Thursday, June 11, 2015

American Pharoah vs. Secretariat Who would Win? (Are you serious?)


http://on.wsj.com/1T803p2

http://www.wsj.com/video/american-pharoah-vs-secretariat-who-would-win/513B9634-15E8-4108-B3F7-DEB54AF09F4B.html

American Pharoah vs. Secretariat: Who Would Win?

6/8/2015 6:51PM     

The 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ran the sixth-fastest Belmont Stakes ever, but if he were racing against Secretariat’s record time in 1973, he would have been a distant second. Watch the two races side-by-side.


I don't want to take anything away from Pharoah, he's the champ, but let's not suffer from "Recency Bias" here, OK? This isn't even close to the LBJ vs. Michael Jordan debate, where I could at least make a decent case for either one, (i.e. it's a toss-up). 

Don't compare ANY horse yet to the great Secretariat. It's no contest. 

Secretariat would have left Pharoah panting down the back stretch just like he did Sham, who was a great horse in HIS own right. Don't forget, Sham finished second in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, which means he might have been a Triple Crown winner himself except for having the bad timing of being born the same year as Secretariat. 

This biographical sketch describes what happened when a great horse tried to go one-on-one with Secretariat. It wasn't pretty.

from Wikipedia.org

The 105th running of the Belmont Stakes, June 9, 1973[edit]

Main article: 1973 Belmont Stakes
Under orders, Pincay was to keep Sham with Secretariat from the start. Sham was on the outside throughout, which cost an insignificant amount of endurance more than Secretariat on the rail. This strategy worked through the first turn and into the backstretch as Secretariat and Sham led the field and then pulled away by a half-dozen lengths with Sham taking a brief lead at several points. After about half a mile, a third of the way through the race, Secretariat increased his pace and pulled ahead rapidly as Sham began to tire, and fell back. With Pincay easing back to protect the exhausted horse, Sham ultimately finished last as Secretariat pulled away to a win recorded at 31 lengths. The time of 2:24 flat remains a world record for 11⁄2 miles on a dirt track.

Anytime you can bring up the name Secretariat, it's a good day. Watching that Belmont race that day, my jaw just dropped to the floor. Alongside the "Miracle on Ice" easily the two greatest events I have EVER seen in sports. As many times as I've seen each one replayed, I still get emotional and awed at the brilliance that was on display. 

So of course, enjoy what American Pharoah did, but just don't embarrass him or yourself by making the comparison to Secretariat. He will come up short every time, just like Sham did. 

 That might be a more apt comparison Pharoah vs. Sham, or if you want another Triple Crown winner, perhaps the last prior TC winner, Affirmed. Just not Secretariat, please.

I hear people parsing the stats and making the case based on "Well, Pharoah ran the last half of the race in a better time". Stop it, just stop it!!! Secretariat is not even being challenged by the 3/4 mark and is just breezing into the finish. He could have stopped for a cigarette and still won the race. Pharoah was being challenged. 

And do the math for me. He's down 3.61 seconds at the 3/4 mark and closes it down to 2.65 by the finish? So he needs maybe another 3 - 3/4 mile segments to catch him, maybe another 2 1/4 miles, another race and a half? And you want to base a comparison on that? PLEASE!!


from USA Today:
American Pharoah became the first horse since Affirmed to win the Triple Crown last Saturday at the Belmont Stakes, but American Pharoah’s final time around the 1.5-mile track was a full two seconds behind the record set by Secretariat in 1973. The Wall Street Journal made this amazing side-by-side video to show Secretariat against American Pharoah, and the race was over by the 1/4-mile mark.

1/4-mile

American Pharoah: 24.06
Secretariat: 23.6

1/2-mile

American Pharoah: 48.83
Secretariat: 46.2

3/4-mile

American Pharoah: 1:13.41
Secretariat: 1:09.8

1-mile

American Pharoah: 2:02.33
Secretariat: 1:59

Finish

American Pharoah: 2:26.65
Secretariat: 2:24
Dave Pickoff/AP
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