Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Which Neighborhoods are dangerous?


the_chicago_way_by_buckleytypographics-d

So to cut down on the possibility of "steering" you can't be given information on the safety of the neighborhood you are potentially going to choose to live in. Why not? It fits right in with The Chicago Way.


Murder In Chicago: Which Neighborhoods Are Dangerous?

This article is from June of 2013.

So, the government doesn't like real estate agents pontificating on this matter precisely because it is so subjective and they don't want real estate agents "steering" home buyers to particular neighborhoods based upon their own prejudices. Steering can also prevent a neighborhood from ever improving by discouraging law abiding citizens from moving into it. So there are fair housing laws that prevent us from making certain kinds of statements about which neighborhoods are dangerous or safe.
However, that doesn't mean that real estate agents have to remain totally silent on the matter. Usually we will recommend that a home buyer check some Web site for crime statistics or hang out in a neighborhood for a while to see if they feel comfortable there. For example, a bunch of loitering adult males in the middle of the work day is usually not a good sign. Idle hands..
By just looking at this map and comparing it to a heat map of median income for Chicago you can plainly see that murder correlates pretty strongly with income. Again, idle hands... Also, isn't it odd that the murders appear to occur along diagonal lines - from northwest to southeast. What's with that? If anyone has any insights I'm all ears.




Getting Real

Getting Real

Link to Getting Real

Posted: 06 Jul 2015 05:20 AM PDT
I first looked at Chicago murders a couple of years ago and have been meaning to update it since. That first blog post is actually good reading for all the necessary caveats and nuances that go with any sort of data like this: Murder In Chicago: Which Neighborhoods Are Dangerous. As I explained in that original post it's difficult to definitively declare a particular neighborhood safe or dangerous. But it's still helpful to look at the data to see where the most people are being killed. For this exercise I went back to the city of Chicago's crime data portal and pulled all the homicide records for the 12 month period ending June 30. There were a total of 448 murders during that time period, which is on par with the last time I did this analysis. I then aggregated the data by community area and mapped it on Google Maps. Here is the summary by community area, sorted from highest to lowest. However, you can't possibly read this graph without first clicking on it to expand it. Also, note that if a community area had no murders it's not on the list. Case in point: Lincoln Park. The map below is interactive so you can zoom in or out and also click on the balloons for a bit more information. (Note: if you are reading this via email I don't think you will be seeing an interactive map below. However, you can click on the title of this post in your email and it should take you to the post on the Web where you can see everything.) Also, if you want to work with a larger map you can go to my underlying Chicago murder crime map. Yeah, I know that there are other crime maps out there but they often have a lot of different crimes lumped together, or they are limited to a small area, or they limit you to just a few weeks' data. #ChicagoCrime #ChicagoMurders If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market, get an insider's view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry, or you just think I'm the next Kurt Vonnegut you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.




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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.