Rick Reilly: Why Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles can't escape the rumors - ESPN

Rick Reilly is much less emotional about the issue when the subject is not named Barry Lamar Bonds.

from ESPN.com
Rick Reilly: Why Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles can't escape the rumors - ESPN:

Take, for instance, Chris "Crush" Davis, the Baltimore Orioles first baseman who's suddenly hitting like he was bitten by a radioactive spider. He has 31 home runs. That's two fewer than his career best, and it's not even the All-Star break. Entering Wednesday, he's hitting .329. That's 59 points higher than his lifetime average. He's on pace to double his best RBI season.

And in a contract year, no less.

So say it with me: "It's gotta be the steroids."

 Davis can explain everything, of course. He says he went from Bernie Williams to Ted Williams because "I'm just making more consistent contact," he says. Also, he switched to a bigger bat.

 And he fixed a couple of holes in his swing.

 But this is a guy who's spent most of his career bouncing from the bushes to the bigs. In fact, in four seasons of facing Triple-A pitching, he hit only 54 home runs. Now, in one major league season, he's on pace to hit 62? That must be some new bat.

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Perhaps Mr. Reilly has never read noted prognosticator and SABR-guru Nate Silver's article on the subject titled "What Do Statistics Tell Us About Steroids", where he comes to four conclusions regarding the issue.

1. In baseball, unexplained change in performance are the norm not the exception: once you control for park and league effects, "power spike" in which established veterans have increased their HR rates by at least 10 HR's per 650 plate appearances have been fairly consistent across eras. ( see Chris Davis and Joey Bats in Toronto ) 

2. Relatively few players are steroid users... Even if testing is catching only a fraction of users, it seems that >50% estimates are inaccurate. 

3. Marginal players are more inclined than star performers to use steroids. ( see players implicated in the most recent HGH scandal, there will be some headliners and a lot of guys named Joe )  

4. The average performance improvement from steroid use is detectable, but small: Silver estimates an average effect of 10 points to BA, OBP and SLG for position players and statistically insignificant gains for a pitcher

I agree with Silver on most of these points, although I think the effect on average and slugging may be slightly higher. The main benefit I think PED's gave to players and is still giving today is a greater recovery which leads to a greater ability to stay on the the field and enhance career statistics ( higher longevity ).

Sort of a Performance Enhanced Super-DH rule.