Thursday, December 03, 2009

Handicapping the Heisman




Early returns and projections are starting to flow in for the 75th Heisman Trophy to be awarded Saturday, December 12th.

Based on my observations, and admittedly I vote more with my heart than with my head here, I would vote:

1. Tim Tebow
2. Case Keenum
3. Colt McCoy
4. Toby Gerhart
5. Andy Dalton
6. Mark Ingram

Sam Bradford would have been in there of course if not for his shoulder injury. Tebow and McCoy statistically are similar and they are burdened by comparisons to their prior season of greatness. Tebow has more impact on his team as well as college football at large and may slip in with a "lifetime achievement" award sentiment. I would have no problem with that whatsoever. Keenum and Gerhart are hurt by lack of national exposure from the beginning of the season on. It's tough for a candidate to make a late-season, Cinderella like charge to the finish. No doubt it would have been a more interesting vote with Bradford in the mix, given that both he and Tebow would be vying for two-time winner status.

The numbers based on some other observers methodology. The stiff arm trophy site uses methodology featured in a Wall Street Journal - Numbers Guy article that we featured a couple of years back. They have a pretty good track record predicting the winner. But you never know until the announcement is made.
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According to scippsnews.com
http://www.scrippsnews.com/content/colt-mccoy-texas-grabs-lead-shns-heisman-poll

Heisman ballots are due on Monday with the 75th winner to be announced Saturday, Dec. 12, in New York City.

This week's poll, with statistics from last week.

Player, Position, School, Last Week, Points.

1. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas, 24-of-40, 304 yards passing, 4 TDs, 175 yards rushing, TD run. 43 (5).

2. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida, 17-of-21, 221 yards passing, 3 TDs, 90 yards rushing, 2 TD runs, 30 (3).

3. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford, 29 carries, 205 yards, 3 TD runs, threw 18-yard TD pass, 29 (2).

4. Case Keenum, QB, Houston, 25-of-31, 323 yards passing, 2 TDs, TD run, 15.

5. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama, 16 carries, 30 yards, 14.

Others receiving votes: Boise State QB Kellen Moore 6; Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, 2; TCU QB Andy Dalton 2; TCU DE Jerry Hughes, 1; Missouri WR Danario Alexander 1.

(Scripps Howard News Service Heisman Trophy poll voters: Kirk Bohls, Austin (Texas) American-Statesman; Jimmy Burch, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Dennis Dodd, CBSSports.com; Vahe Gregorian, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Mike Griffith, The Knoxville (Tenn.) News-Sentinel; Michael Lewis, Salt Lake Tribune; Bob Condotta, Seattle Times; John Lindsay, Scripps Howard News Service; Tom Luicci, The (Newark) Star-Ledger; John Rohde, The Oklahoman.)

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According to The StiffArmTrophy.com website
http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/

Last updated: 12/2/2009, 11:02 p.m. Pacific. 10 ballots, 23 votes.

name first second third ballots points Projected Proj%
T Gerhart 1 0 3 4 6 1062 38.2%
C McCoy 3 2 1 6 14 710 25.6%
T Tebow 2 2 1 5 11 515 18.5%
N Suh 1 1 0 2 5 77 2.8%
D Alexander 0 0 1 1 1 37 1.3%
CJ Spiller 0 1 1 2 3 31 1.1%
M Ingram 0 0 2 2 2 30 1.1%
M Gilyard 0 0 1 1 1 29 1.0%
K Moore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
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Giants Top Minor League Prospects

  • 1. Joey Bart 6-2, 215 C Power arm and a power bat, playing a premium defensive position. Good catch and throw skills.
  • 2. Heliot Ramos 6-2, 185 OF Potential high-ceiling player the Giants have been looking for. Great bat speed, early returns were impressive.
  • 3. Chris Shaw 6-3. 230 1B Lefty power bat, limited defensively to 1B, Matt Adams comp?
  • 4. Tyler Beede 6-4, 215 RHP from Vanderbilt projects as top of the rotation starter when he works out his command/control issues. When he misses, he misses by a bunch.
  • 5. Stephen Duggar 6-1, 170 CF Another toolsy, under-achieving OF in the Gary Brown mold, hoping for better results.
  • 6. Sandro Fabian 6-0, 180 OF Dominican signee from 2014, shows some pop in his bat. Below average arm and lack of speed should push him towards LF.
  • 7. Aramis Garcia 6-2, 220 C from Florida INTL projects as a good bat behind the dish with enough defensive skill to play there long-term
  • 8. Heath Quinn 6-2, 190 OF Strong hitter, makes contact with improving approach at the plate. Returns from hamate bone injury.
  • 9. Garrett Williams 6-1, 205 LHP Former Oklahoma standout, Giants prototype, low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
  • 10. Shaun Anderson 6-4, 225 RHP Large frame, 3.36 K/BB rate. Can start or relieve
  • 11. Jacob Gonzalez 6-3, 190 3B Good pedigree, impressive bat for HS prospect.
  • 12. Seth Corry 6-2 195 LHP Highly regard HS pick. Was mentioned as possible chip in high profile trades.
  • 13. C.J. Hinojosa 5-10, 175 SS Scrappy IF prospect in the mold of Kelby Tomlinson, just gets it done.
  • 14. Garett Cave 6-4, 200 RHP He misses a lot of bats and at times, the plate. 13 K/9 an 5 B/9. Wild thing.

2019 MLB Draft - Top HS Draft Prospects

  • 1. Bobby Witt, Jr. 6-1,185 SS Colleyville Heritage HS (TX) Oklahoma commit. Outstanding defensive SS who can hit. 6.4 speed in 60 yd. Touched 97 on mound. Son of former major leaguer. Five tool potential.
  • 2. Riley Greene 6-2, 190 OF Haggerty HS (FL) Florida commit.Best HS hitting prospect. LH bat with good eye, plate discipline and developing power.
  • 3. C.J. Abrams 6-2, 180 SS Blessed Trinity HS (GA) High-ceiling athlete. 70 speed with plus arm. Hitting needs to develop as he matures. Alabama commit.
  • 4. Reece Hinds 6-4, 210 SS Niceville HS (FL) Power bat, committed to LSU. Plus arm, solid enough bat to move to 3B down the road. 98MPH arm.
  • 5. Daniel Espino 6-3, 200 RHP Georgia Premier Academy (GA) LSU commit. Touches 98 on FB with wipe out SL.

2019 MLB Draft - Top College Draft Prospects

  • 1. Adley Rutschman C Oregon State Plus defender with great arm. Excellent receiver plus a switch hitter with some pop in the bat.
  • 2. Shea Langliers C Baylor Excelent throw and catch skills with good pop time. Quick bat, uses all fields approach with some pop.
  • 3. Zack Thompson 6-2 LHP Kentucky Missed time with an elbow issue. FB up to 95 with plenty of secondary stuff.
  • 4. Matt Wallner 6-5 OF Southern Miss Run producing bat plus mid to upper 90's FB closer. Power bat from the left side, athletic for size.
  • 5. Nick Lodolo LHP TCU Tall LHP, 95MPH FB and solid breaking stuff.