Sunday, September 07, 2014

Baseball, JRWLL and the soft bigotry of low expectations




Generally speaking, in this country it is not identifying the problems we face that separates us as a country. We're pretty good at that part.  It is in finding the solutions where we begin to diverge.

Nothing illustrates this point more clearly to me than two recent stories from ESPN about the great success of the Jackie Robinson West Little League team and the related issue of the decades long decline of African-Americans playing baseball.

Nobody would disagree that when the numbers go from 27% to 19% to less than 8% in four decades that there is a current problem at play. Nobody would argue with the identification of that as a problem.

from ESPN:

"It's concerning," McClendon said. "Not just from a managerial standpoint but from a player standpoint, in what's happening with baseball in the inner cities. I think from all the conversations I've had, I know Major League Baseball is committed to bringing [it] back to the inner cities. I think from a philosophical standpoint we're missing some ideas that need to be in there."

The number of African-American players in the game is down to 7.8 percent. In 1995, African-Americans comprised of 19 percent of the big league rosters and in 1975 it was its highest at 27 percent.

'via Blog this'

After reading McClendon's comments as well as the following article about the Jackie Robinson Little League team my fear is that we will somehow once again run headlong into the morass of the soft bigotry of low expectations. When the facts on the ground seem to be telling such a different narrative. The facts are kind of funny like that. They tend to tell the truth. Others twist the facts to their liking, to suit an agenda or to fit with a narrative they've been clinging to. Follow the facts, the facts are your friends.

from ESPN:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/story/_/id/11418568/chicago-little-league-champs-return-heroes

While the words "South Side" are often shorthand beyond Chicago for gangs, shootings and poverty, the people who live here see a more nuanced picture.
 "These are middle-class families," said Jamieson Clay, a relative of Joshua Houston, the pitching and hitting hero of the U.S. championship game. "Ninety percent of the boys have both a mother and a father at home with them and the fathers are playing a pretty active role in their sons' lives."
 The team is built around a core of longtime baseball families, Clay said. Joshua Houston has older brothers who play high school and college baseball. His father is the team's pitching coach.
Of the Jackie Robinson West players who attend Chicago public schools, most attend magnet and charter schools, which indicates their parents made the effort to enroll them in special programs. One boy has two parents who are both Chicago police sergeants, while a second boy has a dad who is a Chicago police officer. Coach Darold Butler is a Union Pacific railroad engineer.
"The values of dignity, winning with grace, losing with grace, we can't take credit for that," Butler said. "Those come from their parents."


  • 90% of the boys have an intact family environment 
  • Most attend magnet and charter schools

Heaven forbid? Don't these kids and their families know that these are rather conservative, traditional values that the modern day narrative implies that  African-Americans should only embrace with the understanding that they will be referred to as an Uncle Tom / sell-out / or traitor to their race?

(or worse)
http://news.yahoo.com/high-school-girl-taunted-beaten-bus-stop-acting-035032786.html

After reading that article, if I didn't know any better. I would have thought these kids and their families fell right out of the The Cosby Show or Michael J. Fox's conservative Republican caricature Alex Keaton in Family Ties.   Not that there's anything wrong with that.



And if you are not quite sure what the phrase the soft bigotry of low expectations means, The Cosby Show provided the perfect illustration IMO. CLASSIC!!!

from mentalfloss.com:
http://mentalfloss.com/article/56559/20-things-you-might-not-know-about-cosby-show

4. COSBY WORRIED ABOUT THE STUDIO AUDIENCE'S REACTION TO THE PILOT

The Cosby Show's pilot was filmed in front of a live audience, and even though there were plenty of laughs where expected, Cosby was worried that the audience wasn’t embracing his overall vision of the series. In the scene where Theo is defending the “D” on his report card, he earnestly tells his dad, “If you weren't a doctor, I wouldn't love you less, because you're my dad. So rather than feeling disappointed because I'm not like you, maybe you should accept who I am and love me anyway, because I'm your son.”
What concerned Cosby about this scene was the spontaneous applause from the audience after Theo’s speech. Luckily the audience reacted even more enthusiastically when he replied with complete conviction, “That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my life!”
Perhaps the so-called Reverend Jesse Jackson will withhold his offer of a trip to Disney World and instead side-track the families to extensive re-programming and re-education. They obviously have not been understanding or embracing the indoctrination training that has been directed their way over the past few decades.

Perhaps there is a correlation between this and the decline in not only the numbers of baseball players from the African-American community, but in many more important socio-economic measures.

Back to the first article. Sorry Lloyd, as much as I love baseball, the community has some more important issues to address before they worry too much about the number of kids playing baseball. That pendulum will swing back a lot easier than some of the other more intractable societal problems that need to be addressed.

So whenever you get done sweating the details of declining numbers of A.A's in baseball, roll up your sleeves and help out with the other issues.

Just please, please, please don't forget to look at the facts. Just look at them. And understand the message they are sending. And don't fold, spindle and mutilate them. Otherwise, we miss a valuable opportunity to advance the ball down field and move forward. Instead of continuing to move backward. Unless the status quo and / or moving backwards is the goal. Then let's simply continue with the insanity of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Another opportunity, let's see if we squander it.


Here are some of the more important socio-economic issues I was referring to earlier. Again, I think if you take care of these issues, the issue of the number of African-Americans playing baseball will melt away by itself, or at the very least, it simply doesn't matter nearly as much in the grand scheme of things.

Perspective people, perspective.

The Slav's Baseball Blog - BASEBALL 24-7-365

The Slav's Blog about anything relating to the great game of baseball - and other less important issues from outside the diamond.

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Charts: The economic gap between blacks and whites hasn...
If anything, the wealth disparities have grown even wider since the recession.
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#7 In the United States today, 12 percent of white children live in areas of concentrated poverty, but Charts: The economic gap between blacks and whites hasn't budged for 50 years of African-American children do.#8 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 19.9 percent of white children live in single parent homes.  But for black children, the number is an astounding 52.1 percent.#9 Since 1960, the percentage of white American adults that are married has declined from 74 percent to 55 percent.  But for African-Americans the decline has been even more dramatic.  Since 1960, the percentage of black American adults that are married has declined from 61 percent to 31 percent.
#10 In the United States, the incarceration rate for black men is more than six times higher than it is for white men.
-----
 #1 For decades, the unemployment rate for black Americans has consistently been more than twice as high as the unemployment rate for white Americans.  In July 2014, the official unemployment rate for white Americans was 5.3 percent.  Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate for black Americans was 11.4 percent.#2 A report released earlier this year discovered that the "underemployment rate" for African-American workers was 20.5 percent.  But for white Americans it was only 11.8 percent.
#3 A study released back in 2012 found that the average white household has 22 times as much wealth as the average black household.
#4 African-American households make up only about 13 percent of the population, but they receive more than 26 percent of the food stamp benefits.
#5 One study discovered that 82 percent of white students graduate from high school but only 63.5 percent of black students do.
#6 Pew Research found that the income gap between white Americans and black Americans has continued to grow ever since the late 1960s...

....and down the stretch they come


The most exciting words in sports. In horse racing, it plays itself out in seconds. In baseball we have to wait a little longer, but things are beginning to shape up in both leagues. 

Since the big trade, the A's have actually lost ground to the Angels, but not enough that we are still not looking at a potential A's- Angels battle for a trip to the World Series. The A's are probably the most balance team in baseball, with the 3rd best offense and defense among the contenders. The Nationals would hold that title in the National League with the fifth best offense and the 2nd best defense. The other National League team are either decidedly one-dimensional or just not very good.  The Dodger might be setting up best for the NLCS battle with the Nats at this point, with the Giants needing to build some September momentum and home-field advantage throughout. 

For now it looks like Angels - Tigers and A's Orioles leading to an Angels - A's final, with the Angels advancing to the World Series. 

In the National, it shape sup as Nats - Giants and Dodgers - Cardinals leading to Nats - Dodgers with the Nats advancing to the World Series.  

With an Angels - National World Series, I would think the Angels would be pretty big favorites to win, unless pitching wins in the playoffs. The Angels would seem to have the advantage in terms of experience in general and playoff experience specifically. 

The leaders in terms of offense ( based on RS / G ): 
Tigers 4.68
Angels 4.64
A's 4.62
Orioles 4.36
Nationals 4.29

The offensive laggards are:
Braves 3.78
Cardinals 3.87
Mariners 4.00 

The Braves do not have the pitching to overcome this weak offense, even though they do have great pitching. The Cardinals are the only team still in it with a negative run-differential. If anyone can overcome that negative stat it's the Cardinals and it would have to be with superior pitching, it's just that they've had injuries there that will be tough to for them overcome. 

On the defensive side of the ball ( based on RA/G ):
Mariners 3.39
Nationals 3.51
A's 3.60
Braves 3.62
Dodgers and Giants 3.67

The defensive laggards are:
Tigers 4.32
Brewers 4.26
Pirates 4.07 

If pitching and defense rule in the playoffs, the Mariners and Braves have hope if the can get there. I'm just not sure they get there. Same for the Brew crew and the Pirates. The Giants and Dodgers are soooooo one dimensional but would make for a great NLCS finale. 

The Royals with a 4.09 RS/G and 3.96 RA/G are the most nondescript team still in in the hunt at this point, so I hope they don't make it simply because I would have no explanation as to how they got there. They did thump the Giants recently so I do know they can play and they are probably closest to the Tigers in terms of ability even if they lag them badly in terms of recent success. 

The Mariners would probably be the most scary party crashers with King Felix to carry them and the Cardinals or the Tigers the most likely to fold the tent early, but we shall see how it all plays out. 

Saturday, September 06, 2014

Jake Peavy on Barry Bonds

Jake Peavy gave Barry Bonds the ultimate courtesy

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Jake Peavy gave Barry Bonds the ultimate courtesy
In Barry Bonds' final big-league at-bat, he faced a current Giants pitcher. Bonds hit .242 in 33 at-bats off Peavy but had a .490 on-base percentage (13 walk...
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"I don't know about all the drug stuff. I can tell you this: He's the best player I played against or will play against. Mike Trout's trying to make an unbelievable case for himself. Barry Bonds changed the game more than anybody I've seen in 13 years. Of course he's a Hall of Famer."
And now he's on Twitter. 



New York Jets -- Michael Vick's greatest triumph in black and white - ESPN New York

Michael Vick
Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports

The proudest moment of Michael Vick's career didn't come on a football field.

from ESPN New York:
New York Jets -- Michael Vick's greatest triumph in black and white - ESPN New York:
"It's the best thing I've done as a professional athlete, absolutely," Vick said. "I handled it so my team could move forward, and I handled it so people could forget about it and not look at Riley a certain kind of way. I changed the whole dynamic of that situation, and that was a proud moment for me. ... I was able to save a young man's career, and that young man went on to have the greatest year of his career and get a contract that he probably never imagined he would get."
'via Blog this'

Speaking Words of Wisdom

image
The best sentence I read today....
.... is from WSJ editorial board member Jason Riley (author of the new book "Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make it Harder for Blacks to Succeed") in ...
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The best sentence I read today….

…. is from WSJ editorial board member Jason Riley (author of the new book "Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make it Harder for Blacks to Succeed") in response to the question"Isn't the rise of black political leadership, not the least of which is the election of the first black president for two terms, a sign of progress?"
The reality is that a black man in the home is much more important to black progress than a black man in the White House.



Thursday, September 04, 2014

Panik and Susac move from prospects to made men

Baseball America
Baseball America Prospect Report


It looks like these guys will be moving off the prospect list once and for all. They are officially "made" men.

SFMAJPanik, Joe 2B4220.3142B (7), BB (14)
SFMAJSusac, Andrew C5223.2882B (4), HR (3)

It's nice to see Susac show his stuff at the bat as I initially thought he was rushed up due to the need presented by the Sanchez concussion.  This was based entirely on my observation that Susac "only" had 836 minor league AB's  prior to his call up and the number of AB's other Giants prospects had prior to their call ups.

A cursory look at Baseball Reference data showed the following:
Posey 750 AB's (2008-10)
Sandoval 1818 AB's (2004-08)
Belt 922 PA (2010-11)
Crawford 1189 PA (2008-11)

Sandoval was an INTL signing and the other three were collegiate draftees. 

Some other blasts from the past:
Conor Gillaspie 2223 PA's - College
Nick Noonan 3000 PA's - HS
Kieschnick 2000 PA's - College
Culberson 2900 PA's - HS
Jackson Williams 2000 PA's - College
Wendell Fairley 1600 PA's - HS
Burris 920 PA's 
Freddie Lewis 2727 PA's
Schierholtz 2428 PA's
Gary Brown 2500 PA's - College

Of the recent Giants call-ups:
Joe Panik 1620 AB's
Adam Duvall 1883 AB's
Matt Duffy 942 AB's
Andrew Susac 836 AB's

It seems like for prospects, the organization would seem to know what it has somewhere around the 1,000 AB mark for college hitters and around the 1,500 - 2,000 AB's for a HS hitter. This makes sense intuitively since the HS hitters is making his first 1,000 AB's in the minors. I don't want to get pinned down to a definitive marker and get yelled at and ridiculed like Erricson and the 10,000 Hour Rule, but as a rough rule of thumb, this seems to be the line in the sand that organizations employ. This takes into consideration that some guys are rushed due to organizational need (due to injury or performance) and some guys are blocked at a certain position and their stay in the minors is, in effect, over-extended. I still feel that Gillaspie was blocked in this way with the Giants, but Oh well.

An issue for further study. Here is another story that looks into the issue somewhat as well.
--
from the Hardball Times:
The historic risk of Manny Machado’s promotion – The Hardball Times:
Machado was promoted to the majors after just 928 minor league plate appearances. There have been just six other first-round picks since 1997 who were drafted as position players out of high school and were called up to the majors with fewer than 1,200 plate appearances. Only one of these had fewer plate appearances than Machado.

Cameron Maybin (830)
Justin Upton (957)
Jason Heyward (1010)
Corey Patterson (1015)
Josh Hamilton (1148)
Joe Mauer (1177)

Hamilton had some extenuating circumstances, and was ultimately 26 years old when he made his major league debut, so let’s take him out of this discussion. With the exception of Mauer and Upton, this list is a collection of promise that has thus far gone unfulfilled, and even Upton has had hiccups in two of his five full major league seasons.
...

While minor league numbers often mean little when it comes to gauging a prospect’s potential, I’m a big proponent of allowing a player to dominate a level before moving on so that he gets a taste of what it takes to truly succeed, especially when that player has such an ability to do so. Too often, organizations are willing to play the “young for his level” card to upgrade an average performance in their own eyes.
Heyward is the most recent example of the possible pitfalls of a rushed prospect. Much like Upton and Mauer, he dominated the minor leagues, posting a .968 OPS in his final season, including a 1.057 mark in a half-season in Double-A. In his rookie season in 2010, Heyward looked like one of the few who could handle the limited developmental time, making an all-star team and finishing with an OPS+ of 131.
But the major leagues are unkind. Since then, Heyward has hit .248/.331/.433 and an OPS+ of 106, despite a nice job rebounding this season. He’s just 22, and I still believe Heyward will be a star, but his 2011 season should serve as a warning flag for those teams who believe prospects are ready without significant time in the upper minors.
'via Blog this'

And then, the only piece of expert evidence is from John Farrell, where he doesn’t really comment on the point, but implies that the gap between AAA and the majors is wider in bigger markets. Yet plenty of the prospects mentioned as under-performing were in small markets.
Here’s the concluding paragraph:
Too many at-bats in Triple-A is not going to stunt a player’s development, as seen with Andrew McCutchen. Calling up a player too soon, however, has the potential to have serious ramifications years down the road. As the 2014 rookie class clearly demonstrates, the recent trend of accelerated development clearly has not yielded the immediate success at the major league level they are designed to generate.
1. McCutchen, as the article even indicates, actually represents a bit of a departure from the prospect development of stars. Here’s another quote:
Among the notable successes in this class of prospects was Jay Bruce (405 PA), Evan Longoria (158 PA), Jacoby Ellsbury (400 PA), Andrew McCutchen (881 PA), Jason Heyward (13 PA) and Carlos Gonzalez (237 PA).
Now, it’s true, this doesn’t necessarily disprove the point that excess time in AAA can stunt growth. But that’s also not demonstrated by the article. Excess time in AAA didn’t stunt McCutchen’s growth. One data point is hardly generalizable.
2. “Calling up a player too soon, however, has the potential to have serious ramifications years down the road.” This was never really proven by the article, and is a strong, strong statement.
3. “As the 2014 rookie class clearly demonstrates, the recent trend of accelerated development clearly has not yielded the immediate success at the major league level they are designed to generate.” I would be fine with this, but there’s no real indication that there was any grand “design” in place, at least in the absence of some reasonable understanding of either the outside expectations or, more difficult to ascertain, the internal expectations. In other words, this could be true, but isn’t sufficiently proven, either.

Monday, September 01, 2014

Giants Sending Seven to Arizona Fall League


This is an interesting group for the Giants.

Carbonell is currently in High-A and quickly showing the hit tool he needs to advance at that level. If he performs well here in Arizona it would not be too surprising to see him open next year in AA ball.

from Bleacher Report:
Giants Sending Seven to Arizona Fall League:
The Giants will send seven players to the Arizona Fall League this year, all of them intriguing in their own unique, snowflakey way. The list:
  • Clayton Blackburn
  • Steven Okert
  • Erik Cordier
  • Hunter Strickland
  • Daniel Carbonell
  • Matt Duffy
  • Blake Miller
We talked about Cordier, Strickland, and Carbonell over over here while talking about potential September call-ups. I'm not sure how their AFL selections affect their chances of joining the Giants in September, but it hasn't hurt players in the past.
'via Blog this'

Matt Duffy needs the work against advanced pitching and can provide the type of versatility that should give him plenty of AB's down there.

Blake Miller, like Duffy is possibly a bigger, stronger utility IF type with a good bat. At 6-3, 195 you'd like to see more power, especially given the K-rate, but .300 hitters don't come around very often. Miller has shown the hit tool in AA and is another collegiate bat so it's nearing put up or shut up time for him as well IMO.

Clayton Blackburn and Hunter Strickland are the highest impact guys among the pitchers. Blackburn needs the work as he will likely not get any September big-league starts. Strickland at least may get some opportunities to assist at the big league level.

Okert and Cordier also show potential to be solid bullpen contributors. Okert shows a bit more polish and Cordier more stuff.



Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.