I hear the argument that the SABR metric oriented crowd makes that this was a horrifically bad contract or investment on the part of the Giants and I have to chuckle a bit. If WAR is the only valid measuring stick, then certainly and without a doubt, NOT a good deal.
But if you had told me when Barry Zito signed with the Giants prior to the 2007 season that by the end of the deal the Giants would have TWO world series championships, I would have to say, also without a doubt, this would be a great deal and a fantastic return on investment.
Now granted, the Giants did NOT win two World Series championships entirely due to the efforts of Barry Zito, but it would be foolish to minimize the contributions he made and the benefits he brought to the table. Some of which are very difficult to quantify.
Remember, this was a franchise that was transitioning from an offensive oriented, Barry Bonds led team to a defensive minded, pitching oriented team. Zito's stature and contract allowed a Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner to develop under a lower level of scrutiny than if mega-bucks Barry were not around to brutalize. He allowed those guys to develop while flying under the radar.
The team was also making the transition from a veteran oriented, Felipe Alou led team to a younger Bruce Bochy led squad.
Would Giants management and fans have preferred that the Barry Zito of 2007-10 produce more than 40 wins? Absolutely.
Did the 3 win record posted in 2011, almost seal the deal among fans that this was an epically bad signing? Absolutely.
Did the rebound in 2012 balance the scales of being left off the playoff roster in 2010? In a sense, I think it did. Some will say, the Giants won without Zito in 2010 because of this, dismissing ANY of his contributions to get them to the first championship. In fairness, you then have to acknowledge that you don't have the second championship without Zito.
On balance, the Zito era in San Francisco is in my opinion an unqualified success and is an almost heroic path that I can only liken to the path that NY football Giants fans took with a QB by the name of Phil Simms.
There were high initial hopes that were dashed for various reasons, some due to injury, some just lack of productivity. Eventually with Simms and the Giants, two Super Bowls were won. One of those titles the Giants won with Simms on the DL and a backup finishing the work that Simms started. So, like Zito, some fans will retroactively short-change the accomplishments of Simms to validate their prior bashing by saying, "well, he really only won one title, Jeff Hostettler won the other one". I think I could have QB'd that team after they started something like 10-0. It was a credit to the confidence they had built WITH Simms at the helm that they were able to win it all in spite of losing their leader heading towards the playoffs. Fans who wanted to at one time run both of these perceived bums out of town, are eventually rewarded by basking in the glow of two trips to the sports mountain top. And fans and media pundits are left to re-jigger their prior missives about said bums and re-write history. There are many more Giants fans who will say they supported Simms all along then there actually were.
I have to admit that I did not fully support sticking with Barry Zito as much as I did earlier with Phil Simms, but in both cases, I'm glad the respective organizations DID stick with them. All of the ex-post facto analysis and hand wringing of why the organizations were wrong but things somehow worked out right notwithstanding, I unequivocally salute Barry Zito for all the strength and perseverance he has demonstrated personally and which he brought to the Giants. To me, his contributions are immeasurable. Going forward, I would challenge the SABR crowd to find a metric that would adequately measure those qualities. Then we might really have something of value to discuss.
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