Friday, June 24, 2011

Giants Vogelsong continues throwing gems


Ryan Vogelsong continues his incredible run and is now being mentioned as a potential All-Star candidate, if not the N.L. starting pitcher. His microscopic ERA is incredible. Andrew Baggerly notes that it was a minor adjustment that Vogelsong was not able to make in the past that has vaulted Vogelsong from fringe player to potential All-Star. Once again illustrating the thin line between success and failure in the big leagues and the power of persistence and perseverance.

From Mercurynews.com
POSTGAME NOTES: Vogelsong’s starry streak reaching historic levels, the anatomy of a scoring change, how a foul ball turned to horror for a Giants fan, etc. | Extra Baggs:

"He needed his curveball to do that. And it occurred to him: He hadn’t been keeping his front side closed when he tried to throw it earlier. Vogelsong made the adjustment on the mound, something he couldn’t do as a younger pitcher when the big leagues washed him away. And after striking out just one batter in the first six innings, when he faced his toughest spot of the night, he fanned Danny Valencia and Luke Hughes in succession."

From SFgate.com
Ryan Vogelsong's gem lifts SF Giants over Twins
Henry Schulman, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, June 23, 2011

If only Vogelsong could showcase his talents to the manager who will make the final picks for the National League All-Star team (wink, wink).

"He's going to get real strong consideration," Bochy said. "He deserves that. We've still got a couple of weeks to go, but that's how well he's thrown, to have his name mentioned. I will say one thing: He's done everything he needs to do to go there."

Vogelsong is trying to dodge the issue, but when asked what it would mean to be an All-Star, he answered honestly.

"That would be amazing," he said, "especially with the path I've been on. An All-Star team at the major-league level has never been close to a chance for me. I don't think I've ever made an All-Star game in pro ball."

NBA draft 2011: Chicago Bulls get Nikola Mirotic with Rockets' 23rd pick, according to reports; draft Jimmy Butler with 30th pick - ESPN Chicago

MARQUETTE'S JIMMY BUTLER

With their stash of early picks, it seems like the Bulls took one for now, one for later. Jimmy Butler is a big, strong forward who will rebound and play defense. Fits right in with Coach Thibodeau's philosophy. The European kid will develop across the pond and come over here and contribute later, much like Amir Oshik did for the bulls this year.


NBA draft 2011: Chicago Bulls get Nikola Mirotic with Rockets' 23rd pick, according to reports; draft Jimmy Butler with 30th pick - ESPN Chicago:


Butler could join the rotation immediately, while it could be years until Mirotic suits up for Tom Thibodeau's team.

Mirotic signed an extension with Real Madrid in late April that keeps him under contract until the 2015-16 season, according to the Spanish club's website.

These words must have bee like music to the ears of Coach Thibodeau and Bulls fans.

"'They just need somebody to go out there and guard,' Butler said. 'I'm telling you I'm going to make [Dwyane Wade], [LeBron James] work for every dribble, for every shot, for every step that they take. I'm gonna try to make it my hardest on them.'

In his first season with Real Madrid's senior club, the 6-10 Mirotic averaged 8.1 points per game in 29 league games and 6.6 in 20 Euroleague contests.

ESPN's Chad Ford rated Mirotic as the fifth-best small forward in this year's draft class.

'We're excited about what we accomplished, and with Jimmy Butler who we took with the 30th pick,' Forman told 'Chicago's Gamenight.' 'We think is a guy that's a real fit for us. Is a fit on the floor with the versatility he brings defensively and some of the things he can do offensively and is a real fit with our team off the floor. The type of makeup and character he has I think he'll fit in our locker room and with the culture we're creating. '"


REAL MADRID'S NIKOLA MIROTIC

JPMorgan Gets a Break Where Goldman Got Nailed: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg




JPMorgan Gets a Break Where Goldman Got Nailed: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg:

"Once again the Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a complaint against a too-big-to- fail bank that hinges on the meaning of one word: “selected.” Last year, the bank was Goldman Sachs, which the SEC accused of intentional fraud. This week, the defendant was JPMorgan, which got far easier treatment.
Why the different approaches? The agency isn’t saying. Judging by the allegations, both companies in essence did the same thing. Yet JPMorgan caught a break, and Goldman didn’t."

Chart of the Day - The Dow - priced in gold - at post-crisis lows




Chart of the Day - The Dow - priced in gold - at post-crisis lows:

For some perspective on the long-term performance of the stock market, today's chart presents the Dow priced in another global currency – gold (i.e. the Dow / gold ratio). For example, it currently takes less than a mere eight ounces of gold to 'buy the Dow' which is considerably less than the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. Priced in gold, the Dow has been in a massive 11-year bear market. Recently, the Dow (priced in gold) stopped declining for long enough to break above its six-year, accelerated downtrend channel. However, shortly after the break out, the Dow (priced in gold) pulled back to post-crisis lows.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Giants' Barry Zito raves about Triple-A catcher


Sanchez is regarded more for his prowess with the bat, but this endorsement of his defensive ability should help speed his arrival. He has hit -- Panda style -- at every level of development. Let's hope he continues the same trajectory as Sandoval moving forward.

Giants' Barry Zito raves about Triple-A catcher:

"Hector Sanchez, the organization's top prospect at the position, caught three of Zito's four rehab starts, and the left-hander raved about the 21-year-old Venezuelan. Zito said he would be comfortable throwing to Sanchez in a major-league game, an opinion that might carry significant weight as the front office decides whether to give the kid a shot.

'He's beyond his years,' Zito said. 'He's got a good idea on mixing pitches. We threw changeups to lefties and cutters in to righties. I definitely shook him, but I like the way he mixes and the way he receives the ball. The kid is so young, and he rakes' at the plate. He is hitting .299 with eight homers and 52 RBIs combined"

CARPE DIEM: Thanks to War on Drugs, U.S. is World's #1 Jailer


It is ridiculous in the Land of the Free, that we have this much of a spike in the number of people we have incarcerated, for whatever reason. Did human nature in this country all of a sudden change that significantly when this huge spike occurred?

THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE GUILTY UNTIL PROVEN INNOCENT, I GUESS.

CARPE DIEM: Thanks to War on Drugs, U.S. is World's #1 Jailer:

"But none of them even come close to the incarceration rate of the World's #1 Jailer - the United States, largely because of the 'War on Drugs' war against peaceful Americans using intoxicants currently not approved of by the U.S. government (see chart below).
 


Note that in the full list of countries, neighboring Canada ranks #124 (117 prisoners per 100,000), and countries with liberalized drug laws like Portugal rank #128 (112 per 100,000) and Netherlands ranks #145 (94 per 100,000).

Update: AIG claims that 'There is ZERO evidence that this greater number of prisoners in the U.S. is due to the war on drugs.'  Here is some evidence:"


1. "A major cause of such high numbers of prisoners in the United States system is that it has much longer sentences than any other part of the world. The typical mandatory sentence for a first-time drug offense in federal court is five or ten years, compared to other developed countries around the world where a first time offense would warrant at most 6 months in jail. Mandatory sentencing prohibits judges from using their discretion and forces them to place longer sentences on nonviolent offenses than they normally would have."

2. "One of the biggest contributors to the United States' spike is the war on drugs. Around 1980, the United States had 40,000 people in prison for drug crimes. After the passage of Reagan's Anti-Drug Abuse Act in 1986, incarceration for non-violent offenses dramatically increased. Part of the legislation included the implementation of mandatory minimum sentences for "the distribution of cocaine, including far more severe punishment for distribution of crack—associated with blacks—than powder cocaine, associated with whites."

Under the Anti-Drug Abuse Act, users of powder cocaine can possess up to 100 times more substance than users of crack, while facing the same mandatory sentence. The Anti-Drug Act targeted low-level street dealers, which had a disproportionate effect on poor blacks, Latinos, the young, and women.

The United States houses over 500,000 prisoners for these crimes. Ethan Nadelmann of the Drug Policy Alliance said, "We now imprison more people for drug law violations than all of Western Europe (with a much larger population) incarcerates for all offenses."

---

It's a rare day when I will be in agreement with former President Jimmy Carter, so we may as well celebrate the moment.



Call Off the Global Drug War
By JIMMY CARTER
Published: June 16, 2011


From the New Yoprk Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/opinion/17carter.html?_r=2

---

And just to show that politics does make for strange bedfellows, Ron Paul and Barney Frank are reaching across the aisle to push for some measure of a cease fire in the War on Drugs.

Lawmakers to introduce bill to legalize marijuana - Yahoo! News:

"The bill, which is expected to be introduced on Thursday by Republican Representative Ron Paul and Democratic Representative Barney Frank, would be the first ever legislation designed to end the federal ban on marijuana."

Three weeks ago a group of ex-presidents of Latin America as well as former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan denounced the failure of the global war on drugs and called for urgent changes, including the legalization of cannabis.
Between 1998 and 2008, worldwide consumption of opiates increased 35 percent, with cocaine use growing 27 percent and marijuana use growing 8.5 percent, according to the Global Commission on Drug Policy.
June marks the 40th anniversary of the "War on Drugs" launched by President Richard Nixon in 1970, the first major US anti-drug initiative.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Crazy Zito Trade Proposal - Zito for Soriano?




Crazy Zito Trade Proposal

I say do it. Both teams need what the other player brings and both players are badly in need of a change of scenery. Zito has been an innings eater, but watch his ERA soar when he goes from the cavernous ballpark he now calls home to Wrigley. And if that happens, they won't be calling it the "friendly confines" for very long. The same Cubs fans who blister the airwaves with calls complaining about Soriano will suddenly extol his virtues.

How about swapping Barry Zito for Alfonso Soriano?

Tom Hanks never made a sequel to “The Money Pit.” If he did, he could’ve called them, “The Sori Strikes Back” and “Return of the Zito.” There aren’t many contracts in baseball history that have been more widely panned, ridiculed, dissected and excoriated.

It's almost even on the "bad contract" swap side.

Soriano, 35, is making $18 million this year. Zito, 33, is making $18.5 million.

Next year: Soriano $18 million, Zito $19 million.

In 2013: Soriano $18 million, Zito $20 million.

And 2014: Soriano $18 million, Zito $7 million buyout. (Let’s leave aside the vesting option language for now, shall we?)

So assuming Zito gets the buyout in 2014, and prorating this year’s salaries, we’re looking at a difference of roughly $7.75 million between the two players. Given the longer time frame, that seems like a number the two sides could smooth out one way or another.

Sure, why not? You think the Cubs are that desperate to give away Big Z?

And while Brian Sabean and Jim Hendry are at it, might as well throw Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Rowand in the deal, too.

Trade Barry Zito Central:
http://www.tradebarryzito.com/

Monday, June 20, 2011

Chart of the Day - Corporate earnings near credit bubble highs

Chart of the Day - Corporate earnings near credit bubble highs:



One positive for the stock market has been the dramatic rise in earnings since early 2009. For some long-term perspective, today’s chart illustrates inflation-adjusted, as reported S&P 500 earnings since 1900. One period that stands out is the 92% plunge from the Q3 2007 peak to the Q1 2009 low which brought inflation-adjusted earnings to near Great Depression lows. Since its Q1 2009 low, S&P 500 earnings have surged (up over eleven-fold) and are currently fast approaching credit bubble peak levels. It is interesting to note that the only time that inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings have been higher than current levels was a relatively brief 18-month period from late 2006 to early 2008.


A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong — not taking the loss — that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul. -- Jesse Livermore in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

R.I.P. Big Man - Clarence Clemons (1942 - 2011)


Jungleland

From the churches to the jails
Tonight all is silence in the world....


He always seemed larger than life. He was the heart and soul of the E-Street Band and without a doubt belonged in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame with the rest of the band, before his death. A grievous error on the part of the R&RHOF voters. He left his mark on so many great songs, setting the mood with great versatility and range. Such a great loss.

I can listen to the Jungleland solo a thousand times more and it just never gets old. It was interesting to hear the story of the sixteen hours it took Clarence and Bruce to refine the three or four minutes of greatness we hear today. The price of greatness and perfecting your craft. Time well spent indeed.

He was such an integral and irreplaceable part of the band. I'm glad I was able to see them the last time they passed through the Midwest -- thanks to my wife -- and that I was able to take my son to see the greatest rock and roll band in history, while they were still intact.



Clarence Clemons showing origins of Jungleland

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Kaneland shuts down opponent’s stars - DailyHerald.com

Kaneland players pile on after winning the Class 3A title on Saturday. (Jeff Vorva/Tribune)

Congrats to Kaneland High School for winning the Illinois state 3A baseball championship.

I was fortunate enough to be involved with the program as a freshman baseball coach when we first moved to Illinois back in 2005 and you could see then that the program had all the ingredients to make such a run possible. All they lacked at the time was a prior history of winning, but the kids seemed enthusiastic about reversing the fortunes of the program from top to bottom.

Hard-working, high character, athletic, hard-working kids and enthusiastic, supportive, involved parents who are positive complements to the coaching staffs.

It was welcome news to see that the program was able to reach the mountain top.

KANELAND HIGH SCHOOL BASEBALL - 2011 ILLINOIS STATE 3A CHAMPIONS - CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL!!


Kaneland shuts down opponent’s stars - DailyHerald.com
:

"Frustrated? Sure, but that was nothing compared to what Oak Forest’s No. 3 hitter Tim Barry had to say Saturday. Barry, entering with his 12 home runs, went 1-for-4 with just a seventh-inning single.

“Very frustrating because every high school pitcher has to pitch around me because they are a bunch of babies,” Barry said. “They can’t test their abilities against a really good hitter, especially myself. A really good pitcher can pitch against a really good hitter no matter what.”

Babies? I think state champion is a better way to describe Kaneland pitchers Drew Peters and Kyle Davidson.

Or intelligent pitchers doing what needs to be done to win a game ... and doing it in high pressure situations like Barry’s first 2 at-bats.

Barry obviously was focused on the game Saturday and not all the IHSA “Add-A-Tude” commercials that kept flashing on the big scoreboard. Otherwise he would know it’s not good sportsmanship to call the pitchers that just beat you “babies,” and it’s not Kaneland’s job to give you more than “one fastball in my zone” — it’s Kaneland’s job to get you out and win the game."



Barry came up in both the first and third innings with two runners on base, and both times Peters retired him. First on a pop-up to second baseman Brian Dixon, the next time on a comebacker that Peters turned into a 1-6-3, inning-ending double play.

“I knew he was their big hitter,” Peters said. “I knew I had to be careful with him. I was pitching him low, outside. The ball moves a lot I guess, he couldn’t get quite on it. I got him out pretty easily but there were some other guys I couldn’t get out as easily. Overall it was great.”

Several teams have walked Barry intentionally this year. Kaneland went after him and it worked. Getting out of those early jams proved to be a momentum boost in the Knights’ 11-3 victory.
“We weren’t going to let him beat us,” Aversa said. “We handled him perfectly today. The park is big enough we had confidence in our guys. We’re going to challenge guys.”


Some of the comments cited above by the were quite interesting and I wonder if some of them had to do with the aftermath of the ML Draft. Barry, who was one of the more highly rated prospects in the state, amazingly went undrafted. It's possible he may have expressed a strong desire to go to college or was called on draft day and he could not come to terms with a ream or teams who expressed interest.

It is a shame that the timing of the event over shadows and effects both HS State Tournaments across the country and the College World Series in that kids have their focus shifted from their team's success to individual fortunes.

Overall, I think this years crop of local players were horribly undervalued by the draft and I'm not sure if the miserable weather that permeated the area for virtually the entire season hurt local prospects efforts to be seen by scouts under anything resembling near ideal baseball conditions.

New Trier OF Charlie Tilson, as expected was drafted early, #79 overall.
RHP Nick Burdi surprisingly lasted until #748. That's ridiculous!!
Barry as mentioned was not drafted. Ludicrous!!
SS Jake Junis (876) and RHP Joey Ceja (#1153) went way lower than expected.
RHP Nic Hibbing was selected #1262 and St. Charles East LHP Wes Benjamin was selected #1469.

Quite a few players who were equally well regarded locally were bypassed entirely. It was amazing how undervalued this years local crop was by TPTB.

I did a blog some time back (titled Baseball Hotbeds of Talent) detailing the importance of warm weather on the production of baseball players historically where we found a relatively high correlation (note below) between average state temperature and success in developing players, but the results of this years draft, specifically the shunning of local Illinois players, seemed a little over the top.

(note - a .5408 correlation which indicates that about 29.25% of the effect on a states ability to produce baseball players can be attributed to Temperature )

Baseball Hotbeds of Talent
http://slavieboy.blogspot.com/2010/07/baseball-hotbeds-of-talent.html

Baseball Players by State vs. Temps
http://www.scribd.com/doc/34586202/Baseball-Players-by-State-vs-Temps

Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.