAR*
*Note
that rWAR is different (and usually lower — than WAR used at FanGraphs.
Swartz’s results
ranging from $4.9M/WAR - $6.8M/WAR is in line with our findings / range of
$6.59M – $7.41M per WAR based on the comps listed. The only question then
becomes is Bumgarner more a 3.5 WAR guy or a 4.0 WAR guy and how far out do you
go on the contract. A 5 to 8-year range, taking Bumgarner to age 34 – 37.
If the team
protected against the outer years of an 8-year deal, then I applied the higher $7.41M
per WAR per year and assumed a 4.0 WAR average. If the security to the player
of an 8-year, effectively making Bumgarner a career Giant, the lower $6.59M per
WAR is used and the lesser 3.5 WAR figure
applied.
Assuming those
conditions, the # years and salary range should look something like this:
Length of
Contract Salary Range Average Salary
5
years @ $150M - $160M $30.0M – $32.0M
6 years @ $165M - $175M $27.5M – $29.2M
7 years @ $180M - $190M $25.7M
- $27.1M
8 years @ $200M - $210M $25.0M
- $26.25M
Charles Slavik is a Sport Management student at University of North Florida, Go Ospreys!! and is primarily interested in data analytics and baseball. He can be reached at https://twitter.com/theslav1959 or read at The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365 http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/.
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