Sunday, September 07, 2014

....and down the stretch they come


The most exciting words in sports. In horse racing, it plays itself out in seconds. In baseball we have to wait a little longer, but things are beginning to shape up in both leagues. 

Since the big trade, the A's have actually lost ground to the Angels, but not enough that we are still not looking at a potential A's- Angels battle for a trip to the World Series. The A's are probably the most balance team in baseball, with the 3rd best offense and defense among the contenders. The Nationals would hold that title in the National League with the fifth best offense and the 2nd best defense. The other National League team are either decidedly one-dimensional or just not very good.  The Dodger might be setting up best for the NLCS battle with the Nats at this point, with the Giants needing to build some September momentum and home-field advantage throughout. 

For now it looks like Angels - Tigers and A's Orioles leading to an Angels - A's final, with the Angels advancing to the World Series. 

In the National, it shape sup as Nats - Giants and Dodgers - Cardinals leading to Nats - Dodgers with the Nats advancing to the World Series.  

With an Angels - National World Series, I would think the Angels would be pretty big favorites to win, unless pitching wins in the playoffs. The Angels would seem to have the advantage in terms of experience in general and playoff experience specifically. 

The leaders in terms of offense ( based on RS / G ): 
Tigers 4.68
Angels 4.64
A's 4.62
Orioles 4.36
Nationals 4.29

The offensive laggards are:
Braves 3.78
Cardinals 3.87
Mariners 4.00 

The Braves do not have the pitching to overcome this weak offense, even though they do have great pitching. The Cardinals are the only team still in it with a negative run-differential. If anyone can overcome that negative stat it's the Cardinals and it would have to be with superior pitching, it's just that they've had injuries there that will be tough to for them overcome. 

On the defensive side of the ball ( based on RA/G ):
Mariners 3.39
Nationals 3.51
A's 3.60
Braves 3.62
Dodgers and Giants 3.67

The defensive laggards are:
Tigers 4.32
Brewers 4.26
Pirates 4.07 

If pitching and defense rule in the playoffs, the Mariners and Braves have hope if the can get there. I'm just not sure they get there. Same for the Brew crew and the Pirates. The Giants and Dodgers are soooooo one dimensional but would make for a great NLCS finale. 

The Royals with a 4.09 RS/G and 3.96 RA/G are the most nondescript team still in in the hunt at this point, so I hope they don't make it simply because I would have no explanation as to how they got there. They did thump the Giants recently so I do know they can play and they are probably closest to the Tigers in terms of ability even if they lag them badly in terms of recent success. 

The Mariners would probably be the most scary party crashers with King Felix to carry them and the Cardinals or the Tigers the most likely to fold the tent early, but we shall see how it all plays out. 

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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.